Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[marshbags]

Appologies if this has been posted already. I just saw this BBC Website analysis of the present situation. It mentions Prem and the monarchy, but I assume it's fine since it's been there sinc e the 28th (Dec), and I had no porblem downloading it. It is from Jonathan Head who's usually pretty spot on as far as I can tell about Thailand's pro-anti-Thaksin mess. But I reckon the aristocrats and upper-middle-classes must hate his reports, because he points the spotlight at them as trying to upset democracy. Anyway - the link is here> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7162774.stm

I think Jonathan analysed it well (by gathering info from Thai newspapers) except one thing. He (intentionally?) skipped to mention about all corruption cases against Thaksin (which is the main cause people here, in power or not, wanted to kick him out of the kingdom). Democracy thing is just what Thaksin and his gang used to hide themselve and scare people. I believe majority of people in Thailand, like it or not, commonly agreed since 1932 to go the democracy way. This is the ghost Taksin and his gang tried to scare people that someone will turn Thailand away from democracy and back to monarchy day again.

And you think 14 million votes Democrat received this time is from "upper-middle-class" ?

It's all about Thaksin's propaganda to make believe that the royal family and military wanted to kick him out because he will make poor people rich (in 6 years!). Only idiots can believe his propaganda.

oh! I saw many "farang" here fall into his trap also. Not sure because they have "Isan" wife or what.

I watch this jounalists observations and all i can say is, he is seemingly bias towards Thaksins ilk in as much as he never once metiones the reasons behind todays situation, corruption, manipulation of the constitution, why the coup took place (the real reasons ) ect. ect.

I always listen in the hope of some mention of the above and find myself thinking <deleted> mention some of the real issues for god sake.

J. Head is either censored in his reporting or following instructions to limit his reporting to favour Thaksin for some reason ???????

DOES THIS REPORTER STAY IN BANGKOK / THAILAND, OR DOES HE LIVE OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY AND JUST FLY IN ON CHOSEN DAYS TO BE FILMED IN THE CAPITAL TO MAKE IT APPEAR HE IS RESIDENT DURING THE UNREST. ??????

Talk about bending and being economical with the truth, and from a BBC U.K. reporter at that.

He,s a load of verbal bollos, full stop.

marshbags

Edited January 1, 2008 by marshbags

[jumnien]

On September 18, 2006 there was a hungry pig that was looking at a big trough of delicious food. On September 19th, 2006 there was a pig that had nudged himself in to feed at the trough and didn't contemplate coming up for air for 15 months, and even after that, the stuffed pig still can't back off and admit he just can't eat anymore.

Looking for reasons for the coup and reasons why the pig wanted to go to the trough or blaming the whole scenario on the pig that was feeding at the trough before aren't really all that compelling.

There are great arguments that portray the military juntas of Thailand and Myanmar as the white knights slaying the evil beasts. Some people believe the arguments, but the majority of us just don't.

Happy New Year!!!

[younghusband]

Appologies if this has been posted already. I just saw this BBC Website analysis of the present situation. It mentions Prem and the monarchy, but I assume it's fine since it's been there sinc e the 28th (Dec), and I had no porblem downloading it. It is from Jonathan Head who's usually pretty spot on as far as I can tell about Thailand's pro-anti-Thaksin mess. But I reckon the aristocrats and upper-middle-classes must hate his reports, because he points the spotlight at them as trying to upset democracy. Anyway - the link is here> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7162774.stm

I think Jonathan analysed it well (by gathering info from Thai newspapers) except one thing. He (intentionally?) skipped to mention about all corruption cases against Thaksin (which is the main cause people here, in power or not, wanted to kick him out of the kingdom). Democracy thing is just what Thaksin and his gang used to hide themselve and scare people. I believe majority of people in Thailand, like it or not, commonly agreed since 1932 to go the democracy way. This is the ghost Taksin and his gang tried to scare people that someone will turn Thailand away from democracy and back to monarchy day again.

And you think 14 million votes Democrat received this time is from "upper-middle-class" ?

