Sexual Frustration Will Hurt Asia's Economies

[LaoPo]

Sexual Frustration Will Hurt Asia's Economies

LP: Question: Do Thai families, in general, (also) prefer a baby- Boy, rather than a -baby- girl ?

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- ``The Geopolitics of Sexual Frustration.'' That's how Martin Walker, a senior fellow at the New School University of New York, refers to an underappreciated risk to Asia's economic outlook.

French demographer Christophe Guilmoto calls it ``masculinization.'' Others put it more bluntly: ``The Penis Preference.''

No matter what one calls it, the desire for sons in China, India and other Asian economies is causing a dangerous gender gap. In China, for example, 120 boys were born for every 100 girls in 2005, according to a new United Nations report. This growing testosterone glut is something investors making long-term bets on Asia should be monitoring, and closely.

``Sex ratio imbalances only lead to far-reaching imbalances in society,'' Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, head of the UN Population Fund, said in Hyderabad, India, on Oct. 29. ``We must carry forward the message that every human being is born equal in dignity, worth and human rights.''

Tell that to the ever-growing numbers of families from Beijing to New Delhi and from Hanoi to Kathmandu actively avoiding the birth of daughters. It's a cultural phenomenon governments have yet to address sufficiently and one that could have unexpected economic side effects.

The preference for boys often boils down to economics. Sons tend to support parents in their old age, while daughters are often seen as a liability. Families sometimes need to pay a dowry when daughters marry. In some cultures, sons perform last rites when parents die and continue the family name.

Reverse Darwinism

It's a bit of Darwinism in reverse. Families are conducting a kind of unnatural selection process to get ahead economically. Yet hundreds of millions of households engaging in such an experiment may backfire on entire economies. Guilmoto, who wrote the UN report, says men will outnumber women by 23 million in India and by 26 million in China by 2030. Some estimates are even higher.

In the 1990s, economist Amartya Sen drew attention to the phenomenon of ``missing women.'' Improved census data now allow us to see how much the trend is growing and could undermine Asian growth, productivity and lead to bigger budget deficits. It might even lead to an increase in violence.

This latter risk was detailed in the 2004 book ``Bare Branches: Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population.'' In it, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warned that Asia's shortage of women is giving rise to an entire generation of young men with no prospects of finding a mate. They argue that biology, sociology and history suggest the imbalance will lead to crime and social disorder.

Gender Gap

Farfetched, perhaps, yet the UN warns that the focus on sons in countries such as China, India, Nepal and Vietnam may fuel sexual violence and trafficking in women. The UN notes that if Asia's overall sex ratio were the same as the rest of the globe, in 2005 the region would have had 163 million more females.

Here, China and India should be the largest concern for investors. Multinational companies are relying on increased consumer demand in the two most-populous nations. So are investors, who are betting on strong economic growth, rising productivity and an ample supply of increasingly skilled labor.

``To address the socio-economic basis for the preference for boys, both societies need to reduce the dependence of parents on their male children, while improving the economic standing of daughters,'' says Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. ``This will require improvements in social security and policies to improve education and female participation in the workforce.''

Trafficking

One consequence of Chinese becoming richer may be more sex selection, not less. Improving ultrasound and amniocentesis technology is making it easier for parents to abort girls, and reports of female infanticide are becoming routine. The same is true of India; the wealthier the region, the wider the gender divide is likely to be.

What also concerns the UN is what all those single men will do with their desire for female companionship. Sadly, the real winner could be the human-trafficking business amid increased demand for prostitution and the outright purchase of mates.

China's government is beginning to address the issue. Earlier this year, the Communist Party vowed to take ``tough measures'' to control the imbalance. Yet China needs to become more aggressive in tackling a problem that's partly at the root of President Hu Jintao's push for a ``scientific outlook on development.''

Sexual Frustration

Hu wants to spread the benefits of China's 11.5 percent growth. At the moment, the lack of safety nets -- public help with education, health care and pensions -- means that sons are the safety net. Having a boy is your retirement plan and until that changes, Chinese may welcome fewer and fewer daughters.

Among the biggest obstacles is the not-in-my-backyard dynamic that demographers confront in Asia. It's recognition by parents that it's important to have more girls -- just as long as someone else has them. Breaking this NIMBY mindset will require tremendous political will and spending in the years ahead.

In Asia's case, worsening sexual frustration may frustrate economic growth.

