8 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Prediction: Within 4 weeks Carney will come crawling back to the negotiation table, apologising and begging for a trade deal.

Yes, negotiations within 4 weeks. You'll see them as Carney crawling back, more objective persons will see it as trump caving in.

On 8/22/2026 at 4:35 PM, impulse said:

Canada exported $556.6 Billion in 2025, with 72.5% going to the USA. ($452.6B)

The USA exported $2,873 Billion in 2025, with 14% going to Canada. ($426.3B)

 

With a population of 40.5 million, that’s $11,200 in exports to the USA for each Canadian.

With a population of 349 million, that’s $1,230 in exports to Canada for each American.

 

Who has whom by the short and curlies? I propose that it isn't the Canucks

 

I’d suggest Carney and Ford get back to the table and do something about that $26B deficit. It's only fair.

Does that include the cheap oil and gas that Canada has been exporting to the US for years? Much of which was processed and sold on for a profit.

Now at a time when everything is getting more expensive, the US will have to pay, and is already having to pay more for everything it imports, including Aluminium.

And if true, where does the US get off trying to tell Canada who and who not they can make deals with?

That is Trump realising he f**ked up the US's almost monopolised importation relationship with Canada, and are worried that they will now have to join the queue and compete price wise with the rest of the world for Canada's commodities....largest market or not.

4 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Does that include the cheap oil and gas that Canada has been exporting to the US for years? Much of which was processed and sold on for a profit.

Now at a time when everything is getting more expensive, the US will have to pay, and is already having to pay more for everything it imports, including Aluminium.

And if true, where does the US get off trying to tell Canada who and who not they can make deals with?

That is Trump realising he f**ked up the US's almost monopolised importation relationship with Canada, and are worried that they will now have to join the queue and compete price wise with the rest of the world for Canada's commodities....largest market or not.

We’ll see who yields first hey?? Don’t count Sir Donald out so fast, he always has a trick or two up his sleeves. Peace

23 minutes ago, phetphet said:

And if true, where does the US get off trying to tell Canada who and who not they can make deals with?

You mean like when Trump told Mexico that it if they started "building" EVs, they couldn't be imported into the USA?

If Canada suddenly started "building" cheap EVs or solar panels out the wazoo, I'd be suspicious, too. That's called trans-shipping. And that's not acceptable to Trump.

You can look at the MSM clickbait headlines. But you and I have no clue what was actually said in those meetings.

12 minutes ago, impulse said:

I have no clue

I will agree with you on that at least.

Carney's looking to the future, not the past like Trump. Nobody can trust the us any more. I even hear they're developing a nuclear weapon program to defend themselves in the arctic (and elsewhere) as the US is no longer trustable on defence.

---

AI Overview

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has aggressively pursued global trade diversification, signing over 20 international deals across five continents. This global outreach accelerated after trade talks with the United States collapsed over steep tariffs and restrictive sovereignty demands, prompting Canada to pivot toward markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Key Overseas Trade and Energy Initiatives

• United Arab Emirates (UAE): Secured a swift comprehensive trade agreement in a record 47 days, boosting tariff-free market access.

• ASEAN and Indo-Pacific: Advanced negotiations for a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement, alongside letters of intent for energy, nuclear, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) collaboration with countries like Malaysia.

• China and Qatar: Signed strategic memorandums of understanding (MOUs) focused on energy resource development, civil nuclear cooperation, and uranium trade.

• European Union: Expanded economic frameworks with the EU, with plans for deeper talks to reinforce bilateral economic and security partnerships.

Strategic Context

• Reducing U.S. Dependence: Carney stated that Canada is actively strengthening its economy to become less dependent on the United States, emphasizing that "no deal is better than a bad deal" after walking away from restrictive U.S. terms.

• Consumer Reach: The Prime Minister of Canada noted that these international maneuvers grant Canadian businesses tariff-free access to roughly 1.5 billion consumers globally, with ambitions to expand.

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

Does that include the cheap oil and gas that Canada has been exporting to the US for years? Much of which was processed and sold on for a profit.

