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Thailand faces fiscal crisis within a decade warning

Featured Replies

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

They grow a lot of their own in rural areas.....

The greater Bangkok area has over 10 million people. Not much room to grow food in Bangkok. 😂

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  • I don't mean to deflect but aren't most 1st world countries also on the brink of similar disasters, often closer to it!

  • Old Thai saying. 'In the fields there is rice in the lakes there are fish' In other words Thais wont starve to death but plenty in those developed countries may well go hungry due to the lack of die

  • You forgot to mention the dilapidated US, which has an astronomical debt level of 125% of GDP.

4 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Never forget the Prayuth Decimation, and the extent to which it set the nation back. There's no question that Thailand is still recovering from a decade of army mismanagement and incompetence.

Now it's facing a new level of incompetence with Anutin and his hapless administration. They are focusing on all the wrong things and doing everything in their power to avoid the real problems Thailand is facing.

Sooner or later the youth are going to wrestle control of this nation and only then might it march forward in a progressive direction.

This nation has to figure out a way to get rid of the elites, the oligarchs, the dinosaurs, and some incredibly toxic and very powerful people that are doing absolutely nothing to benefit the nation on any level.

Just make sure no foreigners die here.

Clear debt move forward program makes the NPL figures look better but the debt is still there just not being shown, keep massaging the figures won't help

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20 hours ago, Sato said:

You forgot to mention the dilapidated US, which has an astronomical debt level of 125% of GDP.

It’s not dilapidated, yet. Some of it is, to be sure. It has always been that way for some. But the majority of the middle class is still intact, thanks to the recent history of low interest rates and the ability of the US government to live beyond its means by borrowing. The US Dollar will still buy housing, food, and energy. The basics are all available. And for anyone with a higher income, life can be good. In short, things aren’t all that bad, yet.

Some think the middle class is on its way to becoming peasants again, and maybe that’s true, but that time won’t come anytime soon for most. The US portrayed in the mainstream media is not entirely accurate.

54 minutes ago, FlorC said:

I love it ! But not enough.

More should do it.

Dump dollars , buy gold.

The more the US dollar gets dumped, the closer we are to World War 3.

41 minutes ago, L- Lifeline said:

All the more reason to encourage foreign investment - but the laws of ownership of land and businesses here do NOT encourage inward foreign investment IMHO

What sector do you think individuals / companies should be investing in here?

9 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Taxing some 300 baht a day workers is not going to fix this problem.

There's going to be a lot more sick buffalo in Thailand in the near future. 😂

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nationthailand

Thai household debt nears THB800,000, highest in 17 years

Average Thai household debt rose to THB794,945 in 2026, the highest in 17 years, as weak incomes and living costs continued to strain borrowers.

totally agree ! Only 20% of Thai's are registered for tax ( that means "assessable" for tax ) . I'm certain there's a massive avoidance of tax here by Thai's and about time the government got it's act together on this . Don't count on taxing only foreigners to bail you out ! Also !!! forget about signing up to OECD !!

On 9/20/2026 at 9:20 AM, jacko45k said:

I don't mean to deflect but aren't most 1st world countries also on the brink of similar disasters, often closer to it!

YEP ,Australia has just

run up over 1 trillion dollars thanks to the Government's reckles spendindg on dud climate change projects that are subsised and doomed to fail.

Predicting economic disaster for Thailand is a mugs' game. The Socratic position, knowing that you do not know, is modest but wiser.

Remember the "Tom Yam Kung financial crisis"? How many times over the past 40 years has the Thai economy, banking system, etc., defied gravity, shrugged the latest disaster off and emerged shaken but stronger. The very old timers will recall experts in the 70s predicting the kingdom sinking to 'African levels of poverty, corruption and politics'. On the contrary, Thailand spectacularly reduced its levels of poverty. The nation has its problems but few would doubt that it emerged from the 70s a better and stronger society.

By 1997, financial liberalization produced levels of debt and loan defaults that would have collapsed the banking systems of most countries (and did in Indonesia). The then government (forgot Finance minister's name?) performed a series or extraordinary fiscal shell and pea maneuvers, including classifying nearly all non performing loans into the never-never of "bad loans", negotiating very effectively with the IMF (compared to Indonesia, for example, who were eviscerated) and other measures described here https://www.bot.or.th/en/our-roles/special-measures/Tom-Yum-Kung-lesson.html

Many in the late 1990s, like the witches in Macbeth, were predicting doom for the kingdom and, although there was pain, dreadful exchange rates for locals and some businesses going under, it was not the Armageddon that the experts (foreign and Thai) had predicted.

I thought then that there had to be some significance in the fact that there was no decrease in the number of Benz's and BMWs on the roads, despite the levels of household debt and screaming headlines. Thailand again shook itself off and resumed its journey. This country has an inscrutable ability to survive and strengthen - which requires some humility to admire.

