Global Correction

[midas]

Taxpayers - current & future.

I AM FINE WITH FIGHTING BOTH WARS.

So you can't say that any more.

And dotcom when you say tjhis, are you still " fine " knowing that

with the populations of India and China now able to do anything

that Americans can do ( much cheaper and maybe even BETTER )

we might be facing the beginning of an exponential fall in the number

of taxpayers in the USA because they will be unemployed ?

[Naam]

Sleep well, dream soft.

LaoPo

nowdays the softest pillow and mattress is cash

[PeaceBlondie]

This is mostly about the US stock market. S&P 500:

Sep 1992 - "It's the economy, stupid" - 466

Sep 2000 - after 8 years of Clinton - 1436

Sep 2008 - after 7.5 years of GW Bush - 1192

[flying]

New York just closed....................."Stocks fall most since 9/11...."...***

Wasn't it just the SP500 you meant?

BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 and Dow fall to session lows. Weakness is broad-based.

Despite the financial sector's 7.2% plummet this session and all the turmoil within the sector, it is still 16% above its July 15 multi-year low.

Edited September 16, 2008 by flying

[lannarebirth]

New York just closed....................."Stocks fall most since 9/11...."...***

Your statement is very misleading

BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 and Dow fall to session lows. Weakness is broad-based.

Despite the financial sector's 7.2% plummet this session and all the turmoil within the sector, it is still 16% above its July 15 multi-year low.

It's the most elegant scam in history. since the mid 70's and early 80's when government mandated "private pension schemes" became the law. The mantra was "send us your money every month, buy when the market's going up, buy when t's going down, stay the course, and check back with us in 40 years".

As for financials, there are a lot of great small banks and several really bad big ones.

[LaoPo]

New York just closed....................."Stocks fall most since 9/11...."...***

Wasn't it just the SP500 you meant?

Yes, that's correct; it was a quote from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Something went wrong, please see my comment above.

LaoPo

Edited September 16, 2008 by LaoPo

[bingobongo]

oh where art thou BeenThereDoneNothing? LMAO........stick to a savings account and sleeping on the beach

so much for asia being immune

SE Asian Stocks-Thai stocks fall to 20-month low on banks

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080916/3/3p47f.html

Edited September 16, 2008 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

... BTW I have no interest in Lehman nor do I think it concerns most people outside of Wall Street, now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention. Yes the virus did have its origin in the U.S. and because of that the U.S. will be the first to recover. European and Asian economies have a tsunami coming their way Bingo and I do differ in that I say sell gold and buy Dollars and I think he has it the other way around. I hope you didn't get hurt too badly in the Chinese equity colapse, and I certainly hope that you liquidated all that stuff bevause there more dark days to come on the SSE

Lehman: I think it WILL concern a lotof people outside Wall St.; it will have consequences for America in total.

The domino effect is far from over....look at AIG, another large problem coming up or could be toppled alraedy the moment you read this.

If you think the US will recover faster than Europe and Asia...I'm not so sure as you are.

If you say sell gold and buy dollars....? I'm not touching gold (yet) but I wouldn't buy dollars either, no way. You could have a surprise one morning when you wake up with your greenback

Don't you worry about my Chinese equities since I don't have any, nor did; they just belong(ed) to me in your wet dreams

LaoPo

[AlexLah]

A very famous Dutch economist (all his predictions came true) told that the housing price in Holland will decline by around 50-60% in the coming 5 years.

Some time ago I read a post somewhere that a memo (including a picture of the memo) to UK cabinet also predicted this scenario.

Many economist tell the worst is yet to come with another disaster after the housing bubble, the derivatives market that holds a value of more then 3 Trillion Dollar.

The market is heavilly manipulated as shown by strengtening Dollar and lower oil and gold price but increasing prices foor food comm.

The EU promised to help back up the US Dollar to prevent it to collapse.

Interesting times for sure.

[lannarebirth]

... BTW I have no interest in Lehman nor do I think it concerns most people outside of Wall Street, now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention. Yes the virus did have its origin in the U.S. and because of that the U.S. will be the first to recover. European and Asian economies have a tsunami coming their way Bingo and I do differ in that I say sell gold and buy Dollars and I think he has it the other way around. I hope you didn't get hurt too badly in the Chinese equity colapse, and I certainly hope that you liquidated all that stuff bevause there more dark days to come on the SSE

Lehman: I think it WILL concern a lotof people outside Wall St.; it will have consequences for America in total.