It's all about Thaksin's propaganda to make believe that the royal family and military wanted to kick him out because he will make poor people rich (in 6 years!). Only idiots can believe his propaganda.

oh! I saw many "farang" here fall into his trap also. Not sure because they have "Isan" wife or what.

I watch this jounalists observations and all i can say is, he is seemingly bias towards Thaksins ilk in as much as he never once metiones the reasons behind todays situation, corruption, manipulation of the constitution, why the coup took place (the real reasons ) ect. ect.

I always listen in the hope of some mention of the above and find myself thinking <deleted> mention some of the real issues for god sake.

J. Head is either censored in his reporting or following instructions to limit his reporting to favour Thaksin for some reason ???????

DOES THIS REPORTER STAY IN BANGKOK / THAILAND, OR DOES HE LIVE OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY AND JUST FLY IN ON CHOSEN DAYS TO BE FILMED IN THE CAPITAL TO MAKE IT APPEAR HE IS RESIDENT DURING THE UNREST. ??????

Talk about bending and being economical with the truth, and from a BBC U.K. reporter at that.

He,s a load of verbal bollos, full stop.

marshbags

Blame the messenger if you like but the truth is that Jonathan Head, who is permanently based in Bangkok, is a distinguished and dependable BBC journalist.Most will recognise that the post above is franly just ignorant abuse and that the BBC record on Thailand has generally been evenhanded, recognising Thaksin's abuses but also acknowledging he fell foul of the power elite's vested interests.Part of the problem is that partisan obsevers, many of whom like Marshbanks are essentially decent, either cannot or will not see the big picture.

[John K]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

[John K]

Sounds like a lot of folks have been drinking the junta's kool-aid and enjoying every drop!

I am curious what “kool-aid” means. If I were to guess, it is a statement of frustration when proven wrong or confronted with facts hard to accept. Can you please explain it.

[younghusband]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

With all due respect rather than resort to accusations of flaming, it's more productive to attempt to deal with points made intelligently.Moderators may wish to correct me if I'm wrong but in my view its simply absurd to regard my post on Jonathan Head as a flame.

[blaze]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

With all due respect rather than resort to accusations of flaming, it's more productive to attempt to deal with points made intelligently.Moderators may wish to correct me if I'm wrong but in my view its simply absurd to regard my post on Jonathan Head as a flame.

Of course it wasn't a flame- (certainly not on the level of flames directed at anyone questioning the coup- wherein we are called 'idiots', 'ignorant' 'uneducated' etc.)

For those who accuse Head of being biased - or perhaps even 'directed' (???????) in his reportage- I suggest they read the article agains:

"...how can Thailand develop a political system which reflect the wishes of all its voters, and with checks and balances built into it which are independent enough to resist the power of a politician as popular and wealthy as Thaksin Shinawatra?"

[Ricardo]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

You're partly mistaken, the people have chosen, on the party-vote the result is a clear dead-heat. That is part of the problem, there is a major rift in Thai society & politics. And no amount of claiming, based on the candidate-vote, that Thaksin/Samak/PPP have an clear majority, will make that awkward fact go away.

I do also agree that, even after the (Thaksin-appointed, not junta or subsequent appointed-government) EC completes the handing-out of red & yellow-cards, the PPP will be the largest single party. I have always said that TRT would have won a fair election. Although their share of the vote is falling significantly every time. And that is the will of the people - which I certainly do accept.

That Thaksin was IMHO on the point of becoming an absolute dictator, when overthrown, has nothing to do with accepting what the Thai people vote for. One is an opinion, based on observing his actions as power gradually corrupted someone who had initially made a few good moves, although fewer than he is often given the credit for. The other is a matter of fact. Look at the candidate-vote & the party-vote. There is a clear difference between the two.

[John K]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

With all due respect rather than resort to accusations of flaming, it's more productive to attempt to deal with points made intelligently.Moderators may wish to correct me if I'm wrong but in my view its simply absurd to regard my post on Jonathan Head as a flame.

