Real Estate Prices Hard To Maintain

[thaigene2]

From the Nov 24 Edition (pg 6 - leading article/editorial)

[in relation to 'many' countries - you be the judge on relevance to Thailand]

"Real estate prices look high relative to incomes and rents in many countries, and while that has been true for several years, it means they are at risk of falls. It will always make sense to own a residential property - it hedges our own demand for somewhere to live - but as a pure investment, real estate looks vulnerable."

'Nuff said..for those thinking to buy-to-let..Thai speculators, hope you are reading this!

[Jingthing]

Yeah, as always, but you could argue that Bangkok is still cheap compared to other Asian big cities: Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc.

[howtoescape]

Yeah, as always, but you could argue that Bangkok is still cheap compared to other Asian big cities: Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc.

There is only a limited amount of land in Singapore and HK, hence keep the population numbers steady and prices should remain constant, from what ive seen on the news this week (On CCTV news channel) Shanghai/Beijing property prices are in freefall.

[Irene]

Good point from Financial Times but they are talking about the conditions in UK where the property value has gone beyond any expectation. Now it is due for correction.

[jumnien]

For 90% of us, we'll be buying a lot more real estate in our lives in the future than we will be selling. Lower prices is good news!

[quiksilva]

The real estate markets of the UK, US, Oz and in fact many mature markets have looked over valued to me for several years now. Thailand is quite a bit behind the curve in comparison to these markets. Sure I think high end condos are over saturated, this will lead to lower rents, and some sales from unsatisfied investors, but that does not mean that Thailand will follow suit exactly in line with these markets, far from it.

Do not confuse the situation over there with what's happening here. There are different market forces are at work. Despite what it seems, the vast majority of units here are purchased by Thais and most of these are buying residences, or second residences (a condo in the city, and a house for the weekends).

What is happening over there, is crash in capital values due to the credit crunch, this of course is very bad news for investors there who already have very low rental returns (3-4%), and now, best case, they have little to no capital appreciation either!

So will there be any fallout from those markets crashing? Of course. Holiday homes are always the first things to be sold when there is a pressing need to tighten the belt!

Edited December 5, 2007 by quiksilva

[pkrv]

The real estate markets of the UK, US, Oz and in fact many mature markets have looked over valued to me for several years now. Thailand is quite a bit behind the curve in comparison to these markets. Sure I think high end condos are over saturated, this will lead to lower rents, and some sales from unsatisfied investors, but that does not mean that Thailand will follow suit exactly in line with these markets, far from it.

Do not confuse the situation over there with what's happening here. There are different market forces are at work. Despite what it seems, the vast majority of units here are purchased by Thais and most of these are buying residences, or second residences (a condo in the city, and a house for the weekends).

What is happening over there, is crash in capital values due to the credit crunch, this of course is very bad news for investors there who already have very low rental returns (3-4%), and now, best case, they have little to no capital appreciation either!

So will there be any fallout from those markets crashing? Of course. Holiday homes are always the first things to be sold when there is a pressing need to tighten the belt!

I could add a twist to your thoughts - The primary home could be sold rather than the holiday home, which may have been bought for just this type of situation, i.e. it was a retirement home all along. If this is the case VERY bad news for property prices in the West and Japan (aging population etc) and an interesting development for Thailand, don't know...

[Hampstead]

2005 was the optimum year for property rises in bkk, the relation with property in asia has strong links to the rise or fall of foreign buying on asian stockmarkets. Alot of this money from the asian markets has seen its way into the property markets, thailand is no exception

so to bring this article to the table is very apt and in tune to what is happening in todays world property market

do not assume that only rich thais are buying the high end condos of the day

investors from hong kong, singapore , investment companies formed just to invest in property are also the major reasons of the sale of high end units in bkk today

Will investors continue the push of property purchases in bkk due to continued political instability or further crisis in the money markets, the answer is of course not

and what happens to the bkk property market when the bot starts to raise the interest rates back up tp 5-5.5% to curb inflation?

How about the continued political instability, November saw the largest selling in one single month by foreign investors on the thai stockmarket EVER ON RECORD due to worries of the future of thai policy?

the answer is to rent in bkk, as prices have always been amazingly cheap compared to singapore, hk or london

Edited December 6, 2007 by Hampstead

[thaigene2]

Some excellent points raised by everyone above. IMHO - I agree renting at present is absoulutely best. Two or three years from now could present a RADICALLY different market prospect for those with cash still in the bank - and no debts.

However, I think PKRV has a really good point too. If he's moving out here to retire in his BKK condo then he should sell his Hampstead (for the most part, that's an upmarket area of London) property now - AND FAST! He pockets the cash and lives the life of riley out here -

The only downside I can see for those waiting in the wings (inc me), is the future winds of change regarding foreigners living in Tai-land. Which brings us back to the old question of visas for the white-eyed-ghosts with no chinese influence in a land where that is ever more important. Xe-xe..ahh

The downside for everyone buying or already bought - you don't know anymore than me what some future govt will do to your rights to stay here - condo/house or otherwise - 2, 3 or 5 years from now. Better hope they still like you..cause they owe you NOTHING.

