International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Trumps incapability to gain trust in the bond markets cost the US-Tax payers Billions of $...

In addition, to elect a chairman for the FED who is probably more dependent on Trump than on economic demands is also not really helpful.

Now, what I wonder is:

When will the rising yield effect the stock market?

On 7/31/2026 at 11:07 PM, zappalot said:

International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Trumps incapability to gain trust in the bond markets cost the US-Tax payers Billions of $...

In addition, to elect a chairman for the FED who is probably more dependent on Trump than on economic demands is also not really helpful.

Now, what I wonder is:

When will the rising yield effect the stock market?

I think it has already begun. The Yen carry trade is finished. Japan and other countries are dumbing bonds, and leveraged accounts are being forced to liquidate positions in US stocks.. A lot of the damage has already been done, though. Stocks may look expensive, but are they really? Or is it the dollar that is losing its value in real terms?

Other than the stock market the bond markets do not rebound - at all.

The decline stopped briefly on Monday, August 3.

But as of today, August 4, 2026, US-Bonds are under pressure again.

I do not hope so, but there is a raising risk of a heavy sell off. And the stock market can not ignore rising yields forever...

Edited August 4Aug 4 by zappalot

When a single nation tops $40 Trillion in debt and $1 Trillion in annual interest payments on that debt this is to be expected. For the this time I am glad to be an old man because when the "chickens come home to roost" I will be long gone to an afterlife or not.

On 7/31/2026 at 11:07 PM, zappalot said:

International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Not really.

A wave of debt issuance from companies building out AI infrastructure has flooded the bond market with alternative offerings.

Smart corrective move by the Trump administration.

On 8/4/2026 at 4:58 PM, zappalot said:

Other than the stock market the bond markets do not rebound - at all.

The decline stopped briefly on Monday, August 3.

But as of today, August 4, 2026, US-Bonds are under pressure again.

I do not hope so, but there is a raising risk of a heavy sell off. And the stock market can not ignore rising yields forever...

The world cannot afford for the USA to go belly up. And the decline in the bond market will slow for that reason. The world still needs USD dollars. With any luck, it'll be a slow erosion of value.

As for the stock market? Stocks are priced simply as a function of the decline in the real value of the dollar.

On 8/20/2026 at 3:20 PM, jas007 said:

The world cannot afford for the USA to go belly up.

Just do the math. The day will come they can not pay the interest for their 40 Trillion plus debt, and it is growing fast.

I am not saying it will happen soon, I just do not know. 1 year? 5? 10 or more? I guess I will have a problem as well then, so I do not hope it but it is unavoidable.

Look, how many times did this maniac in the WH brag that he would reduce and even eliminate the debt. Nothing, zero, he does not even try :-)

There is no way unless the rich got heavily taxed...

On 8/20/2026 at 1:13 PM, Cameroni said:

Not really.

A wave of debt issuance from companies building out AI infrastructure has flooded the bond market with alternative offerings.

Smart corrective move by the Trump administration.

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

14 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

The AI crash will be worse than the Dot com crash

When you look closely at what is happening, you will notice it are only a few select players that are financing the lot.

Nvidia, the main player for AI semiconductors, so they create new billion dollar deals weekly with new players, and finance them themselves. What could go wrong?

If a few of those newcomers fail, Nvidia will be in trouble, which mean the whole house of cards will implode.

Today I read this article, so where do you think this will end?

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/micron-ceo-sanjay-mehrotra-says-120342908.html

Micron Technology Chairman, President, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Thursday that artificial intelligence has upended the economics of the memory business, a sector that has historically lurched between periods of shortage and oversupply. "Today there is no AI without memory. AI systems need more memory. They need higher performance memory. They need lower power memory," Mehrotra told CNBC on "Mad Money." "So, the value of memory, that equation has totally changed."

He added that Micron still cannot produce enough to satisfy current demand. "All our customers across our end markets will buy everything that we make," he said, adding that data-center customers currently want roughly 50% more supply than Micron is able to commit.

53 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

AI will bring substantial productivity gains. Will some companies be overvalued, possibly, so everyone who invests in them will have to do good due diligence.

However, these AI companies are very solid, some of them, investing and being invested in with a clear purpose and goal.

There's a lot of Cassandras, and Michael Burry has been predicting crashes for 18 years.

Let's see.

The excrement will soon hit the proverbial fan. There will be a bond offer where all the buyers stay home. And that's the day when Trump does a Roosevelt and seizes all the privately held gold by resurrecting something similar to Executive Oeder 6102.

His administration has already paved the road with his Executive order 14241 in which gold and silver are described as a mineral: from the Order" (a) "Mineral" means a critical mineral, as defined by 30 U.S.C. 1606(a)(3), as well as uranium, copper, potash, gold, and any other element..."

I suggest we all stock up on Baked Beans and Mama Noodles now, because there's a world of hurt just around the corner.

