Real Inflation

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

I read recently that the government projected inflation this year at around 6%, and judging by prices I see locally, I would think that to be a bit on the low side.

There are also many posts here about the rising prices, with many people worrying about being able to manage on their pensions.

Take a step back and look at what the average Thai in the Chiang Mai Lamphun areas are faced with, it will put things a bit more in perspective.

About ten years ago, when I was first in this area, a popular crop being grown here was the Lam Yai, or Longan.

Vast areas around these two provinces grew these trees and sold the fruit as their main source of income.

Back then, it was not unusual to get 35-40 baht a kilo for this fruit, on top of that price, all fertilisers etc. were provided free by the company who guaranteed to by the fruit from the farmers.

Basically, all the farmers needed to do was to provide water and pick the crop when ripe.

As a cost comparison, ten or so years ago a litre of diesel was around 11 baht, so for every kilo of Lam Yai a farmer was able to purchase over three litres of diesel.

Now to today - A kilo of Grade AA Lam Yai is fetching 8-10 baht, (back then there was no AA - only A/B/C - even the overipe fruit that had fallen from the trees and had split open fetched 8 baht kilo.) Grade A - 5 baht, and B - 3 Baht, grade C 50 Satang (50 Satang for a kilo of fruit!!)

The cost of fuel is now 26 Baht/litre, so now the average farmer needs to pick almost 300% more fruit to buy 1/3 rd of the fuel - That is the poor getting slammed again!

The same has happened with pork meat - textiles, virtually anything that the individual tries to get ahead with and starts to make mone, is then hijacked by the middlemen who suck every penny they can until the business is no longer viable, the poor lose their income, and in many cases end up in further debt, but what the hel_l, the middle man moves on to prey on someone else.

Only a week or so ago, tons of fruit were dumped in protest at one of the Ampurs. Mangoot - 3 Baht/kilo!!!!

Thaksin even had the cheek to scold the farmers here, warning them not to put the rotten fruit in the bottom of the boxes that were to be exported to China as it was damaging their livelihoods!

I have never seen a Lam Yai farmer exporting his fruit to China - they just sell it at the roadside to the middlemen who grade it and package it for export, but the farmers got the blame.

I sympathise with people here on a fixed pension and worrying about managing - but I think it needs to be put into perspective.

Certainly the middle class Thais are not being hit with the kind of inflation that the poorest and neediest are.

Be interested to here what price Lam Yai is going for in and around Bangkok.

There seems to be an attitude with many middle class or wealthy Thais, that Thailand is in fact Bangkok, and the remaining provinces are simply a cheap source of labour and products, and the people, no more than slaves, or second class citizens.

[lannarebirth]

The thing about Lamyai is, it was a contrived market to begin with. It was primarily introduced for middlemen to make money from the seedling scheme and it was also a good tree to put on deforested lands which then became land claims of the farmer. No, you can't make any money farming it, but the people involved in the tree scheme made money, and the land that was created from the forest that was free, has appreciated quite a lot. Middlemen sellers of the fruit often make money still. The farmer, no he doesn't make any money, but what else is new?

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

I guess the introduction of rubber trees to their "non Native" north is yet another example?

[lannarebirth]

I guess the introduction of rubber trees to their "non Native" north is yet another example?

Now you're catching on.

[lannarebirth]

I guess the introduction of rubber trees to their "non Native" north is yet another example?

To clarify my earlier point. These farmers aren't really farmers. They're in the land business. Farming is the requirement that enables the land to have it's title upgraded.

Edited August 18, 2007 by lannarebirth

[soundman]

Its called land encroachment & more often than not has highly placed politicians who can massage the sysytem behind it. Absolute tradgedy for the few remaining virgin forests in Thailand.

[lannarebirth]

Its called land encroachment & more often than not has highly placed politicians who can massage the sysytem behind it. Absolute tradgedy for the few remaining virgin forests in Thailand.

Yes, some of that is going on too. You look on Doi Suthep now near Chiang mai and you can see more "bald" spots on the mountain. This is done mainly for the benefit of army officers and carried out by their subordinates. That's not exactly what i was talking about however. There are many many areas in Thailand that already have "degraded land" designation. farmers were encouraged to planrt there under one of the many land reform'/title schemes . Obviously that dgrade staus cam in the same way you describe, but it wasn't necessarily done by those who now inhabit the land. In almost all cases it wasn't.