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

LaoPo

[mrt273nva]

maybe that is the reason for the amount of trans-gendered people around. in the states we would call it a sausage fest.

[Jingthing]

Some of us would see this as GOOD news. I mean more dudes. Not the other stuff.

Edited November 2, 2007 by Jingthing

[TonyLeung]

For thousands of years, the majority of men were forced into celibacy.

[lannarebirth]

Ah, the return of the eunuch. Yeah they got what it takes to lead the world in the next century. My ass they do!

[LaoPo]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

Vietnam: 1.07

Singapore: 1.08

Taiwan: 1.09

Laos: 1.04, same as New Zealand

Greece - Germany: 1.06; Same as Russia but 'Life Expectancy at Birth' for Russian Males is: 59.12 years.... versus 75.15 for the Males in the USA...and 70.24 years for Thai Males

Italy - Spain: 1.07

India: 1.12

China: 1.11

Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/xx.html (click on 'People')

LaoPo

[chicowoodduck]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

Vietnam: 1.07

Singapore: 1.08

Taiwan: 1.09

Laos: 1.04, same as New Zealand

Greece - Germany: 1.06; Same as Russia but 'Life Expectancy at Birth' for Russian Males is: 59.12 years.... versus 75.15 for the Males in the USA...and 70.24 years for Thai Males

Italy - Spain: 1.07

India: 1.12

China: 1.11

Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/xx.html (click on 'People')

LaoPo

You could knock me over with a feather.....who would have "thunk?"

[Stephen Cleary]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

LaoPo

Thailand has more males than females according to the CIA figures, interesting?

These are the offical population figures from 2002:

Males ------ 30,971,000

Females --- 31,405,000

By the way, most Thais would prefer to have daughters these days than sons. Most Thais would say that daughters are much more inclined to come home and 'take care' of their parents.

By the way 2, who wants a son, when you can make millions by having a daughter and marrying her off to dumbo rich Farang guy?

[sbk]

Most the young Thai couples I know want 1 boy and 1 girl. Some just one child but don't seem inclined either way.

China and India will find themselves in trouble eventually with all the terminations of female fetuses. I've never heard of a woman here (at least where I live) terminating her pregnancy because the baby was female.

[Ijustwannateach]

Yet another situation in which people demonstrate they are too shortsighted to live with the technologies they have invented.

[LaoPo]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

LaoPo

Thailand has more males than females according to the CIA figures, interesting?

These are the offical population figures from 2002:

Males ------ 30,971,000

Females --- 31,405,000

1. those are the numbers of 2002.

2. Your numbers could be accurate but the official population numbers are different than the mentioned 1.05 male/female: "Sex Ratio - AT BIRTH".

You have to take the Infant Mortality Rate into consideration as more male babies die than female babies:

male: 20.13 deaths/1,000 live births

female: 17.51 deaths/1,000 live births (2007 est.)

3:

Age structure:

0-14 years: 21.6% (male 7,195,750/female 6,870,858)

15-64 years: 70.1% (male 22,547,238/female 23,092,881)

65 years and over: 8.2% (male 2,437,640/female 2,923,782) (2007 est.) (from the same CIA World Factbook)

The numbers are, estimated, in 2007.

Cheers

LaoPo

[fletchsmile]

Some of us would see this as GOOD news. I mean more dudes. Not the other stuff.

Jingthing. I think I sit on the opposite side of the fence on this topic, but couldn't help laughing at your response. Excellent post. One of the funniest I've read in ages.

[Stephen Cleary]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

LaoPo

Thailand has more males than females according to the CIA figures, interesting?

These are the offical population figures from 2002:

Males ------ 30,971,000

Females --- 31,405,000

1. those are the numbers of 2002.

2. Your numbers could be accurate but the official population numbers are different than the mentioned 1.05 male/female: "Sex Ratio - AT BIRTH".

You have to take the Infant Mortality Rate into consideration as more male babies die than female babies:

male: 20.13 deaths/1,000 live births

female: 17.51 deaths/1,000 live births (2007 est.)

3:

Age structure:

0-14 years: 21.6% (male 7,195,750/female 6,870,858)

15-64 years: 70.1% (male 22,547,238/female 23,092,881)

65 years and over: 8.2% (male 2,437,640/female 2,923,782) (2007 est.) (from the same CIA World Factbook)

The numbers are, estimated, in 2007.

