'to Return To A Democratic Thailand '

[Prakanong]

Actually Thailand is better off now than it was a year ago. Economy didn't do very well, but that's about it on the minus side.

We don't have ridiculous bomb plots, public beatings, inane propaganda (very little comparing to Thaksin's "hub a day" days), and the government had reversed a couple of bills because of the public or parlamentary disapproval - something that never happened under "democratic" Thaksin.

Thaksin wasn't DEMOCRATICALLY elected. No matter how many times you repeat it, he wasn't.

People didn't have a choice of ministers under "democratic" Thaksin either, he called all the shots himself, without any sense of accountability. Nor to the public, nor to the country.

Do you understand what democracy is and how ministers are appointed in a democracy like the UK (Thailand) ie in Cabinent government?

The British education system is failing us!!!!!

Go on tell us where you studied politics in the UK - the Daily Mail?

[Old Man River]

Here it is a year later and it is still difficult for me to believe that educated farangs cheered a coup that deposed a democratically elected leader and threw the constitution in the trash. You only have to ask your self one question. Is Thailand better off today than it was a year ago? The military government has spent the entire year trying to justify their coup and doing NOTHING constructive for the country. You DON'T scrap a constitution, you make amendments to it. In this case it HAD to be scrapped otherwise the coup leaders would have gone to jail. Some of the Johnny come lately farangs have no idea what politics here in Thailand was like before Thaksin. As has been said before, Democracy is a terrible form of government but it is certainly better than any other form that has been tested.

If bars are made 24 hours a day, they will be shouting "Long live the Junta!".

I've gotta agree with you on this one. The only reason the anti-Thaksin brigade go any momentum amongst farang is that Purachai stopped the ping-pong ball shows and closed Nana early.

Utterly amazing. You would be surprised how many foreigners who are long time residents in Thailand couldn't care less about the closing time in places like Nana, Cowboy and Patpong. Don't stereotype every foreigner in Thailand as being just like you.

[sriracha john]

It's his standard fare... regardless of the nickname this month.

[Plus]

Do you understand what democracy is and how ministers are appointed in a democracy like the UK (Thailand) ie in Cabinent government?

That was in reply to someone who said people didn't choose the ministers under the junta. They never had.

You can't compare British parlament with Thai. Blair was on TV every other week answering questions on the floor, from anyone who cared to challenge him, Thaksin never even showed up.

[Prakanong]

Here it is a year later and it is still difficult for me to believe that educated farangs cheered a coup that deposed a democratically elected leader and threw the constitution in the trash. You only have to ask your self one question. Is Thailand better off today than it was a year ago? The military government has spent the entire year trying to justify their coup and doing NOTHING constructive for the country. You DON'T scrap a constitution, you make amendments to it. In this case it HAD to be scrapped otherwise the coup leaders would have gone to jail. Some of the Johnny come lately farangs have no idea what politics here in Thailand was like before Thaksin. As has been said before, Democracy is a terrible form of government but it is certainly better than any other form that has been tested.

If bars are made 24 hours a day, they will be shouting "Long live the Junta!".

I've gotta agree with you on this one. The only reason the anti-Thaksin brigade go any momentum amongst farang is that Purachai stopped the ping-pong ball shows and closed Nana early.

Utterly amazing. You would be surprised how many foreigners who are long time residents in Thailand couldn't care less about the closing time in places like Nana, Cowboy and Patpong. Don't stereotype every foreigner in Thailand as being just like you.

I tend to agree with you there - the screeches I heard from most were from either visitors or people who had an interest in the area's ie as nightlife web board owners or commentators or bar owners.

Anyone who knew anything knew the early closing hours did not mater a jot - it did push prostitution onto the street though which was probably an unintended consequence

[Scott]

I have had the privlege and good fortune to teach two groups of students for the past 3 years that work in an industrial area. Most were bright up-country students who received scholarships to study in a profession. A few are local BKK residents from moderately middle-income families. A very good cross section of Thailand from growing up very poor to moderately wealthy. From Isaan natives to ethnic Chinese. From every region, including three from the deep south. All speak good English, are articulate and have reasonably outspoken.