[siamamerican]

Inflation always hits the poor harder, but without the capital the upper classes provide, the poor would be worse off. Unless you believe socialism is the answer.

The rich only need to use a small amount of their resources to buy consumer goods and their untouched wealth continues to grow. The poor use almost all their resources just to cover basic costs. It's is difficult, but not impossible for the poor to better their financial situation.

As for LamYai, it sounds like a supply or demand issue. The middle man provided poor farmers an opportunity to make 40-50 baht a kilo at the onset and now Lam Yai is only demanding 3 baht/kilo. The middle man moves onto more profitable ventures that will inevitably employ the poor. Maybe a few of the poor farmers saved some of the money they made during the peak which they can use to improve their life.

[Mid]

Inflation always hits the poor harder, but without the capital the upper classes provide, the poor would be worse off. Unless you believe socialism is the answer.

The rich only need to use a small amount of their resources to buy consumer goods and their untouched wealth continues to grow. The poor use almost all their resources just to cover basic costs. It's is difficult, but not impossible for the poor to better their financial situation.

As for LamYai, it sounds like a supply or demand issue. The middle man provided poor farmers an opportunity to make 40-50 baht a kilo at the onset and now Lam Yai is only demanding 3 baht/kilo. The middle man moves onto more profitable ventures that will inevitably employ the poor. Maybe a few of the poor farmers saved some of the money they made during the peak which they can use to improve their life.

yep , heaven forbid we should be with out factory fodder ..............................

news flash , you were born naked and you'll die the same way .

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

The Thai farmers save....then I must be the queen of spain!

They made money when things were good but the word "save" does not exist where I am. Borrow, maybe, payback...mmmm not sure....but save? you have to be joking.

And some previous posts suggested that Lam Yie was another scam, originally it was not.

There was a good market in China, (The Chinese use it in a winter soup/medication-and the Lam Yai grown by the Chinese and Taiwanese was definately inferior to the Thai Lam Yai....hence the demand.

It was not a contrived crop as suggested, but was a valid marketing enterprise at the time (some of these trees are 40 years plus) business was there before the vermin found their foothold.

People were able to escape poverty on the work they did , instead now they have been sold down the pan again....Thai Rak Thai...LOL if it wasn't so sad.

Every money making thing in this country is controlled (sooner or later) be it fruit or Ya Baa, by the powerful elite, these people will not allow education for the masses, they will not allow adequate healthcare, they prime the TV with <deleted>, they populate the media with CRAP, to keep the majority "HAPPY" and "Quiet" Subdued in ignorant bliss!!

At the end of the day, you need to question how can a country with an elected (like him or not, Thaksin,but he was elected...by a majority..bought or not) government be overthrown by a coup (detested by the majority)of military incompetents, with the "GREAT" Boonyaratkalin as its spearhead..or should that read PREM... then go and ask yourselves ....Who is in CHARGE OF THE MILITARY???? Doh... how can this happen ? ( I always thought that in a Kingdom the Monarch was in charge.....maybe I am a bit slow...was it a surprise...did no one ask first?) Why has Sondhi not been prosecuted for TREASON?overthrowing the "Kingdoms elected government?? Go read the banned Book...it puts everything here into perspective. I would suggest that "IT SUITS" those in power.

What they have said is..OK the majority of you POOR bastards voted for Thaksin...well, he was starting to be a pain in our elitist <deleted>, so...bring in the little lapdog..woof woof and he is gone...now we have our nice little money making scams going again all welll and good..and by the way..peasants beware..your vote counts for SHIT. The poor are FuXXed again and the Country Of Bangkok once again rules...how did I get from Lam Yai to this.....

Maybe I should shut up..and follow Kren Jai...

[Solosiam]

If it was REAL INFLATION surely farm produce goes up in price, the situation you are reffering to is just supply and demand, too much supply and too little demand, I thought the whole idea of sufficiency was to grow a variety of crops.

[lannarebirth]

Albert,

I didn'y mean to imply that all lamyai farming is based in a contrived scheme to benefit middlemen, suppliers and land reform. Just most of it. What has happened to lamyai is not caused by inflation, if anything it is deflation. There's just too much of it given demand. the reason there's too much of it, is was planted, in many cases for reasons totally unattached to end market demand.

[Tinkelbell]

quoted.........." middlemen who grade it and package it for export".

In NYC, the top rated for logan (lumya-hua-ga-lok) is selling for $9.95/lb.

