The Panic Starts ? Invest In Gold !

[lannarebirth]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected.

besides today's 75bps:

UBS EXPECTING 50BP NEW WEEKS MEETING, AND JPM EXPECTING ANOTHER 50BP EASE AT THE JAN 30TH FOMC MEETING AND AN ADDITIONAL 25BP IN MARCH TO TAKE THE TERMINAL RATE TO 2.75%

This whole banking mess just reeks of a Japan outcome to me. Probably going to be a lot of incestuous govt/finacial sector entanglements thatmay take years to unwind. I know evryone is looking for inflation to kick in here in a big way. Nobody think deflation might occur first?

[LivinLOS]

I have hummed and haa'd about the deflation inflation issue..

But then I realize the man they put in charge of the FED and realize they will do anything to avoid deflation.. Free money (like they are showing) will mean massive (possibly even hyper ??) inflation.. Imagine that scenario !!

[GuestHouse]

Let's do some sums..

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week.. Liquidated the lot either in market yesterday or forward priced UT's until last night.. Probably 11 or 12% off its peak in a week but up over 120% over the couple of years. I dont normally trade at all (just a 5% of assets toy fund for trading and picks), and I normally dont let the swings bother me as I usually feel its just shaking out the weak hands but am not feeling good about equity at all and this is looking more and more like carnage. I feel the unhedged miners will take a beating for a few more sessions and would risk any small upside to protect against harder downside risk. If this bloodbath settles within weeks I will be back into them.

Then again I sleep peacefully with mostly gold and silver bullion thats in the rest of the portfolio.. Better than currency for my own peace of mind

On the basis of 'a few hundred K' is obviously not 100K, probably not a couple of hundred K, so let's settle for 300K then the numbers come out like this:

If 12% of the peak value is 300K then the peak value is 2.5million.

And if 2.5 Million is 5% of Assets, then total assets = $50,000,000.

Yeh Right!

[yorkman]

I just bought Northern Rock shares last week

Sold today at 40% profiit.

It is the silly who cannot read between the lines

[lannarebirth]

I just bought Northern Rock shares last week

Sold today at 40% profiit.

It is the silly who cannot read between the lines

I don't recall seeing that post.

[siamamerican]

Let's do some sums..

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week.. Liquidated the lot either in market yesterday or forward priced UT's until last night.. Probably 11 or 12% off its peak in a week but up over 120% over the couple of years. I dont normally trade at all (just a 5% of assets toy fund for trading and picks), and I normally dont let the swings bother me as I usually feel its just shaking out the weak hands but am not feeling good about equity at all and this is looking more and more like carnage. I feel the unhedged miners will take a beating for a few more sessions and would risk any small upside to protect against harder downside risk. If this bloodbath settles within weeks I will be back into them.

Then again I sleep peacefully with mostly gold and silver bullion thats in the rest of the portfolio.. Better than currency for my own peace of mind

On the basis of 'a few hundred K' is obviously not 100K, probably not a couple of hundred K, so let's settle for 300K then the numbers come out like this:

If 12% of the peak value is 300K then the peak value is 2.5million.

And if 2.5 Million is 5% of Assets, then total assets = $50,000,000.

Yeh Right!

Without knowing who made that quote, I guessed LivinLos was the culptrit. I just looked through past posts and I was right. If numbers don't add up, he just changes the scenario to validate his statements.

[sonicdragon]

I just bought Northern Rock shares last week

Sold today at 40% profiit.

It is the silly who cannot read between the lines

I don't recall seeing that post.

Hindsight trading

[Naam]

the good news is that the aliens who abducted Jim Sinclair released him again. he nearly drove them mad with his bla-bla

The markets in the US haven't opened yet but Sinclair's call of a 1000 point drop in the DOW looks like a reasonable at this point in time even though he called it one trading day early. Gold is down versus Friday, so I suppose one could argue that he was only half right. So do we still believe that Sinclair was abducted by aliens? This call, coupled with his call of the top in gold in 1980, makes me think that he mgiht be considerable richer than me and than the average Thai Visa enthusiast.

assuming i was right in a specific case NEARLY THREE DECADES ago and assuming i am making a statement today containing two dozen "prophecies' out of which two are obvious to happen tomorrow or day after tomorrow, does that make me a guru who is "half right"?

can we agree that Sinclair was on "DOW" 12.81% right and 87.19% wrong?

[Naam]

Let's do some sums..

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week.. Liquidated the lot either in market yesterday or forward priced UT's until last night.. Probably 11 or 12% off its peak in a week but up over 120% over the couple of years. I dont normally trade at all (just a 5% of assets toy fund for trading and picks), and I normally dont let the swings bother me as I usually feel its just shaking out the weak hands but am not feeling good about equity at all and this is looking more and more like carnage. I feel the unhedged miners will take a beating for a few more sessions and would risk any small upside to protect against harder downside risk. If this bloodbath settles within weeks I will be back into them.