A long time ago we had discussions about politics. As their teacher, I said that they were welcom to express their opinions, but that others were NOT welcome to criticise them. As a result, we started a long-term dialogue that included politics. A large number were fans of Thaksin said under him, their children could go to school, they could go to the doctor, the road to their village that hadn't even existed before, was not paved. (They were, of course not referring to their children, but to the area in general). Those that were against him saw him as being autocratic, arrogant etc--interestingly, much of their comments were based more on personality than on performance.

At the time of the coup, some were happy (even a few supporters express relief that the 'tension' in Thailand would ease). They asked me about it and I said I didn't think that the military was a good option that such "short-cuts' to democracy don't work.

Now, a year later we all agree. No one is happy with the coup. They say the country has gone no where, nothing is better etc.

We're all having dinner tonight so after a few beers, I'll ask them for further opinions.

In democracies one doesn't have to look far to see some bad people. The current US president is a prime example as was Nixon (but he got ousted--but not by the military). There are examples in other countries as well. Democracy, like all gov'ts makes mistakes, it's part of growing and changing.

[LinkPopularity]

hey, I've hated Thaksin equally throughout his entire political career, including his first forays into Phalang Darma back in 1997.

this is to me the core of the problem; you take it personally

if I would make a list of Mr X and Mr Y with all their achievements in the interest of the country and all their misdoings, you would vote for ... Thaksin !

the current leaders are 10 times more corrupt then Thaksin, while they're not doing anything for the country's interest !

yes, Thaksin was corrupt, but he also took,for the first time since Rama V, the necessary decisions to develop this country !

your friends are causing the main problem of this country : the wood cutting !

and the military gave themselves 70 billion raise, like that isn't anything else then the worst corruption scam this country has ever seen !

[Plus]

"Giles Ungpakorn puts it better than I could when he states, "If you believe in “elite theory”, you will see all developments in Thai history and politics as being determined by great leaders and great minds..."

He would say that, wouldn't he? Being a marxist...

His Marxist leanings aside, he's bang on with his opinion and reasoning about the coup.

He's also Head of Political Science at Chulalongkorn. Surprised that didn't warrant a mention.

I think you are factually wrong. He's just an assossiate professor. When his book was banned from university bookstore, no one protested, no one cares what he has to say.

And he doesn't have Marxist leanings - he is a bona fide, self-declared marxist.

How can you seriously consider that as an alternative to "elite theory"?

Marxism an alternative? I didn't. Please don't attempt a feeble strawman to try to change my position to advocating Marxism!

You picked up Giles banner yourself. I assumed you agree with his alternative position, too.

[meemiathai]

I do not know politics.

But would like to ask how people can think one can survive in thai politics without being corrupted. How could corruptedness be used as an excuse to say anyone is not good for a country like thailand? One needs to maintain one's power to stay where one is and to achieve that one just has to be in a way corruptive. It is no easy thing to run a country like thailand especially if one wants to bring the gaps between the poor and the rich closer. I think one would not have been oust if he had been corrupted enough. I would say even in first world countries there is need for some corruptedness for politicians to climb up the ladder.

In the Government Department I am working here in HK, every bloody person who gets promoted are corrupted! The higher they go the more corrupted they are! You want to stay clean, you want to be fair, you are fxxked! And it is HK we are talking about. Where supposingly one of the less corrupted places on earth.

[mogoso]

I was the first leader in the near 100-year history of Thailand to be not just democratically elected, but democratically re-elected. Under my administration,

It's a shame that he never took history lessons either, i would hardly call 68 years a 'near 100-year history'.

Well it's 68% thats close enough for gov't work

[samran]

hey, I've hated Thaksin equally throughout his entire political career, including his first forays into Phalang Darma back in 1997.

this is to me the core of the problem; you take it personally

if I would make a list of Mr X and Mr Y with all their achievements in the interest of the country and all their misdoings, you would vote for ... Thaksin !

the current leaders are 10 times more corrupt then Thaksin, while they're not doing anything for the country's interest !

yes, Thaksin was corrupt, but he also took,for the first time since Rama V, the necessary decisions to develop this country !

your friends are causing the main problem of this country : the wood cutting !

and the military gave themselves 70 billion raise, like that isn't anything else then the worst corruption scam this country has ever seen !

while I have never hid my distaste for the bloke, I'm not naieve to think that corruption doesn't happen here. I'm no fan of the alternative, as I've stated, many, many, many times. In fact, it can be quite rampant. But centralising it to a small elite, like himself and a few others, I reckon would have tipped Thailand down the path of the Philippines rather than Singapore.

