Global Correction

[lannarebirth]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration is proposing the biggest overhaul of financial regulation since the Great Depression. The sweeping plan is already drawing intense criticism -- a debate unlikely to be settled until a new president takes office.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080331/fed_overhaul.html

One quote : "The Paulson plan, which the administration has been working on for a year, calls for the eventual creation of three regulatory agencies."

And another one : "The 200-page document".

One year ago, only a few blogers were speaking about the coming financial crisis... All the "experts" were in denial...

Like with 9/11, when the gvt took out of his pocket new security laws... now, in full crisis, like the magic rabbit, they have ready a plan for the "biggest overhaul of financial regulation".

Talk about opportunity !

And talk about... CONTROL. More control. Always. Their only motto.

I was just reading about this chap: Paul Krugman...very interesting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman#Biography

And he wrote, today, March 31, 2008:

"You now understand the principle behind the Bush administration's new proposal for financial reform, which will be formally announced today: it's all about creating the appearance of responding to the current crisis, without actually doing anything substantive.

The financial events of the last seven months, and especially the past few weeks, have convinced all but a few diehards that the U.S. financial system needs major reform. Otherwise, we'll lurch from crisis to crisis — and the crises will get bigger and bigger.

The rescue of Bear Stearns, in particular, was a paradigm-changing event."

From a MUST-READ article in The New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/opinion/...amp;oref=slogin

LaoPo

I'm well familiar with Paul Krugman. He's a sometimes right, sometimes wrong, zero responsibility for outcome, partisan economist. I disagree with his latest op-ed also. If the Fed is granted these wide new powers it will hyave most of the finacial firms that operate on the periphery of Wall Street quaking in their boots. The Fed takes care of the Fed and it's member banks first. They also seem to have a long memory and hold grudges. I'm in favor of this latest move as I believe the Fed has real credibility. I don't always agree with their actions, but I do believe they believe their actions are for the general well being of the economy.

Edited March 31, 2008 by lannarebirth

[bingobongo]

Bear market in Chinese stocks implies that a significant economic slowdown will start to make itself felt in China.

nice dump from high of 6000 to around 3500 in shanghai in span of 6 months

Edited March 31, 2008 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

Bear market in Chinese stocks implies that a significant economic slowdown will start to make itself felt in China.

nice dump from high of 6000 to around 3500 in shanghai in span of 6 months

I mentioned that 4 days ago:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895091

In the meantime the Composite Index hit a critical point of 3357 last Friday and later recovered to 3580. Yesterday it went down again to 3472 when it lost -3%.

Strange enough world markets didn't pay any notice of a -more than- -40% drop in the past 5 months. If Shanghai drops further and break through the support line, Western markets WILL react...and not to an upside.

We'll see what happens today.

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

Bear market in Chinese stocks implies that a significant economic slowdown will start to make itself felt in China.

nice dump from high of 6000 to around 3500 in shanghai in span of 6 months

I mentioned that 4 days ago:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895091

In the meantime the Composite Index hit a critical point of 3357 last Friday and later recovered to 3580. Yesterday it went down again to 3472 when it lost -3%.

Strange enough world markets didn't pay any notice of a -more than- -40% drop in the past 5 months. If Shanghai drops further and break through the support line, Western markets WILL react...and not to an upside.

We'll see what happens today.

LaoPo

I got out of my China investments ealy January and got back a couple weeks ago. At one point I was up roughly 300% in three years and when I finally sold I was still up almost 200%. The big drop wasn't a surpride to anyone- hence not much is being said. probably hasn't bottomed out, but I'm betting it is close.

[lannarebirth]

Bear market in Chinese stocks implies that a significant economic slowdown will start to make itself felt in China.

nice dump from high of 6000 to around 3500 in shanghai in span of 6 months

I mentioned that 4 days ago:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895091

In the meantime the Composite Index hit a critical point of 3357 last Friday and later recovered to 3580. Yesterday it went down again to 3472 when it lost -3%.

Strange enough world markets didn't pay any notice of a -more than- -40% drop in the past 5 months. If Shanghai drops further and break through the support line, Western markets WILL react...and not to an upside.

