This Week-end's Election - Will It Restore Democracy In Thailand?

[Ping]

Interesting question posed by the OP. We can all have an opinion, but it really is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence. After all, constitutional changes following the elections after the 1991 coup were thought by many to preclude any further coups. It was not until some months before the '06 coup that rumours started to circulate, mainly sparked by certain military comments and actions (including the reassignment of many pro-Thaksin senior military staff), and the coup action itself surprised a great many. Don't sell short the pressure that the international stage can bring to bear (as has been proven previously).

[PhilHarries]

Interesting question posed by the OP. We can all have an opinion, but it really is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence. After all, constitutional changes following the elections after the 1991 coup were thought by many to preclude any further coups. It was not until some months before the '06 coup that rumours started to circulate, mainly sparked by certain military comments and actions (including the reassignment of many pro-Thaksin senior military staff), and the coup action itself surprised a great many. Don't sell short the pressure that the international stage can bring to bear (as has been proven previously).

Would that be the same international pressure that is having such a profound impact on the junta in Rangoon?

[sutnyod]

It looks like the PPP are headed for a majority (at least in votes) in the election......do you think that Thailand will be a democracy after the election?

The outcome signifies that the coup d'etat was completely meaningless. I think we are heading for another one and hope I am wrong.

[Ping]

Interesting question posed by the OP. We can all have an opinion, but it really is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence. After all, constitutional changes following the elections after the 1991 coup were thought by many to preclude any further coups. It was not until some months before the '06 coup that rumours started to circulate, mainly sparked by certain military comments and actions (including the reassignment of many pro-Thaksin senior military staff), and the coup action itself surprised a great many. Don't sell short the pressure that the international stage can bring to bear (as has been proven previously).

Would that be the same international pressure that is having such a profound impact on the junta in Rangoon?

Apples and oranges. We are talking about Thailand and your assumptions of regional political dynamics are invalid notwithstanding certain similarities and the physical proximity of the two countries. As I said initially, no-one really knows what the future holds, but if we look to the lessons of the '92 revolt - as one possible scenario - then it may be that the military will also look to the lessons of that era. After all, the dynamics of the current situation are totally different from those leading up to the '06 coup. If certain things occur (and I should not need to spell this out), it is clear that there is a real danger of history repeating itself. I have no doubt that the military will be aware of the lessons, since the political actions they took in the '06 coup followed the same formula as previous coup actions (ie, they clearly had and have a thorough understanding of the historical situation). That being said, I maintain the view that the international stage could play a paramount role.

If you disagree with me, that's fine - no problem. But give us some substance to support your view rather than throwing a one-liner.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

I'm worried about the outcome. If PPP wins, the junta has already set them up for dissolution.

If they lose, it will be blamed on the military appointed Election Commission...ie: Vote tampering (record? early voting....10 times the norm)

Seems to me it's a lose/lose situation.

The people will not be allowed to vote against the military.... the proof being the junta has passed laws allowing them to step in when they see fit.

Worrisome indeed.

what's so worrisome pray tell? how many civilians were murdered by the junta present in power? how many billions were shuffled tax free abroad by the junta? do we farangs have to fear the junta more than Thaksin? will the democratic PPP give us farangs SOME rights? how will democracy affect the life style of farangs in Thailand?

the PPP will do the same for farang as the TRT did. Take more away. The PPP is the love child of the TRT.

[dog412]

Real democracy is something rare in developing nations. The majority of the Thai people are not aware what it really means to have a true democracy. Looking at the political parties few are built on an ideology and personal interest dominates their actions. It is unfortunately something Thailand shares with many countries. A strong, honest and acceptable leader could change all this – but doubt such a person will be accepted by the established elite of the country.

What country has such a leader now? Please: even ONE example.

I might be wrong here, but didnt Malaysia used to have a strongman that stabilized and brought prosperity to the country?

Do not know if he was honest or corrupt.

Anyone know who i talk about? I think he was in charge for 10-12 years?

interesting sarcasm. and yes, he was the racist islamist believing bigot who converted Malaysia into a Islamic state. he could have just "rationally" explained the Bumiputra" laws as a way to justify a widening gap in wealth distribution, but no, he is a extremist. the percentage of Malaysia's ethnic population does not justify an Islamic state.

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

The one thing I will never understand is why Farangs ever began to think that TRT was anti-Farang.

If anything it became a lot easier to do business in Thailand, set up companies.. It really was a lot better than the military government that followed.

...

Oh, right, bar closing times.. Yup, anti-farang.

But even on that, keep in mind that the morality laws all came from the hat of the Phalang-Dharma faction in TRT, under Chamlong Srimuang and with Purachai Piumsomboon being another prominent figure there. They all left TRT (and aren't in PPP) and with that, hopefully, also the whole social order spiel is a thing of the past.. If anything there's a number of, how to say.. pro-vice individuals in PPP..

[Beardog]

QUOTE (bulmercke @ 2007-12-22 19:34:37Venezuala - Hugo Chavez - a real hero of mine - and any enemy of this evil current US administration is a friend of mine

I hope you are not serious I can see if you don’t like Bush , But if you really love Chavez I would check myself into the nearest hospital & see if you are suffering from serious brain disorders Maybe I am reading your intension wrong but did you love Hitler as well?

QUOTE (Naam @ 2007-The United States of America?

Naam I love it when you post your humor is outstanding & I mean that!!!!!!

QUOTE (Jingthing @ 2007-12-22 21:43:34) Hugo Chavez, dangerous buffoon. It is possible to dislike BOTH Bush and Chavez. Well put !!!!!!

[sriracha john]

The one thing I will never understand is why Farangs ever began to think that TRT was anti-Farang.

You might find some answers spread throughout about 20,000 posts on the visa forum.

[wilko]

Well they're back now...so how long will they last this time?.....or will democracy and civil law prevail?

[PhilHarries]

If you disagree with me, that's fine - no problem. But give us some substance to support your view rather than throwing a one-liner.

I apologise for my sarcasm but I am an increasingly vehement critic of the UN who I see as a money wasting bunch of ineffectual windbags. Of course you are correct there is no comparison between the two regimes or nations. Leaving aside the historical lessons learnt the biggest difference is that Burma is an isolated state entirely propped up by China in return for cheap energy. Thailand, on the other hand, is much more western oriented and open to international pressure via trade embargos and the like.