Global Correction

[Jimjim]

So should we get out of the U.S. Naam?

[Naam]

So should we get out of the U.S. Naam?

do you mean the U.S. (aka "Greatest Nation on Earth™") or the US-Dollar?

[midas]

Did anyone read this today in the Bangkok Post ?

$330 oil possible

Bangkok Post reporters

Petroleum giant PTT Plc sees the prospect of world crude prices reaching a previously unthinkable US$300 per barrel if tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Tevin Vongvanich, PTT's senior executive vice-president for corporate strategy and development, said yesterday that Iran's missile tests have had some negative effects on the oil market.

the full article is here :-

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=128846

Imagine what that would do to Thailand's economy

[cloudhopper]

Any number is possible I guess. Imagine what it would do the world economy....

[VegasVic]

Did anyone read this today in the Bangkok Post ?

$330 oil possible

Bangkok Post reporters

Petroleum giant PTT Plc sees the prospect of world crude prices reaching a previously unthinkable US$300 per barrel if tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Tevin Vongvanich, PTT's senior executive vice-president for corporate strategy and development, said yesterday that Iran's missile tests have had some negative effects on the oil market.

the full article is here :-

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=128846

Imagine what that would do to Thailand's economy

Lets see if I got this right, we could get $330/bbl oil if Israel nukes Iran I sure am glad this prediction was made by an entity that has nothing to gain from $330/bbl oil, like say a petroleum giant My friend if Israel nukes Iran we will have a great deal more to worry about than $330/bbl oil! Now back on planet earth lets look at what has been going on and what is likely to happen in the near future. A year ago oil was under $70/bbl and back then it was estimated that $10-$25/bbl of that was speculators bidding up the price. Now here we are a year later and oil is above $140/bbl and yet actual worldwide demand is approximately the same as it was a year ago that really makes one wonder what the "real" price of oil should be without the speculative bubble fever the hedgies have given us, that "real" supply and demand number minus the speculators is about the same as a year ago roughly $55/bbl. Given the fact that economies are slowing all over the world and will continue to do so for a while, and given the unprecedented push worldwide both in the public and private sector to conserve energy and to find and produce more alternative (green) energy, I think we have seen worldwide oil demand hit its peak for a while and when the bubble bursts in the coming months oil will deflate back to the $55-$60/bbl area. I must say that these fantastic posts on thaivisa about a Russian oil company predicting $250/bbl or PTT predicting $330/bbl are really exiting to read, but it is far more likely that 6 months from now we will see oil below $100/bbl (very likely well below) than we will see oil anywhere near those other fantastic levels.

[Naam]

Now here we are a year later and oil is above $140/bbl and yet actual worldwide demand is approximately the same as it was a year ago dry.gif that really makes one wonder what the "real" price of oil should be without the speculative bubble fever the hedgies have given us, that "real" supply and demand number minus the speculators is about the same as a year ago roughly $55/bbl.

there is only one "real" price for any commodity and that is what the market is willing and actually pays. precious and base metals as well as other commodities exploded but there's hardly any talk about "speculators". crude below $100/barrel in 2008 is in my [not so] humble opinion wishful thinking. a real impact on crude prices would be a sharp cooling down of China's and the economies of other EM countries. but even in this case it would take considerable time till crude reacts.

[VegasVic]

Now here we are a year later and oil is above $140/bbl and yet actual worldwide demand is approximately the same as it was a year ago dry.gif that really makes one wonder what the "real" price of oil should be without the speculative bubble fever the hedgies have given us, that "real" supply and demand number minus the speculators is about the same as a year ago roughly $55/bbl.

there is only one "real" price for any commodity and that is what the market is willing and actually pays. precious and base metals as well as other commodities exploded but there's hardly any talk about "speculators". crude below $100/barrel in 2008 is in my [not so] humble opinion wishful thinking. a real impact on crude prices would be a sharp cooling down of China's and the economies of other EM countries. but even in this case it would take considerable time till crude reacts.