On 9/20/2026 at 3:13 AM, Georgealbert said:

reforms public spending, welfare and tax collection

Isn't that in line with the oligarch playbook?

Privatize government to rob the electorate and distribute to the oligarchs.

POTUS Trump regime case in point.

On 9/19/2026 at 7:51 PM, phil2407 said:

Has Greece paid anything back yet or just the usual middle finger

Was this an opportunity for you to push a political agenda? You could have simply asked the question online and found out that Greece has repaid some loans, and is ahead of its repayment schedule on others. Greece has put much of his financial house in order. It has work to do, but it has dome remarkably well.

  • IMF Loans: Fully repaid in 2022 (two years early).

  • First Bailout (Greek Loan Facility): Originally ~€53 billion from eurozone bilateral loans; Greece made an early repayment of €6.9 billion in June 2026. Greece intends to repay the balance ahead of the original deadlines.

  • ESM and EFSF Loans: The later rescue packages managed by the European Stability Mechanism stretch out for decades (with maturities extending past 2060), and these remain active and are being serviced on their long-term schedules.

Greece still has problems but;

  • The government runs steady budget surpluses.

  • The rate of Unemployment dropped to multi-year lows.

  • Greece's Investment grade status was restored by the rating agencies

On 9/19/2026 at 1:13 PM, Georgealbert said:

Mr Weerasak said the public sector should be reformed to reduce spending, including by reviewing agencies with overlapping duties. He cited Vietnam, which reduced civil servant numbers by 30-40% through public-sector reforms.

Ah, sweet music. If only Western governments had the guts to eviscerate the blob.

Some American states are going communist - presumably, they will be taking lessons from the Communist Party of Vietnam about how to finance deficits by simply telling the bureaucracy to eff off.

No guesses required as to who will be a part of the "broader tax base"!

17 hours ago, OneZero said:

There is no doubt it is part of the culture; not because one takes pride in corruption as such but because PATRONAGE is part of Thai culture; and patronage includes taught forced respect for all higher-ups, deserved & undeserved, in order to gain privilege and to continue the upward & downward flow of any ill-gotten gains.

Edit, repeat: Thailand could still be loosely described as a feudal Patronage society, masquerading as a Constitutional Monarchy.

At the risk of being accused of hijacking an Economic Problem subject toward an in-depth educational explanation of one of the Cultural aspect causes of the problem (Patronage /Corruption), following is an oped written by Voranai Vanijaka in 2012 that still has merit.

The Godfather Tradition Lives On    Voranai Vanijaka  17/06/12    People continue to be astounded by a series of polls in which most respondents say they don't mind government corruption as long as they also benefit. The latest poll this month had 63.4% of respondents expressing the view. The poll in January 2012 had 64.7%.  It was 64% in January 2011.  But in reality Thailand considers it only tradition. What we perceive as corruption today is but a tradition dating back to feudal times; tradition still practiced in the present, fusing it with modern electoral democracy, which sprang from feudal democracy.

Take an MP's relationship with his constituency. There is no corruption, no bribery, and no vote-buying; there's only gift-giving in a social relationship based on the patronage system.  When there's a funeral, your local MP is expected to be there with a fat envelope in his hand. Weddings, birthday parties _ more fat envelopes. Sure, friends and families also give envelopes, but the one from the MP is given because of the patronage network.

It is considered good form for those envelopes to be replaced by other gifts or favors, such as, "Yes, I called the school, they'll accept your son." The MP is also expected to throw parties and sponsor festivals, with food and drinks, lucky draws and prizes.  When you need to pay your child's tuition fees, when your bookie is a little too persistent, when the local police are a little too hungry or when a neighborhood quarrel threatens to get out of hand _ when these calamities and many more happen, what do you do? You go to your MP. Or your village head, or your district councilor. You go to your patron. Sometimes you go to the police, but it would be better for you if the police know you have a patron.

The patron then signs cheques, makes calls, bangs heads and gets in touch with connections on your behalf. If you want to start a business or do something that requires a bit of bureaucratic maneuvering, the MP is there to help you. Greasing his palm is only showing gratitude and good manners, as befits a polite society.  Otherwise, all your local politician or patron asks of you is your respect and loyalty. All he demands of you is your unwavering support at election time and your body in the streets whenever he needs you to protest about something _ with bandana around your head, a banner in your hand and spit coming from between your teeth. He's not just an elected MP. He's also a godfather, a local don, though probably lacking the cool demeanor of Marlon Brando.

It's the patronage network, a tradition of give and take, of favors and rewards. Hence, 63.4% of respondents don't mind corruption, as long as they too benefit. But really it's not corruption. It is merely the patron taking care of his community and retainers, and they do for him in return. One happy family. Capisce?