The domino effect is far from over....look at AIG, another large problem coming up or could be toppled alraedy the moment you read this.

If you think the US will recover faster than Europe and Asia...I'm not so sure as you are.

If you say sell gold and buy dollars....? I'm not touching gold (yet) but I wouldn't buy dollars either, no way. You could have a surprise one morning when you wake up with your greenback

Don't you worry about my Chinese equities since I don't have any, nor did; they just belong(ed) to me in your wet dreams

LaoPo

The problem is, you can say "sell dollars, buy gold" or vice versa or pick two other vehicles. The fact is they've got hundreds of billions ot trillions of derivatives to unwind and prices are going to go where the unwinding takes them. It will have nothing to do with value, fundamentals or even my technical analysis. If I was going to buy or sell anything I'd stick to broad themes. that's why I like index trading. when a real market returns, one can then look for leadership.

[LaoPo]

A very famous Dutch economist (all his predictions came true) told that the housing price in Holland will decline by around 50-60% in the coming 5 years.

Some time ago I read a post somewhere that a memo (including a picture of the memo) to UK cabinet also predicted this scenario.

Many economist tell the worst is yet to come with another disaster after the housing bubble, the derivatives market that holds a value of more then 3 Trillion Dollar.

The market is heavilly manipulated as shown by strengtening Dollar and lower oil and gold price but increasing prices foor food comm.

The EU promised to help back up the US Dollar to prevent it to collapse.

Interesting times for sure.

Do you have a name ?

The Dutch house prices could come down, but with 50-60% in the next 5 years is doubtful and unlikely. The situation on the Dutch real estate market is completely different than in other EU countries. Holland has an extremely high SHORTAGE of houses, already for more than 40 years contrary to other countries.

But, I am not surprised by anything anymore...so we just have to wait and see.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

.............. now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention.

Attention Please Viccy !

How come Viccy that always when you write a story, they listen to you; do you have some special connections or what ? Truly AMAZING I must say... BTW, Goldman is down -40% YTD

Goldman profit falls 70%, rules out bank deal

By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch

Last update: 10:19 a.m. EDT Sept. 16, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs added to the mounting sense of gloom on Wall Street Tuesday when it reported that third-quarter profit plunged 70% from a year ago as business slowed across the board and the firm posted more than $800 million in losses from sour residential and commercial real estate assets.

Well, read the rest for yourself:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...7-F136014D57D9}

LaoPo

[Naam]

.............. now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention.

Attention Please Viccy !

How come Viccy that always when you write a story, they listen to you; do you have some special connections or what ? Truly AMAZING I must say... BTW, Goldman is down -40% YTD

LaoPo

so what? Goldman Sucks will rake in zillions of profit when they cash in their exposure to crude oil which (according to the forecasts of their @n@l-ysts) will reach $200/barrel by the end of this year

edited for addendum: the zillions are of course old Zimbabwe Dollars

Edited September 17, 2008 by Naam

[VegasVic]

.............. now if Goldman goes belly up then that will get my attention.

Attention Please Viccy !

How come Viccy that always when you write a story, they listen to you; do you have some special connections or what ? Truly AMAZING I must say... BTW, Goldman is down -40% YTD

Goldman profit falls 70%, rules out bank deal

By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch

Last update: 10:19 a.m. EDT Sept. 16, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs added to the mounting sense of gloom on Wall Street Tuesday when it reported that third-quarter profit plunged 70% from a year ago as business slowed across the board and the firm posted more than $800 million in losses from sour residential and commercial real estate assets.

Well, read the rest for yourself:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...7-F136014D57D9}

LaoPo

Well lao once again you live up to your highly biased reputation here! Lets not tell everyone the truth that GS remains highly profitable despite the worldwide financial crisis and billions in write downs, no sir that would take some degree of honesty, something that you seem to be unaccustomed to . To take an objective view and not cherry pick your facts seems to be a mission impossible to you . Going forward GS and MS are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them (hows that for a scarey thought). I have to say I did enjoy the fact that you seem to have distanced yourself from the Chinese equity market, considering that you were hyping the SSE last year when it was near 6000, too funny

[cclub75]

Well lao once again you live up to your highly biased reputation here! Lets not tell everyone the truth that GS remains highly profitable despite the worldwide financial crisis and billions in write downs, no sir that would take some degree of honesty, something that you seem to be unaccustomed to .

