I've Got To Get Out Of The Us Dollar - What 2 Do?

[h5n1]

Well, with the fed rate cut yesterday the writing is on the wall. I have procrastinated becasue interest rates WERE headed up (as they SHOULD have) and... I am American therefore, when I am home use USD.

I looked at RBS offshore, had good rates on Sterling but I also saw annual account fees and 2.75% on debit card withdrawl and about us30 on wire transfs.

Some time ago someone was talking about a dollar bear fund that was basically a basket of Euro currencies - OXC? OCX ... I can't find the symbol-name.

What about silver? I think gold is way overbought and has potental to plummet.

Not at all big on equities, esp US market.

Worried Japan has exposure to the US credit scandals. Also thinking Japan never lets its currency get too strong as it will kill exports.

Anyway - Please skip the analysis as this thread will get really long but if anyone can lay out some options.

I would be OK with timed deposit but I'd need to send money to my US bank annually.

I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

[backflip]

You've spoken with a US-based broker, haven't you?

[Jingthing]

Kind of late to get out the dollar, don't you think?

[jumnien]

I'd bet the dollar will be strengthening more than weakening if past performance is any clue.

[LindsayBKK]

Australian Rates

Australian rates are doing nicely thankyou, more than 6.5% for me. (no tax / fee's)

My bank

Edited September 19, 2007 by LindsayBKK

[bowthai]

where have you been the last several years?the writing was on the wall a while back just based on fundamentals and i spent the last few years getting out of dollars and us assets.sold all my us real estate,moved my cash into everbank's foreign currency accounts and cd's,bought up gold bullion coins and silver perth mnt certificates,and now have more invested in the hong kong stock market and hong kong dollars than us stocks and dollars through etrade.

these and other financial moves have more made me a tidy profit besides insulating me from the usd's decline and eventual us economic shock coming.

Edited September 19, 2007 by bowthai

[PCA]

Well, with the fed rate cut yesterday the writing is on the wall. I have procrastinated becasue interest rates WERE headed up (as they SHOULD have) and... I am American therefore, when I am home use USD.

I looked at RBS offshore, had good rates on Sterling but I also saw annual account fees and 2.75% on debit card withdrawl and about us30 on wire transfs.

Some time ago someone was talking about a dollar bear fund that was basically a basket of Euro currencies - OXC? OCX ... I can't find the symbol-name.

What about silver? I think gold is way overbought and has potental to plummet.

Not at all big on equities, esp US market.

Worried Japan has exposure to the US credit scandals. Also thinking Japan never lets its currency get too strong as it will kill exports.

Anyway - Please skip the analysis as this thread will get really long but if anyone can lay out some options.

I would be OK with timed deposit but I'd need to send money to my US bank annually.

I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

You have a really hard decision to make now. Usually as a chartist I would not like to be in the US$ now too but just to see it a bit from the fundamental side there are so many bad facts already priced into the dollar right now with the rate cut being the latest. For a trader its good to be short though. The guys at fidelity should be able to provide you with a currency hedge while staying in the $. There is definitely a turnaround coming up just who knows when but it will be fast and fulminant catching the majority of people on the wrong leg like it always is with currencies. This whole interest rate comedy is not only a FED problem but all over the worlds central banks. No way let yourself fooling into Gold or silver, though silver has at least some industrial value its still unpredictable and not a place to park money. If at Fidelity they cannot suggest how to at least keep your value plus inflation covered then change the bank immediately. And dont forget Americans are tricky and inventive, they will create new fundamental reasons to get their currency up on strong legs again. If that happens and it will you will have a reason to bite your ass twice, first for getting out of the dollar and second being long in a falling gold price. Hedge properly consulted by experts and sit this out.

[lannarebirth]

http://www.profunds.com/ProFundsProfiles/F...llar/Profile.fs

[Manchester]

where have you been the last several years?the writing was on the wall a while back just based on fundamentals and i spent the last few years getting out of dollars and us assets.sold all my us real estate,moved my cash into everbank's foreign currency accounts and cd's,bought up gold bullion coins and silver perth mnt certificates,and now have more invested in the hong kong stock market and hong kong dollars than us stocks and dollars through etrade.

these and other financial moves have more made me a tidy profit besides insulating me from the usd's decline and eventual us economic shock coming.

The OP is asking for advice.................not some short story on " Ooooooooooo look at me.....i am sooooooooooooo good. "

[Edonista]

Well, with the fed rate cut yesterday the writing is on the wall. I have procrastinated becasue interest rates WERE headed up (as they SHOULD have) and... I am American therefore, when I am home use USD.