Then again I sleep peacefully with mostly gold and silver bullion thats in the rest of the portfolio.. Better than currency for my own peace of mind

On the basis of 'a few hundred K' is obviously not 100K, probably not a couple of hundred K, so let's settle for 300K then the numbers come out like this:

If 12% of the peak value is 300K then the peak value is 2.5million.

And if 2.5 Million is 5% of Assets, then total assets = $50,000,000.

Yeh Right!

is it a crime if LivinLos has total assets of $50mm?

[LivinLOS]

Let's do some sums..

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week.. Liquidated the lot either in market yesterday or forward priced UT's until last night.. Probably 11 or 12% off its peak in a week but up over 120% over the couple of years. I dont normally trade at all (just a 5% of assets toy fund for trading and picks), and I normally dont let the swings bother me as I usually feel its just shaking out the weak hands but am not feeling good about equity at all and this is looking more and more like carnage. I feel the unhedged miners will take a beating for a few more sessions and would risk any small upside to protect against harder downside risk. If this bloodbath settles within weeks I will be back into them.

Then again I sleep peacefully with mostly gold and silver bullion thats in the rest of the portfolio.. Better than currency for my own peace of mind

On the basis of 'a few hundred K' is obviously not 100K, probably not a couple of hundred K, so let's settle for 300K then the numbers come out like this:

If 12% of the peak value is 300K then the peak value is 2.5million.

And if 2.5 Million is 5% of Assets, then total assets = $50,000,000.

Yeh Right!

Few hundred k being between 2 and 3.. I thought it was nearer 300 but actually I may be closer to 2 than 3 luckily having looked at all my numbers yesterday, unit trusts are forward priced so exact on the day numbers are not there.. Thats sold from 11 or 12% off its peak (look at a HUI chart to confirm)..

What I explained badly was trying to say is I normally dont trade my accounts.. I am a trend investor, I see how I think the future will shake out and ride that segment, hence I had a chunk in gold mining equity Unit Trusts (as well as more in bullion silver gold) but I do 'also' have an equity trading account with with a couple hundred K in it for if and when I want a punt or have a pick I want to play. That my toy trade account. I certainly dont have 50 mil, I dont even have a 10th of that (yet).

Also I can see how my post my come across as brass or boastful, they are not intended that way, but on an (almost) anon board see no great need for secrecy and also like to state my guesses so they are on record.. I am the first to concede I get some wrong, but the last couple years I got far more right than wrong.

[LivinLOS]

Well the FED worked the pumps (at first that didnt work which was looking scary) and the PPT got in there and hovered up the selling.. They got a nice turnaround out of that. I am wondering if it will hold beyond a week or so or how dead the cat is thats bouncing. I certainly smelled some fear in the FED moves so hard like that.

Of course it does beg the question is the fed keeping up main street or wall street ?? I thought stock manipulation was not the FED's job ?? Then again I have been called nieve before .. Also as clear as they can telegraph it is the fact the FED has no inflation concerns at all.. 75 already.. Possibly as much as 50 more.. The greenspan put is alive and well and the problem is not to be fixed only delayed and increased.. Gold still shines brightly to me.

[Naam]

Well the FED worked the pumps (at first that didnt work which was looking scary) and the PPT got in there and hovered up the selling.. They got a nice turnaround out of that. I am wondering if it will hold beyond a week or so or how dead the cat is thats bouncing. I certainly smelled some fear in the FED moves so hard like that.

Of course it does beg the question is the fed keeping up main street or wall street ?? I thought stock manipulation was not the FED's job ?? Then again I have been called nieve before .. Also as clear as they can telegraph it is the fact the FED has no inflation concerns at all.. 75 already.. Possibly as much as 50 more.. The greenspan put is alive and well and the problem is not to be fixed only delayed and increased.. Gold still shines brightly to me.

it's not naiveté LivinLos, i'ts called "obfuscation"

[SoCal]

i'ts called "obfuscation"

How about that Naam. Not only working on your portfolio, but also your vocabulary.

[GuestHouse]

Without making any kind of an attack on any individuals (and certainly not by implication of my las post on LiveinThai). I think it is a good idea to take claims made on the internet with a pinch of soap - claims made on this partuicular corner of the internet should be taken with a double dose.

I try never to forget that half the lies I read around here aren't even true.

[Gary A]

My 401K fund is peanuts compared to a lot of the posters assets. I can tell you that I have lost a lot of peanuts in the past year. I don't know who to blame so I blame myself for my thirty five percent loss.

I don't expect to draw on that fund but I do take the dividends. My children will NOT get as much inheritance as I thought they would. Then again, I'm NOT dead yet so who knows what will happen between now and then.

[LivinLOS]

i'ts called "obfuscation"

How about that Naam. Not only working on your portfolio, but also your vocabulary.

Reckon hes got that word of the day toilet paper ??

[Naam]

I try never to forget that half the lies I read around here aren't even true.

a good one!