We'll see what happens today.

LaoPo

I got out of my China investments ealy January and got back a couple weeks ago. At one point I was up roughly 300% in three years and when I finally sold I was still up almost 200%. The big drop wasn't a surpride to anyone- hence not much is being said. probably hasn't bottomed out, but I'm betting it is close.

I'd guess it's within 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom.

[Naam]

I'd guess it's within 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom.

i wish i'd master that foreign language LRB writes

[siamamerican]

Bear market in Chinese stocks implies that a significant economic slowdown will start to make itself felt in China.

nice dump from high of 6000 to around 3500 in shanghai in span of 6 months

I mentioned that 4 days ago:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895091

In the meantime the Composite Index hit a critical point of 3357 last Friday and later recovered to 3580. Yesterday it went down again to 3472 when it lost -3%.

Strange enough world markets didn't pay any notice of a -more than- -40% drop in the past 5 months. If Shanghai drops further and break through the support line, Western markets WILL react...and not to an upside.

We'll see what happens today.

LaoPo

I got out of my China investments ealy January and got back a couple weeks ago. At one point I was up roughly 300% in three years and when I finally sold I was still up almost 200%. The big drop wasn't a surpride to anyone- hence not much is being said. probably hasn't bottomed out, but I'm betting it is close.

I'd guess it's within 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom.

That would put it at where it was at 5 years ago. Little extreme! It could happen, but what's is your reasoning.

[lannarebirth]

I'd guess it's within 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom.

i wish i'd master that foreign language LRB writes

Hi Dr,

Basically I'm talking about ST,IT,LT and VLTcycles. ST meaning short term (daily charts), IT meaning intermediate term (weekly charts), LT meaning long term(monthly charts) and VLT meaning very long term (quarterly charts). Almost everything that trades has some kind of cyclicality. It is not always easy to identify and it often changes. Sometimes one cycle will be going up while another is going down, but when cycles of varying lengths align in the same direction, very powerful moves take place.

I haven't done any cycle work on the $SSEC , but here's 2 charts of the same index showing it is getting oversold in one timeframe but not in another, longer time frame. Probably a good trading bounce coming soon after whatever bad news is coming is reported:

[LaoPo]

I recall, Lannarebirth, that we were discussing where the Shanghai Composite Index would end, eventually. I think we talked somewhere around 2200/2300, is that correct ? (can't find it).

Anyway, your 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom would be:

20% >>> 2.662

40% >>> 1,997

The latter is extreme though, but not impossible.

The Index went down another -4.134% today...to 3.329 and crossed the support line.

The Shanghai Composite Index is now down -45.4% from it's peak on Oct 16th, 2007 of 6.094; that's 5 1/2 months ago.

The question is: when are the Western markets going to react....? They did before when Shanghai dived 7 or 8%, but this time the drop went by and nothing happened.

Maybe the Western markets are already at the bottom

But I don't think so.

LaoPo

Edited April 1, 2008 by LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

I recall, Lannarebirth, that we were discussing where the Shanghai Composite Index would end, eventually. I think we talked somewhere around 2200/2300, is that correct ? (can't find it).

I think I said 1800ish, but that it could take a long while to get there.

Anyway, your 20% of an intermediate term bottom and 40% of a long term bottom would be:

20% >>> 2.662

40% >>> 1,997

The latter is extreme though, but not impossible.

Just using round numbers (percent). For me time is as important as price in a correction and it is the most widely ignored aspect by the majority. For instance, if a market or stock is at exactly the same price level that it was many years ago, to my way of thinking it has been correcting.

The Index went down another -4.134% today...to 3.329 and crossed the support line.

The Shanghai Composite Index is now down -45.4% from it's peak on Oct 16th, 2007 of 6.094; that's 5 1/2 months ago.

The question is: when are the Western markets going to react....? They did before when Shanghai dived 7 or 8%, but this time the drop went by and nothing happened.

I'm not sure why western markets would care, save for commodities related stocks. I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of the companies listed on the Chinese bourse were gone in 20 years. Looks like a nice trading vehicle though.

Maybe the Western markets are already at the bottom

Maybe.

