Global Correction

[Firefan]

He,he! Pkrv; just wait until the "Firefan's Reverse BingoBongo Newsletter" comes out! Cheers!

[dotcom]

I think I'll buy some short ETF's like SKF QID or SDS.

[dotcom]

Vietnam recently hiked interest rates from 12% to 14%.

Ergo 10% below the rate of inflation. Then to compound their mistake they banned the import of gold.

Well done chappies.

So I guess the dong is headed for 100,000 per 1 USD. LMFAO.

[LaoPo]

Todays' world financial and economical news looks grim...very grim:

1. U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

2. U.S. stocks sink; GM shares sink nearly 11%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...Market+Snapshot

3. Oil Surges Above $140 to Record as Libya Warns of Output Cut

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

4. European Stocks Drop; Fortis, Carrefour, Adidas Lead Decline; Fortis dropped almost -20% !

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Contrary to the previous news, a better optimistic view here:

Marc Faber* Says Commodities Will Fall in Second Half

By Tim Culpan

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities face a ``correction'' after a seven-year rally, which will help ease global inflation, investor Marc Faber said.

``Commodity prices will come down in the next six months to one year,'' Faber, publisher of investment newsletter the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, said at a briefing in Taipei today. Commodity prices will resume their gains after the correction, he said, with demand for oil doubling in the next 12 years.

Faber said Taiwan equities will outperform global stocks, while China ``is not yet a buying opportunity.'' Taiwan's Taiex Index has dropped the least among Asian benchmark indexes this year and China's CSI 300 Index has slumped 44 percent.

Prices of commodities from oil to wheat have continued to surge in 2008 due to floods in Southeast Asia and the U.S. and demand from India and China. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a measure of commodity futures prices including wheat, copper and oil, has climbed 26 percent this year. Crude oil futures have doubled in the past 12 months.

``Some inflation pressures will abate'' as commodity prices decline, said Faber. ``It doesn't mean I am bearish about commodities. I think commodity bull markets will last'' about 20 years, he said.

``Corporate profits in China will by and large disappoint as well as in India, so overall I am not very optimistic about these markets,'' he said.

World's Worst

China's CSI 300 has tumbled the most in 2008 among benchmark indexes from the world's 20 biggest equity markets, as the central bank took action to curtail rising consumer prices. India's benchmark Sensex index has dropped 29 percent this year.

U.S. equities could `` outperform markets like China and India'' after underperforming in the past four years, Faber said. Japanese stocks may also beat peers, he said.

Faber said he's negative about the dollar in the long term, though the U.S. currency may ``strengthen somewhat'' in the short term.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, has fallen 5 percent this year to 72.904 points at yesterday's close in New York. The index hit an historical low of 70.698 points on March 17.

Faber also said he prefers Taiwanese to U.S. technology companies, although the outlook for the industry is ``bad.''

---Bloomberg/Asia

* Marc Faber is the publisher of the GloomBoomDoom report :

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/portalgbd/homegbd.cfm

LaoPo

[LivinLOS]

Are you guys still argueing this ???

Dow is under where we started the millenium... S&P also.. Housing in freefall.. Inflation raging.. Which one of the predictions is anyone disputing ??

Buy and hold sheeple !!!

[bingobongo]

yawn, what have we learned folks other than Naam hates me (not that I care)

global bourses are swooning, once the Beijing olympics are over and we move into autumn, it is over

here is a tip....support on the DOW is 11203, if that fails next stop is 10750 and the rest of the markets will follow

since this is LOS, support isn't until 725-730, so dont buy now, buy later

Edited June 27, 2008 by bingobongo

[cclub75]

yawn, what have we learned folks other than Naam hates me (not that I care)

global bourses are swooning, once the Beijing olympics are over and we move into autumn, it is over

here is a tip....support on the DOW is 11203, if that fails next stop is 10750 and the rest of the markets will follow

since this is LOS, support isn't until 725-730, so dont buy now, buy later

Indeed BB... we are... almost victorious.

The rozy brigade, the old ladies club, the tea party and small biscuit lovers... well... the checkmate is around the corner.

Allez guys, you wouldn't refuse a another cup of tea (perfume "LSD") ?

It's your faith : deny, deny, deny even after the end.