The main reason that the US gets a good price on Canadian oil is that so much of it is from the oil sand projects. It's heavy (thick and viscous), dirty and hard on refineries. It's sold into US refineries that spent $billions of extra capital to handle it. If they sold it to other customers around the world, they'd get a low price, too. There are charts of the differentials paid on the world market for various grades of crude.

It sure doesn't help Canada that the Greens have fought tooth and nail to keep from building pipelines that would allow them to ship to the east or west coast so they could sell to other countries. It's only recently that they have a pipeline to the west coast, built mostly to ship to California refineries, but some is going to China. Good for them. We can use Venezuela's heavy crude.

Edited August 24Aug 24 by impulse

5 hours ago, RayC said:

It's a bit disingenuous to imply that switching energy suppliers is as easy as you suggest. While the EU has cut its' reliance on Russia's energy from 45% of the total to 12%, this change has occurred over 4 years.

Direct crude oil and refined petroleum imports from Russia to Germany stand at 0% now. It's true that it takes a bit of time, it took Germany about 11 to 12 months to achieve this.

Clearly this is not an insurmountable problem, however, the US could find non-Canadian sources for oil.

Canada replacing 70% of its exports with other markets than the US is a much bigger problem for Canada.

As we saw with the UK trying to replace the EU, this has not been achieved even now and is unlikely to ever be achieved. The UK simply relies too much on the EU for its exports. And Canada is in an even worse position.

Canada can not EVER and will not EVER be able to replace the USA as a market to which it dumps 70% of its exports. So it is very clear what will happen, Carney will come crawling back to the negotiation table and make concessions as he did before he cancelled previous "hard man" measures.

27 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Carney's looking to the future, not the past like Trump. Nobody can trust the us any more. I even hear they're developing a nuclear weapon program to defend themselves in the arctic (and elsewhere) as the US is no longer trustable on defence.

With over 70% of Canadian exports going to the USA, a good equivalent would be Walmart not allowing white people into their stores, confident that minorities and immigrants will eventually replace them. Maybe they will. But there's going to be some hard decades in the meantime.

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Yes, negotiations within 4 weeks. You'll see them as Carney crawling back, more objective persons will see it as trump caving in.

Of course there will be negotiations again. Carney already showed he talks tough but then cancelled tariffs when the US got tough. Trump did likewise, he'd already made concessions to Canada to secure a deal. He'll be livid now that Canada did not sign, but whilst he would win a trade war easily as Canada cannot replace the 70% of exports it ships to the US, no matter how it tries, the pain the US will get from the trade war will be for nothing. So both parties will want to negotiate again.

Edited August 24Aug 24 by Cameroni

7 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Carney will come crawling back to the negotiation table and make concessions as he did before he cancelled previous "hard man" measures.

Carney's probably going to try to hold out until after the midterms. He doesn't care how much he hurts Canadians and their businesses.

36 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Carney's looking to the future, not the past like Trump. Nobody can trust the us any more. I even hear they're developing a nuclear weapon program to defend themselves in the arctic (and elsewhere) as the US is no longer trustable on defence.

---

AI Overview

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has aggressively pursued global trade diversification, signing over 20 international deals across five continents. This global outreach accelerated after trade talks with the United States collapsed over steep tariffs and restrictive sovereignty demands, prompting Canada to pivot toward markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Key Overseas Trade and Energy Initiatives

• United Arab Emirates (UAE): Secured a swift comprehensive trade agreement in a record 47 days, boosting tariff-free market access.

• ASEAN and Indo-Pacific: Advanced negotiations for a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement, alongside letters of intent for energy, nuclear, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) collaboration with countries like Malaysia.

• China and Qatar: Signed strategic memorandums of understanding (MOUs) focused on energy resource development, civil nuclear cooperation, and uranium trade.

• European Union: Expanded economic frameworks with the EU, with plans for deeper talks to reinforce bilateral economic and security partnerships.

Strategic Context

• Reducing U.S. Dependence: Carney stated that Canada is actively strengthening its economy to become less dependent on the United States, emphasizing that "no deal is better than a bad deal" after walking away from restrictive U.S. terms.