But I don't think so.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

"I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of the companies listed on the Chinese bourse were gone in 20 years"

Could very well be.

Many stocks in Western markets are taken off the bourses as well. It's a normal process.

There are even big worries on some of the smaller stock markets in the EU that the # of companies is decreasing all the time; on top of that the climate for new IPO's isn't that positive at the moment.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

terrible pain is coming globally once the olympics are over (yes that includes LOS)........

China's Misery Index

The Chinese Shanghai stock market index fell 34% (not annualized) in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter (see chart below). Couple this with the "official" consumer inflation rate of 8.7% and you have the makings of some potentially surly Olympic hosts if things don't improve by August. You also have the makings of much slower Chinese GDP growth.

[LaoPo]

terrible pain is coming globally once the olympics are over (yes that includes LOS)........

China's Misery Index

The Chinese Shanghai stock market index fell 34% (not annualized) in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter (see chart below). Couple this with the "official" consumer inflation rate of 8.7% and you have the makings of some potentially surly Olympic hosts if things don't improve by August. You also have the makings of much slower Chinese GDP growth.

1. it's good the overheated stock markets in China released some hot air. A high number of the estimated 150 Million private investors walked away already. It's hard to tell how many lost money and how many made profits. It depends when they entered the market; if they did AFTER October '07 they surely lost. But most of those 150 Million (I estimate 100 Million) were 'in' already before Sept last year. The question is: did they step out (partly) or not....?

2. inflation is indeed a big problem but for the largest part due to food prices; not that it makes the problem smaller.

3. Chinese growth is slowing indeed and projected at 9.4 - 9.6% but nobody knows for sure; still high figures though.

4. IF, just IF, the US tumbles into recession, Chinese growth will decline further and the rest of the world will feel the pain too.

LaoPo

[david96]

It would be interesting to know the long term economic plans that China has for the world.China is a communist country and is using Capitaliism to suit its own ends. It is also investing heavily in overseas resourses, oil, gas, minerals. I could be a threat to world peace in the next 30 years.

On the other hand will Chinas economy implode? It has a command economy. Can it contain civil unrest within its borders in the near future?

Any TV members views?

[david96]

One could look at history.

Germany 1870/1914/1939.

Japan 1905/1931/1941

USSR From 1945 attempted to dominate US and allies but was defeated by its own economic incompetence and policies.

China 21st Century? And we should not underestimate Russia either. Pakistan and India which side will they take?

Economics and politics are connected, war is an extension of politics by other means when all else fails.

Edited April 3, 2008 by david96

[LaoPo]

It would be interesting to know the long term economic plans that China has for the world.China is a communist country and is using Capitalism to suit its own ends. It is also investing heavily in overseas resourses, oil, gas, minerals. I could be a threat to world peace in the next 30 years.

On the other hand will Chinas economy implode? It has a command economy. Can it contain civil unrest within its borders in the near future?

Any TV members views?

Yes.

China is always thinking long term. It has to.

I am coming on and off in China for the past 30 years and have watched the enormous mind boggling changes. Having traveled to many countries there is no country on earth I have been to which is alike China, not in number of people and not in the progress it has gone through in a mere 20-25 years.

It is simply u n b e l i e v a b l e !

It is absolutely stunning. I have also discussed with many Chinese as well as Westerners the progress of democracy in China and it IS in progress but many in the West complain. The Chinese however do not complain and I am talking the majority; when I see millions and millions of people in the streets, working, laughing, busy, eating and enjoying I see happy and kind people but also well dressed people. Much better than 10, 20 or 30 years ago.

I remember a visit to a university in Xiamen when I came into the 'room' of a student; that was 19 years ago. He had 1 pair of shorts, 1 T-shirt, flip-flops, 1 toothbrush+paste and that was it. There was a light-bulb on the ceiling and a mattress on the floor. That was it...

It took many western countries more than 100 years to achieve the democratic system that is now in place but still westerners and western governments demand even faster progress of democracy in China. Why don't we allow them a bit more time ?

Of course China is investing and looking in overseas countries trying to get hold of oil, gas, minerals, commodities and the like. It's strange that some people see that as a threat but find it very normal if other Western countries do the same.

