ATTA’s 20% downgrade isn’t a rounding error, it’s a damning admission that their early guess on Chinese demand was way off the mark. Their latest guess might be closer. But the tough reality is that, even though Chinese travellers may still be spending, they are now choosier, and Thailand isn’t offering safety, value, or confidence. The crime, scam, and ransom/disappearance stories circulating on Chinese social media must also be doing real damage. Add higher costs, plus Hong Kong and Macau soaking up 40% of the market with easier access, and Thailand’s appeal looks pretty thin. The revised forecast doesn’t just show fewer travellers, it also suggests travellers expect more than Thailand is currently offering. Until safety perception and value improve, I suspect ATTA will need to use their eraser again!
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