lannarebirth Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 One footnote to the above post, should the U.S. elect Barrack Obama President, and Nacy Pelosi and Harry Reid get their wish with tougher trade policy then this worlwide recession could possibly last 2 years and the good Professor might wind up being right on that particular count correct! the only way to get ouf of this mess is to elect the war hero of the Hanoi Hilton McCain (quote: "one hundred years of war if necessary!"). U.S. industry will crank up and build cruise missiles, cluster bombs, bunker busters, landmines, F15, 16 and 18, those who are jobless will have jobs again, buy houses and all kind of products from China. and everybody on this planet will live happily ever after. Now you got it Naam! Its good to see that you have come around to the right (sorry for the PUN) way of thinking And no, Sen. McCain did not say one hundred years of war if necessary, what he did say is that the U.S. could have a prescence in Iraq for quite some time just as we have had a prescence in Germany and Japan and Korea for quite some time, and when the reporter badgered McCain further as to just how long quite some time might be McCain blurted out a hundred years! See now it really isn't so difficult to put things in their proper perspective i'm not in the mood for splitting hairs Vic. reason: i am waiting impatiently that Mrs Naam is doling out my late afternoon drink. right now she's hiding incommunicado in her bathroom behind three locked doors. but i'll give her another 4 minutes and 30 seconds before i... play with the dog out of desperation If I were you I would play with the dog or with your wife, but whatever you do definately have that drink and stay away from the television. I have a feeling that today will go down in history as Black Friday a look at the futures in NY confirms your feeling. we should be all happy if only today is called "black friday" but i have that uneasy feeling that more black fridays will follow. not to talk about future black mondays, black tuesdays, black wednesdays and black thursdays which are in the offing There was a spike in the Volatility Index yesterday to 96. It was removed from charts as a "bad tick", but my experience is, these are usually not bad ticks and someone took a large S&P put position yesterday. Maybe the Treasury Department is short the banks they only own partial positions in so they can get a better fill on their next buy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLah Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 Now I am no conspiracy guy but watch this and listen carefully what he says at around 3.13, 3.14. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902540383&play=1 Muhaaaa ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 I feel bottom in the stock markets during next week and as well in EUR/JPY. Alex spray your magic to make this the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 (edited) I feel bottom in the stock markets during next week and as well in EUR/JPY. Alex spray your magic to make this the real deal. Naaah....wishful thinking. The flood with bad news and profit warnings amongst the real economy companies just started. Prepare for massive lay-offs in the US, EU and Far East; the real trouble is just beginning; no bottom yet..by far. LaoPo Edited October 24, 2008 by LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 (edited) I feel bottom in the stock markets during next week and as well in EUR/JPY. Alex spray your magic to make this the real deal. Naaah....wishful thinking. The flood with bad news and profit warnings amongst the real economy companies just started. Prepare for massive lay-offs in the US, EU and Far East; the real trouble is just beginning; no bottom yet..by far. LaoPo We shall see The traders I know every and each of them expect the market to plunge hard according to what the charts express. The thing is that I have never seen so many people being right about something. Edited October 24, 2008 by PCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Livinginexile Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 USD is in free fall. Watch the Yen and Euro ! After the job report (a mere "fuse" for the huge bomb that we are riding) published today in the US... we are again in "panic mode". Like august 9. And wait for the FED... It's going to be so funny (or tragic) to read again some posts of the "USD lovers brigade"... Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 USD is in free fall. Watch the Yen and Euro ! After the job report (a mere "fuse" for the huge bomb that we are riding) published today in the US... we are again in "panic mode". Like august 9. And wait for the FED... It's going to be so funny (or tragic) to read again some posts of the "USD lovers brigade"... Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye Nobody's winning...we're ALL losing; the world is losing. Maybe some were wrong with predictions and some were correct, but in the end there are only losers in this one of a kind crisis. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 USD is in free fall. Watch the Yen and Euro ! After the job report (a mere "fuse" for the huge bomb that we are riding) published today in the US... we are again in "panic mode". Like august 9. And wait for the FED... It's going to be so funny (or tragic) to read again some posts of the "USD lovers brigade"... Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye Nobody's winning...we're ALL losing; the world is losing. Maybe some were wrong with predictions and some were correct, but in the end there are only losers in this one of a kind crisis. LaoPo Everybody is going to get hit somehow. Me, I'm pretty prudent about risk, savings, expenditures, but I'm probably going to be forced to take further protective action. Often times actions designed to mitigate risk have a cost just in transactional slippage alone. Hedging aginst downside means no upside either, and more decisions later, which may turn out to be wrong. That farming thread is sounding better all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 (edited) That farming thread is sounding better all the time. I am no farmer but my wife & I started a good sized garden a few months back. Since then I added a 12x14' greenhouse. I am really amazed now how much veggies we have. Way too much for one family. So we give away a bunch. But we really do save $$ as we never buy veggies now. We have snow peas, cucumbers, mustard cabbage,tomatoes, collard greens,bell peppers, egg plant, basil,kifir lime, garlic & onions, garlica, squash, chile peppers,mint dill, & Im sure I am forgetting some Man just writing that made me realize how green my wifes thumb is ! I am super proud of her as I can barely grow a weed. Edited October 24, 2008 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 USD is in free fall. Watch the Yen and Euro ! After the job report (a mere "fuse" for the huge bomb that we are riding) published today in the US... we are again in "panic mode". Like august 9. And wait for the FED... It's going to be so funny (or tragic) to read again some posts of the "USD lovers brigade"... Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye Nobody's winning...we're ALL losing; the world is losing. Maybe some were wrong with predictions and some were correct, but in the end there are only losers in this one of a kind crisis. LaoPo Everybody is going to get hit somehow. Me, I'm pretty prudent about risk, savings, expenditures, but I'm probably going to be forced to take further protective action. Often times actions designed to mitigate risk have a cost just in transactional slippage alone. Hedging aginst downside means no upside either, and more decisions later, which may turn out to be wrong. That farming thread is sounding better all the time. I wasn't talking investing as such here. I was merely talking about the ''world'' in general. There are no winners at the moment, just losers, whether one will lose today or tomorrow. Many will lose their jobs, house, car, money or otherwise and this will have it's toll quite severely; world wide. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 One footnote to the above post, should the U.S. elect Barrack Obama President, and Nacy Pelosi and Harry Reid get their wish with tougher trade policy then this worlwide recession could possibly last 2 years and the good Professor might wind up being right on that particular count correct! the only way to get ouf of this mess is to elect the war hero of the Hanoi Hilton McCain (quote: "one hundred years of war if necessary!"). U.S. industry will crank up and build cruise missiles, cluster bombs, bunker busters, landmines, F15, 16 and 18, those who are jobless will have jobs again, buy houses and all kind of products from China. and everybody on this planet will live happily ever after. Now you got it Naam! Its good to see that you have come around to the right (sorry for the PUN) way of thinking And no, Sen. McCain did not say one hundred years of war if necessary, what he did say is that the U.S. could have a prescence in Iraq for quite some time just as we have had a prescence in Germany and Japan and Korea for quite some time, and when the reporter badgered McCain further as to just how long quite some time might be McCain blurted out a hundred years! See now it really isn't so difficult to put things in their proper perspective i'm not in the mood for splitting hairs Vic. reason: i am waiting impatiently that Mrs Naam is doling out my late afternoon drink. right now she's hiding incommunicado in her bathroom behind three locked doors. but i'll give her another 4 minutes and 30 seconds before i... play with the dog out of desperation If I were you I would play with the dog or with your wife, but whatever you do definately have that drink and stay away from the television. I have a feeling that today will go down in history as Black Friday a look at the futures in NY confirms your feeling. we should be all happy if only today is called "black friday" but i have that uneasy feeling that more black fridays will follow. not to talk about future black mondays, black tuesdays, black wednesdays and black thursdays which are in the offing You could be right! The S&P is already limit down in the futures and the DOW seems to be as well Today could be hedge fund capitulation day, and it couldn't happen to a nicer group of fellas I smell bargains coming around the corner! Well now that the dust has settled and I have got some sleep, I see that the Tsunami hit the American shores today and instead of engulfing the markets it kind of petered out I am glad that I stayed up all night because I was able to get my hedge bet in when the markets opened, I got NEM at $22.31 and AUY at $3.42! I am not calling for gold to rise, this is just a hedge because my short oil, short gold, long Dollar play is getting long in the tooth (although I do feel that oil is still headed to $50/bbl and that the Pound ,Euro and aussie dollar will continue to head down vs. the Dollar). The goldminers as a group are selling at such a discount to the price of the metal that they also provided an uncommon value at this time. Who knows I might just have my cake and eat it too, if I cover my oil short at $50/bbl and move from Dollars to Yen before the dollar corrects, and then as the Dollar corrects and deflation slowly turns into inflation gold might just rise back to $1000/ounce (OK time to stop because now i am talking my book). If you guys get CNBC over there you might want to check out the fast money segment, there was an intersting interview with Bill Gross's partner in PIMCO, Muhamd El elieria(spelled wrong I am sure) who basically stated that the credit markets were unfrezing rather nicely and that the Treausury money does not even hit until next week so he sees further inprovment, its the closest I have seen to one of these conservative fellows saying that the botttom is in at least here in the U.S., he said that there were still many countries around the globe that will have serious troubles over the coming months. I