Ajarn Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 Do you play the stock markets in Thailand, or maybe the NYSE ? I've been trading online for a couple of years with some success, but the nature of the market seems to be different now since 9/11... I would be interested in hearing the experiences of others, and maybe get a good tip or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutethaigirl Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 Ajaarn Head over to the driving range opposite Airport Plaza on the corner. Find a few new friends in there that will help you. Mainly SET, in and out very fast so i a told CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProThaiExpat Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 After losing a bundle in 2002, I am sticking to index funds, ie. qqq and am waiting for the Nasdaq to bottom out before investing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabaijai Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 After losing a bundle in 2002, I am sticking to index funds, ie. qqq and am waiting for the Nasdaq to bottom out before investing. I switched to mostly index funds myself a number of years ago, after reading The Coffeehouse Investor. The cental msg is that no stock analyst, anywhere, has ever matched -- not to mention beaten -- the stock market average, so you'll do better betting on the stock market as a whole, via index funds, then in trying to pick a stock based on X information, whether it's your own research or someone else's. On the other hand for some folks the gambling aspect of the market is the best part, so why spoil the party by introducing reality? Coffeehouse Investor The Coffeehouse Credo Once you remove yourself from Wall Street's complete and total obsession with trying to beat the stock market average, and accept the fact that equaling the stock market average is a rather sophisticated approach to the whole thing, building a common stock portfolio becomes an immensely gratifying experience. Wall Street has conclusively proven to us that pursuit of performance above a benchmark is an unproductive use of our time, our talent and our money. By trying to beat the stock market average, it's easy to forget that the stock market has historically provided an excellent investment return, and by trying to beat an already good thing, investors are virtually guaranteed to end up below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 After losing a bundle in 2002, I am sticking to index funds, ie. qqq and am waiting for the Nasdaq to bottom out before investing. Well, I hope you shorted the indexes This year has been a crazy year. People are making decisions, not based on the quality of the companies, as is traditional, but in news from Iraq and everything else... I lost a bundle on a couple of stocks...I sold them off, and then shorted the stocks, which, because the prices continued to fall, helped to regain some of the loss.... I'm also waiting on the sidelines for the prices to bottom out, but I'd say there are lots of bargains out there now, like CSCO, an extremely strong company financially, but it has fallen victim to these outside market forces, forcing their price down to about $20. Unfortunately, I own shares in CSCO at $28...If the market ever turns around and reverts more to normal market forces, then I'll be okay..I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falong Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 Do you play the stock markets in Thailand, or maybe the NYSE ?I've been trading online for a couple of years with some success, but the nature of the market seems to be different now since 9/11... I would be interested in hearing the experiences of others, and maybe get a good tip or two... I've been online trading us markets for about 5 years. Some great bargains out there now. As soon as I'm ready will open an online trading account here in LOS. There are some good medium cap thai companies here paying 7-8% yearly dividends. Money to be made here for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 After losing a bundle in 2002, I am sticking to index funds, ie. qqq and am waiting for the Nasdaq to bottom out before investing. I switched to mostly index funds myself a number of years ago, after reading The Coffeehouse Investor. The cental msg is that no stock analyst, anywhere, has ever matched -- not to mention beaten -- the stock market average, so you'll do better betting on the stock market as a whole, via index funds, then in trying to pick a stock based on X information, whether it's your own research or someone else's. On the other hand for some folks the gambling aspect of the market is the best part, so why spoil the party by introducing reality? Coffeehouse Investor The Coffeehouse Credo Once you remove yourself from Wall Street's complete and total obsession with trying to beat the stock market average, and accept the fact that equaling the stock market average is a rather sophisticated approach to the whole thing, building a common stock portfolio becomes an immensely gratifying experience. Wall Street has conclusively proven to us that pursuit of performance above a benchmark is an unproductive use of our time, our talent and our money. By trying to beat the stock market average, it's easy to forget that the stock market has historically provided an excellent investment return, and by trying to beat an already good thing, investors are virtually guaranteed to end up below it. I figured I'd get some good tips here from you guys Most of the indexes are at low levels now, and some are in the red for the year, which seems to make them a good buy now...I remember reading that the market has, on average, gained 11% per year during the history of the market. In that case, it would only take me three years to make up the losses I've had since last December.... I wish I could find a monkey, or elephant, to pick my stocks. Testing has shown their picks to be better than the experts... Maybe things will quiet down after the American elections.