Younghusband, it is becoming increasingly apparent you don’t know what a flame is. If you don’t want to follow the path of ex-posters I suggest you take some time with a Moderator to find out. By flaming others you simply degrade yourself in everyone’s eyes. I have tried to explain it to you on more than one occasion as have others. I suspect a few classes at a school that provides social etiquette may be worth looking into. Good luck.

[John K]

POLITICAL WRANGLING

PPP unveils its partners

Samak presents heads of three minor parties in coalition, fears Sonthi pushing EC to disqualify many of its winners

People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej yesterday announced the formation of the coalition with 254 House seats and left the door open for the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties to the coalition to well over 300 seats at a later date.

"I hope the coalition alliance will stop the malicious attempts by an individual out?side of politics to cause an upset to the voting outcome and derail the chance for the People Power to form the next government," Samak said.

Samak said he had brought forward the press announcement from January 4 in a bid to foil what he termed as plans to undermine his party's victory.

He said the conference aimed to show the public they were ready to form a government - and to tell people there were moves afoot to block People Power taking office.

Samak claimed a minister who talked about an "invisible hand", was trying to stop the formation of the government. He was referring to PM's Office Minister Thiraphat Serirangsan, who gave an interview to one newspaper.

"The invisible hand wants to block us from becoming the government. It makes me see a 'man' clearly," Samak said.

He said a clear example was a policeman who works for the Election Commission. He was in charge of the investigations

into electoral fraud and familiar with the People Alliance for Democracy.

Samak said he regarded his coalition as still having 254 MP seats because the process to invalidate three winning PPP candidates had not been finalised yet.

"Even we have 251 MPs it is enough to form a gov?ernment," he said.

Flanked by his party secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee, Samak said he was certain of leading the next government. He made the remarks in the presence of his three coalition partners - Pradit Pattaraprasit of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Anongwant Thepsuthin of Matchima Thipataya and Uraiwan Thienthong of Pracharaj.

"I would not be sitting here if I was not sure I have successfully formed the coalition," Samak said, in reply to a direct question whether the alliance might falter. He said PPP would still welcome other parties to join the coalition. About 50 party supporters attended the press conference.

Three parties' representatives said they had agreed to join the coalition because the PPP had won the election.

"The majority of people voted for the PPP, so we have to respect the peoples' voice," Pradit said.

Anongwan said it was an honour for her party, Matchima Thipataya, to join the coalition.

And Uraiwan said her party, Pracharaj, was pleased to support the PPP in a coalition government. Party leader Snoh is presently in India.

A source from the PPP said they held the urgent press conference ahead of the issuing red and yellow cards by the EC, which is expected to happen on Thursday. They wanted to gain the upper hand over Banharn, because the Chart Thai leader was still undecided on whether to join the coalition.

"We want to tell him [banharn] that we can form the coalition government without the Chart Thai," the source said.

PPP spokesman Kuthep Saikrajang said the party wanted to tell people they feared an attempt to block PPP from forming a government by issuing many red cards.

He admitted the announcement was to give peo?ple confidence, even though some winning MPs in Buri Ram province had received red cards.

Kuthep also criticised Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban who said on Sunday he expected the Election Commission to disqualify dozens of PPP candidates, and give his party a chance to take office.

"It is up to the Election Commission whether to give red cards or not. This was an attempt to block us from forming government," he said.

The Nation

[John K]

Rough Translation of the above post:

The fact that PPP members broke the rules has nothing at all to do with getting red and yellow cards, it is all Sonthi’s fault.

It seems a feeble attempt at shifting the blame.

Edited January 1, 2008 by John K

[thaigene2]

My wife came up with an interesting scenario this afternoon.

Notice that there were only 4 parties at the PPP press conference, giving them a very slim majority. A few more red cards and that majority will disappear, hence Samak's rush to declare a coalition before it vanishes.