• Consumer Reach: The Prime Minister of Canada noted that these international maneuvers grant Canadian businesses tariff-free access to roughly 1.5 billion consumers globally, with ambitions to expand.

No, Prime Minister Mark Carney has not succeeded in reducing Canada’s core structural export dependence on the United States. Despite launching aggressive diplomatic trade missions to pivot toward Asia, Europe, and an alliance of mid-level economic powers, nearly 70% of Canadian exports remain tightly bound to the American market.

---

🔎 Why Structurally Reducing Dependence is Failing

Carney's political platform heavily pushes for diversification and long-term economic independence, but three immovable factors tie Canada to the U.S.:

• The Paradox of Global Appeal: Under Carney, Canada has executed extensive trade missions to nations like Japan to attract foreign infrastructure and mining investments. However, internal officials concede that global investors are primarily attracted to Canada because of its preferential tariff-free access to the U.S. market via CUSMA.

• Deep Supply Chain Integration: Highly dependent domestic sectors—most notably Ontario’s automotive and steel manufacturing hubs—rely on an integrated border pipeline that cannot be easily or rapidly redirected to alternate global buyers.

• Energy Inelasticity: The U.S. remains the nearly exclusive purchaser of Canadian crude oil, natural gas, and electricity. While Carney has weighed leveraging energy export controls or taxes as a political weapon, Canada lacks the deep-water pipeline infrastructure required to easily ship those vast quantities overseas instead.

---

1 minute ago, impulse said:

Carney's probably going to try to hold out until after the midterms. He doesn't care how much he hurts Canadians and their businesses.

Yes, he may be looking at his own political future rather than Canada's economic future, and drag out making concessions. But that Canada will make concessions is almost as certain as taxes. Just a question of when.

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

worried that they will now have to join the queue and compete price wise with the rest of the world for Canada's commodities....

While Canada would very much like to sell its oil to other countries, Canada lacks the deep water pipeline infrastructure to ship vast quantities overseas. So Canada will be stuck for quite some while selling oil to the US.

7 minutes ago, impulse said:

Carney's probably going to try to hold out until after the midterms. He doesn't care how much he hurts Canadians and their businesses.

Canada doesn't seem to be doing that bad by comparison...

Carney talked about electricity supplies being leverage, but that is a complete myth. If Canada were to weaponize electricity supplies it would destroy Canadian companies supplying the electricity.

While Canada holds the physical supply leverage, weaponizing it would trigger intense economic self-harm and structural damage at home:

• Devastating Utility Revenue Losses: Canadian provincial crown corporations rely on U.S. export revenue to subsidize domestic power rates. Quebec's long-term export contract with New York alone is valued at up to $34 billion USD. Violating these contracts would cost Hydro-Québec and BC Hydro billions of dollars and lead to costly legal penalties.

• Wasted Energy Capacity: Electricity cannot be easily stored in massive quantities. If Canada abruptly stops exporting, provincial utilities would be forced to literally dump excess power, artificially spilling water over hydro dams or shutting down production capacity without earning a return.

• Winter Grid Vulnerability: The cross-border relationship is a two-way street. While Canada exports more annually, provinces like Quebec rely on importing cheap American electricity during peak winter hours when local heating demands threaten to overwhelm Canadian grids. Cutting ties would leave Canadian consumers exposed during extreme cold snaps.

35 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Clearly this is not an insurmountable problem, however, the US could find non-Canadian sources for oil.

Crude is a fungible commodity. If Canada were to sell 100% of their oil to (for example) Japan, that means Japan's not buying it elsewhere, and the countries that used to sell to Japan would have to put that excess capacity on the market. And America could buy that crude.

Besides, we have Venezuela now... Their crude is almost as nasty as that oil sands crap.

7 minutes ago, impulse said:

Crude is a fungible commodity. If Canada were to sell 100% of their oil to (for example) Japan, that means Japan's not buying it elsewhere, and the countries that used to sell to Japan would have to put that excess capacity on the market. And America could buy that crude.

Besides, we have Venezuela now... Their crude is almost as nasty as that oil sands crap.

