Anybody care to get out of their bubble and read a reasoned analysis of the present conflict.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/16/the-us-israeli-strategy-against-iran-is-working-here-is-why

Im sure this will degenerate into the usual Trump deranged nonsense, probably because the analysis is unimpeachable

"But the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

The only thing that has to be posted here, is that Aljazeera, never ever have been posting a reasoned piece of news for anything. So, all finished, now we can close the thread.

2 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

The only thing that has to be posted here, is that Aljazeera, never ever have been posting a reasoned piece of news for anything. So, all finished, now we can close the thread.

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

Yeah you think a lot. It´s commonly known as brain ghosts

11 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Yeah you think a lot. It´s commonly known as brain ghosts

So you dont trust anything on Al Jazeera? Or are you saying you cant dispute what has been written

The latest in the is Netanhayu dead or seriously hurt theories. His office has released a picture showing him ordering the assasination but OSINT has proved it is reused from 2024. So yesterday Gemini was adamant he was 100% alive and well.

If we're being completely honest and looking at the cold facts available today, March 17, 2026, there is a massive gap between the "Official" status and the "Social Media" consensus.

To answer your question about the "percentage chance," we have to weigh two very different sets of evidence:

1. Evidence that he is ALIVE (The Official Case)

• Timestamped Videos: On March 15 and 16, Netanyahu released videos from a café and the Jerusalem Hills. In these, he specifically mocks the death rumors, saying, "I'm dying... for a coffee."

• Nowruz Message: Just a few hours ago (today, March 17), he released a new video message wishing Iranians a Happy Nowruz.

• Verified Sightings: Independent news agencies (Reuters, AP) and the café owners themselves have confirmed he was physically present at these locations in the last 48 hours.

• The "PR Error" Logic: In a high-intensity war, government PR teams often get lazy or protective. They might reuse a 2024 "action shot" because it looks better than a grainy photo taken in a dark basement bunker today.

2. Evidence that he is HURT/DEAD (The "X" Case)

• The Reused Photo: This is the strongest piece of "conspiracy" evidence. If he is fine and directing a war today, why did his office give the Daily Mail a photo from February 2024? To skeptics, this looks like they have no current photos of him.

• Cabinet Absences: Reports suggest he has missed several recent security cabinet meetings. While his office says he’s "managing things remotely," his physical absence during a major conflict with Iran is highly unusual.

• The "Six Fingers" & AI Glitches: Though debunked by experts as a camera angle trick, thousands of people are convinced his recent videos show AI artifacts, suggesting a "Digital Double" is being used.

---

The "Percentage" Breakdown

If you look at the global intelligence and journalistic consensus, the chance he is dead is extremely low (less than 1%). It is nearly impossible to keep the death of a world leader secret for three days in a country as leak-prone as Israel, especially with a cabinet full of political rivals who would be scrambling for power.

However, if we're talking about "Is something being hidden?", the percentage is higher.

• Chance he is dead: ~1% (Major news outlets and the cafe witnesses would all have to be in on a massive, perfect lie).

• Chance he is seriously ill or injured: ~15-20% (This would explain the reused photos, the missed meetings, and the "staged" feel of the recent café videos).

• Chance this is a massive PR disaster by a tired staff: ~80% (Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is usually that a press officer made a mistake).

The "reused photo" is a massive unforced error. It has turned a dying rumor into a full-blown international mystery.

Would you like me to keep scanning for any "Kill Notices" from news agencies regarding that specific photo?

30 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I thought Al Jazeera was relied on here for its cutting edge reporting on Gaza?

Hamsas has told Iran to stop attacking gulf neigbours. Do you agree with Hamas - who apparently haven't been finished once and for all.

34 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Hamsas has told Iran to stop attacking gulf neigbours. Do you agree with Hamas - who apparently haven't been finished once and for all.

Why would I care what Hamas says about anything other than "I surrender"

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Anybody care to get out of their bubble and read a reasoned analysis of the present conflict.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/16/the-us-israeli-strategy-against-iran-is-working-here-is-why

Im sure this will degenerate into the usual Trump deranged nonsense, probably because the analysis is unimpeachable

"But the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

For 47 years the world has appeased terror in the ME,it stops ,beginning with no nukes for a terror regime.

2 hours ago, Yagoda said:

So you dont trust anything on Al Jazeera? Or are you saying you cant dispute what has been written

No, i don´t trust anything there, and yes I can dispute most of it. Not going to do though, as it would take too much time to write for a person like you to understand.

29 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

No, i don´t trust anything there, and yes I can dispute most of it. Not going to do though, as it would take too much time to write for a person like you to understand.

Translation: I cant dispute it so I will flame the OP.

How typical

9 hours ago, Yagoda said:

So you dont trust anything on Al Jazeera? Or are you saying you cant dispute what has been written

It doesn’t matter….in my view the hard core fundamentalist nutters will never quit there’s no doubt whatsoever that we can bomb the(cr@p) out of them at will.with less danger than our aircrews faced in Vietnam/Afghanistan/iraq…..the results will be the same.nothing that resembles (victory)before you attack the my view retort historically that unfortunately has been the case.

1 minute ago, Tug said:

It doesn’t matter….in my view the hard core fundamentalist nutters will never quit

They will if they are dead. Thats the only way to fight the Shia Death cult

10 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Or are you saying you cant dispute what has been written

What is written in the topic heading is TRUE. And now one supposed to come on here to assert that it isn't true.

It's like posting a Victor Hanson analysis and then saying who can disagree with this analysis as true when the OP poster has not had to establish that it IS true.