Along with honesty, should come lucidity. Which is something that apparently you don't have.

Do you seriously believe the quaterly financial results ? It's huge. At a time when the FED says "no" on monday, then "no no" on tuesday morning, then "yes" in the evening... by taking over... the first US insurer (not a bank) ? Like Mish said : the FED now can make loan to pizza restaurants.

Anyway, we said it already. Follow Roubini.

All the rest is perfectly irrelevant.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/...reat_depression

Massive amount of creative accounting and other forms of balance sheet window dressing is occurring to prevent banks from recognizing their true losses. First, most financial institutions are putting increasing numbers of assets in the illiquid buckets of Level 2 and Level 3 assets.

While FASB 157 should prevent manipulation of the valuation of such illiquid assets, forbearance by the SEC, the Fed and other regulators allows a massive amount of fudging.

An insider told me that in a major financial institution the approach is as follows now: top management decide in advance what the announced writedowns should be and folks dealing with the toxic/illiquid assets come up with totally ad hoc assumptions to make sure that such illiquid assets are valued consistently with the decided-in-advance amount of writedowns and losses.

This is not earnings smoothing; this is active manipulation and falsification of financial results aimed at creating even more obfuscation of the true state of financial institutions. This obfuscation is actively abetted by the SEC, the Fed and all other regulators that are now in forbearance crisis management stage where the objective is to avoid at any cost anything that may trigger a financial meltdown. Thus, most of these earnings reports are not worth the paper they are written off.

Edited September 17, 2008 by cclub75

[jcon]

Well I read this thread. Took a bloody long time.

I think poster bingobongo got it right. I mean we've had a serious global correction, haven't we? I don't think that can be argued.

So why the picking on bingobongo? He did start the thread. I mean yes he posts like a jerk, but he was right. And people seem to have short memories when it comes to their postings, because I read all 48 pages and there was all kinds of flip flop by other people, but bingobongo was stubborn and he was right. I hope he made a shitload of money, or else then it would be sad that he was just talking and not putting money where his mouth was.

At some point, those with loads of cash will be able to enter the markets and pick up some awesome deals. Not yet, though....

edit: I think somebody asked what was HBOS. well you can say it's something that just took a 50% hit today. wow. edit again. looks like HBOS is up 12% now. trading range of like 105 to 190 in one day?!?! nuts.

Edited September 17, 2008 by jcon

[LaoPo]

Well lao once again you live up to your highly biased reputation here! Lets not tell everyone the truth that GS remains highly profitable despite the worldwide financial crisis and billions in write downs, no sir that would take some degree of honesty, something that you seem to be unaccustomed to . To take an objective view and not cherry pick your facts seems to be a mission impossible to you . Going forward GS and MS are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them (hows that for a scarey thought). I have to say I did enjoy the fact that you seem to have distanced yourself from the Chinese equity market, considering that you were hyping the SSE last year when it was near 6000, too funny

Tell us Viccy, WHAT were the causes of the disasters of the companies which went under, since you're not answering my previous questions. You play again the Stage actor: ALL IS WELL in good old America.....no problems.

You constantly avoid talking about the real things happening right under our noses but China seems to fascinate you; ever climbed the Great Wall Viccy ? Because once you did you become a REAL man in China

If you have read my messages you will have read that I NEVER ever have been hyping the Shanghai stock market; only in your own wet dreams. Now, don't be a naughty desert cowboy by saying such incorrect things, ok? Your mommy probably told you not to lie, didn't she ?

Oh and BTW, Your Morgan Stanley is down -57% in 1 year.

Goldman Sachs however is down just a mere -38% since Jan 1 this year.

Your Goliaths have a bit of pain in the @rse, don't they ? Let's talk again at the end of this year and see how many more banks go under because your country seems to have the best managers of letting banks go under

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Well I read this thread. Took a bloody long time.