First of all Naam to say there isn't any talk of speculators in the precious metals market is a bit ridiculous, the precious metals market especially gold is basically all speculation. Gold does have some actual industrial demand that accounts for about 10% (down from about 14% 10years ago) of the market and the rest is jewelry and speculation, and since the gold jewelry market has taken a dive over the past 2 years, it does appear that speculators rule the day and that is why gold will fall so hard! We may find out very soon what the "real" price of oil and refined product will be should the U.S. congress enacts legislation this week that would require anyone buying oil contracts to take physical delivery of the oil, then I feel there will be a great deal of panic in the oil trading pits in Chicago, New York and London, and when the dust settles there will only be a few players left (refiners, power generators, airlines and a few others), but certainly those hedge funds in conneticuit, boca raton, the caymans and elsewhere will be out of the picture

[glyph]

"We may find out very soon what the "real" price of oil and refined product will be should the U.S. congress enacts legislation this week that would require anyone buying oil contracts to take physical delivery of the oil..."

Another fantastic idea from the US government! Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

[dotcom]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/13/news/econo...unday/index.htm

Remains to be seen if the US taxpayers are on the hook for this.

[Naam]

First of all Naam to say there isn't any talk of speculators in the precious metals market is a bit ridiculous, the precious metals market especially gold is basically all speculation.

let's agree on one thing Vic: ANY investment is speculation and that goes for cash stored under mattress too

[Naam]

"We may find out very soon what the "real" price of oil and refined product will be should the U.S. congress enacts legislation this week that would require anyone buying oil contracts to take physical delivery of the oil..."

Another fantastic idea from the US government! Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

phantastic indeed because only phantasts believe that the U.S. government can prevent that kind of trading offshore (where commodity trading is partly done anyway since decades) and only phantasts believe that the speculative traders will not move offshore in the blink of an eye.

[lannarebirth]

"We may find out very soon what the "real" price of oil and refined product will be should the U.S. congress enacts legislation this week that would require anyone buying oil contracts to take physical delivery of the oil..."

Another fantastic idea from the US government! Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

phantastic indeed because only phantasts believe that the U.S. government can prevent that kind of trading offshore (where commodity trading is partly done anyway since decades) and only phantasts believe that the speculative traders will not move offshore in the blink of an eye.

It's true they could move offshore, but a great amount of liquidity would be lost. Much of the open interest in commodities futures are "buy at the ask" fuds, which are always long at whatever the prevailing price is. If the US Congress were to enact legislation that required greater transparency of ownership, it would likely be founf that many funds hold positions which are illegal under prevailing law. Taking delivery IMO is a red herring. Transparency will accomplish the same goals, at least in the short term.

[midas]

Lets see if I got this right, we could get $330/bbl oil if Israel nukes Iran I sure am glad this prediction was made by an entity that has nothing to gain from $330/bbl oil, like say a petroleum giant My friend if Israel nukes Iran we will have a great deal more to worry about than $330/bbl oil! Now back on planet earth lets look at what has been going on and what is likely to happen in the near future. A year ago oil was under $70/bbl and back then it was estimated that $10-$25/bbl of that was speculators bidding up the price. Now here we are a year later and oil is above $140/bbl and yet actual worldwide demand is approximately the same as it was a year ago that really makes one wonder what the "real" price of oil should be without the speculative bubble fever the hedgies have given us, that "real" supply and demand number minus the speculators is about the same as a year ago roughly $55/bbl. Given the fact that economies are slowing all over the world and will continue to do so for a while, and given the unprecedented push worldwide both in the public and private sector to conserve energy and to find and produce more alternative (green) energy, I think we have seen worldwide oil demand hit its peak for a while and when the bubble bursts in the coming months oil will deflate back to the $55-$60/bbl area. I must say that these fantastic posts on thaivisa about a Russian oil company predicting $250/bbl or PTT predicting $330/bbl are really exiting to read, but it is far more likely that 6 months from now we will see oil below $100/bbl (very likely well below) than we will see oil anywhere near those other fantastic levels.

