Massive US naval forces were sent from the sout china sea and the carribean to the current hot spot.

What's left in the south china sea,I wonder?

With diminished US forces in the region, Xi Xi Ping might see this as an "opportunity to dance" with regard to Taiwan. Something like "we will get Taiwan never cheaper than now as the cat is out of the house".

Any thoughts/facts?

Unfortunately for Xi, the timing is out: He has recently - over several months - been pursuing a purge of the leadership of the Chinese military, from the very top down. With major effects on morale and command 'n control.

And he now has oil-supply problems because of the Iran war. And Trump could easily extend that indefinitely.

So not a good time for him to launch a once-in-a-lifetime thrust across the strait to Taiwan.

9 minutes ago, swissie said:

Massive US naval forces were sent from the sout china sea and the carribean to the current hot spot.

What's left in the south china sea,I wonder?

With diminished US forces in the region, Xi Xi Ping might see this as an "opportunity to dance" with regard to Taiwan. Something like "we will get Taiwan never cheaper than now as the cat is out of the house".

Any thoughts/facts?

Good question;

Depending upon how the Iran war continues to evolve, the near future might be the most opportune time to bring Taiwan to its knees.

As you say, the US is and will be sending much more resources to the ME.

Now would be the perfect time to blockade Taiwan, and cut off all chip fabrication on the island.

If this happened, perhaps one of Trump's screws might come completely loose.

Yes, just a naval blockade would do the trick at this time, one can imagine.

26 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

Good question;

Depending upon how the Iran war continues to evolve, the near future might be the most opportune time to bring Taiwan to its knees.

As you say, the US is and will be sending much more resources to the ME.

Now would be the perfect time to blockade Taiwan, and cut off all chip fabrication on the island.

If this happened, perhaps one of Trump's screws might come completely loose.

Yes, just a naval blockade would do the trick at this time, one can imagine.

The effect of a "blockade" would take a long time. Risking that eventually Donald would send the ships back after he declared "victory" in the ME.

I rather think quick "military action". Taiwan is a mountanous country, in the capital of Taipei government power/industrial power is concentrated. The rest is just "countryside", not worth bothering with much. Get Taipei and you got Taiwan, including chip fabrication.

30 minutes ago, swissie said:

The effect of a "blockade" would take a long time. Risking that eventually Donald would send the ships back after he declared "victory" in the ME.

I rather think quick "military action". Taiwan is a mountanous country, in the capital of Taipei government power/industrial power is concentrated. The rest is just "countryside", not worth bothering with much. Get Taipei and you got Taiwan, including chip fabrication.

I think that actual invasion is not necessary.

This is the point.

It would not take much to blockade Taiwan.

Just begin sending a few missiles overflying the island, and all commercial air traffic would cease.

A few missile boats circling the island, and tanker traffic to the island would cease.

No need to invade Taiwan to bring Taipei to its knees.

Oil reserves would last about 10 to 20 days.

All exports would stop, as well.

The locals would go crazy, much sooner than you think.

I was there the last time China shot missiles near the island, and it was a major disruption.

I forget the year, but quite some time ago.

This is the way to force Taiwan to accept China's terms for One Country and One System.

I was there at the time, and it was a real circus.

And, China fired only a very few, and one landed in sea, somewhere around PengHu.

Nobody was willing to board an aircraft at the time.

Coming back from Guam, that evening, the flight was totally empty except for me an two other passengers.

Free champagne, and as much as we could drink.

It was a blast.

I almost stood in the island and did the Monster Mash.

China couldnt send a single merchant ship without US doing what it wishes with it. China isnt going to risk the trade, and the only trade left is with russia

21 minutes ago, mordothailand said:

China couldnt send a single merchant ship without US doing what it wishes with it. China isnt going to risk the trade, and the only trade left is with russia

There are so many faults to find with your argument. But how about these 2 words: rare earths.