How Long Do You Plan To Stay Here?

[Upcountry]

I've been thinking about this off and on.

Political, societal (including attitudes toward farang), environmental, so many things spell change in the next five, ten, twenty years and more (or even less).

It makes me think twice about long term investments (building a house, etc.). The political situation requires no repeating, and, as society adjusts, patterns we've seen in other countries could have a positive or negative affect on the attitude to farangs, etc.. One of the bigger things though, relates to an article I saw in the Post today (it doesn't seem to be on the web version) about rice and flooding. See page 6, "Warming has led to higher yields of rice".

The ideal environment for growing rice is shifting North up to China. This may not have an impact here quite yet, but, to complicate the equation, other parts of the article indicate that demand for rice may be dropping around the world for socio-economic reasons. Moreover, the risk of flooding in the future is not just due to deforestation here, but also from melting snow caps in the Himalayas. When that's not happening, I think there may be the opposite problem of China's control of water flow when Thailand needs the water.

I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic. I'm pondering the nature of being flexible as an expat as the world changes speed up.

Is it smart to put down roots here? If not, where?

[Mobi]

If the political and other factors had been as bad 4 years ago as they are now i would never have built my house. As it is, if necessary, I can walk away from it without hurting my overall financial situation.

Other than that, I am fully prepared mentally to be on my way at any time the anti - farang sentiment dictates that I am no longer permitted to live here - i.e. I cannot renew my retirement visa. All my investments are offshore, so I can walk out with my brief case and lap top in hand - should the need arise.

Perversely, if Thailand does go into serious economic decline (which I personally doubt) it would probably help us farang visa extenders. We would get more Baht for our Dollars, and we would probably be be made more welcome to invest and help the country out of it's economic woes.

I doubt this will happen , and also doubt I will be kicked out. But You never know ; however, I don't have sleepless nights worrying about it.

What will be will be, and in the meantime I am enjoying my retirement, and still expect to be here in 10 - 15 years time.

I am glad though that I am not working nor have any business investment here. That would worry me.

[THAILIBAN]

Thanks god I did rent and not buy anything......

we Farang should not forget that most of us still have an "emergency exit" by returning to our native country...... the THAIs dont have that privilege, in case the economy declines extremely.....

I guess many Farang here (including myself) wait if there is a change in the political climate after a new government has been elected..... and if that new government is then ABLE and WILLING to address the problems (that includes the increasing crime rate).....

[MeaMaximaCulpa]

I believe that if you are a bona fide (but still temporary) resident of Thailand, you have nothing to fear for the future. But if you are living on the fringes, hanging by the skin of your teeth (is this a real expression?), you might have to start making plan B.

I do not think a new government will have as a priority to ease the visa rules for us foreigners, which in all fairness are not bad at all (the visa rules I mean, the foreigners can be of all sorts), compared to many other countries. I believe the main problem is the vague language in which the rules are written (on purpose of course), giving rise to different interpretations in different offices, and even between different officers. But this is done so that the officer in question can exercise his or her right to make discressionary rulings, on a case-by-case basis. So, dress up rather than down, and play by the rules, and you will have a much better chance of success.

So, to sum up: No, I am not in a hurry to leave, I think we will be just fine here, but we need to fulfill the requirements, and by a good safety margin (I know many will disagree to this, but be that as it may).

[Jingthing]

Until I can't get a new visa/extension or I decide to leave, or never. Hard to predict the future, really.

[Upcountry]

As OP, my goal is to find out what people living in LOS think of the environmental, political and economic future of living in Thailand. For me it's not just my status as an expat, but also about my Thai wife and our financial and health future here. I should have specified that.

Chiang Mai will get warmer, Bangkok may suffer more from to ocean rising, etc. Already water-starved areas of Thailand may become difficult to live in (water shortages for daily living) and so on. And of course the political situation will change as usual.

[Neeranam]

As OP, my goal is to find out what people living in LOS think of the environmental, political and economic future of living in Thailand. For me it's not just my status as an expat, but also about my Thai wife and our financial and health future here. I should have specified that.

Chiang Mai will get warmer, Bangkok may suffer more from to ocean rising, etc. Already water-starved areas of Thailand may become difficult to live in (water shortages for daily living) and so on. And of course the political situation will change as usual.

I don't give it a moments thought. I try to live one day at a time, enjoying the moment.

[cobra]

if necessary, I can walk away from it without hurting my overall financial situation. ... Other than that, I am fully prepared mentally to be on my way at any time

That's the key,

To be able to pull up roots at any time, for any reason, without being severely impacted financially or other. Albeit many pensioners may not have this flexibility.