see the Pound rebounded nicely back at nearly $1.59, so that should help some of those Brit expats out, or give them time to exit the Pound before it falls any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 24, 2008 Share Posted October 24, 2008 I am not calling for gold to rise, Well when I saw that Gold bounce off 682 last night. I thought I could buy some physical this morning at close to support price. Unfortunately it was already up when it opened here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyperdimension Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 (edited) Actions by those above may just be symptomatic relief, like medicine for the common cold (for which there is no cure). They can't stop consumers from spending less nor can they stop investors from reducing risk and leverage. The growth (bubble) of the recent years has been fueled by high debt. We could see years of much lower growth rates from here. Less consumption results in lower company earnings. Less tolerance to risk results in redemptions from managed funds and selling out of most financial markets. These factors could drive stock prices lower. The de-leveraging will take a while. Apart from Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, here are some other relevant articles: The Economic Blue Screen of Death by John Mauldin Deleveraging the Consumer and the New Realities of a Pay-As-You-Go World by Brett Steenbarger The Great Unwind. Wringing Enormous Debt Out of the Financial System by Satyajit Das Nuclear De-Leveraging by Satyajit Das Edited October 25, 2008 by hyperdimension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Muhamd El elieria (spelled wrong I am sure) sometimes you are "right on the money" Vic. it's Mohamed El Erian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyperdimension Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Last night the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) made an all-time low, breaking the 2001 & 2002 & 2003 support levels (around the 20s). I have a small position in XLY (short). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye with all due respect Honourable LivinX your post shows a wee bit of of ignorance. those with some financial/investment experience join the XYZ-currency lovers brigade when they think the right time has come and place a call to their banker "buy forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". when they deem it's opportune to join the XYZ-currency haters brigade their call to their banker is "sell forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". and all want they want to hear from their banker is "YES SIR! GIMME A SECOND OR TWO... [keyboard makes click click click......] DONE SIR!" as simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye with all due respect Honourable LivinX your post shows a wee bit of of ignorance. those with some financial/investment experience join the XYZ-currency lovers brigade when they think the right time has come and place a call to their banker "buy forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". when they deem it's opportune to join the XYZ-currency haters brigade their call to their banker is "sell forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". and all want they want to hear from their banker is "YES SIR! GIMME A SECOND OR TWO... [keyboard makes click click click......] DONE SIR!" as simple as that With all due respect to the honorable Naam, posters like cclub, livinlos, and PCA are wrong so often it is kind of like shooting fish in a barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye with all due respect Honourable LivinX your post shows a wee bit of of ignorance. those with some financial/investment experience join the XYZ-currency lovers brigade when they think the right time has come and place a call to their banker "buy forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". when they deem it's opportune to join the XYZ-currency haters brigade their call to their banker is "sell forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". and all want they want to hear from their banker is "YES SIR! GIMME A SECOND OR TWO... [keyboard makes click click click......] DONE SIR!" as simple as that With all due respect to the honorable Naam, posters like cclub, livinlos, and PCA are wrong so often it is kind of like shooting fish in a barrel haven't we all been wrong MANY times Vic? answer YES or NO? p.s. only a κορυφαῖος (you don't know ancient greek? bad luck my friend!) like the Honourable Señor Don Bingo El Bongo, Esq. is never wrong as far is we common mortals are concerned all that matters is that we are more often right than wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teatree Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Now I am no conspiracy guy but watch this and listen carefully what he says at around 3.13, 3.14.http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902540383&play=1 Muhaaaa ha ha An immensely powerful money interest??? That's just ridiculous, we are all equal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madcow Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 This picture will give you all some idea what is happening in the markets at the moment , basically the blind leading the blind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 This picture will give you all some idea what is happening in the markets at the moment ,basically the blind leading the blind . HOW TRUE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 This picture will give you all some idea what is happening in the markets at the moment ,basically the blind leading the blind . This one shows you why the problem in the mid East is where it is http://flickr.com/photos/12770710@N03/1365928713 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Well well well...ccluby my boy. Got that awefully wrong didn't you I am a member of the "USD lovers brigade" and I am rubbing my hands with glee Well read the our posts and weep. You lost...we won Bye bye with all due respect Honourable LivinX your