I think poster bingobongo got it right. I mean we've had a serious global correction, haven't we? I don't think that can be argued.

So why the picking on bingobongo? He did start the thread. I mean yes he posts like a jerk, but he was right. And people seem to have short memories when it comes to their postings, because I read all 48 pages and there was all kinds of flip flop by other people, but bingobongo was stubborn and he was right. I hope he made a shitload of money, or else then it would be sad that he was just talking and not putting money where his mouth was.

At some point, those with loads of cash will be able to enter the markets and pick up some awesome deals. Not yet, though....

edit: I think somebody asked what was HBOS. well you can say it's something that just took a 50% hit today. wow.

You read 1,185 messages on 48 pages ??? you better have an eye check straight away !

Yes Bingo was right when he started this topic just over 1 year ago. I am honest enough to say so.

HSBO....doe you mean Heritage Financial Group ? Market Cap. $ 111 Million and with a P/E of 37 in the financial world not really a stock I would buy. They rose 5% yesterday, not 50% .

"Heritage Financial Group has not engaged in any business other than through its wholly owned subsidiary, HeritageBank of the South (the Bank). The principal business of the Bank consists of attracting retail and commercial deposits from the general public and investing those funds primarily in permanent loans secured by first mortgages on owner-occupied, one- to four-family residences, multi-family residences and commercial property and a variety of consumer and commercial business loans."

You can have my cookie, ok ?

LaoPo

[midas]

Your Goliaths have a bit of pain in the @rse, don't they ? Let's talk again at the end of this year and see how many more banks go under because your country seems to have the best managers of letting banks go under

LaoPo

And heaven forbid if Obama wins the election in Novmember because

Vegas Vic will blaming everything that will keep going wrong in the USA

( because it is a country in financial, educational and moral decline )

on the Democrats

[jcon]

LaoPo, yeah it was a very long read. But i did skip lots of pages that were like bickering etc. Lots of names disappeared after awhile, but i recall your name being here til the end, among some others.

HBOS, Halifax Bank of Scotland, trades in London - a huge company. was down seriously just awhile ago, 105 IIRC, now back to 190ish on talk of Lloyds TSB merger or something like that... don't know the details, just heard it in the background on the television.

edit: and yes i feel like i'm going to pass out after reading all of that. but if it didn't take so long, I'd say some of you guys should go back and read the whole thing again -- there were so many wrong calls made.... hindsight 20/20 i suppose.

Edited September 17, 2008 by jcon

[LaoPo]

LaoPo, yeah it was a very long read. But i did skip lots of pages that were like bickering etc. Lots of names disappeared after awhile, but i recall your name being here til the end, among some others.

HBOS, Halifax Bank of Scotland, trades in London - a huge company. was down seriously just awhile ago, 105 IIRC, now back to 190ish on talk of Lloyds TSB merger or something like that... don't know the details, just heard it in the background on the television.

edit: and yes i feel like i'm going to pass out after reading all of that. but if it didn't take so long, I'd say some of you guys should go back and read the whole thing again -- there were so many wrong calls made.... hindsight 20/20 i suppose.

...that's how people lose money on stock markets. I have however, yet, to meet 1 single investor who never lost money, except me of course.

NOT....

The BEST investor in the US however is a chap, living in the desert...VegasVic, he wins all the time and leaves guys like Buffett standing in the corner full of shame...

.....he's brilliant and predicts EVERYTHING; just unbelievable.

It's about time he starts his own topic giving tips what to buy and what to sell. Vic...are you there..to help us ?

LaoPo

[jumnien]

I admit to putting $50,000USD into AIG about 3 months ago when it was about 33. Yeah, I've got a real knack for market timing! Easy come, easier go!

[lannarebirth]

Currently US markets are the most overbought (no, not oversold) that they've been since the end of February. That's a fact, based on my reading of the 10 day OPEN TRIN.

My opinion, based on that fact is that something catastrophic is in the air. I will be very pleased if I'm wrong. If I'm not, I hope it's only money lost.

[Naam]

...that's how people lose money on stock markets. I have however, yet, to meet 1 single investor who never lost money, except me of course.