Despite the rhetoric, no one else has actually stated conclusively that they will join up with the PPP. If it should happen that enough red cards are issued that the PPP can not form a government, and the parties that sided with the PPP can not now have a change of heart and side with the Democrats to form a government, guess what happens?

Answer: Surayud gets to keep his post until a brand new election is scheduled, which could be anytime in the indefinite future. Anyone else think that the military may be playing both ends against the middle?

Not sure how much credence I give to it, but an intriguing analysis in any case.

Thoughts?

Actually I was thinking something similar to that. To me it seems the only reason to jump the gun and publicy announce he has a minority deal now is to thwart the press conference (tomorrow?) by the Chart Thai and Peua Pandin Party (spelling?) who may have decided to join the Democrats.

In other words, if he has a confirmable deal to form a majority of seats in the Legislature with a few smaller parties, then by virtue of leading the biggest party, his coalition should be given the "first chance" to form a Government. My understanding is that only "IF" he can't form a workable Government does the 2nd place party get to step forward.

We all know the establishment don't want PPP to form the Government. So he's now upped the ante. If they don't let him form the Government with a majority of seats thru the coalition partners, then that tells the rest of the world that the Establishment aren't willing to abide by Parliamentary traditions - which pretty much makes an election pointless if the elites can do that.

But I guess we'll need to wait and see.

[younghusband]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

With all due respect rather than resort to accusations of flaming, it's more productive to attempt to deal with points made intelligently.Moderators may wish to correct me if I'm wrong but in my view its simply absurd to regard my post on Jonathan Head as a flame.

Younghusband, it is becoming increasingly apparent you don’t know what a flame is. If you don’t want to follow the path of ex-posters I suggest you take some time with a Moderator to find out. By flaming others you simply degrade yourself in everyone’s eyes. I have tried to explain it to you on more than one occasion as have others. I suspect a few classes at a school that provides social etiquette may be worth looking into. Good luck.

Your accusation is ridiculous as has already pointed out but take it up with the mods if you like.Meanwhile my comments on Jonathan Head go unanswered.

[thaigene2]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

I always saw this as a Thai choice and will accept whatever outcome as long as it was by the rules, after all it is their country. If the PPP won without vote buying and involving the banned 111 I would not have anything to say. Seeing is that appears not to be the case, the wear and tear on my keyboard will continue.

Sure you would. You only see what you want to see. "The Thaksin Crook" - What you fail to open your eyes to is that many Thais who voted for Thaksin thought exactly the same thing but voted for him anyway - and for his reincarnation Samak - who must be worse than Thaksin! Why? Because for the first time since the communists were chased away into the jungles, the masses had been given a voice by a party(ies) that was listened to and acted upon.

The Democrats were in power for years - they're the oldest party - and they did sweet F.A. for 90% of the population.

Once bitten twice shy..and the ordinary, poor Thai, who has been given a taste of real democracy is not about to let that go. This nonesense about voting for anyone who will give them a bottle of whiskey is insulting. The real "whining" of "not fair" seems to be coming from the elites who can't accept defeat by the 'unwashed masses'.

[younghusband]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

I always saw this as a Thai choice and will accept whatever outcome as long as it was by the rules, after all it is their country. If the PPP won without vote buying and involving the banned 111 I would not have anything to say. Seeing is that appears not to be the case, the wear and tear on my keyboard will continue.

Sure you would. You only see what you want to see. "The Thaksin Crook" - What you fail to open your eyes to is that many Thais who voted for Thaksin thought exactly the same thing but voted for him anyway - and for his reincarnation Samak - who must be worse than Thaksin! Why? Because for the first time since the communists were chased away into the jungles, the masses had been given a voice by a party(ies) that was listened to and acted upon.

The Democrats were in power for years - they're the oldest party - and they did sweet F.A. for 90% of the population.

Once bitten twice shy..and the ordinary, poor Thai, who has been given a taste of real democracy is not about to let that go. This nonesense about voting for anyone who will give them a bottle of whiskey is insulting. The real "whining" of "not fair" seems to be coming from the elites who can't accept defeat by the 'unwashed masses'.

