18 minutes ago, CharlesHolzhauer said:

Unfortunately, I think the bigger picture may have been overlooked here.

Yes. By you. You assume that a massive increase in Chinese freight vehicles will automatically translate into Canada increasing its export attractiveness. However, you forget that Canada competes with the US, China, Brazil, the EU, Japan, South Korea etc in all the categories in which it has some measure of exports.

Again, why would China, Nigeria or Brazil buy a Canadian machinery product, when they can buy a German or Japanese or French or South Korean one? Or indeed an American one?

In the Asian trading session, the Canadian dollar fell to 4-day lows of 1.3799 against the U.S. dollar, 115.11 against the yen and 1.6079 against the euro, from last week's closing quotes of 1.3767, 115.11 and 1.6117, respectively.

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2026-08/69385579-canadian-dollar-falls-amid-us-canada-trade-war-concerns-crude-oil-prices-slide-020.htm

I suppose on the upside we can all go long on the UCAD as the Canadian Dollar falls and make some money.

7 hours ago, impulse said:

We can use Venezuela's heavy crude.

That will be earliest in 10-15 years when the US can really make profit from Venezuelas heavy crude.

It will cost alot of money and won't be a quick fix. Approx. 185 billion Investments over the next 14 years(!) to return to the early 90's quotes of 3.5 million barrels oil per day.

It's the economy, stupid.

7 hours ago, impulse said:

But there's going to be some hard decades in the meantime.

Emmm, do you really believe that the political direction of the 47th will last for decades?

The repetition of the great depression will hit the US a tiny bit earlier. But obviously - that's what the orange man wants to have.

What the US really wanted:

One.

They demanded control over who Canada trades with. This came straight from Carney on Saturday: “The U.S. introduced at the last hour, in the last hour, efforts to restrict our ability to have other trade deals.” Not tariff levels. Not quotas. The United States demanded a say in Canada’s trade relationships with the rest of the planet. That is not a term you put to a trading partner. That is a term you put to a territory.

Two.

They came for the French language. This is the one that should make every Canadian’s blood run cold, and Carney laid it out in detail. The Americans had “issues” with Canada’s subsidies for French culture. With the prevalence of French-language media online. And, I’m not making this up, with the requirement that products sold in Canada carry bilingual labels. Carney’s words: “It was unacceptable right from the start, but the Americans kept trying and trying and we said no.” American negotiators sat across from Canadian officials and demanded we water down the legal protections for one of our two founding languages. In a trade deal. About tariffs.

Three.

They tried to rig the auto sector to strip our jobs. Carney said the US wanted to treat Canadian-made parts unfairly and to exempt some cars and pickup trucks from tariffs but not others, without explaining the logic. There was a logic. The logic was to pick which assembly lines live in Michigan and which ones die in Ontario, and to write it into a treaty.

Four.

They demanded we dismantle our own domestic policies, right down to the provincial level. Per the Globe’s sourcing: kill the retaliatory tariffs on American autos, rewrite how dairy licences are allocated under supply management to Washington’s interpretation, force provinces to end their bans on American booze, and scrap Buy Canadian procurement rules. The United States demanded that Canadian provinces change their liquor store policies. Doug Ford’s LCBO decisions were on a term sheet in Washington.

Five.

The resource grab was queued up for “phase two.” The Globe reported that US negotiators raised critical minerals, oil exports, the F-35 purchase, and Golden Dome missile defence in the talks, with the understanding that Canada’s flexibility on those files would shape the deal. Translation: sign away autos, dairy, culture and procurement now, and then we’ll discuss how much of your lithium, uranium and crude you get to keep.

Six.

The snapback. The remote-control tariff. Sign all of the above away permanently, and in exchange receive tariff relief that Trump can revoke any afternoon he wakes up feeling “aggrieved.”

1 hour ago, Schoggibueb said:

Emmm, do you really believe that the political direction of the 47th will last for decades?

The repetition of the great depression will hit the US a tiny bit earlier. But obviously - that's what the orange man wants to have.

Who is the orange man?

Gargamon, excellent piece. Please keep up your clear and fundamental analysis. Cheers.

Someone tell me how dumb you can be if you're attempting to kill your own market. This affects all US carmakers, who build their cars in the US, since the parts they use for their cars, sold in the US, cross the border multiple times.

Did Trump ever heard about the phrase, one should stop shooting when you have already a hole in your foot.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/trump-threatens-new-50-auto-tariffs-on-canada-as-analysts-guess-how-intense-the-standoff-will-be-163626124.html

Trump threatens new 50% auto tariffs on Canada as analysts guess how intense the standoff will be

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ford-stellantis-drop-4-trump-152513257.html

Ford and Stellantis Drop 4% as Trump Sets 50% Auto Tariffs on Canada, General Motors Slips

5 hours ago, Mr Awesome said:

Who is the orange man?

Sounds a bit racist? Bet he didnt call 44 "the black man".

Liberals😅

I expect that the US will return to make an agreement by September 8. The US economy cannot take the samage form a trade war with Canada and not see an impact on the GOP in the November mid terms.

The world is looking to knock Trump down a few pegs and to teach him some manners. I have a feeling that Canada is going to teach the schoolyard bully a lesson.

Ford doubles down on 'kiss my ass'

I'm not Canadian but if I were Id vote for this guy.

Sounds like he's got his head screwed on right not up the ass of a sleazy real estate failure from Queens Long Island. 😭

2 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Ford doubles down on 'kiss my ass'

I'm not Canadian but if I were Id vote for this guy.

Sounds like he's got his head screwed on right not up the ass of a sleazy real estate failure from Queens Long Island. 😭

Doug Ford is a shady sleeze bag. I voted againat him in our last election.

Restore the liberal party of Ontario!!

Edited August 24Aug 24 by blaze master

On 8/24/2026 at 12:36 AM, Cameroni said:

Let’s Admit It: Trump Is Winning the Trade War with Canada

Well it is about time he won something. I think that is his main aim. To at last try.

Doug Ford said it. Trunp is the kind of person who would steal your lunch money, the next day your hat and the next day your trainers.

Then there is the water which the US is running out of.

Then there is a Putin-like attempt to effect the Alberta referendum in a classic divide and conquer. But that might backfire.

Liquor seems to be a big one. Well if Americans are so concerned about liquor sales volume how come they don't simply buy more.

Then there is auto production and sales. I always wondered about US autos. If they are so good how come you can't buy them anywhere else.

Trump questioned why Japan doesn't buy more but he is such a genius that he doesn't realize the steering wheel is on the wrong side and Japanese road like Europe are quite small.

I found my hat.

1 hour ago, VocalNeal said:

Trunp is the kind of person who would steal your lunch money, the next day your hat and the next day your trainers.

Lunch money? Forget lunch money. Canada is sitting on 33 trillion USD of natural resources. 33 trillion! Think US national debt almost wiped off in one week!

And Canada is so vast, a huge chunk could be carved out and given to blacks as reparations for slavery in the south, as they have demanded so eloquently. This would end crime almost instantly in the rest of the US.

The remainder of Canada could be used to build incarceration camps in the Permafrost for social undesirables, mostly ANTIFA, communists and people with red hair and nose rings.

Invading and occupying Canada would solve almost all of the US' problems.

And Canadians could never defend their country. It would be over in less than a week.