Firstly VegasVic you are grossly distorting and exaggerating what might happen over the next

six months while Dick Cheney ( who I regard as one of the most dangerous men in the world )

is still in office. no one has ever mentioned the possibility

of a nuclear strike against Iran but certainly there is a distinct possibility may be probability

of a regular air raid which will severely disrupt deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz.

you keep referring to the bubble bursting but I cannot see this happening until at least

you have a Democrat in the White House who hopefully has a better appreciation

for cultural differences!

[Samuian]

...Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

cut the precious metals, diamonds and other luxuries, but trading with commodity goods of daily needs should be illegal and be punished heavily, at least as with crude, the owner/buyer of future comodities should be forced by law to buy and store the real stuff!

Disgusting!

Edited July 14, 2008 by Samuian

[LivinLOS]

...Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

cut the precious metals, diamonds and other luxuries, but trading with commodity goods of daily needs should be illegal and be punished heavily, at least as with crude, the owner/buyer of future comodities should be forced by law to buy and store the real stuff!

Disgusting!

You clearly have no idea the function of an open speculative market on creating supplies inventory..

Say oil prices are driven down, and go below the cost of discovery and extraction.. So then all the companies stop doing so.. Nice solution.

Large easy to extract fields are rare, lots of new supply is being found but hard to extract low grade oil that needs much more work refining.. The market has realized this in turn driving up the price which gives the oil majors the cash needed to buy junior exploration companies with good drill results invest in new infrastructure, and get new supply to the market.

For every poster that says how these nasty speculators are driving up the price I would like to clarify exactly how they believe this happens... If these speculators dont take delivery they have to find a buyer, as they are essentially forced to sell why does that not drive the market down ??

But its a lot easier to blame those 'nasty speculators' than it is to take responsibility for piss poor fiscal responsibility, rapidly increasing money supply, rampant global inflation across the board. But of course it couldnt be the governments fault could it ??

Vic was predicting falling oil when it was at 80.. Falling gold when it was at 600.. And an 1.4x USD/EUR rate.

[pkrv]

An interesting story on the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7504122.stm

Not only are Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae amongst the largest Federal Tax contributors to the US economy under the control of 5 directors directly appointed by the US president - ref courtesy of naam, - (what independent director in his right mind would go up against such an entrenched 'unit') - but the US Tax payer is NOW paying for the privilege.

I think the term US consumer as opposed to citizen (used in past posts) pails into insignificance - Slave - may be more appropriate. OK I jest, but paying tax, for the privilege to pay tax seems a little extreme to me.

How much is Bush worth?

[lannarebirth]

...Let's hope they do the same for precious metals, corn, soybean, wheat, orange juice, and the entire myriad of commodities and foodstuffs.

cut the precious metals, diamonds and other luxuries, but trading with commodity goods of daily needs should be illegal and be punished heavily, at least as with crude, the owner/buyer of future comodities should be forced by law to buy and store the real stuff!

Disgusting!

You clearly have no idea the function of an open speculative market on creating supplies inventory..

Say oil prices are driven down, and go below the cost of discovery and extraction.. So then all the companies stop doing so.. Nice solution.

Large easy to extract fields are rare, lots of new supply is being found but hard to extract low grade oil that needs much more work refining.. The market has realized this in turn driving up the price which gives the oil majors the cash needed to buy junior exploration companies with good drill results invest in new infrastructure, and get new supply to the market.

For every poster that says how these nasty speculators are driving up the price I would like to clarify exactly how they believe this happens... If these speculators dont take delivery they have to find a buyer, as they are essentially forced to sell why does that not drive the market down ??

But its a lot easier to blame those 'nasty speculators' than it is to take responsibility for piss poor fiscal responsibility, rapidly increasing money supply, rampant global inflation across the board. But of course it couldnt be the governments fault could it ??

