How U.s Economy Effects People In Thailand?

[SamuiBond]

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Edited November 26, 2007 by SamuiBond

[jetjock]

It usually takes longer than expected for things to filter down but I think Thailand and many other countries will soon start feeling the negative ripple effects of the slowing of the US economy and weak dollar in terms of tourism and exports. I gauge this not by looking at market analyst and the other professionals whose jargon is sometimes over my head but just by looking at what my friends are doing and the changes they are beginning to make in their lives. Many of my friends and I used to spend a lot of time in Thailand every year but instead are now planning trips to Mexico since it is much closer and now makes more sense since the baht has become much stronger. There are usually cycles and in the long term almost everything that goes around eventually comes around but in the short term, the outllook for the US economy is not looking good and since it is beginning to affect people like myself and my friends that usually only spend a few months in Thailand, I would think that many economies inclluding Thailand will soon be affected by Americans keeping their weak dollars closer to home.

[Jingthing]

Jet, nice try, but American tourists are a minor player in incoming Thai tourism. I do think a declining US economy is still totally linked to most of the world economy, but some Americans going to Mexico instead of Thailand isn't the reason.

[chinthee]

Jingthing, so you admit it's still totally linked, yet do you admit the devastating effects that may accrue from such a linkage? The whole world may go into crap if the US sinks, yes or no?

Edited November 26, 2007 by chinthee

[Jingthing]

Yes, absolutely, without a doubt. I also think the dollar at its current levels suits Washington just fine. A meltdown, that is another story.

[chinthee]

Well, a low dollar suits an export economy, but that's really not what the US is all about anymore. It has long distributed its supply chain throughout the world.

We'll see how long the low dollar lasts. My guess is 9 months and then it will come back with a vengeance.

[Jingthing]

I think it will go lower with a risk of a meltdown. If it doesn't meltdown, I think it will rise again after a democrat is elected to the white house. I don't see any coming back with a vengeance. All guesses, but the risk of a meltdown is very scary.

[chinthee]

Yes a meltdown is extremely scary, because that also means a meltdown of the Euro. There will be no standard if that happens and a lot of chaos.

[kat]

^Thanks for talking sense, Chinthee. Although, I think a rebound may take longer than 9 months, but it will rebound.

it's worth remembering that oil prices are quoted in dollars. So while the price of oil has gone up, when you take into account that the dollar has been flushed down the toilet against most other countries, the increase in oil cost isn't as bad as it looks (for the rest of the world).

And no sympathy for the US - voting for Bush once was stupid but twice? You made your bed, now lie in it!

Please try to remember that more than 50% of Americans did not vote for George W. Bush.

From what I've seen on CNN the British are taking the biggest advantage of a weak dollar. New York is only a few short hours flight away and prices for goods are MUCH lower than in jolly old England. Good for them.

There seems to have been a new British invasion here in The City, especially today ( Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving ) the official start of the Shopping Holiday season. I've never seen so many of them before ( except in Thailand )

You can easily spot all the English tourists in Manhattan now - they usually are seen walking up and down 5th ave in large groups clutching maps, with those ( formerly empty ) huge wheeled suitcases to put stuff that they bought in, trailing behind them.........

Yeah, I noticed tons of English tourists shopping in the Greater Metropolitan DC area as well.

[chinthee]

Well, yes, floods of Euro-types and Angrits are coming to shop in the East coast this season, I mean how can you help it? With these exchange rates they can buy everything so much cheaper! Ok, more power to them; enjoy your day in the sun.

[kat]

Well, yes, floods of Euro-types and Angrits are coming to shop in the East coast this season, I mean how can you help it? With these exchange rates they can buy everything so much cheaper! Ok, more power to them; enjoy your day in the sun.

Oh, I have absolutely no problem with it, and was joking around with a bunch of English female shoppers yesterday on the DC Metro coming in from Pentagon City Mall. Earlier in the day, another group of English female shoppers tried to hold the doors of a NYC subway train open for me, as I was missing my stop to catch a train. So, yes, they and I seemed to be everywhere yesterday

*The only other significant effect of the weak dollar that I have witnessed inside the country is the amount of foreign land and property investors. I have never seen so many foreign investors buying up homes and residential properties since the Japanese boom in commercial real estate in the 1980s.

Edited November 26, 2007 by kat

[chinthee]

Yup, let them enjoy. See, this is the difference between Capitalists and others. We enjoy anyone who benefits from the results of capitalism! Again, enjoy Euro-types, we'll see you later!

[kat]

Yup, let them enjoy. See, this is the difference between Capitalists and others. We enjoy anyone who benefits from the results of capitalism! Again, enjoy Euro-types, we'll see you later!