[torrenova]

About 5 years ago I made the decision to come here and give it a year. The first year was back and forth from Hong Kong to Tokyo to London to Bangkok etc.

I set up some small businesses and have played with businesses outside of my career all my life, from before I left school so I thought I'd see where that took me. My plan was simple. Year one, make par, Year two, bank some cash. year three, additional investment from banked profits. Year 4, repeat year 3.

All went great, give or take some hickups. In May, someone turned off the tourist tap. People here decades had never seen anything like it. I'd expanded again and thankfully, I didn't go two feet in. Many have gone under. Many more will. September saw some improvement but June, July and August were terrible.

I rent but will get the wife a mortgage next year probably and put the house in trust for our baby daughter who is 3 months old.

We need Thailand for her linguistic development. I can teach her english and all other subjects until, well until required. Certainly until her teens for sure. I cannot teach her Thai or the Thai culture (mother is Thai). So I suspect that some way or another, we are stuck here at least until she is fluent in Thai and that will likely be after the first decade.

I'm not saying that we couldn't decamp for a while but it might be easier to remain here and I go outside if the businesses here cannot flourish sufficiently well. I had not inluded having a wife, child and 20+ years of education payments (I call it my Bt20,000,000 project !) into my financial calculations.

If I was single and had no ties, I would decamp at the first possible opportunity and would already have set up initial connections in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

[lazeeboy]

About 5 years ago I made the decision to come here and give it a year. The first year was back and forth from Hong Kong to Tokyo to London to Bangkok etc.

I set up some small businesses and have played with businesses outside of my career all my life, from before I left school so I thought I'd see where that took me. My plan was simple. Year one, make par, Year two, bank some cash. year three, additional investment from banked profits. Year 4, repeat year 3.

All went great, give or take some hickups. In May, someone turned off the tourist tap. People here decades had never seen anything like it. I'd expanded again and thankfully, I didn't go two feet in. Many have gone under. Many more will. September saw some improvement but June, July and August were terrible.

I rent but will get the wife a mortgage next year probably and put the house in trust for our baby daughter who is 3 months old.

We need Thailand for her linguistic development. I can teach her english and all other subjects until, well until required. Certainly until her teens for sure. I cannot teach her Thai or the Thai culture (mother is Thai). So I suspect that some way or another, we are stuck here at least until she is fluent in Thai and that will likely be after the first decade.

I'm not saying that we couldn't decamp for a while but it might be easier to remain here and I go outside if the businesses here cannot flourish sufficiently well. I had not inluded having a wife, child and 20+ years of education payments (I call it my Bt20,000,000 project !) into my financial calculations.

If I was single and had no ties, I would decamp at the first possible opportunity and would already have set up initial connections in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

been here 14 years ,everything i have is tied up in houses and land and a business ,i cant go anywhere even if i wanted .

[torrenova]

About 5 years ago I made the decision to come here and give it a year. The first year was back and forth from Hong Kong to Tokyo to London to Bangkok etc.

I set up some small businesses and have played with businesses outside of my career all my life, from before I left school so I thought I'd see where that took me. My plan was simple. Year one, make par, Year two, bank some cash. year three, additional investment from banked profits. Year 4, repeat year 3.

All went great, give or take some hickups. In May, someone turned off the tourist tap. People here decades had never seen anything like it. I'd expanded again and thankfully, I didn't go two feet in. Many have gone under. Many more will. September saw some improvement but June, July and August were terrible.

I rent but will get the wife a mortgage next year probably and put the house in trust for our baby daughter who is 3 months old.

We need Thailand for her linguistic development. I can teach her english and all other subjects until, well until required. Certainly until her teens for sure. I cannot teach her Thai or the Thai culture (mother is Thai). So I suspect that some way or another, we are stuck here at least until she is fluent in Thai and that will likely be after the first decade.

I'm not saying that we couldn't decamp for a while but it might be easier to remain here and I go outside if the businesses here cannot flourish sufficiently well. I had not inluded having a wife, child and 20+ years of education payments (I call it my Bt20,000,000 project !) into my financial calculations.

If I was single and had no ties, I would decamp at the first possible opportunity and would already have set up initial connections in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

been here 14 years ,everything i have is tied up in houses and land and a business ,i cant go anywhere even if i wanted .

The downturn in the USD exchange rate (time lag has set in and will take a period of good rates for confidence to return), the 30% capital controls, a military junta for a government, endemic corruption at every level (now more publicised) and all the other small things, such as a really bad 3 months and an uncertain future have probably devalued my businesses by 50% whereas I was, until May (first quarter was 30% ahead on net profits from a good 2006), predicting a conservative 25% growth. so I have been hit about 60%+ though profitability will only be down some 25-50%. Not sure how many years I could keep that up for though.