Vic was predicting falling oil when it was at 80.. Falling gold when it was at 600.. And an 1.4x USD/EUR rate.

I'm not suggesting it's speculators driving up the price. I'm suggesting it is funds who represent the general public who are driving up the price. Every idiot on here that suggest "buy commodities" must either have a very big garage or they're part of that group that sees commodities as a "new investment class"(which it isn't), that just keeps buying futures at the ask. There's a constant bid under these contracts, not because of demand for the commodity but because of demand for the contract. The "fund manager" will gladly buy it for you for his 2% fee. Next year he'll buy tech stocks or carbon credits. he doesn't care, just as long as he gets his 2%. It's the idiotic public that is the architect of it's own misery. Such is the way in democratic states.

edit: as a consequence of this buying activity many of these funds hold larger positions in some commodities than is allowable by law. THAT is why commodity prices are so high.

Edited July 14, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

It's true they could move offshore, but a great amount of liquidity would be lost. Much of the open interest in commodities futures are "buy at the ask" fuds, which are always long at whatever the prevailing price is. If the US Congress were to enact legislation that required greater transparency of ownership, it would likely be founf that many funds hold positions which are illegal under prevailing law. Taking delivery IMO is a red herring. Transparency will accomplish the same goals, at least in the short term.

what law are you referring to LRB?

[lannarebirth]

It's true they could move offshore, but a great amount of liquidity would be lost. Much of the open interest in commodities futures are "buy at the ask" fuds, which are always long at whatever the prevailing price is. If the US Congress were to enact legislation that required greater transparency of ownership, it would likely be founf that many funds hold positions which are illegal under prevailing law. Taking delivery IMO is a red herring. Transparency will accomplish the same goals, at least in the short term.

what law are you referring to LRB?

http://www.cftc.gov/industryoversight/mark...tivelimits.html

[lannarebirth]

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20166.htm

MichaelMasters_1_.pdf

[bingobongo]

this is getting too easy, per my last post 725-730 on the SET did not hold and next support on SET is 675, so why buy now when you get cheaper tomorrow (as of this post it is at 709)

if DOW does not get back over 11203 (and soon), next stop is 10750

did you like my call on Indymac, Countrywide and Washington Mutual (scroll back thru the thread, and you'll see) shorted them all to the bottom

[lannarebirth]

Pretty good interview IMO.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-cont.../06/montier.pdf

[Naam]

this is getting too easy, per my last post 725-730 on the SET did not hold and next support on SET is 675, so why buy now when you get cheaper tomorrow (as of this post it is at 709)

TV-members investing in some insignificant stock exchange like the SET seem to be nearly non-existing. so why are you mentioning the index repeatedly?

[cloudhopper]

Pretty good interview IMO.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-cont.../06/montier.pdf

IMO too - thanks for sharing the link...

[Pakboong]

In 2003 a mere $16 billion was invested in oil futures. Today the number is $260 billion.

[lannarebirth]

In 2003 a mere $16 billion was invested in oil futures. Today the number is $260 billion.

It's the tail wagging the dog. Same goes for ETFs of all descriptions.

[pkrv]

You know I remember (vaguely) a story about one of the European Union’s 'chancellor of the exchequer equivalent’ saying something along the lines of ‘pumping money into the economy during such times is a bit like peeing in your trousers. At first it feels all warm and comfortable but you pretty soon come to regret it'. Possibly one of the most profound statements I ever heard and I was in hysterics.

Why is my cash (which is in short supply) not earning bloody more interest!

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Talking about timing Bingo. Seems like you sold your?gf?bf? condo 2 years ago because the LOS was going to fall apart and then you moved your $$ to the US. Now what has happened to the US since you went back? What isn't down in the US, besides oil. So how much less is your money worth today?

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Don't know why you are so obsessed with the SET you are the only one who ever mentions it.

[lannarebirth]

[cloudhopper]

....erm is that chart showing what technical analysts call a double top? Isn't that (according to them if that's what it is) bad?