Could the economy implode or collapse...? Well, it will certainly face a lot of problems and stagnation of the enormous growth. It is a normal process in an economy which grew so fast...too fast.

Contain civil unrest ? Yes but not without problems. China is an enormous country with many ethnic groups who speak many languages (although Mandarin is now an obligatory language in every school, next to hundreds of dialects) and have many different cultures.

Basically: China wants what the West has already since 50, 60, 70 years....Cars, luxury goods, good housing, good food, a good job, and a nice family.

The difference is the huge population and culture and all those Westerners, complaining, never had the experience to run such a country...

Nobody.

LaoPo

[david96]

Maybe it is time the world including Australia has a reduction in its growth rate eg from 4% to 3%. To much emphasis is on "growth rates", a country can survive on growth rates of 1% for a long time, tighten up on loans and borrowing and cut our imports to balance our exports within 2% or less.

[VegasVic]

It would be interesting to know the long term economic plans that China has for the world.China is a communist country and is using Capitaliism to suit its own ends. It is also investing heavily in overseas resourses, oil, gas, minerals. I could be a threat to world peace in the next 30 years.

On the other hand will Chinas economy implode? It has a command economy. Can it contain civil unrest within its borders in the near future?

Any TV members views?

The Shanghai exchange bounced off an important suport level (3300) the past few days, but if the U.S. does slip into a recession (even a mild one) that support level will be broken and you could very well see a rapid decline of 1000 points or more. This decline while painfull for many will prove to be a very good thing in the long run for China and its markets as long as they can lose the 800 lb. gorilla in the room (the centralized communist government) that you recognized as Chinas main problem in its future. As the old commies die or get pushed out and some form of democracy comes to China, then China will have to deal with things like unionization, risining wages and human rights, when this occurs we will see just how competitive China really is when there is something closer to a level playing field Because free market capitalisim and communisim are like oil and water, if the communists do hold on and prosper then Chinas capitalistic experiment could very well come tumbling down, whichever scenario unfolds one thing is for certain and that is Chinas future will have more than its share of volitility going forward.

[LaoPo]

It would be interesting to know the long term economic plans that China has for the world.China is a communist country and is using Capitaliism to suit its own ends. It is also investing heavily in overseas resourses, oil, gas, minerals. I could be a threat to world peace in the next 30 years.

On the other hand will Chinas economy implode? It has a command economy. Can it contain civil unrest within its borders in the near future?

Any TV members views?

The Shanghai exchange bounced off an important suport level (3300) the past few days, but if the U.S. does slip into a recession (even a mild one) that support level will be broken and you could very well see a rapid decline of 1000 points or more. This decline while painfull for many will prove to be a very good thing in the long run for China and its markets as long as they can lose the 800 lb. gorilla in the room (the centralized communist government) that you recognized as Chinas main problem in its future. As the old commies die or get pushed out and some form of democracy comes to China, then China will have to deal with things like unionization, risining wages and human rights, when this occurs we will see just how competitive China really is when there is something closer to a level playing field Because free market capitalisim and communisim are like oil and water, if the communists do hold on and prosper then Chinas capitalistic experiment could very well come tumbling down, whichever scenario unfolds one thing is for certain and that is Chinas future will have more than its share of volitility going forward.

I wrote about that in detail, complete with facts, on March 27th Vic and your words look exactly like mine:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1895091

and again on April 1, 2008 (not a joke on April Fools day.. ) here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1903698

Your view on China is as far from reality as 'your' 800 lb Gorilla in your living room; there isn't one I hope, for your own sake...!? Your view on China shows you've never been there.

However:

If America finally ends up in a smaller or bigger recession and some, like Mr. Buffett, say it's already IN a recession (but who am I to believe him?), it's is obvious that the rest of the world, including your beloved China, will face serious problems also.

Not just China but also Japan, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Russia, South America, Europe, Australia and NZ and all the others. The whole bluddy world has to pay the price and I'm talking 6.6 Billion people Vic, not just 300 million in the US.