post shows a wee bit of of ignorance. those with some financial/investment experience join the XYZ-currency lovers brigade when they think the right time has come and place a call to their banker "buy forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". when they deem it's opportune to join the XYZ-currency haters brigade their call to their banker is "sell forward X-currency against Y-currency for Z-date". and all want they want to hear from their banker is "YES SIR! GIMME A SECOND OR TWO... [keyboard makes click click click......] DONE SIR!" as simple as that With all due respect to the honorable Naam, posters like cclub, livinlos, and PCA are wrong so often it is kind of like shooting fish in a barrel look back where I had been wrong psycho. Since beginning of your ego boost I am short your braincells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Oh Boy here we go.... China is getting angry http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLah Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Hi all\, Remember 9/11 and after what they did? They said Terror, terrorism, Al Quida. Cheny and others had a meeting and they concluded that the thread of another terrorist attack was fading. Cheny said whe need another attack. Others said, no too many people are aware of what we did, we need something else. And there you have it, a global fear of financial meltdown. Yes I can back this up with video clips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Hi all\,Remember 9/11 and after what they did? They said Terror, terrorism, Al Quida. Cheny and others had a meeting and they concluded that the thread of another terrorist attack was fading. Cheny said whe need another attack. Others said, no too many people are aware of what we did, we need something else. And there you have it, a global fear of financial meltdown. Yes I can back this up with video clips. Drop some more acid and head back to that crystal ball and try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 Oh Boy here we go....China is getting angry http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024 No not really! This is just rhetoric from some university professor and a few of his students, one can see the same extreme views on many university campuses across America, and I would expect across Europe as well Its funny that these same students and their teachers were not up in arms when the SSE was pumped up to the hyperinflated 6000 level, and the Dollar was in a severly oversold condition and U.S. companies were building factories to employ the chinese middle class? China has a strongly vested interest in the U.S. Dollar, and they will act in their self interest and not in the interest of some radical college students Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 25, 2008 Share Posted October 25, 2008 [No not really! This is just rhetoric from some university professor and a few of his students, one can see the same extreme views on many university campuses across America, and I would expect across Europe as well Its funny that these same students and their teachers were not up in arms when the SSE was pumped up to the hyperinflated 6000 level, and the Dollar was in a severly oversold condition and U.S. companies were building factories to employ the chinese middle class? China has a strongly vested interest in the U.S. Dollar, and they will act in their self interest and not in the interest of some radical college students Yes after reading it I see that too. When someone sent me the link I wondered...... Seemed odd because I know China probably holds as much or more USD than anyone. Why would they walk away from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 26, 2008 Share Posted October 26, 2008 [No not really! This is just rhetoric from some university professor and a few of his students, one can see the same extreme views on many university campuses across America, and I would expect across Europe as well Its funny that these same students and their teachers were not up in arms when the SSE was pumped up to the hyperinflated 6000 level, and the Dollar was in a severly oversold condition and U.S. companies were building factories to employ the chinese middle class? China has a strongly vested interest in the U.S. Dollar, and they will act in their self interest and not in the interest of some radical college students Yes after reading it I see that too. When someone sent me the link I wondered...... Seemed odd because I know China probably holds as much or more USD than anyone. Why would they walk away from it Actually I think Canada hold the most U.S. debt outside the U.S., but China has been catching up these past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VegasVic Posted October 26, 2008 Share Posted October 26, 2008 [No not really! This is just rhetoric from some university professor and a few of his students, one can see the same extreme views on many university campuses across America, and I would expect across Europe as well Its funny that these same students and their teachers were not up in arms when the SSE was pumped up to the hyperinflated 6000 level, and the Dollar was in a severly oversold condition and U.S. companies were building factories to employ the chinese middle class? China has a strongly vested interest in the U.S. Dollar, and they will act in their self interest and not in the interest of some radical college students Yes after reading it I see that too. When someone sent me the link I wondered...... Seemed odd because I know China probably holds as much or more USD than anyone. Why would they walk away from it Actually I think Canada hold the most U.S. debt outside the U.S., but China has been catching up these past few years I have been doing some Canadian Dollar conversions for a potential investment all afternoon and so I had Canada on my mind, please substitute Japan for Canada in that last post My apologies to any Japanese out there, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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