I looked at RBS offshore, had good rates on Sterling but I also saw annual account fees and 2.75% on debit card withdrawl and about us30 on wire transfs.

Some time ago someone was talking about a dollar bear fund that was basically a basket of Euro currencies - OXC? OCX ... I can't find the symbol-name.

What about silver? I think gold is way overbought and has potental to plummet.

Not at all big on equities, esp US market.

Worried Japan has exposure to the US credit scandals. Also thinking Japan never lets its currency get too strong as it will kill exports.

Anyway - Please skip the analysis as this thread will get really long but if anyone can lay out some options.

I would be OK with timed deposit but I'd need to send money to my US bank annually.

I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

Ask your bank if they can offer you foreign currencies accounts/ time deposits.

Anyway the $ lost almost 50% of its value against euro since 2000 , and that without any remarkabke inflation differential between USA and EU. Perhaps it's the right time for buying $ instead of selling.

Regarding gold, silver, etc. I would keep myself away from metals. They are just sterile commodities , they pay no dividend or coupon, and there is no law ensuring their price will go up.

[BangkokGuru]

What about investment in gold.

And don't forget about diversification.

[Carmine6]

Well, with the fed rate cut yesterday the writing is on the wall. I have procrastinated becasue interest rates WERE headed up (as they SHOULD have) and... I am American therefore, when I am home use USD.

I looked at RBS offshore, had good rates on Sterling but I also saw annual account fees and 2.75% on debit card withdrawl and about us30 on wire transfs.

Some time ago someone was talking about a dollar bear fund that was basically a basket of Euro currencies - OXC? OCX ... I can't find the symbol-name.

What about silver? I think gold is way overbought and has potental to plummet.

Not at all big on equities, esp US market.

Worried Japan has exposure to the US credit scandals. Also thinking Japan never lets its currency get too strong as it will kill exports.

Anyway - Please skip the analysis as this thread will get really long but if anyone can lay out some options.

I would be OK with timed deposit but I'd need to send money to my US bank annually.

I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

You need to send money to the US annually? If you have dollar deonominated expenses, it makes sense to keep that money at 5% in the US if you want to be very conservative. Otherwise you might catch a bad exchange rate right when you need to move it. 5% is too slim a return to also worry about currency exchange. Money that you're using in other countries you can afford to put in a conservative investment someplace else because you'll be hedged against that currency strengthening.

If you're trying to beat a 5% return by playing a currency change it really is not a very conservative way to do it. You're actually taking a lot of risk. Nothing wrong with that, but just be aware that it isn't actually conservative.

Fidelity does have some good funds. I bought the Fidelity Southeast Asian fund (FSEAX) as a hedge against the baht and other Asian currencies strengthening. It ended up doubling in just the last 2 years and quadrupled in the last 5. I'd been hoping for just 20% or so just so vacations didn't get too expensive. If you look at the energy funds, technology funds, international funds, they're all way up for the year. Almost anything other than real estate and financials is up from last year. Going back 5 years it's hard to find a fund of theirs that didn't do well except for the conservative bond funds.

If you're thinking gold and are worried that it's topping, gold mining companies might be a way to go. They don't need gold to be at it's all time high to make a lot of money, they just need gold to stay high over a long period of time. For example, if their mining cost is $300/ounce, it doens't matter if gold is $650 or $750, they still can make a lot of money. It just has to stay high for a long time.

[britmaveric]

Stick with the $, you'll be feeling a lot worse when it strengthens.

[Firefan]

Britmav; our resident USD bull! One day you WILL be right....maybe...

Couple of USD funds for diversification:

PFUIX (Pimco foreign developed bonds - unhedged)

PLIMX (developing markets - unhedged)

Or just buying foreign stock funds/ETFs such as VEA, VEU, VPL, VWO, VGK Etc. While they are listed in USD they are unhedged and therefore gain if the underlying currencies gain. Idisclaimer: and LOSE if underlying currencies drop )

Throw in some metals/mining stocks fund such as VGPMX, BGEIX, GDX or similar for further diversification "currency-wise".

All above tickers are US listed, but the ETFs can often be bought against any bank with access to the US markets.

CHeers!

Edited September 19, 2007 by Firefan

[cobra]

...I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

That's about as good as your going to do right now, money market funds, OLS's, Merrill, HSBC, etc, all are giving you ~5% which is keeping you inflation-proofed as well as keeping you liquid,

[Naam]

...I am currently banking with Fidelity which does not have such great funds. It is cheap to hold my money and is giving me 5.1%.

