International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Trumps incapability to gain trust in the bond markets cost the US-Tax payers Billions of $...

In addition, to elect a chairman for the FED who is probably more dependent on Trump than on economic demands is also not really helpful.

Now, what I wonder is:

When will the rising yield effect the stock market?

On 7/31/2026 at 11:07 PM, zappalot said:

International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Trumps incapability to gain trust in the bond markets cost the US-Tax payers Billions of $...

In addition, to elect a chairman for the FED who is probably more dependent on Trump than on economic demands is also not really helpful.

Now, what I wonder is:

When will the rising yield effect the stock market?

I think it has already begun. The Yen carry trade is finished. Japan and other countries are dumbing bonds, and leveraged accounts are being forced to liquidate positions in US stocks.. A lot of the damage has already been done, though. Stocks may look expensive, but are they really? Or is it the dollar that is losing its value in real terms?

Other than the stock market the bond markets do not rebound - at all.

The decline stopped briefly on Monday, August 3.

But as of today, August 4, 2026, US-Bonds are under pressure again.

I do not hope so, but there is a raising risk of a heavy sell off. And the stock market can not ignore rising yields forever...

Edited August 4Aug 4 by zappalot

When a single nation tops $40 Trillion in debt and $1 Trillion in annual interest payments on that debt this is to be expected. For the this time I am glad to be an old man because when the "chickens come home to roost" I will be long gone to an afterlife or not.

On 7/31/2026 at 11:07 PM, zappalot said:

International trust in the USA is eroding. Heavy bond market selling led to new lows not seen so far under the current administration.

The world start to realize there sits a weak leader who is good with words only, not so much with gaining trust of the ones who normally buy US-Bonds.

Not really.

A wave of debt issuance from companies building out AI infrastructure has flooded the bond market with alternative offerings.

Smart corrective move by the Trump administration.

On 8/4/2026 at 4:58 PM, zappalot said:

Other than the stock market the bond markets do not rebound - at all.

The decline stopped briefly on Monday, August 3.

But as of today, August 4, 2026, US-Bonds are under pressure again.

I do not hope so, but there is a raising risk of a heavy sell off. And the stock market can not ignore rising yields forever...

The world cannot afford for the USA to go belly up. And the decline in the bond market will slow for that reason. The world still needs USD dollars. With any luck, it'll be a slow erosion of value.

As for the stock market? Stocks are priced simply as a function of the decline in the real value of the dollar.

On 8/20/2026 at 3:20 PM, jas007 said:

The world cannot afford for the USA to go belly up.

Just do the math. The day will come they can not pay the interest for their 40 Trillion plus debt, and it is growing fast.

I am not saying it will happen soon, I just do not know. 1 year? 5? 10 or more? I guess I will have a problem as well then, so I do not hope it but it is unavoidable.

Look, how many times did this maniac in the WH brag that he would reduce and even eliminate the debt. Nothing, zero, he does not even try :-)

There is no way unless the rich got heavily taxed...

On 8/20/2026 at 1:13 PM, Cameroni said:

Not really.

A wave of debt issuance from companies building out AI infrastructure has flooded the bond market with alternative offerings.

Smart corrective move by the Trump administration.

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

14 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

The AI crash will be worse than the Dot com crash

When you look closely at what is happening, you will notice it are only a few select players that are financing the lot.

Nvidia, the main player for AI semiconductors, so they create new billion dollar deals weekly with new players, and finance them themselves. What could go wrong?

If a few of those newcomers fail, Nvidia will be in trouble, which mean the whole house of cards will implode.

Today I read this article, so where do you think this will end?

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/micron-ceo-sanjay-mehrotra-says-120342908.html

Micron Technology Chairman, President, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Thursday that artificial intelligence has upended the economics of the memory business, a sector that has historically lurched between periods of shortage and oversupply. "Today there is no AI without memory. AI systems need more memory. They need higher performance memory. They need lower power memory," Mehrotra told CNBC on "Mad Money." "So, the value of memory, that equation has totally changed."

He added that Micron still cannot produce enough to satisfy current demand. "All our customers across our end markets will buy everything that we make," he said, adding that data-center customers currently want roughly 50% more supply than Micron is able to commit.

53 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes, although the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble that's about to burst.

AI will bring substantial productivity gains. Will some companies be overvalued, possibly, so everyone who invests in them will have to do good due diligence.

However, these AI companies are very solid, some of them, investing and being invested in with a clear purpose and goal.

There's a lot of Cassandras, and Michael Burry has been predicting crashes for 18 years.

Let's see.

The excrement will soon hit the proverbial fan. There will be a bond offer where all the buyers stay home. And that's the day when Trump does a Roosevelt and seizes all the privately held gold by resurrecting something similar to Executive Oeder 6102.

His administration has already paved the road with his Executive order 14241 in which gold and silver are described as a mineral: from the Order" (a) "Mineral" means a critical mineral, as defined by 30 U.S.C. 1606(a)(3), as well as uranium, copper, potash, gold, and any other element..."

I suggest we all stock up on Baked Beans and Mama Noodles now, because there's a world of hurt just around the corner.

Pretty sure where bust will hit,. AI capex investment is grossly unrelated to the potential earnings with some extremely dodgy accounting practices trying to mask the circular exposure. If you're in a pension scheme or have a 401k, good luck with that.

I'm cashed up (except for gold) waiting for 99% of them to become penny stocks. There can only be one winner in the AI game, but they are investing as though they will all be winners. Do the math, it ain't pretty.

6 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

The excrement will soon hit the proverbial fan.

It will, just when...