Thaigene

You are of course absolutely correct.The only comment I would add perhaps is that it's significant all the other parties including the Democrats have Thaksin inspired "populist" measures in their manifestos.I think thats an implicit recognition that the Thai majority can no longer be ignored and patronised.

[thaigene2]

Actually you are in error on that assumption. The Constitutional Tribunal is not controlled by the military, it never was with this coup. [...]

Oh, PLEASE, you cannot really believe that in a patronistic society where everyone grovels to the Pooyai - especially when they've actually taken over the country by force of arms, that this is really the case, can you? Beggars belief. Look how fast they handed a prison term (under appeal of course - as the rich never go to jail here) to Sondhi for libeling Thaksin - interesting timing when it appeared that PPP was sure to form a government. How fast the winds change direction..and may change back again, we'll see.

In short all the junta did was keep Thaksin from being too powerful to stop. The last order Thaksin gave before he left was to move his class 10 buddies (back) into posts that were key to controlling the military.

A quick history lesson; Sonthi moved class 10 out of key positions about 4 or 5 months before the regular shuffle. In reply when questioned, Thaksin came out and said it is up to the military where they move people. But Thaksin decided to renege on that and move them anyway where he wanted them. That move was to be done around September 20, 2006 or so. At that point nothing short of assassination could stop Thaksin as every element of Thailand would have been under his control except the Monarchy. That is the definition of a dictatorship and not the division of power as in a democracy.

Sure, and Queen Elizabeth controls the British Army does she? How about Australia or Canada? It's the Government, via the Ministers of Defence, who of course report to Cabinet and ulitmately the Prime Minister. So spare me this 'dictator' stuff - are you suggesting the military should be free of political control of the elected officials! Now THAT's DICTATORSHIP, perhaps you haven't heard of Burma? Man, you must have been one of those guys at the front of the stage in Lumpini Park.

[John K]

By the way, what I find funny here is everyone crying for democracy and calling Thaksin a dictator is not able to accept what the Thai people have voted for - Thaksin and his PPP. What kind of democrats are you guys if you can't even accept what the people have chosen?

I always saw this as a Thai choice and will accept whatever outcome as long as it was by the rules, after all it is their country. If the PPP won without vote buying and involving the banned 111 I would not have anything to say. Seeing is that appears not to be the case, the wear and tear on my keyboard will continue.

Sure you would. You only see what you want to see. "The Thaksin Crook" - What you fail to open your eyes to is that many Thais who voted for Thaksin thought exactly the same thing but voted for him anyway - and for his reincarnation Samak - who must be worse than Thaksin! Why? Because for the first time since the communists were chased away into the jungles, the masses had been given a voice by a party(ies) that was listened to and acted upon.

The Democrats were in power for years - they're the oldest party - and they did sweet F.A. for 90% of the population.

Once bitten twice shy..and the ordinary, poor Thai, who has been given a taste of real democracy is not about to let that go. This nonesense about voting for anyone who will give them a bottle of whiskey is insulting. The real "whining" of "not fair" seems to be coming from the elites who can't accept defeat by the 'unwashed masses'.

What I am saying is the results are tainted. Look at the votes for the constitution just a few months ago. Talk about the famous red and blue map in the USA when presidents are elected, where the Thaksin group was buying votes is about the only place that rejected the constitution. Considering the educational attainment of Thais in that area, I can’t visualize more than a few that understood the document. To truly understand it I feel at least a first year university student may get a good feel for it.

Why is it near or at the top of the agenda for the PPP to trash the new constitution?

I simply feel the results would be very different if there was no vote buying and that is why I am uncomfortable with it as it in some way will affect me down the road.

[Ricardo]

Those Dems don't take these election losses easily, do they?

What losses are those ? Surely they increased their number of seats, and their share of the vote, this election ? And didn't Abhsit say, early on, that he would stand aside and let the PPP, as the largest single-party, have first crack at forming a coalition ? Seemed a reasoned point-of-view, don't you think ?