Cheers

LaoPo

Cheers too. Interesting.

[PeaceBlondie]

Maybe I'm slow to understand the problem, but I don't see how it's that much of a threat economically.

Socially and culturally for Thailand at least, I don't see the problem. Does it mean that rampant prostitution that already pervades Thai culture will increase by no more than 5%? We have at least three genders here, maybe seven behaviors: straight men, straight women, bi men, bi women, gay men, gay women, transgenders.....

[WaiWai]

Also Vietnam ...

Oh Boy!

By Roger Mitton in Ha Noi

The Straits Times

Publication Date : 2007-11-02

Viet Nam’s chilling new preference for baby boys is not hard to fathom because of its entrenched male-dominant society

Visitors to primary schools in Viet Nam often feel chillingly uneasy to see rooms packed with boys.

At a typical Ha Noi kindergarten, teacher Nguyen Thi Thuy has noticed a dramatic change over the past five years.

“This year, my class has 25 children,” said Thuy. “Seventeen are boys and only eight are girls. When the little boys grow up, most of them will not be able to find a wife.”

A preference for sons has skewed birth ratios across Asia, especially in China and India, but its sudden appearance in Viet Nam and the size of the imbalance has stunned experts.

c'td at asianewsnet.net/epaper.php

[ThaidleHands]

The conclusions of the article are almost entirely wrong. As the competition intensifies for a limited supply of females it will become blindingly obvious to the contestants and their parents that the best way to attract a mate is by social, educational and economic achievement. Thus you will end up with a highly motivated and expanding lower middle class which will greatly drive productivity and the national economies.

The greater number of losers in the mating game are easily dealt with in quasi-democratic and non-democratic countries by the usual institutions; prisons, military and manual labor, all of which shorten life expectancy with little drawdown against overall national resources in unmodernized economies. The problem (which is not a problem at all) will self-correct within one or two generations and provide a great benefit to these societies.

[LaoPo]

Also Vietnam ...

Oh Boy!

By Roger Mitton in Ha Noi

The Straits Times

Publication Date : 2007-11-02

Viet Nam’s chilling new preference for baby boys is not hard to fathom because of its entrenched male-dominant society

Visitors to primary schools in Viet Nam often feel chillingly uneasy to see rooms packed with boys.

At a typical Ha Noi kindergarten, teacher Nguyen Thi Thuy has noticed a dramatic change over the past five years.

“This year, my class has 25 children,” said Thuy. “Seventeen are boys and only eight are girls. When the little boys grow up, most of them will not be able to find a wife.”

A preference for sons has skewed birth ratios across Asia, especially in China and India, but its sudden appearance in Viet Nam and the size of the imbalance has stunned experts.

c'td at asianewsnet.net/epaper.php

Sex Ratio - at BIRTH:

Vietnam: 1.07 versus 1.05 Thailand (and these are the 2007 estimates)

Singapore: 1.08

Taiwan: 1.09

LaoPo

[asiaworld]

Sex Ratio - at Birth

Thailand: 1.05 Male/Female; same as USA - UK - France - Nepal - Cambodia, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil for instance.

LaoPo

Thailand has more males than females according to the CIA figures, interesting?

These are the offical population figures from 2002:

Males ------ 30,971,000

Females --- 31,405,000

By the way, most Thais would prefer to have daughters these days than sons. Most Thais would say that daughters are much more inclined to come home and 'take care' of their parents.

By the way 2, who wants a son, when you can make millions by having a daughter and marrying her off to dumbo rich Farang guy?

Sounds about right.. 1.05 ratio at birth.. than .. skillful thai medicine kicks in ...

[Heng]

One boy, one girl, thanks. We have our boy, hopefully it'll balance out next year.

Knock on wood.

[canadiangirl]

Last I heard, the tides were already turning. Because of the shortage of brides for the young men, young women are in high demand in India, their parents receive a lot of marriage proposals, and parents-to-be have started to wish for female children now.

[LaoPo]

Last I heard, the tides were already turning. Because of the shortage of brides for the young men, young women are in high demand in India, their parents receive a lot of marriage proposals, and parents-to-be have started to wish for female children now.

Hmmmm...I don't know since the Sex Ratio - At Birth in India is still:

India: 1.12 male/female

&

China: 1.11

These are the Cia World Factbook's estimates for 2007.

LaoPo