As I said, I'm a pragmatist. I'd much rather have disparate groups of people with less market power getting their nose in the trough sometimes, rather than one bloke getting his nose in the trough all the time through the accumulation of every concession in the country and major shareholdings in every major enterprise. As a nation, you set yourself up as a customer of the omnipresent Shincorp - Telecoms , property, transport, airlines, the monopolist who gets the cream, and no one else does...no room for small enterprises, no room for innovation.

Call it competition, but a loose thread of ologarchs who have substantially less market power is better for Thailand than what we had before with Dear Leader. There isn't one person who has total sway over everthing. The 70's and 80's showed that even with old style cronyism, it was very possible for a middle class to develop. Uneven yes, but it did provide access to opportunity that simply didn't happen say in the Phillippines where all the spoils and riches of the boom from that era went straight into the pockets of the ruling elite.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for free and fair markets, democracy, empowerment of the poor. I agree with universal health care, and thought that the 30-baht scheme was great. I liked the fact that under the Thaksin we got a subsidised loan scheme for university students, which would have given access to all students to a higher education, regarless of their wealth. But to get this from a guy who at the same time was buying up hospitals (so that the governent money would go to him), while giving us access to low cost airlines owned by him, was all a bit much I'm afraid.

[ColPyat]

Actually Thailand is better off now than it was a year ago. Economy didn't do very well, but that's about it on the minus side.

That is actually rather funny.

Scores of factories are laying off workers in the ten thousands in all industrial zones from Navanakhorn to Samut Prakan, and it is kept out of the media thanks to the friendly neighborhood soldiers who are still sitting in the TV stations and censor the news.

Prices of basic necessities are rising constantly.

Drugs are making a huge come back.

Crime is getting worse.

The war in the South is worse than ever - no end in sight.

The divisions between the different sectors of the population are bigger than even a year ago.

But yes, our Generals say that the country is better off - Gen. Sonthi said in an TITV interview today that Thailand has no problems anymore - so yes, it must be better off.

I don't know if a shall laugh or cry when faced with such naivety.

Oh come off it!

For every factory closed theres a different factory opening in another sector, its called competition.

Read my posts - i said that factories are laying off workers in the ten thousands. They mostly are not yet closing. That is expected to happen after new year.

The war in the south is worse? thats a load of crap - I remember not so long ago people being herded into the back of lorries and dying of suffocation.

That is not "a load of crap" - i have been down there many times.

Here is a link on what is going on today:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/20...542899950_x.htm

I see no additional crime, or drugs problems, or 'divisions', Maybe you just live in a neighbourhood thats on its way down?

Not just my neighborhood, all neighborhoods i am familiar with. And i have many friends all over town. Most of my Thai friends report the same.

Price of what basic necessities?, just a minute ago you guys were moaning about rice subsidies, because rice was so cheap - make your minds up.

I believe that you don't really understand what subsidies are, and what they are for.

I don't know if you go shopping in the markets for your food, or just eat in restaurants. Food and other basic necessities are getting very expensive now.

All that this basically boils down to is bitter expats, annoyed because the baht has gotten stronger, their visa is harder to get and their favourite beer has gone from 6% to 5%.

Sorry, i am on a very stable workpermit with one year visa, and that since many years, i drink alcohol maybe once in two or three weeks (at most). Actually - those sort of expats are generally very happy with the coup - bars are again open as long as the owners can afford to pay the local police stations, and all sort of underground businesses flourish again.

[Plus]

Inflation is stable, prices are not going up up and away. Factory closings are economy related, I said from the start it didn't perform as expected. There are reasons for it.

In the South the government managed to avoid Krue Sue/Tak Bai/Nangyonlimo massacres and standoffs.