I need something very conservative. Hedge against the dollar and inflation while still hopefully picking up 5%.

That's about as good as your going to do right now, money market funds, OLS's, Merrill, HSBC, etc, all are giving you ~5% which is keeping you inflation-proofed as well as keeping you liquid,

a 5% yield on cash USD will be soon a thing of the past. interbank bid rates have dropped drastically.

[h5n1]

Thanks for much good advice here. The reason I've hung on is a number of factors I won't dwell on. Many here think doing what I have been is not such a bad thing. 5%+ is not bad for no risk other than being in dollars. I do see the USD gaining strength in the near term - which is when I'd like to sell it. I was'nt looking to dabble into forex market per-se for gain, just a hedge. Yes, I need to have cash for states once a year and I may very well need to go back as my parents age - which is really what had kept me from cashing out years ago.

I looked into Evergreen some time ago and thought the fees were a rip. Gold, if you catch it on the way up great - but I was a kid in the 70s and remember that bubble well. I think mining stocks as the entire market is oversold and I've been waiting a 20% correction for years. I thought about gold on 03, I am a really prudent investor - I don't have anything to lose. I follow economics as an interest, I'm no daytrader - I think equities are a scam. I will be the last to get the news and by then, I will have lost big.

Interest rates may very well drop but its such a mafia - here we have a liquidity crisis. they need my money so they drop fed rates and I am screwed again. The corporate agenda gets my money below value again and thats why I want out of the usd.

Thank you all.

Edited September 20, 2007 by h5n1

[FarangNoi21]

no reason to get out of the dollar now. you might as well wait it out.

[Taggart]

Warren Buffett has a few words about the U.S. dollar in this CNBC interview on Sept. 18/07.

"I Don't Care" If the Fed Cuts Rates

BQ: Let me push you one more time. You talk about you woundn't necessarily invest in stocks based on what the Fed does today, but what about the dollar? You've had bets against the dollar?

WB: Well, again, that would not be affected by what the Fed does today. That's affected by more fundamental problems in terms of the huge trade imbalance. Just a week or two ago, Bernanke said that the present current account deficit is unsustainable. And Greenspan said that 3 or 4 years ago. But the truth is, it goes on. So that's what counts in terms of the value of the dollar over time. Again, it will not depend on what the Fed does at this meeting or the next meeting or the meeting after that.

[siamamerican]

The dollar had an incredible run between 1995-2202. It has now declined for 5 years and, if history repeats itself, will again gain in value in the next few years.

Unless you know something I don't, keep your dollars and hope things improve in the next few years. For those that anticipated the decline a few years ago, congrats.

I'm an American that has benefited from the decline of the dollar, but currently see little reason to get out of the dollar. You have missed the boat in my feeble opinion.

[h5n1]

I really have no choice at this juncture but I think long term - I have no faith in the US ability to manage its finances. People wonder how/why Persia, Greece, Rome, Egypt, Indian, Khmer empires fell ... its not difficult to surmise.

Yes, missed teh boat. Forex trading may have become cheaper but I never dabbled directly in it as it had in the past been so pricey to trade.

Thanks for the follow up (and hope?).

I'm dubious

[Irene]

I really have no choice at this juncture but I think long term - I have no faith in the US ability to manage its finances. People wonder how/why Persia, Greece, Rome, Egypt, Indian, Khmer empires fell ... its not difficult to surmise.

Yes, missed teh boat. Forex trading may have become cheaper but I never dabbled directly in it as it had in the past been so pricey to trade.

Thanks for the follow up (and hope?).

I'm dubious

I agree that for a long while dollar has to weaken while other currencies including baht will be stronger. It is inevitable because of the imbalance of trade with China and Asia, the latest financial crunch and downward trend of home sales, and likelihood of the savings of China and others will slowly divert their funds to others. These are not indications of the coming fall of the US just like the fall of Roman Empire. The current inequilibriums do not mean the US economy is going into bankruptcy but more as a result of the unusual flow of international trade when China woke up from communism to liking of free trade . TheUS just simply have to adjust to this new world. Fundamentally, US is still strong in productivity and potential to withstand outside pressure with advanced technology. The world simply cannot do without them and has to readjust to ensure the continued existence of US in the world economy.

[LindsayBKK]

I'd bet the dollar will be strengthening more than weakening if past performance is any clue.

Yes keep thinking positive thats the spirit. Meanwhile in the real world ..... Recesion is well-nigh

USD 1

EUR 1.4229

GBP 2.04359

CAD 1.00715

AUD 0.893096

Edited October 2, 2007 by LindsayBKK