No doubt about that and it's good to clean up the beds and cheating, criminal Banks and Mortgage Institutions once in a while; let's put those criminals in jail, where ever they are, the US or Europe, I don't care

And, the FED, Bernanke and the like should stop using taxpayers' money to support sick financial institutions and let the market do it's job. If a company is sick it should either be helped by a financial Wizzard doctor or die....not 'injected' with the people's money.

You can't cure sick companies, who are in that situation because of shrewd and criminal CEO's in the first place, with Aspirins.

The government/FED doesn't help other giants like Coca Cola, GM, Ford, Walmart, Microsoft, Boeing also if they are in trouble; if they are in trouble it's Chapter 11 or over and out. Simple as that.

The aspirins they just gave to Bear Stearns/JPMorgan are just aspirins; they didn't cure the CAUSE of the sickness......

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

terrible pain is coming globally once the olympics are over (yes that includes LOS)........

China's Misery Index

The Chinese Shanghai stock market index fell 34% (not annualized) in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter (see chart below). Couple this with the "official" consumer inflation rate of 8.7% and you have the makings of some potentially surly Olympic hosts if things don't improve by August. You also have the makings of much slower Chinese GDP growth.

I invested more money in China than any other country the 2 years prior to January 2007. Most the news you heard was positive during this period and I made nearly 200% on my money. Did I think it was going to continue - NO! I got out in January and got back in 1 month ago when everybody was, like yourself, was talking about a Chinese failures.

* 34% drop is an issue for panick investers. If you held chinese investments for a year or two, you are doing just fine.

* Chinese slower GDP growth - I thought that is what many investers and the government was asking for. The economy was overheating and still is growing at an incredible rate.

[LaoPo]

terrible pain is coming globally once the olympics are over (yes that includes LOS)........

China's Misery Index

The Chinese Shanghai stock market index fell 34% (not annualized) in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter (see chart below). Couple this with the "official" consumer inflation rate of 8.7% and you have the makings of some potentially surly Olympic hosts if things don't improve by August. You also have the makings of much slower Chinese GDP growth.

I invested more money in China than any other country the 2 years prior to January 2007. Most the news you heard was positive during this period and I made nearly 200% on my money. Did I think it was going to continue - NO! I got out in January and got back in 1 month ago when everybody was, like yourself, was talking about a Chinese failures.

* 34% drop is an issue for panick investers. If you held chinese investments for a year or two, you are doing just fine.

* Chinese slower GDP growth - I thought that is what many investers and the government was asking for. The economy was overheating and still is growing at an incredible rate.

You mean you invested in US or HK (co)-listed Mainland Chinese shares, not IN China, unless you're a Chinese from the mainland. Just meant to be correct.

A small memory-chart for the interested reader:

Shanghai Composite Index

source: Bloomberg/New York Times

Free advice : if you stepped in 1 month ago (again)..be careful; VERY careful !

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

After having built more than 5 Million houses* in the past 10 years, "the credit shortage is filtering through to Spain".

Spanish Property Auction Flop Brings Down Gavel on Housing Boom

By Ariadna Carbonell and Ben Sills

Excerpts:

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thanks to Spain's slumping property market, house buyers are as popular as movie stars -- and they can cause even more excitement.

Reporters outnumbered bidders as lot No. 1 hit the slate in Europe's first ``Dutch auction'' for real estate last weekend in Madrid. Of 216 lots, 194 were withdrawn when they weren't purchased at the reserve price. One man, investor Manuel Sainz, bought almost half of everything sold.

``Next stop Hollywood!'' laughed Sainz, head of property company Las Terrazas de San Blas SA, as he fought off the press after buying 10 properties at discounts of as much as 30 percent.

The event shows the depth of Spain's housing bust after prices tripled in the past decade. In January, the government's housing policy director, Rafael Pacheco, called the slowdown ``moderate and orderly'' after January sales volume fell 27 percent from a year earlier as the global credit shortage forced banks to reduce lending.

&

In January, mortgage lending in Spain fell 28 percent from a year earlier, according to the government statistics office. House prices rose 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since 1998.

``Clients are having problems with financing,'' said Eustaquio Moleon, head of Moleon Construcciones, a family construction business in Granada, southern Spain. ``Right now you have to try anything.''