The divisions have not gone away, but at least there are no massive demonstrations of power and mostly people just want to move ahead rather than fight their opponents to death. On anti-Thaksin side, at least.

Corruption in the government is like a crime in the society. You don't want it but it will always be there. You don't legalise crime just becuase there will always be criminals out there, like Thaksin's supporters want to legalise corruption.

>>>

"I will step down if people don't give me a mandate to run the country" - wasn't it from the same speach where Thaksin pledged to rule for twenty years? Where he said "Ok, after twelve years I'll let Democrats a shot at the government".

[ColPyat]

Inflation is stable, prices are not going up up and away. Factory closings are economy related, I said from the start it didn't perform as expected. There are reasons for it.

In the South the government managed to avoid Krue Sue/Tak Bai/Nangyonlimo massacres and standoffs.

The divisions have not gone away, but at least there are no massive demonstrations of power and mostly people just want to move ahead rather than fight their opponents to death. On anti-Thaksin side, at least.

Corruption in the government is like a crime in the society. You don't want it but it will always be there. You don't legalise crime just becuase there will always be criminals out there, like Thaksin's supporters want to legalise corruption.

>>>

"I will step down if people don't give me a mandate to run the country" - wasn't it from the same speach where Thaksin pledged to rule for twenty years? Where he said "Ok, after twelve years I'll let Democrats a shot at the government".

You forget to mention that for example the Krue Sue massacre was ordered by Panlop Pinmanee (outspoken Thaksin opponent, now special PR advisor to the ISOC, accused of masterminding the failed bomb attack against Thaksin, and leader of a death squad in the '70s) against the direct orders of the TRT government.

Also the guilty of Tak Bai have still not been brought to court under this government.

And yes, the tiny little problem of economy going bad is not affecting people. Mass lay-offs do not mean that Thailand is in a bad state.

Yes, the are reasons for the economy going bad, some are rooted in the unusually weak US dollar affecting the export economy, and others are with the more than strange economical policies and decisions of this present government.

[Plus]

The army isn't going to prosecute people it relies on for its own survival. In order for the coup to be successful it needed as many officers on board as possible.

Prosecution of Krue Sue and Tak Bai will be possible only under civilian government. I expect Democrats to start doing something about it next year.

Factory closings are solely due to dollar appreciation. I can't think of a single government mistake that had negative effect on export business. FBA, capital controls, or drug licensing have very little effect on export performance.

Consumer and business confidence are at the lowest, but it's moslty due to political situation. People are uncertain about the future and don't spend and don't invest. And political uncertainty rises from fear of pro-Thaksin groups making a big come back. There's also "let's hold on until after the elections" attitude that doesn't help growth but doesn't hurt by itself either.

[thedude]

while I have never hid my distaste for the bloke, I'm not naieve to think that corruption doesn't happen here. I'm no fan of the alternative, as I've stated, many, many, many times. In fact, it can be quite rampant. But centralising it to a small elite, like himself and a few others, I reckon would have tipped Thailand down the path of the Philippines rather than Singapore.

As I said, I'm a pragmatist. I'd much rather have disparate groups of people with less market power getting their nose in the trough sometimes, rather than one bloke getting his nose in the trough all the time through the accumulation of every concession in the country and major shareholdings in every major enterprise. As a nation, you set yourself up as a customer of the omnipresent Shincorp - Telecoms , property, transport, airlines, the monopolist who gets the cream, and no one else does...no room for small enterprises, no room for innovation.

Call it competition, but a loose thread of ologarchs who have substantially less market power is better for Thailand than what we had before with Dear Leader. There isn't one person who has total sway over everthing. The 70's and 80's showed that even with old style cronyism, it was very possible for a middle class to develop. Uneven yes, but it did provide access to opportunity that simply didn't happen say in the Phillippines where all the spoils and riches of the boom from that era went straight into the pockets of the ruling elite.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for free and fair markets, democracy, empowerment of the poor. I agree with universal health care, and thought that the 30-baht scheme was great. I liked the fact that under the Thaksin we got a subsidised loan scheme for university students, which would have given access to all students to a higher education, regarless of their wealth. But to get this from a guy who at the same time was buying up hospitals (so that the governent money would go to him), while giving us access to low cost airlines owned by him, was all a bit much I'm afraid.

