Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif

A fragile ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the United States has paused one of the most dangerous confrontations in the Middle East in years.

After 40 days of strikes, missile barrages and economic disruption, thousands are dead and vast damage has been inflicted across the region. Yet the conflict’s deeper consequences are geopolitical — shifting alliances, shaking energy markets and redrawing the balance of influence far beyond the battlefield.

Iran: Bruised but Unbowed

Iran suffered devastating losses.

Airstrikes destroyed military infrastructure and energy facilities, while senior leaders — including Ali Khamenei — were killed alongside thousands of civilians, according to rights monitors. Yet the core structure of the Iranian state remains intact.

Tehran’s most consequential move came at sea. By restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the regime briefly weaponised a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil. The pressure helped push Washington toward a ceasefire without forcing Iran to surrender.

United States: Military Success, Strategic Limits

President Donald Trump declared the campaign a victory.

US strikes inflicted heavy damage on Iranian missile systems, naval assets and parts of its nuclear programme. But the broader strategic goals — regime change or decisive political leverage over Tehran — remain out of reach.

The war also strained alliances. Several European governments refused to support the operation, deepening tensions inside NATO.

Israel: Tactical Edge, Lingering Threat

Israel demonstrated its ability to strike deep into Iranian territory and significantly degrade its military capabilities.

Yet the conflict also exposed vulnerabilities. Iranian missiles penetrated Israel’s air defences, killing civilians and putting sustained pressure on its security infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon continues — raising the risk of a prolonged regional conflict.

China and Russia: Strategic Openings

The conflict created opportunities for China and Russia.

China benefits from Washington diverting military resources to the Middle East, potentially weakening US focus in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing has also continued buying discounted Iranian oil.

For Russia, higher energy prices boosted revenues while global attention shifted away from its war in Ukraine.

Gulf States and Europe: Caught in the Crossfire

Energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates came under attack, exposing the vulnerability of the Gulf’s economic hubs.

Europe, meanwhile, absorbed the economic shock. Rising oil prices and shipping disruptions pushed inflation higher and strained already fragile economies.

Pakistan: Diplomatic Spotlight

One country emerged with new diplomatic momentum: Pakistan.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif helped broker the ceasefire and is expected to host follow-up talks. Acting as a go-between for Washington and Tehran has strengthened Islamabad’s standing as a regional mediator.

For now, the guns have fallen silent. But the war’s deeper shifts in power — economic, diplomatic and military — are only beginning to unfold.

Iran war: Who gained ground, who lost influence

What ceasefire? What oil flows?

Just heard Hesketh bragging how it only took 10% of the US's entire military might to crush.... obliterate.... destroy.... decimate.... blah, blah, blah...

MAGA . ...and get Pakistan to sort the mess out for

you ! Unbelievable !

I spotted a MAGA cap !!

That guy must get into INTENSE conversations when people chat him up.

2 hours ago, NanLaew said:

What ceasefire? What oil flows?

Just heard Hesketh bragging how it only took 10% of the US's entire military might to crush.... obliterate.... destroy.... decimate.... blah, blah, blah...

It must be tough being both anti war and pro war at the same time.

3 hours ago, NanLaew said:

What ceasefire? What oil flows?

Just heard Hesketh bragging how it only took 10% of the US's entire military might to crush.... obliterate.... destroy.... decimate.... blah, blah, blah...

Probably meant that the US has only 10 % missiles left.

I thought the ceasefire was between the USA and Iran - the terrorist state Israel is still attacking Lebanon.

Remove expansionist Israel from the equation, especially the Zionists in Israel, then you have a chance for some peace and stability.

The Bibi's Likud Party (an openly Zionist party) evolved out of the Irgun Party, an openly terrorist organisation of the 1940s, which targeted the British, including non-combatant women and children, in Palestine.

How many times has the US said it does not support terrorists, but it supports Likud!!! Maybe the Zionists control Washington.

Of course, I may be pushing my own "propaganda" - so do your own research.

Well, in my view, as long as Israel and Iran have opposite regimes the conflict will continue and both of them know it. I can't see that changing anytime soon.