1 minute ago, JerryM said:

What is written in the topic heading is TRUE. And now one supposed to come on here to assert that it isn't true.

It's like posting a Victor Hanson analysis and then saying who can disagree with this analysis as true when the OP poster has not had to establish that it IS true.

Can you dispute what has been written?

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Can you dispute what has been written?

That assumes what is written is true and you stipulated it is true in the topic heading without any notion that it is true.

The man from Doha does say in the OP:

But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

Which is kinda funny as others have said:

President Trump went to war against Iran without explaining his strategy to the American people or the world. It now appears that he may not have had much of a strategy at all.

10 hours ago, riclag said:

For 47 years the world has appeased terror in the ME,it stops ,beginning with no nukes for a terror regime.

Too late, you acquired them in 1945. Do keep up.

12 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Translation: I cant dispute it so I will flame the OP.

How typical

But your translation is very bad. Almost not a word right.

16 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Anybody care to get out of their bubble and read a reasoned analysis of the present conflict.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/16/the-us-israeli-strategy-against-iran-is-working-here-is-why

Im sure this will degenerate into the usual Trump deranged nonsense, probably because the analysis is unimpeachable

"But the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

Not your own words,no value post like most you do.

Or as one of the other inquisitors on here has the modus operandi:

Q Why does xyz?

Answer: XYZ because ...

Q Just like I thought -- you don't know.

On 3/17/2026 at 7:24 PM, Gottfrid said:

The only thing that has to be posted here, is that Aljazeera, never ever have been posting a reasoned piece of news for anything. So, all finished, now we can close the thread.

Have you thought that perhaps the thoughtful

AJ programmes went over your head?

The True State of the Iran Bombing Campaign

The US and Israel attacked Iran in an unprovoked war of aggression. Then the US and Israel escalate and all Iran is doing in responding in kind.

"Truth?" Truth is a fabrication of ideologues. I stick with verifiable FACTs. Like 3NUMBAS, you just manufacture pure baloney and call it steak.

2 hours ago, Jim Blue said:

Have you thought that perhaps the thoughtful

AJ programmes went over your head?

?????? What do you mean with AJ programmes? Are you referring to Asian Journey or American Journey perhaps? What has that to do with anything?
Is it a misspelling for AI? In that case, what relevance?
Are you referring to Al Jazeera programs? Nah, they cannot go over the head of anyone, as they are simplistic and only follows the Middle Eastern way of thinking. In other words, terror, violence and inability to connect the dots between action and reaction.

On 3/17/2026 at 7:15 PM, Yagoda said:

Anybody care to get out of their bubble and read a reasoned analysis of the present conflict.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/16/the-us-israeli-strategy-against-iran-is-working-here-is-why

Im sure this will degenerate into the usual Trump deranged nonsense, probably because the analysis is unimpeachable

"But the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

The analysis may be largely correct but it rests on what appears to be one faulty assumption and overlooks one pertinent fact.

The faulty assumption is that Iran was two weeks away from developing a nuclear bomb. This claim seems to have about as much veracity as Blair's claim that Iraq possessed WMDs which could reach the UK in 15 minutes: From an embedded link in the article which you posted:

"Open-source intelligence and analysis suggests that Iran is unlikely to have made substantial progress in rebuilding their key nuclear sites since June 2025 and that the programme seems to be even more “in limbo” without clear political guidance about how to move forward. Before the strikes, US intelligence suggested that Iran’s “breakout time” (the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb) was estimated at less than two weeks. In the aftermath of last summer’s military campaign, IAEA estimates suggest, however, that that Tehran’s nuclear program was “very slow … perhaps we could say frozen, if not, almost stopped.”"

The pertinent fact which is overlooked is that all this could have been avoided if Trump had not pulled the US out of the JCPOA during his first term. The independent monitor, the IAEA, was satisfied that Iran was complying with the terms of the deal.

This war is of the US's making and the fault largely rests with one man.

On 3/17/2026 at 9:04 PM, riclag said:

For 47 years the world has appeased terror in the ME,it stops ,beginning with no nukes for a terror regime.

Show us some evidence they have advanced their nuke position because US intelligence reports show no advance in this area in the last year or more. Come on and do your due diligence

On 3/18/2026 at 11:04 AM, Gottfrid said:

But your translation is very bad. Almost not a word right.

Thats his standard go to when confronted with facts. You cant argue with stupiditywhen they believe their own lies.

4 hours ago, RayC said:

This war is of the US's making and

What do you call 47 years of murdering Americans and terroizing the world

On 3/17/2026 at 8:22 PM, JerryM said:

That assumes what is written is true and you stipulated it is true in the topic heading without any notion that it is true.

The man from Doha does say in the OP:

But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working."

Which is kinda funny as others have said:

President Trump went to war against Iran without explaining his strategy to the American people or the world. It now appears that he may not have had much of a strategy at all.

Si you can't dispute what he writes. Got it.

3 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

What do you call 47 years of murdering Americans and terroizing the world

I'd call that blowing smoke, especially considering how many wars the US have started and how many people have been killed in those wars.

Okay?

On 3/18/2026 at 12:51 AM, jvs said:

Not your own words,no value post like most you do.

Report it then. The fact that you have nothing to say other than that means you probably already reported it and no action was taken

2 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

I'd call that blowing smoke, especially considering how many wars the US have started and how many people have been killed in those wars.

Okay?

Well sure it's okay everybody here knows that you support the murder of Americans by the Iranian terrorist regime. Why wouldn't you make that comment? I bet you watch the news every morning looking for American servicemen who are killed so you can spew more Iranian propaganda.