Pretty sure where bust will hit,. AI capex investment is grossly unrelated to the potential earnings with some extremely dodgy accounting practices trying to mask the circular exposure. If you're in a pension scheme or have a 401k, good luck with that.

I'm cashed up (except for gold) waiting for 99% of them to become penny stocks. There can only be one winner in the AI game, but they are investing as though they will all be winners. Do the math, it ain't pretty.

6 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

The excrement will soon hit the proverbial fan.

It will, just when...

The USD to Thai Baht slid from over 33 to now 32.67. This was just in one day. I wonder how far down it will slide?

8 hours ago, zappalot said:

Just do the math. The day will come they can not pay the interest for their 40 Trillion plus debt, and it is growing fast.

I am not saying it will happen soon, I just do not know. 1 year? 5? 10 or more? I guess I will have a problem as well then, so I do not hope it but it is unavoidable.

Look, how many times did this maniac in the WH brag that he would reduce and even eliminate the debt. Nothing, zero, he does not even try :-)

There is no way unless the rich got heavily taxed...

For sure, there's a tipping point and then the prices go wacko. At that point they may simply do what they always do. Create more money. Monetize the debt. How long will it be before a Big Mac costs $200?

I wonder if they have other tricks up their sleeve? At one point, they were going to figure out ways to "tokenize" all real assets on a blockchain. This move would increase liquidity and expand the pool of marketable capital and would be deflationary in some ways.

It wouldn't surprise me if they tried something along those lines. What token would they use? XRP? Something else?

8 hours ago, zappalot said:

Just do the math. The day will come they can not pay the interest for their 40 Trillion plus debt, and it is growing fast.

I am not saying it will happen soon, I just do not know. 1 year? 5? 10 or more? I guess I will have a problem as well then, so I do not hope it but it is unavoidable.

Look, how many times did this maniac in the WH brag that he would reduce and even eliminate the debt. Nothing, zero, he does not even try :-)

There is no way unless the rich got heavily taxed...

Isn't the conclusion that the USA (and UK) will not be able to afford the interest demanded so they will just print money. Easy to do but will cause massive inflation. Stock up on real assets now.

37 minutes ago, jas007 said:

For sure, there's a tipping point and then the prices go wacko. At that point they may simply do what they always do. Create more money. Monetize the debt. How long will it be before a Big Mac costs $200?

I wonder if they have other tricks up their sleeve? At one point, they were going to figure out ways to "tokenize" all real assets on a blockchain. This move would increase liquidity and expand the pool of marketable capital and would be deflationary in some ways.

It wouldn't surprise me if they tried something along those lines. What token would they use? XRP? Something else?

I just looked into this for a second and it seems like the big institutions like BlackRock are already at work on tokenization projects. It's not so simple, though. They have to develop "smart" tokens so as to address underlying legal and regulatory issues, which can vary with the nature of whatever assert they tokenize.

One think I've learned is that you cannot predict the market consistently.

Reality is too complex to predict future outcomes.

Who predicted Gold going down 13% since February? Nobody. That's who.

On 8/20/2026 at 1:13 PM, Cameroni said:

Smart corrective move by the Trump administration.

Really? So far for this month Bond yield and with it the money the government has to pay for its ballooning debt stays higher then at any given time under Obama or even Biden.

The "smart corrective move" did not change the bond market even a bit... (for a few hours, ok, but not for longer).

Just now, zappalot said:

Really? So far for this month Bond yield and with it the money the government has to pay for its ballooning debt stays higher then at any given time under Obama or even Biden.

The "smart corrective move" did not change the bond market even a bit... (for a few hours, ok, but not for longer).

Yes. A very smart corrective move. The Treasury stepped in to stabilize the fixed-income market after a severe, global bond sell-off pushed the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields to near 20-year highs. Investors panicking over structural shifts caused yields to skyrocket.

It was against this backdrop that the intervention succeeded. Short term, but also longer term this panic has now been averted.

Rather than expanding the overall quarterly buyback budget ($38 billion), the Treasury concentrated its existing envelope strictly at the long end where market dysfunction was most acute. Quite smart.

Great work by the Trump administration.

Where is this correction, anyone invested in Bonds must be on high alert since there is no correction, maybe in some peoples imagination and I can not rule out a correction is coming, but as of now, there is none... We see the same market behavior after the intervention as before the Trump admin intervention. NO winning so far..

Scott Bessent has taken extraordinary, multi‑front action to stabilise the U.S. bond market:

• Doubling long‑bond buybacks

• Hinting at cutting long‑term issuance

• Intervening in currency markets

• Threatening even larger buybacks

• Preparing a fiscal consolidation plan

These moves make him the most interventionist Treasury Secretary in decades.

No signs of panic then?

And one more thing, after the intervention in the market: yields on the shorter end are even higher than before the intervention...

So all of Bessents action were useless... Whilst some will deny the truth, the yields show clearly, that so far nothing changed to the better. Hopefully the real disaster of a real crash will be far out, but with the current administration doing everything they can to destroy the worlds trust in the US I am not really hopeful...