After years of Trump condemning the former 7-nation (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, along with the European Union) Iran Nuclear Agreement negotiated under President Obama which Trump declared the "worst treaty in history", and under the first Trump administration the US subsequently pulled out, the US spent over billion dollars a day on a 40-day war largely spending the US weapons stockpile (which will need to be replaced seperately from that billion dollars), killing tens of thousands, destroying infrastructure not only in Iran, but among the Gulf States, and Iran with this deal, gets everything it wanted, including continuing its nuclear weapons enrichment program, funding to rebuild Iran's infrastructure damaged in the war, and dropping all sanctions.

Winners:

Iran

Democrats Running in the Mid-Terms

Losers:

Trump

Vance

Hegseth

Republican Party

America's Image

America's Budget Deficit

America's Social Programs

Israel is the winner because it has expanded into seized territory and will continue to do so under it's "divine right". It also is not honoring the recent temporary truce.

The winner is geography. It's Iran's primary weapon of asymmetric deterrence.

The world's most powerful navy can't keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Iran won. Period. Though they may have suffered a lot of damage the regime remained intact, they still have their nuclear materials, they are still able to sell their oil and America has turned Iran from a pariah state into one that is the recipient of a great deal of sympathy right now. But that's what Trump does, he takes relationships and ruins them, and turns them inside out. That's why he doesn't have a single friend in the world. Only butt kissers. 95% of the planet despises him like never before. He has his 70 million Americans who will stand by him even if he rapes, murders, and pillage, but besides them he is despised.

In the process he is also made China infinitely more influential than it used to be, and he has turned dozens of neutral or allied nations away from the US and towards China, with his extreme lack of trustworthiness, stability, pettiness, juvenile vengeance, and reliability. Not to mention his total lack of sanity.

Too early to nominate winners and losers. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the USA will not suffer, relatively speaking, if oil supplies from the Middle East region completely dry up. It has almost limitless reserves of oil and gas both onshore and offshore.

1 hour ago, Thingamabob said:

Too early to nominate winners and losers. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the USA will not suffer, relatively speaking, if oil supplies from the Middle East region completely dry up. It has almost limitless reserves of oil and gas both onshore and offshore.

Oil and gas are fungible. That means when their prices go up around the world, the price in the USA does as well, and by the same amount.

If the USA has limitless reserves, why would it buy 50% of its oil from Canada?

3 hours ago, newnative said:

Winners:

Iran

Democrats Running in the Mid-Terms

Losers:

Trump

Vance

Hegseth

Republican Party

America's Image

America's Budget Deficit

America's Social Programs

Winner: Putin, because Trump always listens to daddy.

3 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

I thought the ceasefire was between the USA and Iran - the terrorist state Israel is still attacking Lebanon.

Remove expansionist Israel from the equation, especially the Zionists in Israel, then you have a chance for some peace and stability.

The Bibi's Likud Party (an openly Zionist party) evolved out of the Irgun Party, an openly terrorist organisation of the 1940s, which targeted the British, including non-combatant women and children, in Palestine.

How many times has the US said it does not support terrorists, but it supports Likud!!! Maybe the Zionists control Washington.

Of course, I may be pushing my own "propaganda" - so do your own research.

So if Israel stopped the bombs you believe Hezbollah would stop too. All lovey dovey and no wars.

5 hours ago, Rockyroad said:

It must be tough being both anti war and pro war at the same time.

It's easy to be anti-BS.

3 hours ago, parallelman said:

Well, in my view, as long as Israel and Iran have opposite regimes the conflict will continue and both of them know it. I can't see that changing anytime soon.

Just looking at news about an hour old, it seems that Iran has/is going to, close the strait of Hormuz because Irael carried out a bombing raid in Lebanon. And I have just seen that the 10 point plan from Iran has been dumped by the White House as being unworkable. WH negotiators say that the 15 point plan they have put on the table is the only plan. The next day or so will probably if Iran will comply but as I said earlier, the conflict is more likely to continue. Sad, but I think true.