samran, it seems like you have no idea where the REAL economic power in this country is held, has been held even during thaksin, and continues to be held now that he is gone. i'm surprised you have been living here supposedly for so many years and are completely under a haze of ignorance.

despite his best efforts, the companies held under shin were valued at some 73 billion baht at the time of the sale, and these include the telco, satellite business, and budget airline. thats barely US$ 2 billion in a stock market with a total capitalization of over 120 billion and in a country that posts almost 200 billion in annual GNP. he was at best the country's 4th or 5th richest man officially and probably wouldn't even make the top 10 if every thai were counted.

and apart from the REAL economic power of this country mentioned above, whose interests reach into many more industries than thaksin's ever did, there are also many other rich business people and families that continued to thrive during thaksin's time in government, and continue to thrive now after he is gone...the chearavanonts, the chirathiwats, the soponpanichs, the bhirom bhakdis, the mahagitsiris, the karnasutas, the wongkulsolkits, the srivikorns, the srisomburanontas, the phornpraphas, the techapaibuls....etc etc, hundreds of families and thousands of companies that they own that make up the business landscape, most of which are completely privately owned and not within the SET and therefore of unknown value.

people who make such a big deal about how Thaksin "dominated" the economy and how he ran rough shod over businesses have absolutely no clue of the scale and proportion of things they are talking about. as big as they were, his businesses were only a small part of a wide network of businesses and families represented in the business landscape here.

Edited September 21, 2007 by thedude

[meemiathai]

There I thought Thaksin was so powerful that he even controlled the anal muscles of every person living in Thailand when he was in power!

Was he really not that powerful?

[FarangNoi21]

Any comments I could make about politics in Thailand would be in breach of certain Thai laws. That said,

So, so you think you can tell heaven from hel_l, blue skies from pain

Can you tell a green field from a cold steel rail? A smile from a veil?

Do you think you can tell?

And did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts?

Hot ashes for trees?

Hot air for a cool breeze? Cold comfort for change?

And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage?

Edited September 21, 2007 by FarangNoi21

[Plus]

Have to agree with Thedude - Thaksin personally was far from dominating Thai business scene.

Having said that, he had most of new money on his side, only bankers were somewhat squeezed, and he additionally had lots of money directly involved with his government.

[papaya9]

Bottom line is that Thaksin feels worthless and bored without power. Who cares about wealth when you've lost your mojo.

Edited September 21, 2007 by papaya9

[samran]

Have to agree with Thedude - Thaksin personally was far from dominating Thai business scene.

Having said that, he had most of new money on his side, only bankers were somewhat squeezed, and he additionally had lots of money directly involved with his government.

True, but I think the thing to remember is when you are the government you write the rules for yourself in your favor. Eg:

- Thai Air Asia, 50% discount on landing charges by the Department of Aviation and BOI priveldges...who was the 49% shareholder?

- Control of the Telecoms regulator and basically screwing both TOT and CAT into the ground. Guess who comes to save the day..

- Want to get rid of your pesky mobile phone competition? Well then, limit foreign ownership to 25% for concession holders...

- Want to advertise on the subway? Well talk to Dr T's son cause he got the concessions after they were taken away from someone else.

- Want to make your hospitals profitable? Well then set up a public health scheme which directs money towards it.

- Free speech? Whats that? Buy the only independent news channel, break the terms of the concession (which by the way were paid to the PM's office) and then have your own PM's office 'protest' the changes, but not challenge them in court.

The list goes on, and would have gotten bigger.

As the 'Thailand is going to the dogs' crowd continually like to remind us, government decisions affect things, and tips the balance of power to whoever has the reins of power.

[sriracha john]

Oh come off it!

The war in the south is worse? thats a load of crap - I remember not so long ago people being herded into the back of lorries and dying of suffocation.

That is not "a load of crap" - i have been down there many times.

Here is a link on what is going on today:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/20...542899950_x.htm

Today??? the article was posted 45 days ago and regards an incident that occurred 115 days ago.