[thaigene2]

Those Dems don't take these election losses easily, do they?

What losses are those ? Surely they increased their number of seats, and their share of the vote, this election ? And didn't Abhsit say, early on, that he would stand aside and let the PPP, as the largest single-party, have first crack at forming a coalition ? Seemed a reasoned point-of-view, don't you think ?

Well, I don't really know. What do you think? What does Abhist think? Maybe he knows something we don't? He was a little too smug when he made that comment. BTW, he made that comment prior to the election too - again a little too quick and a little too smug (I watched him say this in English).

I tell you what I do think in somewhat close relation to that. I think he is being guided by patrons..and has been told "don't worry, we'll fix this." Who exactly are the patrons? I don't know... but you could probably identify a pretty reliable short-list.

I still believe there's no way the elites and the military are going to let a Thaksin-reincarnation happen here. They didn't stage a coup to get rid of just Thaksin - but also to get rid of his populist 'rally-the-masses' party. A small corrupted wealthy elite, that rely on the patronage system to buy their Mercedes Benz', send their kids abroad to school, and secure contracts that they skim 10-20% from, simply cannot survive under that type of populist system - you can bet your last Baht they will protect their positions at all costs.

[Old Man River]

I still believe there's no way the elites and the military are going to let a Thaksin-reincarnation happen here. They didn't stage a coup to get rid of just Thaksin - but also to get rid of his populist 'rally-the-masses' party. you can bet your last Baht they will protect their positions at all costs.

This has been my thought all along, but we are getting close to crunch time. Perhaps they will step back and let this government fail economically (a lot of issues that need to be addressed) and then waltz in as the white nights.

[chownah]

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

With all due respect rather than resort to accusations of flaming, it's more productive to attempt to deal with points made intelligently.Moderators may wish to correct me if I'm wrong but in my view its simply absurd to regard my post on Jonathan Head as a flame.

Younghusband, it is becoming increasingly apparent you don’t know what a flame is. If you don’t want to follow the path of ex-posters I suggest you take some time with a Moderator to find out. By flaming others you simply degrade yourself in everyone’s eyes. I have tried to explain it to you on more than one occasion as have others. I suspect a few classes at a school that provides social etiquette may be worth looking into. Good luck.

Your accusation is ridiculous as has already pointed out but take it up with the mods if you like.......................

I agree.

[John K]

Actually you are in error on that assumption. The Constitutional Tribunal is not controlled by the military, it never was with this coup. [...]

Oh, PLEASE, you cannot really believe that in a patronistic society where everyone grovels to the Pooyai - especially when they've actually taken over the country by force of arms, that this is really the case, can you? Beggars belief. Look how fast they handed a prison term (under appeal of course - as the rich never go to jail here) to Sondhi for libeling Thaksin - interesting timing when it appeared that PPP was sure to form a government. How fast the winds change direction..and may change back again, we'll see.

In short all the junta did was keep Thaksin from being too powerful to stop. The last order Thaksin gave before he left was to move his class 10 buddies (back) into posts that were key to controlling the military.

A quick history lesson; Sonthi moved class 10 out of key positions about 4 or 5 months before the regular shuffle. In reply when questioned, Thaksin came out and said it is up to the military where they move people. But Thaksin decided to renege on that and move them anyway where he wanted them. That move was to be done around September 20, 2006 or so. At that point nothing short of assassination could stop Thaksin as every element of Thailand would have been under his control except the Monarchy. That is the definition of a dictatorship and not the division of power as in a democracy.

Sure, and Queen Elizabeth controls the British Army does she? How about Australia or Canada? It's the Government, via the Ministers of Defence, who of course report to Cabinet and ulitmately the Prime Minister. So spare me this 'dictator' stuff - are you suggesting the military should be free of political control of the elected officials! Now THAT's DICTATORSHIP, perhaps you haven't heard of Burma? Man, you must have been one of those guys at the front of the stage in Lumpini Park.

Yes the prison term was just as fast for Samak.