Which means it costs a customer over $21 for one kilo.

How sad !

[SamuiJens]

Inflation always hits the poor harder, but without the capital the upper classes provide, the poor would be worse off. Unless you believe socialism is the answer.

The rich only need to use a small amount of their resources to buy consumer goods and their untouched wealth continues to grow. The poor use almost all their resources just to cover basic costs. It's is difficult, but not impossible for the poor to better their financial situation.

As for LamYai, it sounds like a supply or demand issue. The middle man provided poor farmers an opportunity to make 40-50 baht a kilo at the onset and now Lam Yai is only demanding 3 baht/kilo. The middle man moves onto more profitable ventures that will inevitably employ the poor. Maybe a few of the poor farmers saved some of the money they made during the peak which they can use to improve their life.

yep , heaven forbid we should be with out factory fodder ..............................

news flash , you were born naked and you'll die the same way .

" Yeah, in bed with a hot chick, I hope!"

Edited August 18, 2007 by SamuiJens

[Mid]

not the Crystal Closet Queen .............

[SamuiJens]

not the Crystal Closet Queen .............

hel_l No!

[siamamerican]

The Thai farmers save....then I must be the queen of spain!

They made money when things were good but the word "save" does not exist where I am. Borrow, maybe, payback...mmmm not sure....but save? you have to be joking.

That was the point I was trying to make. You state they made money when times were good and saved nothing. Did they expect money to start growng on the Lam Yai trees. If you're poor and happy, good for you. If not, at least try to do something about it and stop blaming others.

[Heng]

Inflation always hits the poor harder, but without the capital the upper classes provide, the poor would be worse off. Unless you believe socialism is the answer.

Well said. It's amusing how folks are all pro-capitalism and free market until they notice those who are better off than they are and then suddenly it's 'hey, the well to do should be SHARING and leveling the playing field! But just the folks who are better off than me.'

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

I guess the introduction of rubber trees to their "non Native" north is yet another example?

To clarify my earlier point. These farmers aren't really farmers. They're in the land business. Farming is the requirement that enables the land to have it's title upgraded.

Its called land encroachment & more often than not has highly placed politicians who can massage the sysytem behind it. Absolute tradgedy for the few remaining virgin forests in Thailand.

What you are referring to is a different thing altogether - What I am talking about are genuine farmers with their own land that planted their own trees to make their own living.

As for "Land encroachment" this is typically a ruse used by the wealthier Thais to evict poorer Thais from any piece of land that they fancy, that is not already covered by a Chanote.

As for the tragedy of remaining virgin forests...I think the British were a bit more to blame with their Teak trade than the Thai farmers....no?

quoted.........." middlemen who grade it and package it for export".

In NYC, the top rated for logan (lumya-hua-ga-lok) is selling for $9.95/lb.

Which means it costs a customer over $21 for one kilo.

How sad !

Thanks for the price info in NYC - it is sad...very sad, but some people think there is no DEMAND!

Albert,

I didn'y mean to imply that all lamyai farming is based in a contrived scheme to benefit middlemen, suppliers and land reform. Just most of it. What has happened to lamyai is not caused by inflation, if anything it is deflation. There's just too much of it given demand. the reason there's too much of it, is was planted, in many cases for reasons totally unattached to end market demand.

There is plenty of demand this year, but at a ridiculous price - the smarter Thai farmers are dealing directly with Chinese/Taiwanese buyers - however, this is low profile as most of them prefer to be alive in the near future - try mentioning a "Co - operative" here, you will end up like the Dodo.

It is pure GREED (and Power) nothing more.

What I am getting at is that the whole system here is geared to a small number of wealthy people, who, as long as they are reaping in the cash, don't give a ###### about the average Thai. The farmers are nothing more than a cheap source of profit for them, the country is geared to keeping the majority of people uneducated, and in a sub serviant manner. Thaksin frightened these people, who saw the threat that he was, free market and capitalism. Don't get me wrong, I am no supporter of Thaksin, nor would I say I was a socialist, all I would like to see is a bit of fair play, and a future for my kids here, where with a decent education, they could go on to find a reasonable job, 

ith a reasonable wage, paying taxes and contributing to society. Which, at the e

d of the day will benefit everyone.