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenk3z Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 In my opinion, it seems the US markets are being held down by energy costs (crude oil) and the anticipation of a possible terrorist attack before the elections. To answer your question, no, I'm not playing the stock market. Its playing me. Except for one sector - Real Estate Investment Trusts. But those are likely at their peak now. kenk3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 To answer your question, no, I'm not playing the stock market. Its playing me. Hey, ain't that the truth for me, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProThaiExpat Posted August 13, 2004 Share Posted August 13, 2004 The CoffeHouse quote was so right on!! It attempting to guage the bottom, a falancy for sure, I signed up for TimingCubes service to get a buy/sell/cash signal when then model indicates. Their stats for the past three years are immpressive, but who knows when stats are involved. I have tried maketvolume free for three weeks, and a careful reading of their mumbo-jumbo seems to indicated we are close to the bottom in QQQ, who knows. QQQ has been more or less bouncing on a support level n the 32.5-33.5 for a couple of weeks, but August isn't over, volume is low and I don't expect the real action until after the pros get back from vacation. The election is the real problem for the continutation of the recovery. While I am sure that will occur in the next year, getting in at the bottom is the problem facing me now. If I buy in to QQQ before the election, and the Democrats win, which appears more likely than before, should we not expect a temporary dip on that news? I would like to buy into that dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted August 13, 2004 Author Share Posted August 13, 2004 The CoffeHouse quote was so right on!!It attempting to guage the bottom, a falancy for sure, I signed up for TimingCubes service to get a buy/sell/cash signal when then model indicates. Their stats for the past three years are immpressive, but who knows when stats are involved. I have tried maketvolume free for three weeks, and a careful reading of their mumbo-jumbo seems to indicated we are close to the bottom in QQQ, who knows. QQQ has been more or less bouncing on a support level n the 32.5-33.5 for a couple of weeks, but August isn't over, volume is low and I don't expect the real action until after the pros get back from vacation. The election is the real problem for the continutation of the recovery. While I am sure that will occur in the next year, getting in at the bottom is the problem facing me now. If I buy in to QQQ before the election, and the Democrats win, which appears more likely than before, should we not expect a temporary dip on that news? I would like to buy into that dip. The last dip I bought on hasn't finished dipping yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiangMaiMike Posted August 29, 2004 Share Posted August 29, 2004 I lost a ton of money Day Trading in the late 90's... The more you trade, the more you lose, is now my Mantra. Buy and hold has been working well for me... but I did most of my buying just before the start of the 'war' in Iraq. Most positions (mainly tech) that I've added on dips since then are back in the red now. Portfolio is now at same place as it was a year ago after peaking the 3rd week in Jan. I think that most analysts and brokers who could figure this stuff out would have made enough money that they wouldn't waste time giving others advice. later, ChiangMaiMike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 20, 2004 Share Posted October 20, 2004 I have been trading online since it first became possible to do so. Been doing it from Thailand for about 9 years now. I only trade the US markets. Went to 100% cash in April 2000 when it became obvious to me that the market was topping. Have stayed in cash (except for some small exploratory buys that didn’t work out) until early this year. Actually would have started buying last year, but was too busy to devote the time to it. Have made some money this year, but it has been tricky. Sure ain’t like the 90s. Nothing like a raging bull to make you feel smart! I use the CANSLIM method of stock selection and market analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted October 21, 2004 Author Share Posted October 21, 2004 I'm convinced the only way to play and make money in the short term is to day trade, buying maybe 1000 shares, waiting to gain a few cents, then selling. Maybe only a 1-2% gain, but that's the only way I've made any money this year and last. The buy and hold strategy has my accounts down 34% to date...The companies are strong and will eventually regain the losses (I think!), but I'm not sure I'll live that long. If the market was reacting to normal business forces, I wouldn't have any worries. But the market is reacting almost exclusively to bad news. Even when a company releases quarterly earnings that are above the analysts estimates, the stocks don't go up as they would in the past. But, if that company posts earnings even a penny off of Wall St. estimates, the stock drops like a stone.... No invester confidence at all. Maybe the American elections will help. On any case, even if the market drops, money can always be made. It's just that judging whether to go long, or short, is strictly a gamble. And I'm a terrible gambler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 I bought a ton of the Google IPO shares (GOOG) for 85 USD, now they are 145 USD. Should have sold yesterday when they was 150 USD. Gambling is fun. Well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted October 21, 2004 Author Share Posted October 21, 2004 Should have sold yesterday Famous last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 It has been a tough market environment lately. For me, it is all about buying the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors as they break out of proper consolidations. Was basic materials, but recently seems to be shifting to high tech. If they start acting poorly, you must get out fast, as the sector rotation has been vicious. I don't believe in "buy and hold" unless you are talking about mutual funds. If any individual stock I buy drops 5-7% from my purchase price, I say