Winner is Iran no regime change which was the initial aim in the first place

Loser the UK and most Countries whose economies rely on oil

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Oil and gas are fungible. That means when their prices go up around the world, the price in the USA does as well, and by the same amount.

If the USA has limitless reserves, why would it buy 50% of its oil from Canada ?

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Oil and gas are fungible. That means when their prices go up around the world, the price in the USA does as well, and by the same amount.

If the USA has limitless reserves, why would it buy 50% of its oil from Canada?

I spent 30 years plus working in the oil business for an oil major, a large part of which was as a trader in crude oil and bulk products. I would make only two points. One, Canada supplies 25% of the USA's crude requirement as part of a general trade agreement based on mutual benefit to both countries. Two, you should update yourself on the large increase currently taking place in onshore and offshore drilling/ exploration in the USA, and on the effect that will have on the volume of it's already substantial oil reserves.

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Oil and gas are fungible. That means when their prices go up around the world, the price in the USA does as well, and by the same amount.

If the USA has limitless reserves, why would it buy 50% of its oil from Canada?

6 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

I spent 30 years plus working in the oil business for an oil major, a large part of which was as a trader in crude oil and bulk products. I would make only two points. One, Canada supplies 25% of the USA's crude requirement as part of a general trade agreement based on mutual benefit to both countries. Two, you should update yourself on the large increase currently taking place in onshore and offshore drilling/ exploration in the USA, and on the effect that will have on the volume of it's already substantial oil reserves.

Am I incorrect in stating oil is fungible?

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

Am I incorrect in stating oil is fungible?

You are correct, as are many other commodities.

My take Adminitration stop bragging and finish the job whatever it takes I understand they have to cease fire but know if they don't more criticism but in end Iran has no intent.

2 hours ago, shackleton said:

Winner is Iran no regime change which was the initial aim in the first place

Loser the UK and most Countries whose economies rely on oil

But the UK has wind, loads of it. I just saw Yvette Cooper, their foreign secretary, on the telly proving it.

Iran is winning. The Straits of Hormuz was free to transfer shipping now thanks to Trump and Israel, Iran will will be getting Millions in shipping fees to pass through. Most damage in Iran will be paid for by US tax payers another win for Iran. What have America won ?

7 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

Too early to nominate winners and losers. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the USA will not suffer, relatively speaking, if oil supplies from the Middle East region completely dry up. It has almost limitless reserves of oil and gas both onshore and offshore.

Though that is the case theoretically, perhaps you can explain to us why gas at the pump has gone up well over a dollar per gallon all across America, despite the fact that the US sources very little oil from the Middle East. Trumpflation for sure.

1 hour ago, BarraMarra said:

Iran is winning. The Straits of Hormuz was free to transfer shipping now thanks to Trump and Israel, Iran will will be getting Millions in shipping fees to pass through. Most damage in Iran will be paid for by US tax payers another win for Iran. What have America won ?

Iran has 72% food inflation. Verge of chaos and collapse. Iran has won nothing at all. Now more likely than ever to get bombed for 30 years if they don't change.

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Iran won. Period. Though they may have suffered a lot of damage the regime remained intact, they still have their nuclear materials, they are still able to sell their oil and America has turned Iran from a pariah state into one that is the recipient of a great deal of sympathy right now. But that's what Trump does, he takes relationships and ruins them, and turns them inside out. That's why he doesn't have a single friend in the world. Only butt kissers. 95% of the planet despises him like never before. He has his 70 million Americans who will stand by him even if he rapes, murders, and pillage, but besides them he is despised.

In the process he is also made China infinitely more influential than it used to be, and he has turned dozens of neutral or allied nations away from the US and towards China, with his extreme lack of trustworthiness, stability, pettiness, juvenile vengeance, and reliability. Not to mention his total lack of sanity.

I agree entirely- Trump has ruined the reputation of the USA and made the Chinese President look like a statesman.

As fir the language he uses in his social media - it is the language not of diplomacy but of the gutter- which is where he belongs

5 hours ago, NanLaew said:

It's easy to be anti-BS.

What do you do for a living?