Let me clarify the army statement. Class 10 is loyal to Thaksin from the accounts I hear and read about. That means they would disobey orders from the generals and listen to Thaksin. If it became truly necessary to remove Thaksin by force, and that means a decision from the people via vote or other respected sources, Thaksin could effectively stop it. The military is to be loyal to the King and not Thaksin hence the name Royal Thai Army, and Thaksin has absolutely no business in hindering that loyalty.

Your references follow the chain of command. I think you need to think of it as a house with termites.

[thaigene2]

Actually you are in error on that assumption. The Constitutional Tribunal is not controlled by the military, it never was with this coup. [...]

Oh, PLEASE, you cannot really believe that in a patronistic society where everyone grovels to the Pooyai - especially when they've actually taken over the country by force of arms, that this is really the case, can you? Beggars belief. Look how fast they handed a prison term (under appeal of course - as the rich never go to jail here) to Sondhi for libeling Thaksin - interesting timing when it appeared that PPP was sure to form a government. How fast the winds change direction..and may change back again, we'll see.

In short all the junta did was keep Thaksin from being too powerful to stop. The last order Thaksin gave before he left was to move his class 10 buddies (back) into posts that were key to controlling the military.

A quick history lesson; Sonthi moved class 10 out of key positions about 4 or 5 months before the regular shuffle. In reply when questioned, Thaksin came out and said it is up to the military where they move people. But Thaksin decided to renege on that and move them anyway where he wanted them. That move was to be done around September 20, 2006 or so. At that point nothing short of assassination could stop Thaksin as every element of Thailand would have been under his control except the Monarchy. That is the definition of a dictatorship and not the division of power as in a democracy.

Sure, and Queen Elizabeth controls the British Army does she? How about Australia or Canada? It's the Government, via the Ministers of Defence, who of course report to Cabinet and ulitmately the Prime Minister. So spare me this 'dictator' stuff - are you suggesting the military should be free of political control of the elected officials! Now THAT's DICTATORSHIP, perhaps you haven't heard of Burma? Man, you must have been one of those guys at the front of the stage in Lumpini Park.

Yes the prison term was just as fast for Samak.

Let me clarify the army statement. Class 10 is loyal to Thaksin from the accounts I hear and read about. That means they would disobey orders from the generals and listen to Thaksin. If it became truly necessary to remove Thaksin by force, and that means a decision from the people via vote or other respected sources, Thaksin could effectively stop it. The military is to be loyal to the King and not Thaksin hence the name Royal Thai Army, and Thaksin has absolutely no business in hindering that loyalty.

Your references follow the chain of command. I think you need to think of it as a house with termites.

John K

The Ballot box is the ONLY way to remove a democratically elected Government from office. When the rich people get to reject the results of an election, direct the army to force an elected leader from office, throw red cards at the guys they don't like so they can re-shuffle the deck, then the country is not a democracy. It's a semi-feudal oligarchy - and the longer this drags on, the more the rest of the world can see exactly that - and so can the "stupid" majority, who are starting to see things more clearly than ever before. The King is (as always) exactly right when he says the country is heading for disaster if these division aren't reconciled. Let's hope the elites understand that means THEY TOO must take part in the reconciliation, as it is not a one-way street where the masses should just quietly go away so the establishment can return to the status quo of patronage - that would indeed be a disaster which in other countries has turned out very nasty. Look at Kenya.

[hammered]

Developments in the past 24 hours certainly dont auger well for a winding down of tensions in the country.

And maybe as a new years resolution we on this board could agree to set an example of tolerating dissent by agreeing to have rationale debates rather than throw accusations around that will inevitably lead to more posters with interesting and diverse views being banned.

Peace and a Happy New Year to all.

[thaigene2]

I still believe there's no way the elites and the military are going to let a Thaksin-reincarnation happen here. They didn't stage a coup to get rid of just Thaksin - but also to get rid of his populist 'rally-the-masses' party. you can bet your last Baht they will protect their positions at all costs.