bye bye; no exceptions. Many of the go-go stocks from the last bull market will likely never see their previous highs again, in spite of being "good companies". With a few exceptions, most new market cycles will be led by a whole new group of names. I haven't come across many people that can make money day trading over an extended period. All it takes is one stock gapping down 5 or 10% to wipe out a whole bunch of winning trades. Wimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 I am not a stock broker but do watch and invest carefully. If I may recommend looking at the precious metal opportunities. Stocks and pools especially. With the US dollar declining with no bottom in sight these are and will do well. In the last few years Ive profitted greatly. In my opinion the American stock market is in serious trouble, the debt bubble here is bursting. PEs are at historic highs and bull markets dont start from here. Theres trouble in the American markets and when Japan stops buying our bonds at their present rate our standard of living will change dramaticly. Merely a humble opinion of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medicinebox Posted October 21, 2004 Share Posted October 21, 2004 Put 7k into the Techmark. Went up to 9k, then BABANG!!! Worth 1800 quid last time I looked, I was squinting as well. TWATZ! 340 quid on stepstone. Value today 6 quid. 465 quid on iii, value today = fukc all. Actually I probably owe them money. 2k on Amerindo. Value today, cant even find them, but they know where I am cos they keep sending me a stupid glossy fukcing brochure that I can't even read!!! Every lining has a silver cloud though, I've made 160 pound out of Tesco's. Only took two years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 In my opinion the American stock market is in serious trouble, the debt bubble here is bursting. PEs are at historic highs and bull markets dont start from here. Theres trouble in the American markets and when Japan stops buying our bonds at their present rate our standard of living will change dramaticly. Merely a humble opinion of course. That is the latest doomsday scenario circulating. It is great for selling magazines, but I don’t buy into it. I have heard so many over the years, I have become immune. I’m an optimist, and continue to be very bullish on the USA. I feel that the USA will continue to lead the world with innovative new technologies. These are what fuel new bull markets. While I don’t expect a runaway bull like we experienced in the late 90s, I suspect we will revert to the “norm” of 1-2 year bulls followed by mild bears. I don’t see how you can call the market overvalued at current levels. I consider the market’s P/E ratio a very poor gauge of market value, but since you brought it up… The current P/E on the DJIA is 17.2. The 5 year historical high is 29.7 (3/19/02) and the 5 year low is 17.2 (today). Two better gauges would be the price/book value and the dividend yield. The current price/book is 3.93. The 5 year high is 8.29 (1/14/00) and the 5 year low is 3.45 (10/9/02). The current dividend yield is 3.6%. The 5 year high being 3.6% (today), and the 5 year low is 1.28% (1/14/00). If you are looking to invest in the leading technologies, there is really only one place to put your $... in my not so humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Larry Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 If I had to pick one stock it would be Qualcomm, QCOM. Must have had a shot of Viagara about a year ago. As posted index funds and also exchange traded funds, (ETF) are the way to go long term. If you like numbers, Best Book: Intelligent Asset Allocator by William J. Bernstein. He also has a web site, http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ and this is a link to the first two chapters of his book: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/BOOK/title.shtml There are also many links to info sites. Maintain your investing and trading accounts in your home country if possible. There is a boom coming in the US markets, maybe even another bubble. Buckle up!! Chookdee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 In my opinion the American stock market is in serious trouble, the debt bubble here is bursting. PEs are at historic highs and bull markets dont start from here. Theres trouble in the American markets and when Japan stops buying our bonds at their present rate our standard of living will change dramaticly. Merely a humble opinion of course. That is the latest doomsday scenario circulating. It is great for selling magazines, but I don’t buy into it. I have heard so many over the years, I have become immune. I’m an optimist, and continue to be very bullish on the USA. I feel that the USA will continue to lead the world with innovative new technologies. These are what fuel new bull markets. While I don’t expect a runaway bull like we experienced in the late 90s, I suspect we will revert to the “norm” of 1-2 year bulls followed by mild bears. I don’t see how you can call the market overvalued at current levels. I consider the market’s P/E ratio a very poor gauge of market value, but since you brought it up… The current P/E on the DJIA is 17.2. The 5 year historical high is 29.7 (3/19/02) and the 5 year low is 17.2 (today). Two better gauges would be the price/book value and the dividend yield. The current price/book is 3.93. The 5 year high is 8.29 (1/14/00) and the 5 year low is 3.45 (10/9/02). The current dividend yield is 3.6%. The 5 year high being 3.6% (today), and the 5 year low is 1.28% (1/14/00). If you are looking to invest in the leading technologies, there is really only one place to put your $... in my not so humble opinion. Hello Wimpy, I typed a long measured response to your eloquent response. Thank you for responding. Must have gotten timed out because it did not take. I agree with much of your stance but disagree with the short run 5-10 year run of intellectual properties staving off a serious adjustment. I run a large car dealer dont consider myself brilliant but any business person here knows the toliet is spinning and the feds spin may slow the turds demise but thats all postpone and slow. The