Yes, and there is Mexico, Latin America, Brazil, Guyana, Iraq, it is certainly possible to replace Canadian oil. The issue is the volume and it would cost US refineries billions in retooling to adjust to different oil potentially. All this does take some time.

So I do think Canada and the US will negotiate again.

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

Yes, and there is Mexico, Latin America, Brazil, Guyana, Iraq, it is certainly possible to replace Canadian oil. The issue is the volume and it would cost US refineries billions in retooling to adjust to different oil potentially. All this does take some time.

Every few years, refineries shut down to do what they call a turnaround, where they proactively replace equipment before it wears out and fails. That would be the most cost effective time to adjust their processes to handle lighter crude than that nasty oil sand stuff. It would still cost $$, but it's certainly not a deal killer if Canadian oil dried up.

Edit: And if they were forced to do that, especially for political reasons, they'd be loathe to spend the money to switch back again.

Edited August 24Aug 24 by impulse

14 minutes ago, impulse said:

Every few years, refineries shut down to do what they call a turnaround, where they proactively replace equipment before it wears out and fails. That would be the most cost effective time to adjust their processes to handle lighter crude than that nasty oil sand stuff. It would still cost $$, but it's certainly not a deal killer if Canadian oil dried up.

And it's not just the oil that could cost billions of dollars, if Canada were crazy enough to use electricity again to target the US that would drive energy prices up in the US and disrupt US manufacturing.

Whilst the US would ultimately win any trade war Canada can inflict billions of Dollars of damage on the US and cause manufacturing disruptions.

The electricity issue in particular could be seen as a national security issue. If you add in the billions of dollars of damage, I wonder if Trump is seriously considering the military option. Just invade Canada, take all the resources and put an end to all the uncertainty.

The US has been very nice in not invading Canada, but if it wanted it could take all the resources by force and put tough man Carney in a cell next to Maduro.

Maybe cheaper for the US.

The U.S. would need to deploy 780,000 to 975,000 soldiers to occupy Canada’s population of over 40 million.

The continued occupation would also cost a few billion, but then you have all the resources of Canada to pay for it. That's 33 trillion USD. A much richer jackpot than Iraq.

Canada ranks fourth in the world for total natural resource wealth behind Russia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Why not just take this massive jackpot?

Edited August 24Aug 24 by Cameroni

Because 90% of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the U.S. border, a conventional military victory would take the U.S. mere days.

The invasion would not begin with tanks crossing the border, but with a massive, unannounced cyberoffensive and air campaign.

U.S. Cyber Command would immediately knock out Canada's power grids, satellite communications, banking systems, and government networks.

Utilizing overwhelming technological superiority, U.S. aerospace forces would permanently ground the Royal Canadian Air Force within hours. The U.S. Navy would immediately blockade Canada's Atlantic and Pacific coastlines to halt international trade and prevent any foreign allies from sending assistance.

With Canada's communications severed, the U.S. military would launch a highly coordinated ground invasion across five distinct geographic fronts to carve up and isolate the country:

The Capture of Ottawa and Montreal: Heavily armored divisions would push north from Vermont and New York to capture Canada’s capital (Ottawa) and financial hub (Montreal), successfully decapitating federal governance.

Seizing the Power Grid: Ground forces would cross the Niagara and Detroit borders to rapidly seize Ontario's massive automotive manufacturing sector and critical hydroelectric power infrastructures.

Severing the Trans-Canada Logistics: Mechanized units marshaled in North Dakota would drive straight north to conquer Winnipeg, effectively cutting the country's main trans-continental rail and highway systems in half and separating Western Canada from the East.

The Atlantic Containment: U.S. forces would push aggressively into Nova Scotia to secure Halifax—Canada's most vital deep-water naval port—to prevent European allies from using it as a staging ground for a counter-offensive.

Of course the frozen guerilla war that would ensue after the US secures victory within a week would be the real test.

US national debt is 40 trillion USD. With the 33 trillion USD of Canada's natural resources, less occupation costs, this could go a long way to paying off all of America's national debt and make it more manageable.

Maybe worth considering for Americans.

15 hours ago, Cameroni said:

You gotta laugh.

