The Commerce Ministry has launched a “Resilience” strategy aimed at protecting the country’s export sector from global risks including geopolitical conflicts and trade polarisation. The policy seeks to strengthen Thailand’s ability to maintain export growth while navigating an increasingly uncertain global trading environment. Officials say the plan focuses on diversification, trade agreements and adapting to emerging economic trends.

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The strategy encourages exporters to expand into new markets such as the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, reducing reliance on a limited number of major trading partners. It also prioritises accelerating Free Trade Agreement negotiations with key partners including the European Union and the United Arab Emirates. Officials say these agreements could provide tariff advantages and help attract foreign investment from companies seeking new production bases.

Thailand’s exports performed strongly in 2025 despite global tensions, reaching a record USD339.635 billion, or THB11.138 trillion. This represented growth of 12.9% compared with 2024, far exceeding the government’s initial target of 2–3%. In January 2026, exports continued to expand, reaching USD31.5731 billion, the highest monthly value on record, rising by 24.4% and marking the 19th consecutive month of growth.

However, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) warned that exports face both risks and opportunities in 2026. Forecasts suggest exports could range from a 3.1% contraction to 1.1% growth compared with 2025, with a midpoint projection of a 1.1% decline. In value terms, exports are expected to total between USD329.1063 billion and USD343.371 billion.

Recent global events have added pressure to international trade. The outbreak of war in the Middle East between the United States and Iran has disrupted shipping routes and increased logistics costs following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil and natural gas prices, combined with financial market volatility, have further complicated the outlook for global trade.

TPSO analysis also shows Thailand’s exports remain closely tied to its largest markets. In 2025, the United States, China, Japan, India and Malaysia accounted for 48.6% of total export value, up from 38.8% in 2016. The top three markets alone increased their share from 31.9% to 40.0%, highlighting the country’s strong dependence on major trading partners.

Nantapong Chiralerspong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said geopolitical rivalry and global polarisation are forcing medium-sized economies such as Thailand to carefully balance their trade strategies. “Maintaining economic balance among the major powers and ensuring that exports continue to serve as a strong and sustainable engine of the Thai economy over the long term,” he said.

The Nation reported that the ministry’s resilience framework is built on three pillars. These include diversifying export markets and raw material sources, accelerating FTA negotiations, and promoting exports in sectors aligned with global trends such as Future Food, environmentally friendly products under the BCG ( Bio-Circular-Green, Thailand's national strategy for sustainable development) Model, and digital commerce.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 9 Mar 2026

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The Commerce Ministry’s latest export strategy is good in theory, but I suggest that it overlooks several long‑term challenges that will shape Thailand’s competitiveness far more than short‑term trade measures.

First, Thailand’s rapidly aging population and very low birth rate mean the labour force is shrinking. This will affect productivity, labour costs, and the ability of export‑oriented industries to expand.

Second, regional competition is intensifying. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia continue to attract major investment in electronics, EVs, and advanced manufacturing. Thailand can’t rely on past advantages indefinitely.

Third, the strong baht remains a structural hurdle for exporters, especially SMEs. Currency competitiveness is a real factor when neighbouring economies have weaker or more flexible currencies.

If Thailand is to shed its title "The sick man of ASEAN" then any long‑term export strategy will need to address demographics, regional competition, and currency pressures to keep it competitive in the years ahead.

There are quite a few trouble-making Ladyboys Thailand could export...

How can you protect Thai exports, when you cannot protect Thai products and producers from (illegal) Chinese imports?

The government, authorities, regulators, etc. allow illegal Chinese products and producers into Thailand and to openly operate in Thailand (with official protection?); these products and producers are putting Thai businesses out of work.