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Dr. Namm

My hat is off to you. Your recent predictions have been spot on for the most part. You are obviously the man to listen to. Keep it up. I'm basicly to lazy to keep track of the markets so my $ is in term deposit in three currency and a pension in a forth, average a bit over 8% and don't loose any sleep over what is going on.

[Naam]

the good news is that the aliens who abducted Jim Sinclair released him again. he nearly drove them mad with his bla-bla

The markets in the US haven't opened yet but Sinclair's call of a 1000 point drop in the DOW looks like a reasonable at this point in time even though he called it one trading day early. Gold is down versus Friday, so I suppose one could argue that he was only half right. So do we still believe that Sinclair was abducted by aliens? This call, coupled with his call of the top in gold in 1980, makes me think that he mgiht be considerable richer than me and than the average Thai Visa enthusiast.

assuming i was right in a specific case NEARLY THREE DECADES ago and assuming i am making a statement today containing two dozen "prophecies' out of which two are obvious to happen tomorrow or day after tomorrow, does that make me a guru who is "half right"?

can we agree that Sinclair was on "DOW" 12.81% right and 87.19% wrong?

as of today i still don't see Sinclair's forecasted 1000 point drop in the DOW. let's wait patiently, sooner or later Sinclair will be right

[Naam]

I'm basicly to lazy to keep track of the markets so my $ is in term deposit in three currency and a pension in a forth, average a bit over 8% and don't loose any sleep over what is going on.

right you are BEENTHEREDONETHAT! cash is the best for us old farts. unfortunately i am still to greedy to hold 100% cash. in my case it will take another 3-4 years to reach this target

[VegasVic]

I have hummed and haa'd about the deflation inflation issue..

But then I realize the man they put in charge of the FED and realize they will do anything to avoid deflation.. Free money (like they are showing) will mean massive (possibly even hyper ??) inflation.. Imagine that scenario !!

Lets see now, if I listened to the posters here on thai visa I would have to believe that the U.S. is heading for hyper inflation, that gold is going to $1500-$2000/ounce, that now is a great time to short the dollar and the U.S. equity markets as well, that the U.S. is already in a recession and that the brittish pound will be worth $2.40 by Christmass 2007 (oops I guess that one was already proven to be a bit off ). In all sincerity I really have to thank so many of you for being the best contrarian indicator available anywhere!

[LivinLOS]

I wouldnt say hyper is likely.. Like I wouldnt say a depression is likely or that a banking collapse is likely..

What I am saying is that the chance of such an exent is rising from very lopw probabilities to higher probabilities.. Thos changes are enough to profit from, the actual event doesnt need to happen just have to have the broad strokes right.

Many events out there are deflationary.. Left to thier own devices I think thats what would happen.. However I think helicopter Ben was specifically chosen to do the job he promised he would.. They will hit those digital printing presses flat out to stave off deflation.

As to the GBP.. Dont much like that either.. EUR and the commodity currencies are where I would hold what little fiat I have.. Paying a lot of attention to the possibility of a carry trade unwind in the high yielders. As I dont like much about the fiats I have been banging the drum about hard currency.. Hard to argue with the gold calls.

[Edonista]

attention moderators! aren't swear and utterly obscene words like "income tax" against forum rules?

You should rename yourself Quark

(check DS9 7th season episode 574 conversation with Liquidator Brunt, shame on you if you have not the DVD !)

[Naam]

something for the "goldbugs" to brood over:

[churchill]

something for the "goldbugs" to brood over:

Yes I think too far too fast -and can see a correction coming - am thinking of switching some of my funds in the next days . Any recommendations , with markets as they are ? I was thinking Eastern Europe .

[jumnien]

With all the little lemmings scurrying for gold.....

[Naam]

something for the "goldbugs" to brood over:

Yes I think too far too fast -and can see a correction coming - am thinking of switching some of my funds in the next days . Any recommendations , with markets as they are ? I was thinking Eastern Europe .

cash!

[LivinLOS]

Actually been waiting on the sidelines for a retest of the 850 - 870 levels.. Usually get some pullbacks but it seems slow days theres buyers to soak up dips.

Sitting 50% cash (money market fund) for the last week or two..

[churchill]

something for the "goldbugs" to brood over:

Yes I think too far too fast -and can see a correction coming - am thinking of switching some of my funds in the next days . Any recommendations , with markets as they are ? I was thinking Eastern Europe .

cash!

My pension invested in Gold and General Fund and I don't think I can hold cash so will wait for the markets to settle a bit or go down further before I re-invest . Looking at Baring's Eastern European Fund , which has had an incredible run over the last 5 years , with further potential imho , or Aberdeen emerging markets which has also done very well but will probably retain 50% in gold as I think it still has further to run ( long term ) .

[beginner]

something for the "goldbugs" to brood over:

Yes I think too far too fast -and can see a correction coming - am thinking of switching some of my funds in the next days . Any recommendations , with markets as they are ? I was thinking Eastern Europe .

cash!

OK Cash is King.

But which cash? NZD AUD CHF Euro GBP JPY (0%) HKD ????

Where?

Its not so easy as just CASH.