[pkrv]

yawn, what have we learned folks other than Naam hates me (not that I care)

global bourses are swooning, once the Beijing olympics are over and we move into autumn, it is over

here is a tip....support on the DOW is 11203, if that fails next stop is 10750 and the rest of the markets will follow

since this is LOS, support isn't until 725-730, so dont buy now, buy later

Bonkers you really should learn to read

i don't hate poor frustrated boys Bingo. i pity them

Money cannot be destroyed it simply moves. BTW ALL USD are actually held in the US so if you have a Swiss bank account in USD guess what they are held in the US - Clever bunch the Americans. Additionally the two great 'FX transactional Engines' EBS and Dealing 3000 Matching are also based in the US. Odd that isn't it?

During the great depression the US introduced something like 5 'unique techniques' to manage sever difficulties. If and when they are introduced that will be time to panic. For the rest of us, we have already diversified - oddly to Thailand. Right or wrong decision? Using inverse bonkers logic - Right!

Edited June 27, 2008 by pkrv

[midas]

Are you guys still argueing this ???

Dow is under where we started the millenium... S&P also.. Housing in freefall.. Inflation raging.. Which one of the predictions is anyone disputing ??

Buy and hold sheeple !!!

Yes indeed and this is happening when oil is only $140 per barrell !

What will the state of play be later this year when it probably will

reach $200 ++ ?

[Bizz]

Euro to dip against dollar 4 quarter possibly -33%

[AnnyLing]

Euro to dip against dollar 4 quarter possibly -33%

Isnt that stuff illegal what you are smoking or snuffing?

[pkrv]

Euro to dip against dollar 4 quarter possibly -33%

Isnt that stuff illegal what you are smoking or snuffing?

I don't generally get involved in predictions - but in this case I think it is an injection that was administered.

What was the source for this 'informantion'?

[AFKAFSinLOS]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish. Trying to time SET market is always difficult. However, fundamentally it's undervalued. Just a matter of when it rises... Political issues come up time to time here as anyone who knows and lives here. Anyone who can afford to buy and hold is on to a nice little earner.

As for the myth about China crumbling after the Olympics that's also rubbish. Olympics are being held in only a handful of Chinese cities, which themselves account for under 10% of China's GDP. So unless you believe ALL the GDP for these cities comes from the Olympics it's likely to have little downside impact that the Olympics have been and gone. The impact on China from the Olympics is likely to be much more pronounced in the socio-political arena than it is on the economic side.

Anyone actually based in China, rather than having their head stuck up their arse, will actually have noticed that a lot of work their in construction etc has already stopped. Migrant workers have already been packed off back where they came from. Why? because China are having a big clean up to make the place look nice to show to the world before the event. So if anything it is alreadier quieter now, and once the Olympics are over the migrant workers will be back, so there will be a small pick up in economic activity. Small because the Olympics only affects a few cities as mentioned.

But then again let's not let facts get in the way...

Edited June 27, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[midas]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish. Trying to time SET market is always difficult. However, fundamentally it's undervalued. Just a matter of when it rises... Political issues come up time to time here as anyone who knows and lives here. Anyone who can afford to buy and hold is on to a nice little earner.

As for the myth about China crumbling after the Olympics that's also rubbish. Olympics are being held in only a handful of Chinese cities, which themselves account for under 10% of China's GDP. So unless you believe ALL the GDP for these cities comes from the Olympics it's likely to have little downside impact that the Olympics have been and gone. The impact on China from the Olympics is likely to be much more pronounced in the socio-political arena than it is on the economic side.

Anyone actually based in China, rather than having their head stuck up their arse, will actually have noticed that a lot of work their in construction etc has already stopped. Migrant workers have already been packed off back where they came from. Why? because China are having a big clean up to make the place look nice to show to the world before the event. So if anything it is alreadier quieter now, and once the Olympics are over the migrant workers will be back, so there will be a small pick up in economic activity. Small because the Olympics only affects a few cities as mentioned.

But then again let's not let facts get in the way...

AFKAFSinLOS assures us that have our " heads stuck up our arsees " there is no need to

worry ! Should i believe this assurance ( backed up with no facts ! ) or pay

attention to the growing tide of economic indicators that point to hard times ahead !

Unbelievably arrogant AFKAFSinLOS !

[pkrv]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish. Trying to time SET market is always difficult. However, fundamentally it's undervalued. Just a matter of when it rises... Political issues come up time to time here as anyone who knows and lives here. Anyone who can afford to buy and hold is on to a nice little earner.

As for the myth about China crumbling after the Olympics that's also rubbish. Olympics are being held in only a handful of Chinese cities, which themselves account for under 10% of China's GDP. So unless you believe ALL the GDP for these cities comes from the Olympics it's likely to have little downside impact that the Olympics have been and gone. The impact on China from the Olympics is likely to be much more pronounced in the socio-political arena than it is on the economic side.