piper is about to be paid. May I recommend not as the gospel but as fun reading John Maudlins www.frontlinethoughts.com newsletter, interesting and educational from both our prospectives. Thanks again Ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted October 22, 2004 Author Share Posted October 22, 2004 I don’t see how you can call the market overvalued at current levels. I consider the market’s P/E ratio a very poor gauge of market value, but since you brought it up… The current P/E on the DJIA is 17.2. Funny thing is a company like google, which George mentioned earlier, and which I subsequently did some research on, has a PE of 120! And today they are on a 26.90 run, so far... On a whim, after watching the movements over the last couple of days, and a moment after news of 3Q reports beating estimates hit the wires, I tested my current strategy out and caught about half the 26.90 before jumping out waaay ahead. This time Cheers, George for the tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mali_in_CM Posted October 26, 2004 Share Posted October 26, 2004 wimpy, You're smarter than average, getting out in 4/2000. I know a few who are 'holding' and might live long enough to get even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 27, 2004 Share Posted October 27, 2004 Hello Wimpy, I typed a long measured response to your eloquent response. Thank you for responding. Must have gotten timed out because it did not take. I agree with much of your stance but disagree with the short run 5-10 year run of intellectual properties staving off a serious adjustment. I run a large car dealer dont consider myself brilliant but any business person here knows the toliet is spinning and the feds spin may slow the turds demise but thats all postpone and slow. The piper is about to be paid. May I recommend not as the gospel but as fun reading John Maudlins www.frontlinethoughts.com newsletter, interesting and educational from both our prospectives. Thanks again Ralph <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Differing opinions is what makes a market. We'll know more in the fullness of time. Take care. Wimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 27, 2004 Share Posted October 27, 2004 wimpy,You're smarter than average, getting out in 4/2000. I know a few who are 'holding' and might live long enough to get even. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> If you are going to trade individual stocks, you must learn how to read the health of the market, and have a discipline for getting out. Otherwise, you will eventually get hurt; possibly to the point of no recovery. If your friends are holding stocks like VERT, BVSN, LU, LVLT, & SUNW, they will most likely NOT live long enough. I doubt these, and many like them, will ever come back. Cheers, Wimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted October 27, 2004 Author Share Posted October 27, 2004 wimpy,You're smarter than average, getting out in 4/2000. I know a few who are 'holding' and might live long enough to get even. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> If you are going to trade individual stocks, you must learn how to read the health of the market, and have a discipline for getting out. Otherwise, you will eventually get hurt; possibly to the point of no recovery. Cheers, Wimpy <{POST_SNAPBACK}> That's a good point about discipline. Sometimes it's best to set limits for yourself about how much you're willing to lose- or win- before either taking your lumps, or taking your profits... I've dumped all my Intel because it finally dawned on me that it was unlikely (famous last words on the market!) to get back, in my lifetime, to where I bought in at $33.... I realised, after the fact of course, that I should have shorted, but hey, c’est la vie. Still, it's better for me to dump it and free up the money for something else that may give me a better chance of making my money back that I lost in the last year (which I just got back through playing google hot and heavy for a couple of days- though I should have shorted yesterday rather than going long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wimpy Posted October 28, 2004 Share Posted October 28, 2004 That's a good point about discipline. Sometimes it's best to set limits for yourself about how much you're willing to lose- or win- before either taking your lumps, or taking your profits... I've dumped all my Intel because it finally dawned on me that it was unlikely (famous last words on the market!) to get back, in my lifetime, to where I bought in at $33.... I realised, after the fact of course, that I should have shorted, but hey, c’est la vie. Still, it's better for me to dump it and free up the money for something else that may give me a better chance of making my money back that I lost in the last year (which I just got back through playing google hot and heavy for a couple of days- though I should have shorted yesterday rather than going long <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Agree 100% on Intel. There is something called opportunity cost. While your sitting there, hoping and praying that dog will get you back to even, Google is going to the moon. The toughest part of this business is the psychology. If you can learn to be humble, admit it when you’re wrong, and quickly take your losses, you will be way ahead of the game. You would have to be nuts to short Google. That is one of the strongest stocks in the market. Short weakness, buy strength. Picking tops and bottoms is a loser’s game – imho. Go with the trend my friend! Wimpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajarn Posted October 28, 2004 Author Share Posted October 28, 2004 You would have to be nuts to short Google Not on that day. It dipped over 6 dollars after a few days of huge runs. Profit-taking I assume. If I play a short, I only buy-sell within that trading day. I've learned the hard way that lots can happen while I'm asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiGeared_HighThaied Posted October 28, 2004 Share Posted October 28, 2004 Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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