Yes, you and some others may laugh, but for how long? Trump's leadership will end, but his decisions will be remembered for a long time.

"Yangzijiang Shipbuilding in China is demonstrating unprecedented efficiency in the production of ultra-large container vessels. A prime example is the MSC Irina, currently the world's largest container ship with a capacity of 24,346 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—roughly 12,173 forty-foot containers. Remarkably, the timeline from the start of construction to final delivery was approximately 16 months." [source: AI].

With an increasing number of vessels of this magnitude, or even larger, currently on order and under construction, the global shipping industry is poised for a significant increase in capacity. This expansion is likely to drive down freight costs, potentially enhancing the global competitiveness of export-oriented nations, such as Canada, by reducing the cost of reaching markets beyond the United States. Canada and other nations may just have the last laugh.

22 hours ago, bunnydrops said:

It doesn't really seem fair to me.

No one said getting shaken down by the Trump Mafia is fair, Sweet Cheeks. 😄

24 minutes ago, CharlesHolzhauer said:

Yes, you and some others may laugh, but for how long? Trump's leadership will end, but his decisions will be remembered for a long time.

"Yangzijiang Shipbuilding in China is demonstrating unprecedented efficiency in the production of ultra-large container vessels. A prime example is the MSC Irina, currently the world's largest container ship with a capacity of 24,346 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—roughly 12,173 forty-foot containers. Remarkably, the timeline from the start of construction to final delivery was approximately 16 months." [source: AI].

With an increasing number of vessels of this magnitude, or even larger, currently on order and under construction, the global shipping industry is poised for a significant increase in capacity. This expansion is likely to drive down freight costs, potentially enhancing the global competitiveness of export-oriented nations, such as Canada, by reducing the cost of reaching markets beyond the United States. Canada and other nations may just have the last laugh.

So you are pinning your hopes on China mass producing freight shipping vehicles in order to bring down export costs for Canada. That is hilarious. And how will Canada then ship its vast quantities of oil to other buyers? You do realize Canada needs an underwater pipeline infrastructure for that it just does not have? Or do you suggest all the oil be loaded onto Chinese shipping containers? You crack me up. Lol.

And how will a massive fleet of Chinese freight vessels magically ramp up Canada's position in the rest of the world? Canada basically isn’t in the game when it comes to seeking new, expanded export markets in the Americas, Europe, Asia, or Africa. A massive fleet of Chinese vehicles won't change that. Why should China buy Canadian made products when it can buy German ones? You're dreaming.

Edited August 24Aug 24 by Cameroni

28 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

So you are pinning your hopes on China mass producing freight shipping vehicles in order to bring down export costs for Canada. That is hilarious. And how will Canada then ship its vast quantities of oil to other buyers? You do realize Canada needs an underwater pipeline infrastructure for that it just does not have? Or do you suggest all the oil be loaded onto Chinese shipping containers? You crack me up. Lol.

And how will a massive fleet of Chinese freight vessels magically ramp up Canada's position in the rest of the world? Canada basically isn’t in the game when it comes to seeking new, expanded export markets in the Americas, Europe, Asia, or Africa. A massive fleet of Chinese vehicles won't change that. Why should China buy Canadian made products when it can buy German ones? You're dreaming.

Why China is Buying Canadian Products

1. Resource Complementarity

• Energy & Minerals: Canada exports large volumes of oil, gas, coal, and metal ores to China. In 2025, Canadian energy exports to China surged 77.8% year‑on‑year to C$9.5 billion, while mineral exports rose 42.5% to C$7.9 billion.

• Germany cannot supply these raw commodities at scale — it’s a net importer of energy and minerals.

2. Agricultural Products

• Canada is a major supplier of canola, wheat, and pulses. Even though Chinese tariffs reduced Canadian canola exports, Canada remains a reliable agricultural source.

• Germany’s agricultural exports are smaller and more focused on processed foods rather than bulk commodities.

3. Trade Diversification & Security

• China deliberately diversifies suppliers to avoid over‑dependence on Europe. Canada offers geographic and political balance compared to Germany, especially in sensitive sectors like food and energy security.