Anyone actually based in China, rather than having their head stuck up their arse, will actually have noticed that a lot of work their in construction etc has already stopped. Migrant workers have already been packed off back where they came from. Why? because China are having a big clean up to make the place look nice to show to the world before the event. So if anything it is alreadier quieter now, and once the Olympics are over the migrant workers will be back, so there will be a small pick up in economic activity. Small because the Olympics only affects a few cities as mentioned.

But then again let's not let facts get in the way...

Actually I found this a very funny post - It reminded me of a story - On one trip to OZ I was told of a UK based couple who insisted on driving from Sidney to Brisbane - Their hosts looked at them incredulously and tried to dissuade them. When that prooved impossible they were simply advised of an airstrip in the middle of nowhere. Somehow I think one of the reasons for the commercial success of that airstrip was to deal with bonkers people with little understanding of how big the world actually is.

[LaoPo]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish.

The SET reached a low of 741 and closed 742 last week Thursday 19th after opening at 760. In January the SET had a low of 728; ANYTHING is possible, never mind the SET is undervalued.

What's undervalued in these days ?

LaoPo

[AFKAFSinLOS]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish.

The SET reached a low of 741 and closed 742 last week Thursday 19th after opening at 760. In January the SET had a low of 728; ANYTHING is possible, never mind the SET is undervalued.

What's undervalued in these days ?

LaoPo

If you disagree the SET is undervalued that's fine. I would say it is based on fundamentals, eg earnings ratios, lowest PE in region, similar or higher GDP growth expected in 2008 to 2007, while market is down 10%- ish YTD. Analysts forecasts if you believe them are still well in XS of 900 for y/e etc etc. Please tell me why you think overvalued, apart from temporary loss in confidence.

As for the quote. Mr.Bingo quoted the SET on 27June. Not the dates you mentioned. On 27 June the SET opened at 773. So unless you're living with him on planet Bingo, any chartist will tell you there was and support in the 60's for that day. Hence it is rubbish to say next support level is only in 720's. Again please feel free to show me a chart you have the says why there is no support in the 60's, when the rest of the world believes there is.

[lannarebirth]

Long Term support 760ish, IT support 750ish. Gap at 519, Fib level at 517. Charts contain glaring negative divergances. If it overcomes the divergances and makes new highs, very bullish. It's a traders market, not an investors market.

SET Weekly:

SET Monthly:

[AFKAFSinLOS]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish. Trying to time SET market is always difficult. However, fundamentally it's undervalued. Just a matter of when it rises... Political issues come up time to time here as anyone who knows and lives here. Anyone who can afford to buy and hold is on to a nice little earner.

As for the myth about China crumbling after the Olympics that's also rubbish. Olympics are being held in only a handful of Chinese cities, which themselves account for under 10% of China's GDP. So unless you believe ALL the GDP for these cities comes from the Olympics it's likely to have little downside impact that the Olympics have been and gone. The impact on China from the Olympics is likely to be much more pronounced in the socio-political arena than it is on the economic side.

Anyone actually based in China, rather than having their head stuck up their arse, will actually have noticed that a lot of work their in construction etc has already stopped. Migrant workers have already been packed off back where they came from. Why? because China are having a big clean up to make the place look nice to show to the world before the event. So if anything it is alreadier quieter now, and once the Olympics are over the migrant workers will be back, so there will be a small pick up in economic activity. Small because the Olympics only affects a few cities as mentioned.

But then again let's not let facts get in the way...

AFKAFSinLOS assures us that have our " heads stuck up our arsees " there is no need to

worry ! Should i believe this assurance ( backed up with no facts ! ) or pay

attention to the growing tide of economic indicators that point to hard times ahead !

Unbelievably arrogant AFKAFSinLOS !

Feel free to reread and get the point second time. Whether you think there is a need to worry or not is one call. Whether you think there are tough times ahead again is your call. There are some challenging times ahead, and on that you are right.

The point I was making is that anyone believing that the Olympics is holding China together, and this massive country is dangling on a single thread called the Olympics has their head up their arse. China is a MASSIVE place. The Olympics is very small in terms of impact on it. China has been growing around 10% for the last 20 odd years. That won't stop just because they've held the Olympics. The Olympics are being held in 4 main places, accounting in total for less than 10% of China's entire GDP. To put into context, even if you assume everyone in those cities is there purely for the olympics, and otherwise wouldn't exist it's still small! Personally I believe Beijing was there before the Olympics, and will be again afterwards...Then again perhaps you're also on planet Bongo.