With Donnie's inflation rate of 4% burning up your cash or Trump stable coin (for those of us paying off the Boss), a one year CD rate of 4% is just break even.

No wonder they're advertising 10.5% bond funds(?) or maybe it was insurance companies betting on data centers (what could go wrong)

That's starting to approach 70s inflation rates

What's next? Disco back in style?

3 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

With Donnie's inflation rate of 4% burning up your cash or Trump stable coin (for those of us paying off the Boss), a one year CD rate of 4% is just break even.

No wonder they're advertising 10.5% bond funds(?) or maybe it was insurance companies betting on data centers (what could go wrong)

That's starting to approach 70s inflation rates

What's next? Disco back in style?

Just looked......big short positions being taken by the hedge funds on AI infrastructure companies........that is scary.

20 minutes ago, MIke B Bad said:

Just looked......big short positions being taken by the hedge funds on AI infrastructure companies........that is scary.

The math doesn't add up for the infrastructure. Billions being spent, and yet everyone should know that the eventual returns will not justify the investments. The data centers produce a product, and that product is becoming cheaper by the day. A commodity. And no one yet seems to realize the impact of Quantum computers.

By the way, Quantum stocks are still dirt cheap. Give them a couple of years.

Bookmark this post and thank me later.

3 minutes ago, jas007 said:

The math doesn't add up for the infrastructure. Billions being spent, and yet everyone should know that the eventual returns will not justify the investments. The data centers produce a product, and that product is becoming cheaper by the day. A commodity. And no one yet seems to realize the impact of Quantum computers.

By the way, Quantum stocks are still dirt cheap. Give them a couple of years.

Bookmark this post and thank me later.

On it....now where's my cheque book.....555

1 minute ago, MIke B Bad said:

On it....now where's my cheque book.....555

Don't take my word for it. Do your own due diligence. I'm just trying to give people a place to look.

Investments can be crazy. Sometimes, some of the most insane sounding ideas actually work out. Remember the early days of Bitcoin? When you could buy one Bitcoin for fractions of a dollar? Or, a year later, in the spring of 2011, when you had to pony up $3 or so? And people laughed. Get out your calculator and do the math. I'll wait.

I recently spent two years accumulating Palantir in the $6 to $15 range, mostly under $10. People laughed. They said it was nothing more than a "consulting" company. It's' now over $170 and headed higher.

Just now, jas007 said:

Don't take my word for it. Do your own due diligence. I'm just trying to give people a place to look.

Investments can be crazy. Sometimes, some of the most insane sounding ideas actually work out. Remember the early days of Bitcoin? When you could buy one Bitcoin for fractions of a dollar? Or, a year later, in the spring of 2011, when you had to pony up $3 or so? And people laughed. Get out your calculator and do the math. I'll wait.

I recently spent two years accumulating Palantir in the $6 to $15 range, mostly under $10. People laughed. They said it was nothing more than a "consulting" company. It's' now over $170 and headed higher.

Yes....true....I bought into bitcoin in 2016 and 99% of my colleagues had no clue what I was talking about.

I also built up a large holding in a company that was going to make me a millionaire......that went well.....NOT.

I only invest in a range of funds and avoid individual shares now........except SpaceX.....in at the asking price, out at $210.

43 minutes ago, MIke B Bad said:

Yes....true....I bought into bitcoin in 2016 and 99% of my colleagues had no clue what I was talking about.

I also built up a large holding in a company that was going to make me a millionaire......that went well.....NOT.

I only invest in a range of funds and avoid individual shares now........except SpaceX.....in at the asking price, out at $210.

That's the safe route. Nothing wrong with that. You can still make a killing, over time.

The last time I bought Bitcoin was in 2017. I think I paid around $1100. Even then, no one I knew had the slightest idea what I was talking about. One of my friends I didn't even bother with. He would have dismissed me as being a nut case.

On another occasion that same month, I went out to lunch with a friend and his little brother, who was a CEO of a publicly traded Biotech company and a veteran of the Silicon Valley venture capital world. I mentioned Bitcoin and the Blockchain. Neither guy had a clue. They both eventually figured it out, months later when the price was substantially higher.

It pays to be early.

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

That's the safe route. Nothing wrong with that. You can still make a killing, over time.

The last time I bought Bitcoin was in 2017. I think I paid around $1100. Even then, no one I knew had the slightest idea what I was talking about. One of my friends I didn't even bother with. He would have dismissed me as being a nut case.

On another occasion that same month, I went out to lunch with a friend and his little brother, who was a CEO of a publicly traded Biotech company and a veteran of the Silicon Valley venture capital world. I mentioned Bitcoin and the Blockchain. Neither guy had a clue. They both eventually figured it out, months later when the price was substantially higher.

It pays to be early.

Yep.

I'm still in, but playing with house money now......hoping "the pattern" is going to repeat on cue.......late 2026?