• Canada’s Pacific ports (Vancouver, Prince Rupert) provide direct shipping routes to China, reducing transport costs compared to Germany.

Courtesy of my mate AI.

7 minutes ago, MIke B Bad said:

Why China is Buying Canadian Products

1. Resource Complementarity

• Energy & Minerals: Canada exports large volumes of oil, gas, coal, and metal ores to China. In 2025, Canadian energy exports to China surged 77.8% year‑on‑year to C$9.5 billion, while mineral exports rose 42.5% to C$7.9 billion.

• Germany cannot supply these raw commodities at scale — it’s a net importer of energy and minerals.

2. Agricultural Products

• Canada is a major supplier of canola, wheat, and pulses. Even though Chinese tariffs reduced Canadian canola exports, Canada remains a reliable agricultural source.

• Germany’s agricultural exports are smaller and more focused on processed foods rather than bulk commodities.

3. Trade Diversification & Security

• China deliberately diversifies suppliers to avoid over‑dependence on Europe. Canada offers geographic and political balance compared to Germany, especially in sensitive sectors like food and energy security.

• Canada’s Pacific ports (Vancouver, Prince Rupert) provide direct shipping routes to China, reducing transport costs compared to Germany.

Courtesy of my mate AI.

Courtesy of my AI:

Oil is only 22 - 25% of Canadian exports.

And we've already established that Canada does not have the underwater pipeline infrastructure to ramp up its oil exports massively, which it would need to do as 91% (!!!!) of its oil exports currently go to the USA. Exports to China amount to only 3-4.5% of Canada's crude oil exports.

Consumer goods by contrast represent 12% of Canada's exports. It is here where Canada fails against competition from Japan, South Korea or Germany or UK or France.

19% of Canada's exports are derived from the car industry. Where again almost no international market would choose Canadian products over German, Japanese or even Korean or French or British options.

Industrial machinery is 7.5% of Canada's exports. Here again Canada competes with the likes of German, Japan, South Korea, UK and France globally. Very badly.

Agriculture is only 6 to 7% of Canada's exports. Guess who outcompetes Canada in agriculture? The US. Australia, Brazil, Russia, and the European Union.

In essence, Canada's exports are not just oil, energy and agriculture. Canada's exports are a mosaic of different sectors, and in almost all of them Canada's products rank very poorly in comparison with other nations' products.

Edited August 24Aug 24 by Cameroni

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

So you are pinning your hopes on China mass producing freight shipping vehicles in order to bring down export costs for Canada. That is hilarious. And how will Canada then ship its vast quantities of oil to other buyers? You do realize Canada needs an underwater pipeline infrastructure for that it just does not have? Or do you suggest all the oil be loaded onto Chinese shipping containers? You crack me up. Lol.

And how will a massive fleet of Chinese freight vessels magically ramp up Canada's position in the rest of the world? Canada basically isn’t in the game when it comes to seeking new, expanded export markets in the Americas, Europe, Asia, or Africa. A massive fleet of Chinese vehicles won't change that. Why should China buy Canadian made products when it can buy German ones? You're dreaming.

Unfortunately, I think the bigger picture may have been overlooked here. But oh well.

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Quite the opposite is happening and Canada is finding countries all over the world that are willing to buy their goods and services, thereby depriving America of a rich source, close by.

If only Don had an even basic understanding of globalization this would never have happened.

One of the more wildly wrong posts ever written. The irony of somebody unable to comprehend globalization accusing somebody that understands it perfectly of not even having a "basic understanding of globalization" is a real eyebrow raiser.

Trump knows full well the idea of free and fair trade without barriers or subsidies is all very well ON PAPER. But of course this was hijacked by the left who try to usher in socialism/communidm under the guise of globalization. Just look at the poor Europeans. They have no say in how their countries are run, and they are going to the dogs. Events such as Spain welcoming unemployable violent scum in and throwing passports at them would be as popular as injecting the Spaniards with syphillis, but they lost their voice. Thanks to globalization.

Trump knows more about globalization than you could ever dream of knowing, Mike. Dont care how many Jimmy Kimmel or Maddow shows you have watched, you clearly know zilch.