LaoPo

perhaps because you never met me i had my Waterloo in 1998 (russian crisis). after travelling nearly five weeks incommunicado in Burma and Laos i returned to Europe mid september. at that time i was invested exclusively in emerging markets sovereign bonds and leveraged up to my lower lip. need i say more?

[bingobongo]

if 10,700 does not hold on the DOW then the next stop isn't until 10,300

and yes, global bourses (inlcuding LOS will continue their slide)

.........and no Laopo, I didnt use fortune teller

Edited September 17, 2008 by bingobongo

[lannarebirth]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

agree...but that was Oct 2006; it's 4,400 now.

Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that. That's another 50% down from today; we'll see.

IF it goes down like that the world is already in a serious recession and all stock markets will be down with lots of opportunities.

LaoPo

Well, you could start building a position there, sure. I've never seen a parabolic breakout in any market that did not retrace 100% eventually(eventually can be a long time sometimes).

Closed at 1929 today:

[pkrv]

Sleep well, dream soft.

LaoPo

nowdays the softest pillow and mattress is cash

Hmm - I agree BUT there is no reward for that which is in such 'short supply' has EVERY MAN JACK done this? And this is the outcome? In which case look for the next event!

IMO Homer Simpson got it right first time - bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down,

Quote doctor "don't worry he will get bored of it"

bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down, bed goes up bed goes down,

Bed - creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek,creek, creek.....

Edited September 17, 2008 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

uh oh, if the DOW doesn't close above 10,700 and bounce, strap in.......next stop is 10,300 and if doens't hold on, some folks may be doing concrete dives

name of the game is preservation of capital, not catching a falling knife........and yes LOS will feel the pain

Sept 17, 2008

DOW,

10,700.77

-3.24%

-358.25

Edited September 17, 2008 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

Lets not tell everyone the truth that GS remains highly profitable..GOLD MAN SACHS despite the worldwide financial crisis and billions in write downs, no sir that would take some degree of honesty, something that you seem to be unaccustomed to .

Going forward GS and MS/MORGAN STANLEY are the last of the goliaths standing and they will split the world between them (hows that for a scarey thought). I have to say I did enjoy the fact that you seem to have distanced yourself from the Chinese equity market, considering that you were hyping the SSE last year when it was near 6000, too funny

Viccy: if you were not so bloody arrogant with your posts I wouldn't have posted this message....

Your Goliaths...are they still standing ?:

GOLDMAN SACHS GS: -25% today and -54% YTD

MORGAN STANLEY MS: -35% today and -65% YTD

That's as of 12.30PM New York time, so that could change for better o worse.

You know Viccy, I don't like the financial world situation either but you are so bloody blasé, constantly attacking me with you being a self-appointed captain steering the ultimate FINANCIAL WISDOM SHIP.....YEAH, RIGHT.

I have news for you...you're a bad captain, knowing <deleted>....

Now, you better go play golf because you might want to meet your investor banker there who told you all kind of news the past 12 months (as you were telling us here), or is he fired by now ? If not, maybe he has some new investments for you ?

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

agree...but that was Oct 2006; it's 4,400 now.

Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that. That's another 50% down from today; we'll see.

IF it goes down like that the world is already in a serious recession and all stock markets will be down with lots of opportunities.

LaoPo

Well, you could start building a position there, sure. I've never seen a parabolic breakout in any market that did not retrace 100% eventually(eventually can be a long time sometimes).

Closed at 1929 today:

Thanks LR, I saw that and I have to admit I have been too optimistic when I said "Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that.".

Another -10% and we are at 1,800 like you said and a buying moment. BUT..at this stage in the world who's able to predict if that's the right buying moment ?

The ones who staid cash (incl. myself) will have enormous buying opportunities but one will need air and time since I don't see strong upward signals, yet.

Do you ?

I mean, the rescue operations in the US are in fact very strong headache pills but the pills didn't cure the sicknesses....by far.

I'm not sure who will be the next President of the United States but the man is not to be envied.....because he inherits AN ENORMOUS FLEET OF TITANICS, FULL OF PROBLEMS....

With many thanks to the financial Genius Crooks the Banks, Financials and Wall Street produced.

They ought to build special Prisons for those guys....hard labor, water and bread for the next 30 years ...and maybe a few dozen beautiful nud_e girls walking up and down, outside the gates....3 times per day

Rant over

LaoPo