Ukraine’s drone war Is closing In on Putin’s Russia

Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is bringing the war deep inside Russia — and putting one of Moscow’s most important weapons factories under growing pressure. The strike on the Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk was another reminder that Tatarstan, hundreds of miles from the front, is no longer beyond Kyiv’s reach.

The next target could be far more important

Just north of Nizhnekamsk sits the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, home to Russia’s huge production complex for Geran attack drones and Gerbera decoys. The factory, established with Iranian assistance in 2022, reportedly produces between 170 and 190 drones a day for strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Satellite imagery analysed by CSIS has shown rapid expansion, with the site growing from two buildings in 2021 to around 116. The scale-up has turned Yelabuga into one of Russia’s leading centres for unmanned weapons production.

Kyiv has the range — but not yet the knockout blow

Ukraine has already struck the complex in 2024 and 2025, but the damage was limited. The sprawling site is heavily defended, while newer facilities have been hardened against air attacks.

Experts say the factory’s labour-intensive production methods also make it difficult to cripple with a handful of strikes. Unlike a conventional industrial plant, there is no single piece of machinery whose destruction would bring production to a halt.

A war of attrition could still hurt Moscow

Repeated attacks could nevertheless disrupt output, particularly if Ukraine targets the electricity and energy infrastructure supporting the complex. Workers may also be reluctant to report for duty if the site becomes a regular target.

Another pressure point is the supply chain. Rail links from China reportedly bring components including microchips, alloys and engines into the zone, creating a potential target for Western diplomatic and economic pressure on Beijing.

Tatarstan gives Putin another problem

The stakes extend beyond drones. Tatarstan is a wealthy, Muslim-majority region with a history of separatist sentiment and has become an important source of manpower and industry for Russia’s war.

A sustained campaign disrupting its economy could expose tensions Moscow has worked hard to contain. For Putin, the danger is no longer simply losing equipment — it is allowing the reality of his war to reach a region he cannot afford to destabilise.

The secretive Russian drone hub at the top of Ukraine’s hit list