This has been my thought all along, but we are getting close to crunch time. Perhaps they will step back and let this government fail economically (a lot of issues that need to be addressed) and then waltz in as the white nights.

Sure hope they step back. I'll bet there is a furious debate going on within those circles right now about whether to have their way by force or thinly-veiled tampering with red-cards, etc, - or to step back as you say. Who knows, a minority government might produce some reasonably good middle-of-the-road legislation for both the masses and the country in general - but it won't be good for the old-family-money. So we'll see..

The thing I find intersting about the "farang"-anti-thaksin camp is that it ought to be pretty clear by now that the old-establishment that ousted Thaksin (e.g. anti-TRT) are also much more anti-foreigner - look what they tried to do with the FBA? The NLA had to bury the legislation or Thailand would have shut its doors to foreign investment for years! Thai Rak Thai wouldn't have done that..(for the record, I don't like Thakisn either - but the party's ideals were fine, they delivered on promises, and that's why people voted for him by the millions).

[mbkudu]

The thing I find intersting about the "farang"-anti-thaksin camp is that it ought to be pretty clear by now that the old-establishment that ousted Thaksin (e.g. anti-TRT) are also much more anti-foreigner - look what they tried to do with the FBA? The NLA had to bury the legislation or Thailand would have shut its doors to foreign investment for years! Thai Rak Thai wouldn't have done that..(for the record, I don't like Thakisn either - but the party's ideals were fine, they delivered on promises, and that's why people voted for him by the millions).

Someone talking sense.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

The Ballot box is the ONLY way to remove a democratically elected Government from office.

In most democratic countries with a well developed system of checks and balances the rule of law also removes elected governments and officials. US president Richard Nixon is an excellent example of that process. For a time after Nixon the US was governed by an unelected president (Gerald Ford) and vice president (Nelson Rockefeller). There is another term "tyrany of the majority" that is used when discussing the lack of balance in a democratic system without adequate checks and balances. A brief discussion of that term can be found Below. James Madison the forth US President and one of the authors of the Federalist papers said, ""A pure democracy can admit no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will be felt by a majority, and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party. Hence it is, that democracies have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have, in general, been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths." The Federalist Papers were a series of essays urging the ratification of the US constitution. They date to the founding of the United States.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federalist_No._10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority

Edited January 1, 2008 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[chuang]

The PPP have won despite the army, EC etc etc using under-hand tactics, just imagine how many more seats the PPP would have won if it was a fair election. The people of Thailand have spoken so let it be, the Thailand is made up of many provinces not only middle-class Bangkok....

****post edited for inappropriate references--sbk***

[CNXagent]

The PPP have won despite the army, EC etc etc using under-hand tactics, just imagine how many more seats the PPP would have won if it was a fair election. The people of Thailand have spoken so let it be, the Thailand is made up of many provinces not only middle-class Bangkok....

I agree that 'just imagine how many more seats the PPP would have won' Thank Goddness ! and luckily the EC has been trying to do their best to crack down on those votes buying spree!

If not, we can see another episode of Toxin coming straight into the picture.

[Ricardo]

Whatever the juntophiles (not admittedly a group known for their intellectual honesty) say, the evidence is absolutely undeniable.

YoungHusband, when you can make a good case based on facts, which you regularly do, why do you feel it necessary to flame like this ? I don't think it helps you. I myself feel that you too often rely upon 'informed opinion' to support your case, but wouldn't get picky about it, as I respect your basic integrity.

Let's rather keep it polite & respectful. The group you refer to as 'juntophiles', which you might (I don't know) include me in (erroneously - in my opinion), are more likely to change their views, in response to your posts, if you don't call them intellectually dishonest. You can do better than this.

Younghusband why must you continually flame everyone? Are you really having that hard a time getting up to their level of posting without flaiming?

And maybe as a new years resolution we on this board could agree to set an example of tolerating dissent by agreeing to have rationale debates rather than throw accusations around that will inevitably lead to more posters with interesting and diverse views being banned.

Peace and a Happy New Year to all.

Second the Motion.