Instead, all I see is hard working people slaving for a pittance, trying anything to get ahead, only to be shot down every step of the way by people who don't even need the money! It is all about keeping the poor majority down in their place. Like the Coup, they couldn't stand that Thaksin was popular with the majority, they saw their grasp of power slowly waning, they had to put an end to it,

The majority of people in Thailand count for nothing, their vote means nothing and their lives mean nothing to those who control things, unfortunately, they in most cases accept their lot, had they been a bit less indoctrinated, and prepared to stand up, things may have been different, but this feudal system has been under way for centuries and it will take centuries for change.

Things are changing though- a lot of the false smiles have disappeared, and there is even opent talk against the government, which did not go on here before, so maybe there is a bit of hope.

[esbobes]

If it was REAL INFLATION surely farm produce goes up in price, the situation you are reffering to is just supply and demand, too much supply and too little demand, I thought the whole idea of sufficiency was to grow a variety of crops.

Farmers in the whole world cry no money. Ciy people like to think they are better more schooling etc so they believe them. Also farming all cah business. my familiy farmers up north gets cash and even cry to me.

All frarang love to believe that BG familiy no money if work they have money But easier to cry and get free money.

[Solosiam]

Nobody FORCED the farmers to grow that crop, it was obviously highly priced at some point until recently so it sounds like most farmers swapped over thinking that they could cash-in, then the inevitable happened - too much crop.

Even the poorest farmer in the smallest village understands supply and demand, probably more so than a lot of us do, It has an immediate and very tangible effect for them.

Sounds like some people just saw dollar signs, and made a badly judged call.

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

If it was REAL INFLATION surely farm produce goes up in price, the situation you are reffering to is just supply and demand, too much supply and too little demand, I thought the whole idea of sufficiency was to grow a variety of crops.

Farmers in the whole world cry no money. Ciy people like to think they are better more schooling etc so they believe them. Also farming all cah business. my familiy farmers up north gets cash and even cry to me.

All frarang love to believe that BG familiy no money if work they have money But easier to cry and get free money.

do you speak english?

[AlbertTatlockDeceased]

Nobody FORCED the farmers to grow that crop, it was obviously highly priced at some point until recently so it sounds like most farmers swapped over thinking that they could cash-in, then the inevitable happened - too much crop.

Even the poorest farmer in the smallest village understands supply and demand, probably more so than a lot of us do, It has an immediate and very tangible effect for them.

Sounds like some people just saw dollar signs, and made a badly judged call.

Is that so?

thank you for enlightening me, thank god the poor farmers understand economics...they won't make the same mistake again eh....

[siamamerican]

Nobody FORCED the farmers to grow that crop, it was obviously highly priced at some point until recently so it sounds like most farmers swapped over thinking that they could cash-in, then the inevitable happened - too much crop.

Even the poorest farmer in the smallest village understands supply and demand, probably more so than a lot of us do, It has an immediate and very tangible effect for them.

Sounds like some people just saw dollar signs, and made a badly judged call.

Is that so?

thank you for enlightening me, thank god the poor farmers understand economics...they won't make the same mistake again eh....

So what is the solution?

A farmer doesn't need to have a robust knowledge of economics to understand supply and demand. They planted the trees because of demand and now they realize they are screwed because supply has outpaced demand.

Will they make other mistakes - yes! Should we as a society protect them and make choices for them or at least support the ones that make bad financial decisions - no!

I've made a few financial blunders and will most likely make one or two in the future. I own the decisions and the consequences.

[Solosiam]

Nobody FORCED the farmers to grow that crop, it was obviously highly priced at some point until recently so it sounds like most farmers swapped over thinking that they could cash-in, then the inevitable happened - too much crop.

Even the poorest farmer in the smallest village understands supply and demand, probably more so than a lot of us do, It has an immediate and very tangible effect for them.

Sounds like some people just saw dollar signs, and made a badly judged call.

Is that so?

thank you for enlightening me, thank god the poor farmers understand economics...they won't make the same mistake again eh....

Some will, some wont.

People who have studied for Bsc, Msc, PhD's in economics make mistakes, I'm pretty sure some farmers will as well. When I was last in the village there was a farmer reaping massive profits from cucumber, which had tripled in price locally. When asking the family if they will be growing cucumber the reply was multiple variations of "no point, it was the only cucumber field for 20 miles - now many have planted cucumber fields, next year not expensive".

[LinkPopularity]

They made money when things were good but the word "save" does not exist where I am. Borrow, maybe, payback...mmmm not sure....but save? you have to be joking.

so, you're saying that in fact they have nobody else to blame but themselves ?