Or as pkrv puts it maybe those people thinking the Olympics will drag down China are the same ones driving around those funny roads in Australia

Please feel free to research China's economy, the size of it, and how small the Olympics are relatively. A few quotes, from one of the first articles I came across after a 10 second Google, which anyone taking their head from their nether regions could also do:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6432037.html

The Chinese economy was set to grow healthily and steadily after the summer Olympic Games and a post-Olmypic economic downturn was highly unlikely, a noted Chinese economist said Tuesday.

"Personally I feel very optimistic that the Chinese economy after the Beijing Olympics will continue to grow rapidly and healthily.... I am full of confidence over the economy after the Olympics," said Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute at the China Reform Foundation.

...

Over the past several months, the Chinese government had taken a series of micro-economic control measures to cool down the economy, which was seen by many economists as overheated.

"Our growth rate has dropped, exports decreased and the foreign trade surplus has declined. We cooled down the stock market and real estate market," Fan said, adding that the adjustment period was drawing towards an end since the government had taken many measures.

"Such adjustment and micro-economic control measures certainly reduce possibilities of a post-Olympic downturn," said Fan, who was also a member of the Monetary Policy Committee under the People's Bank of China, the central bank.

He also said Beijing's investment to build sports venues and other infrastructure, though worth billions of dollars, accounted for a mere three percent of the country's total investment in fixed assets.

"China is a big country. Beijing is small.... Even if Beijing's investment in infrastructure drop sharply after the Games, it would not have a significant impact on the whole economy," he said.

Fan also said it was unlikely that Beijing would slash fixed assets investment since the city was still at the early stage of economic development and its appetite for infrastructure would still be huge after the Olympics.

"The fact is, over the past several years, Beijing has been forced to reduce some other infrastructure projects in order to concentrate on the construction of sports venues," he said.

History has shown that some countries were plagued by a post-Olympic economic downturn, or called "Valley Effect" or "V-low Effect".

The phenomenon was mainly caused by a dramatic investment increase at the pre-Olympic stage, accompanied by a boom in consumption and revenues. But the investment and consumption plunged following the Olympics while the host city would have to shoulder the heavy burden of maintaining idle sports venues.

Fan, however, cautioned that the Chinese economy might still face new challenges, domestically and globally, and needed further policy adjustment in September or October or even later this year.

"China is economically a developing country under transition. The economy has its own problems," he said.

On the other side, he said the Chinese economy would face a new international economic situation -- the U.S. credit crisis was still far from over and its negative impact was still coming out and prices for oil and grain were continuing to rise on the international market.

"But these have nothing to do with the Olympic Games.... Hosting of the Games will push forward economic development in China by helping restructure industries and integrate the Chinese economy into the global market," he added.

Source:Xinhua

Edited June 28, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[AFKAFSinLOS]

Long Term support 760ish, IT support 750ish. Gap at 519, Fib level at 517. Charts contain glaring negative divergances. If it overcomes the divergances and makes new highs, very bullish. It's a traders market, not an investors market.

SET Weekly:

SET Monthly:

Thanks for posting those charts. I always struggle to post things like that... I think you've clearly dispelled the myth there is no support until 720!!!

I'd also agree with your comments/summary. Most people see it as a traders market. The bit I would also add though, is that for the patient investor there is good money in there to be had by investing now and waiting... providing they can ride out a few months or so of volatility..

[lannarebirth]

^^ That would be the bullish view. Long Term charts have turned down, but it is possible that price will move in a "sideways" consolidation till the LT chart resolves itself. I wouldn't bet on it however.

[ray23]

Anyone sen any good news lately we seem to be in short supply of that.

[LaoPo]

SET has a support level in the 760's, so talk of no support for where it is now and the next support level being in the 720's is just rubbish.

The SET reached a low of 741 and closed 742 last week Thursday 19th after opening at 760. In January the SET had a low of 728; ANYTHING is possible, never mind the SET is undervalued.

What's undervalued in these days ?

LaoPo

If you disagree the SET is undervalued that's fine.

I didn't Sir, I didn't.

Maybe you should read my messages better or maybe my "ANYTHING is possible, never mind the SET is undervalued." should have written: "ANYTHING is possible, even if the SET is undervalued?"

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6432037.html

The Chinese economy was set to grow healthily and steadily after the summer Olympic Games and a post-Olmypic economic downturn was highly unlikely, a noted Chinese economist said Tuesday.

I hope you don't mind I won't repost your entire article/message.

I agree with your view that the Olympics will not be THE engine for an eventual downturn in China and/or the world. But you also shouldn't take Chinese press articles or 'noted Chinese Economists' for granted as you won't see negative articles in the Chinese press, neither about the economics nor Olympics; it's too sensitive for Beijing.