Edited December 6, 2007 by thaigene2

[thaigene2]

forgot to reply to Irene above..

The context was actually US prices - but as you can read it went on to talk about worldwide prices..

[pkrv]

Some excellent points raised by everyone above. IMHO - I agree renting at present is absoulutely best. Two or three years from now could present a RADICALLY different market prospect for those with cash still in the bank - and no debts.

However, I think PKRV has a really good point too. If he's moving out here to retire in his BKK condo then he should sell his Hampstead (for the most part, that's an upmarket area of London) property now - AND FAST! He pockets the cash and lives the life of riley out here -

The only downside I can see for those waiting in the wings (inc me), is the future winds of change regarding foreigners living in Tai-land. Which brings us back to the old question of visas for the white-eyed-ghosts with no chinese influence in a land where that is ever more important. Xe-xe..ahh

The downside for everyone buying or already bought - you don't know anymore than me what some future govt will do to your rights to stay here - condo/house or otherwise - 2, 3 or 5 years from now. Better hope they still like you..cause they owe you NOTHING.

thaigene2 - thanks for the compliment - when I think of such issues I always think of Charles Darwin (Actually the other guy no one remembers) who got it wrong. It is not 'the survival of the fittest' it is the survival of the most diverse. Case in point if 10% of dodos could have flown they may have stood a chance, all dodo's evolving a larger beak to clonk each other over the head with - outmatched by a club, aerial ability 0.

Edited December 6, 2007 by pkrv

[quiksilva]

Some excellent points raised by everyone above. IMHO - I agree renting at present is absoulutely best. Two or three years from now could present a RADICALLY different market prospect for those with cash still in the bank - and no debts.

However, I think PKRV has a really good point too. If he's moving out here to retire in his BKK condo then he should sell his Hampstead (for the most part, that's an upmarket area of London) property now - AND FAST! He pockets the cash and lives the life of riley out here -

The only downside I can see for those waiting in the wings (inc me), is the future winds of change regarding foreigners living in Tai-land. Which brings us back to the old question of visas for the white-eyed-ghosts with no chinese influence in a land where that is ever more important. Xe-xe..ahh

The downside for everyone buying or already bought - you don't know anymore than me what some future govt will do to your rights to stay here - condo/house or otherwise - 2, 3 or 5 years from now. Better hope they still like you..cause they owe you NOTHING.

No laws have actually changed regarding foreign ownership, so I don't see the problem here.

I take your point on Visas though.

Edited December 7, 2007 by quiksilva

[dotcom]

Thaigene. Take a memo. If they change the visa rules sell up & move to Malaysia. Regards.

[thaigene2]

Thaigene. Take a memo. If they change the visa rules sell up & move to Malaysia. Regards.

Dotcom

PS> If they change the visa rules there will be no buyers.

[lapamita]

i just bought,or leased ( you know what i mean),,2400qm of land near the beach 1km ,on the mainland near kosamet.

it cost 850.000 and easy to make it ready to construct ( good reseidential area, a lot of foreigners)

and i was having an idea to develop it.

the only point i am not sure, is about the f..... of visashit here in thaind,, bcs i am not married.

until now i am not sure i will develop or resell the land with profit whats very easy now.

i dont know what the thais want with this visaregulations,,,, when i bringing millions to develop this hole shit stay even in thailand when i get a heartattache,,and returns to thais ( in nearlry all cases)

statisticly i live 25 years more,,,,and its back to thais.......

most beautiful things like houses, restaurants or wahtever is run by foreigners........

i maybe see and wait what happen next year

[thaigene2]

i just bought,or leased ( you know what i mean),,2400qm of land near the beach 1km ,on the mainland near kosamet.

it cost 850.000 and easy to make it ready to construct ( good reseidential area, a lot of foreigners)

and i was having an idea to develop it.

the only point i am not sure, is about the f..... of visashit here in thaind,, bcs i am not married.

until now i am not sure i will develop or resell the land with profit whats very easy now.

i dont know what the thais want with this visaregulations,,,, when i bringing millions to develop this hole shit stay even in thailand when i get a heartattache,,and returns to thais ( in nearlry all cases)

statisticly i live 25 years more,,,,and its back to thais.......

most beautiful things like houses, restaurants or wahtever is run by foreigners........

i maybe see and wait what happen next year

Sorry if I have trouble understanding you...but I thiknk you mean you want to develop this land into a business - tourism etc. But you're worried about your visa. That shouldn't be a problem...but you need advice. Check with one of the 2 or 3 companies that advertise here .. If you're trying to do it on just a tourist visa that could be a problem though