Well, I didn't really say I was enjoying the property bit, but it is an open market. However, I have a serious problem with people who are flipping properties with no concern for any other negative impacts, but Americans are doing this as well, as the whole sub-prime market illuminates.

[chinthee]

Kat, there are so many squirrely games going on now with the sub-prime properties I don't know how to begin.

[kat]

Trust me - I know. I am an urban planner that has worked for a housing policy organization; We saw this coming several months before the story broke, and I saw it years before, as a resident and community planner of neighborhoods with large swaths of sub-prime loans.

[chinthee]

^Can you find me a good deal?

[kat]

Only if you are low-to-moderate income, because that is the target range of the non-profits for whom I work.

*And before someone misunderstands me, I DO NOT work on behalf of sub-prime loan sharks. I work for organizations that are community developers and non-profit housing producers with longterm, positive track records.

Edited November 26, 2007 by kat

[jetjock]

Jet, nice try, but American tourists are a minor player in incoming Thai tourism. I do think a declining US economy is still totally linked to most of the world economy, but some Americans going to Mexico instead of Thailand isn't the reason.

I didn't mean to infer in any way that American tourists would have much effect directly on the Thai economy since Americans represent such a small part of Thai tourism. When I am in Thailand I see very few Americans but mostly Brits, Aussies, Germans and Scandanavians. I was merely saying that many American's are reassessing their travel destinations especially to places like Europe and my take is that the overall ripple down effect as it affects other economies will also trickle down to affecting the Thai economy. I do not claim to be an economist so I might be wrong, but that is the way that I see it in expanding global economies.

[chinthee]

Good for you. Get those homes filled with good people.

Edited November 26, 2007 by chinthee

[NovaBlue05]

^Thanks for talking sense, Chinthee. Although, I think a rebound may take longer than 9 months, but it will rebound.

it's worth remembering that oil prices are quoted in dollars. So while the price of oil has gone up, when you take into account that the dollar has been flushed down the toilet against most other countries, the increase in oil cost isn't as bad as it looks (for the rest of the world).

And no sympathy for the US - voting for Bush once was stupid but twice? You made your bed, now lie in it!

Please try to remember that more than 50% of Americans did not vote for George W. Bush.

Actually, 60M out of 300M voted for Bush so lets call it 20%.

Sounds better that way

[SamuiBond]

WARNING: THIS POST MAY INCLUDE A WARNING

Keep your Euros in one account and dollars (if possible) in other in order to keep buying the best priced baht. Still wanting to hear if anyone has actually been affected here in Thailand...

[Naam]

Keep your Euros in one account and dollars (if possible) in other in order to keep buying the best priced baht. Still wanting to hear if anyone has actually been affected here in Thailand...

? ?

[Beardog]

WARNING: THIS POST MAY INCLUDE A WARNING

Keep your Euro's in one account and dollars (if possible) in other in order to keep buying the best priced baht. Still wanting to hear if anyone has actually been affected here in Thailand...

How would that have any affect. if I bought with Euro's In the U.S. or here, I would have to purchase the Euro's at the current trading rate & probably lose 2 times in changing notes or vice versa. And if you had Euro's You only get charged once. Even if it is in stocks . If you stuffed your 2 Types of currencies in a jar in the ground It would still have the same trading value .Mai?

Maybe I misunderstood?

I guess the answer would be yes partially because of their dollar based off the U.S. dollar & more people are here from Europe. So Thailand would get the short end of the stick . Maybe on the other hand it makes it even more attractive to come here or move here & build a house or get a condo while the currency rate is great. It seems that most countries I have been to after a while figure out the coin difference & charge accordingly.

Edited November 27, 2007 by Beardog

[Beardog]

it's worth remembering that oil prices are quoted in dollars. So while the price of oil has gone up, when you take into account that the dollar has been flushed down the toilet against most other countries, the increase in oil cost isn't as bad as it looks (for the rest of the world).

And no sympathy for the US - voting for Bush once was stupid but twice? You made your bed, now lie in it!

The first 4 years Bush wasn't voted in but found a way to cheat his way in the "Chad" in his brothers state. The second time that was a huge mistake that all the people I talk to are truly bummed out that the mistake they made will last at least the next 20 years or whatever time it takes to rebuild the funds & image loss the U.S.

Most of my friends seem to be republican & are not planning on voting republican next round as Bush really screwed the pooch on the republican path to make things good for the people that put them in office. I can't find anyone in my group of pier's that feel at this point they can trust their party (I am not saying Dems are saints either) I would have voted Pee Wee Herman in over Bush! And I am a registered republican & usually split the ticket by voting against the Republicans.

So I guess that comment should be more like And no sympathy for the people that voted for Bush cause the rest that didn't sure are not in this boat.

Edited November 27, 2007 by Beardog