The whole world, including China, is in a very difficult economical and financial period this very moment and ANYTHING could happen...any day soon.

LaoPo

[dotcom]

I think the SET never had to grapple with $140 a barrel oil.

I remember after Chavalit's experiment the SET went to 280. The Phillipines was around 1000. Each have trippled off those levels.

Wouldn't touch the SET with a barge pole - regardless of what the charts say.

btw. Shainghai index off 50% in the last few months. Speculators beware.

Edited June 28, 2008 by dotcom

[lordofdelusion]

Show me a country that doesn't use oil and I'll invest right away. The others are going to have to wait for my money. It isn't about the sub prime crisis, housing, the consumer, the olympics, emerging markets, lousy governments, charts or any other fantasy. $140 a barrel oil. Start there. It's consuming the financial world.

[LaoPo]

I think the SET never had to grapple with $140 a barrel oil.

I remember after Chavalit's experiment the SET went to 280. The Phillipines was around 1000. Each have trippled off those levels.

Wouldn't touch the SET with a barge pole - regardless of what the charts say.

btw. Shainghai index off 50% in the last few months. Speculators beware.

Let's all face it. It's just because we have an interest in Thailand that some of us look at the Thai SET. Otherwise I NEVER EVER hear a soul in the Western or even Eastern hemisphere about the Thai SET. Nobody cares apart from a few who play the SET, but not me

And, about he Shanghai market: it's correct that the SHCOMP IX lost -55% since Oct 17 last year. From 6.092 to 2.748 now.

But I never hear anybody that 2.748 is still some +270% above the level where it was 3 years ago, July 2005 when it moved around 1.000

It also means that the SHCOMP IX gained +600% in 2 years, between 2005 and 2007 !

Above all it means that a lot of Chinese made and/or lost money but it doesn't say a thing about the REAL economy in China which will still have a growth of close to 10% this year.

In fact, the Chinese economy has averaged 9.7% growth for the last 26 years!

The chances to make substantial %-gains in the nearby future are not on the Thai SET (like AFKASinLOS predicts) but in China and (remember my words... ) Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Japan and S Korea.

Even in the case the SHCOMP IX goes down further to (like I previously discussed/agreed with Lannarebirth) 2.200/2.300 or even 2.000 the upward swing will be enormous, NO: gigantic !

LaoPo

Edited June 28, 2008 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

In addition to the above I would like to say it's not so easy as to say: 'Shanghai' is down -50% whilst forgetting (or not telling) what's going on in the Western hemisphere.

I mean that we have to worry what's going on in the entire world, not just China, Thailand or the Far East in general.

If one sees that a GIANT like General Motors -GM- is down -17% just last week, it's something to worry about.

GM is down -67% in the past year....

Ford is down -45%

Toyota down -23%

Daimler down -30%

Other -financial- companies are equally in stormy weather:

Citigroup down-67%

JP Morgan Chase down -28%

Bank of America down -47%

Barclays PLC down -58%

Royal Bank of Scotland down -58%

Deutsche Bank down -40%

UBS Switzerland down-64%

Fortis down -65%

not to mention mortgage Giant Countrywide CFC who lost -88% in the past year (now about to be taken over by BOA) or:

Fannie Mae down-68%

Freddie Mac down -71%

...anyone a cookie with his tea ?

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

In addition to the above I would like to say it's not so easy as to say: 'Shanghai' is down -50% whilst forgetting (or not telling) what's going on in the Western hemisphere.

I mean that we have to worry what's going on in the entire world, not just China, Thailand or the Far East in general.

If one sees that a GIANT like General Motors -GM- is down -17% just last week, it's something to worry about.

GM is down -67% in the past year....

Ford is down -45%

Toyota down -23%

Daimler down -30%

Other -financial- companies are equally in stormy weather:

Citigroup down-67%

JP Morgan Chase down -28%

Bank of America down -47%

Barclays PLC down -58%

Royal Bank of Scotland down -58%

Deutsche Bank down -40%

UBS Switzerland down-64%

Fortis down -65%

not to mention mortgage Giant Countrywide CFC who lost -88% in the past year (now about to be taken over by BOA) or:

Fannie Mae down-68%

Freddie Mac down -71%

...anyone a cookie with his tea ?

LaoPo

Yes, the industrials are pretty alarming because of their legacy fixed expenses (pensions), but pull up 20 year charts ofd those financials. They've all had multiple splits and are still up several hundred percent in that time period. They've got a lot of air in them IMO.