With Spain facing the slowest economic expansion in 15 years, even a 30 percent price cut wasn't enough to persuade most buyers that they were getting a bargain at the Madrid auction.

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=exclusive

* In a country with just 40 million people but with more than 50 million tourists per year. A large number of foreigners live in Spain or either have a second house there.

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

You mean you invested in US or HK (co)-listed Mainland Chinese shares, not IN China, unless you're a Chinese from the mainland. Just meant to be correct.

A small memory-chart for the interested reader:

Shanghai Composite Index

source: Bloomberg/New York Times

Free advice : if you stepped in 1 month ago (again)..be careful; VERY careful !

LaoPo

No, I meant what I said. I invested in mainland Chinese stocks. Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks, is investing in China. Also, you mentioned before you spent some time in China and probably know of other alternatives to investing through HK. Many investors invest through mainland contacts. This isn’t legal I assume and don’t think the risk is worth the reward.

Not bad advice in regards to being careful. Definitely, not stocks to own if you can't handle the volatility and the risk of losing a good sum of money.

Currently, I own FXI and over the last month it has done very well. The stocks in this ETF are large and liquid and have done better than other Chinese stocks.

Edited April 6, 2008 by siamamerican

[LaoPo]

You mean you invested in US or HK (co)-listed Mainland Chinese shares, not IN China, unless you're a Chinese from the mainland. Just meant to be correct.

A small memory-chart for the interested reader:

Shanghai Composite Index

source: Bloomberg/New York Times

Free advice : if you stepped in 1 month ago (again)..be careful; VERY careful !

LaoPo

No, I meant what I said.

I invested in mainland Chinese stocks. Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks, is investing in China.

Also, you mentioned before you spent some time in China and probably know of other alternatives to investing through HK.

Many investors invest through mainland contacts. This isn’t legal I assume and don’t think the risk is worth the reward.

"Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks"; do you mean the H-shares ?

There's still a difference in prices between HK listed and Shanghai listed H-shares, (I'm talking the SAME shares from the same companies) although most have come quite close now and the money was mostly flowing from (Government controlled money) China into HK and not the way around. Private Chinese people can not invest on the HK market, yet. They can however buy shares, in US $; they can buy $'s first, open a $ account and invest in those stocks. ALL this within China; not outside !

Yes, I know China pretty well and I also know that I can NOT play on the stock market myself, apart from the fact that it's very sophisticated computer program can't be read and followed by me -in Chinese you know- but my wife can and does have her own investments. It's easy to transfer money into China from abroad. To bring your money OUT of China (profits for instance) is another chapter and a completely different piece of cake.

If you deliver your money into the hands of strangers and they play, via some HK contacts, on the mainland stock markets, with your money, that's up to you.

Not me; the mainland rules can change overnight and everything could be frozen...bye-bye money. We are seeing fragile days....

I'm curious however how it is so easy for you to invest IN China on the stock market and get your profits out.... Come on....whisper in my ear

I'm not too old yet to learn something new, despite the fact I'm coming to HK and China already some 30 years now.

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

"Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks"; do you mean the H-shares ?

There's still a difference in prices between HK listed and Shanghai listed H-shares, (I'm talking the SAME shares from the same companies) although most have come quite close now and the money was mostly flowing from (Government controlled money) China into HK and not the way around. Private Chinese people can not invest on the HK market, yet. They can however buy shares, in US $; they can buy $'s first, open a $ account and invest in those stocks. ALL this within China; not outside !

Yes, I know China pretty well and I also know that I can NOT play on the stock market myself, apart from the fact that it's very sophisticated computer program can't be read and followed by me -in Chinese you know- but my wife can and does have her own investments. It's easy to transfer money into China from abroad. To bring your money OUT of China (profits for instance) is another chapter and a completely different piece of cake.

If you deliver your money into the hands of strangers and they play, via some HK contacts, on the mainland stock markets, with your money, that's up to you.

Not me; the mainland rules can change overnight and everything could be frozen...bye-bye money. We are seeing fragile days....

I'm curious however how it is so easy for you to invest IN China on the stock market and get your profits out.... Come on....whisper in my ear

I'm not too old yet to learn something new, despite the fact I'm coming to HK and China already some 30 years now.