Democracy is about ideals and laws, so vague and so distant and far too complex. The feudal patronage system is about relationships, person to person, the family; the simple things in life. It is who you know, not what you know. It's about connections, the true age of connectivity, where we don't even need Wi-Fi.

Here, the people do not rely on a set of rules or a body of laws, they rely on the power wielder, the patron. The power is arbitrary; hence bargaining and negotiation, plus a nice gift, is the norm.  When you are stopped on the street by the police, you drop a name or hand over a name card. You appeal to a social relationship. Failing that, there's the 100 baht bill. It's not bribery, but gift-giving.  You appeal to the name or rank of your father or of a powerful friend. It works so well that sometimes you can just make up a name and the police will back off. Go ahead, try it. The patronage relationship is ingrained and conforming; feudal patrons in democratic Thailand are as abundant as the rice in the fields and the fish in the sea. It's not corruption. It's about respect.

When you deal with government agencies, the first question you ask is not "what are the procedures", but "who do I know who can pull strings and make this happen". It's not corruption. It's about relationships.  School tea money is not bribery; it's establishing relationships between the school administrators and teachers on the one hand, and the parents and children on the other. Names and faces are recognized; the tea money is the social bond. The child who deserves a seat in the school belongs to the parents who're willing to be a part of the school's patronage network.  The much talked about 30% under-the-table bribe for private companies seeking government deals is, again, not corruption. It's about relationships, respect and mutual benefits.

If laws are changed to benefit or government concessions go to family, cronies, friends or chauffeurs, it is not corruption. It's taking care of your family, your patronage network. It's a matter of duty and honor.  Take a village under the patronage of the village head; a district under the district councilor. Take it to the town, provincial and regional level. Take it to the national level and we have Thailand mapped by networks of feudal patronage systems owing allegiances to patrons such as Newin Chidchob, Banharn Silpa-archa, Suthep Thaugsuban, Suwat Liptapanlop, Sanoh Thienthong and others.  How do people like Chalerm Yubamrung and Karun Hosakul keep getting elected time and again? It's because, whatever else they may be, to the people of their communities they are good patrons. 

When a nation lives and breathes through these feudalistic patronage networks, there is no corruption; there is only tradition _ it's the way things have been done for centuries, though tweaked a bit under electoral democracy.  Constitutionally, legally and theoretically we are in a democracy. But the constitution, the legal and theoretical frameworks have little to do with day-to-day realities dictated by feudal governance. Words on paper do not dictate what we do. The belief system ingrained in our psyches does.

In practical terms, you can't get things done without joining and playing in the system. It's a matter of not just prosperity, but survival.  It is therefore only a half truth that 63.4% of respondents do not mind corruption, as long they also benefit. The whole truth is that there would be no government corruption if the people didn't play their part.  But the dilemma is that if you don't play in the system, you are likely to get left out, and then who will take care of you and yours? Therefore this tradition is self-perpetuating. And while there are those who profit greatly, such feudal governance can only result in the masses kept kowtowed on the floor and the nation mediocre. Because relationships, seniorities and divisions take precedent over abilities and merit.

At times, democracy plays into the hands of feudalism. Populist policies are wonderful tools to maintain and expand the patronage network. As well, advancement as a nation is stalled, because loyalties are to individual patrons, outweighing the sense of citizenship and nationhood. In feudal times, the bureaucrats did not receive salaries. In modern times they do. In theory that should break the tradition, but in reality ... yeah right.  How to break the cycle? Again, we can talk about education reform until Euro 2012 magically appears on my black screen, but who has the patience?  We all want to see actual changes before we descend to Valhalla to drink, feast, fight and fornicate for the rest of eternity.  Revolutionary changes come on the back of visionary leaders. The leader leads, whether in feudal or modern times.

Edited by OneZero

22 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Really?

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1905195/jobless-queue-for-food-in-bangkok

"Long lines of unemployed relying on free food across Bangkok, scrambles for cash handouts and fishing in fetid canals -- Thais are getting increasingly desperate as the pandemic destroys the economy and the government struggles to respond."

It appears there's not many rice fields and lakes in Bangkok. 😂 😂

That was more or less my thinking. If the price of rice on the World market is high then the rice isn't going to destitute city dwellers.

8 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

The more the US dollar gets dumped, the closer we are to World War 3.

We are already in WW 3.

Basically, Thailand will have to join the real world instead of living in its nationalistic fantasy land... those days are long gone.

12 hours ago, 1happykamper said:

obviously! Thai are living a dream now with easy money from the banks ...land, construction, new cars and the latest iPhone...all while earning 20 to 40k a month 😂 😂.

Of course it will collapse.

I've gotten two ? ....you guys can't read English? It add two plus two?

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