All that this basically boils down to is bitter expats, annoyed because the baht has gotten stronger, their visa is harder to get and their favourite beer has gone from 6% to 5%.

Sorry, i am on a very stable workpermit with one year visa, and that since many years, i drink alcohol maybe once in two or three weeks (at most).

very stable??? Now, which is it? Stable or unstable??? :D

i have a consecutive work permit. But i am aware that things might change easily here, and any security is an illusion.

Edited September 21, 2007 by sriracha john

[ColPyat]

very stable??? Now, which is it? Stable or unstable??? [/color]

What the hel_l has this nosy question to do with the thread topic?

To answer your curiosity - as stable as it can be in a country that changes laws and rules at a whim, and tends to apply those laws retroactively.

[sriracha john]

Not being nosy... just wishing to see some clarification between the two distinctly different responses that your posts reflected on the same issue. The inconsistency peaked my curiosity.

and you did, afterall, post both of them so it can't be too confidential to you.

So... your answer then, is, it's unstable... "Is that your final answer?"

If so, solo siam can take note and disregard your post in red.

Edited September 22, 2007 by sriracha john

[ColPyat]

So... your answer then, is, it's unstable... "Is that your final answer?"

Please stop fishing/trolling/baiting for purely semantic, and clearly off topic arguments with me. This will only result in both of us getting banned.

FYI - the thread title is: 'to Return To A Democratic Thailand'

My workpermit has nothing whatsoever to do with this thread.

[solo siam]

I believe that you don't really understand what subsidies are, and what they are for.

I don't know if you go shopping in the markets for your food, or just eat in restaurants. Food and other basic necessities are getting very expensive now.

So if food prices are getting very expensive now, then farmers are getting more money from their produce, right? Hence must be better off, since they are selling at a higher price and generally eat their own produce.

Inflation isn't particularly high, so its great that farmers are getting much more for their crops.

[Plus]

I haven't notices any significant increase in price of living over the past year. Food, clothing, basic services - it's all on the same level. Inflation was a lot higher two-three years ago. The effect of higher oil prices is over, prices are stable again now.

Re. stable/unstable - I think SJ just pointed out funny incosistency in describing Thailand as on a verge of collapse in one post and then mentioning stability in another.

The thing is our personal situation hasn't been affected in any way since the coup.

[Plus]

Have to agree with Thedude - Thaksin personally was far from dominating Thai business scene.

Having said that, he had most of new money on his side, only bankers were somewhat squeezed, and he additionally had lots of money directly involved with his government.

True, but I think the thing to remember is when you are the government you write the rules for yourself in your favor. Eg:

- Thai Air Asia, 50% discount on landing charges by the Department of Aviation and BOI priveldges...who was the 49% shareholder?

- Control of the Telecoms regulator and basically screwing both TOT and CAT into the ground. Guess who comes to save the day..

- Want to get rid of your pesky mobile phone competition? Well then, limit foreign ownership to 25% for concession holders...

- Want to advertise on the subway? Well talk to Dr T's son cause he got the concessions after they were taken away from someone else.

- Want to make your hospitals profitable? Well then set up a public health scheme which directs money towards it.

- Free speech? Whats that? Buy the only independent news channel, break the terms of the concession (which by the way were paid to the PM's office) and then have your own PM's office 'protest' the changes, but not challenge them in court.

The list goes on, and would have gotten bigger.

As the 'Thailand is going to the dogs' crowd continually like to remind us, government decisions affect things, and tips the balance of power to whoever has the reins of power.

Thedude basically said that Thailand't economy is a lot bigger than that and it's impossible for one person to dominate.

Thaksin was brutal in areas of his interest, and spreading, but those areas are relatively small by comparison. Altogether Shin Corp was probably in the top ten listed companies by market value, but still only about 1% of a yearly GDP.

[Mid]

I haven't notices any significant increase in price of living over the past year.

nam mun ........................

[Plus]

I haven't notices any significant increase in price of living over the past year.

nam mun ........................

I haven't noticed. There was a period when it got cheaper. Overall I don't think I spend more on gas than a year ago. Not noticeably anyway.