LaoPo

Yes, I mean H shares. I was using your words from the previous post; “Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks”. Thought you would have an easier time understanding your own explanation.

As for stating it is easy to take money out of China, stop being condescending - you might end up looking foolish. If you read my post, void of copy and pasting, you would have read that I thought the risk was greater than the reward (not easy!).

Edited April 6, 2008 by siamamerican

[LaoPo]

Yes, I mean H shares. I was using your words from the previous post; “Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks”. Thought you would have an easier time understanding your own explanation.

As for stating it is easy to take money out of China, stop being condescending - you might end up looking foolish. If you read my post, void of copy and pasting, you would have read that I thought the risk was greater than the reward (not easy!).

It seems difficult for you to behave like a gentleman, isn't it ?

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

Yes, I mean H shares. I was using your words from the previous post; “Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks”. Thought you would have an easier time understanding your own explanation.

As for stating it is easy to take money out of China, stop being condescending - you might end up looking foolish. If you read my post, void of copy and pasting, you would have read that I thought the risk was greater than the reward (not easy!).

It seems difficult for you to behave like a gentleman, isn't it ?

LaoPo

Now, now - your rolling eye, huh, and tongue sticking images in your post were gentleman like?

What I was upset about was the misrepresentation of my post. I never claimed it was easy to take profits out of China if you invested through mainland contacts. I stated the opposite. Your condescending post was far off base.

We can have different opinions, but we can strive to be honest. Fare play and honest debates are entertaining. I've made many posts where everybody had a good laugh at my expense. I can admit I'm wrong and I've done so on this forum and others have also conceded to my point of view. You can look through my past posts ( if you’re bored ) and you will find posts where I've admitted my error in logic.

How about replying to my arguments with or without name calling. A good start would be the rational for claiming I stated it was easy to take profits out of China.

Edited April 6, 2008 by siamamerican

[VegasVic]

Yes, I mean H shares. I was using your words from the previous post; “Investing in China through HK co-listed stocks”. Thought you would have an easier time understanding your own explanation.

As for stating it is easy to take money out of China, stop being condescending - you might end up looking foolish. If you read my post, void of copy and pasting, you would have read that I thought the risk was greater than the reward (not easy!).

It seems difficult for you to behave like a gentleman, isn't it ?

LaoPo

Now, now - your rolling eye, huh, and tongue sticking images in your post were gentleman like?

What I was upset about was the misrepresentation of my post. I never claimed it was easy to take profits out of China if you invested through mainland contacts. I stated the opposite. Your condescending post was far off base.

We can have different opinions, but we can strive to be honest. Fare play and honest debates are entertaining. I've made many posts where everybody had a good laugh at my expense. I can admit I'm wrong and I've done so on this forum and others have also conceded to my point of view. You can look through my past posts ( if you’re bored ) and you will find posts where I've admitted my error in logic.

How about replying to my arguments with or without name calling. A good start would be the rational for claiming I stated it was easy to take profits out of China.

Sadly "Lord Po" has a difficult time striving to be honest when someone has a differing view from his own. He regularly takes lines from prior posts (and news articles) out of context and yet puts others down for doing the same thing. China has one very dangerous aspect to it, and that of course is the centralized communist government. If the Olympics blow up (has anyone followed all the protests along the torch route and the many attempts to extinguish the torch) and China has its economic fall from grace afterwards, then who knows what the communist government is capable of, they could just freeze all markets, foriegn assets and investments for a time until they can work things out . Hopefully nothing so drastic will occur, but the first speed bump in the chinese capitalistic experiment will be coming up sooner or later!

[LaoPo]

LaoPo

[david96]

The great advantage of the political system in China is they do not have to explain to their people what they do unlike western democracies, the interests of the communist party and its members / connections is all that matters in China.

China thinks long term, the West from election to election, or year by year, in other words short term.

Remember there are 1.3 billion people in China, the west only sees the wealthy 10%. The West only wants to see what it wants to see, how much money we can make out of China. The West may be in for a rude awakening some time soon.

On the Olympic games, the IOC is a corrupt organisation IMHO.