Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008

[VegasVic]

Nice to see some sanity returning

Just a couple of points on your post, Vic. While inventory declined last month, it is still at at almost 10 months worth of sales, at current sales levels. Until the pace of sales picks up, declining inventory won't help much, though it's a step in the right direction. Also, inventory numbers from the Census Bureau need to be considered carefully because they do *not* include changes due to cancellations (which are at record levels), nor the market for many condos (which has been an important part of new builds in the recent run up).

As for Euro-land, I'd like to see the numbers referred to by your friend regarding Germany. To my mind the German economy is in very good shape (relatively) : home prices are not stretched compared to personal incomes (and home prices have not grown at a high rate), corporate and personal debt are at relatively low levels, business confidence remains high, and exports (even to the US) remain strong. I think the point about Russia is bogus because German exports to Russia account for less than 5% of total exports - the US is Germany's biggest non-EU export partner (less than 10%). China is a much bigger export partner than Russia.

Sonic, As you so astutely pointed out "it is still almost 10 months worth of slaes at current sales levels" , of course that assumes that sales will never pick up from the current anemic levels, this obviously will not be the case. To further clarify the situation there are areas that have further to come down like Florida (particularly Miami area condos) and many parts of California and Phoenix AZ, and the duration of the problem in those areas will indeed last longer. These areas are skewing the national numbers and will do so for the remaineder of the year and into next year. There are areas of the midwest and northwest that are actually seeing appreciation and strong sales, but outsiders fail to see this because they are bombarded by all the negative press about the hardhit areas (areas most of which had a doubling of values during the boom 2003-2006). As for Euro-land, my friend at GS was clear that he thought that by the end of the year or early next year there would be some very substantial real estate problems in Europe, his particular view on Germany however was more along the lines of decreasing exports (to U.S., Russia, and other EU countries as their econmies slow) leading to more job losses and potential problems with trade unions, if I mischaracterized this in my original post as a "German real estate crisis" I certainly apologize, I will have to go back and read that post again. As we both know, Germany has a much smaller percentage of home ownership than the U.S. and did not see a doubling of real estate values in 2003-2006 like many areas like the U.S. so it is unlikely that Germany itself would likely have a severe real estate crisis. As far as export percentages go, I will gladly take your word that Russia accounts for only 5% of German exports, but when you tie that to a reduction of exports to the U.S. and eventually to other EU countries, that leaves China to save German exports While I feel that Germany has been and will continue to be the economic superpower of the EU, I certainly would not want to depend on exports to China over the next 12-18 months to save the German export sector.

[siamamerican]

Morgan Stanley:

Why Is the EUR So Strong: A New Hypothesis

hypothesis.

In recent years, US real money investors have aggressively

diversified out of USD assets. Most of the rest of the world

have also been reducing their financial ‘home bias’ by

diversifying out of their own domestic asset markets. However,

European investment funds (IFs) have diversified more within

the Eurozone than outside the Eurozone, i.e., they diversified

out of their own countries but into other EMU member

countries, and not out of the Eurozone. The EUR, therefore,

should be strong if everyone else in the world is diversifying

while the Europeans are not.

...

I also believe EUR/USD at 1.60 cannot be justified. This can be said about numerous other currencies as well that don’t have the same capital inflow/outflow dynamics as the EUR. The main reason I believe is the negative attitude counties have on US prospects in short-term.

The war will end (hopefully sooner than later ) and the subprime crisis will be forgotten. Both won’t happen in the next year, but I expect the markets will start to see the light at the end of the tunnel by the end of 2008 and the dollar will rebound.

[VegasVic]

Sonic, we actually agree on these issues more than you realize I think the only major disagreement we might have would be the scope and duration of the problem. Sensationalistic articles and bad news always sells more newspapers, or I guess as the modern world turns gets more internet subscribers. Home inventories in the U.S. actually shrank last month and while a month does not make a trend the situation is looking a little better for home sellers. You will have no problem getting me to agree that there are a few markets out there, Florida in particular that may indeed take 2-3 years to recover and while I might put a few areas of California and Phoenix AZ in that same recovery scenario (perhaps a little faster than Florida), most markets in the U.S. were much less affected and will recover much faster. Las Vegas nearly saw a doubling of real estate values from early 2004 -mid 2006 (and has backed off about 20%), but you need to realize that Las Vegas was a very undervalued market before this all occured and Las Vegas is also a very unique market for three reasons (1) Las Vegas has been the fastest growing city in the U.S. for the last 20 years (2) Las Vegas also attracts many foriegn buyers, especially since the dollar has weakened so much (3) Las Vegas has a very low unemployment rate and very good wages, and currently has an enormous ammount of commercial construction going on and more major projects planned to start later this year and next (I touched on this in one of my past posts but I cannot remember the forum). As far as the resets, they are and will continue to be a problem, but with Sec. Paulson and Rep.Barney Frank (an odd couple if I ever saw one) agreeing on ways to mitigate some of this and a Democratic congress clamoring for a major bailout for unscupulous lenders and irresponsible home buyers, I'm certain that this will all turn out much better and recover faster than the doomsday news articles make out. As far as the Euro-land situation is concerned, that was something relayed to me from a highly placed individual at Goldman Sachs who has been a friend for many years. His view seemed to be that many countries in Europe will be having a real estate crisis of their own by the end of this year or early next year, and I don't think he was refering to GB, Ireland or Spain, as those countries are already experiencing problems. I recall discussing Germany in particular with him and when I mentioned how the strong Euro-weak dollar must be killing German exports, he said that while exports to the U.S. were dropping and would likely continue to do so, that Germany has a very strong export market to Russia, but if Russian demand were to drop (I assumed that he thought it would) that unemployment in Germany could rise quite quickly and then he mentioned something about potential labor unrest (I guess unions?). Anyway, the European arena is not my forte and Germany and the rest of Europe could very well have a robust economy for years to come, I will leave it to the Europeans on this board to hash all that out as I have no dog in that fight On a side note, although lao po and I have fought back and forth on many TV forums over the past year, I am saddened to see him go through such a public breakdown as seems to be occuring currently, and I hope his situation improves very soon

Good post. I think the housing market will go down anaother 5-10%. Houses are still overpriced compared to personal income and the market usually moves back to historical norms. Please use a few paragraphs in future posts. I have a short attention span and was a little dizzy by the end.

I read some older Lao Po posts and they were considerably more sane. Probably just having a couple bad days.

Siamamerican, There are markets in Texas, the midwest and the northwest that are actually appreciating, but Cali, Florida and the Phoenix metro area have another 15% or so to go on the downside, overall your figure of another 5-10% nationally might not be far off! I do agree with the personal income-housing cost ratio and that is one reason why one of the high flying areas(Las Vegas) will recover faster than the rest. Las Vegas is still creating jobs, and at the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder they are much better paying jobs than the rest of the country. As for Laopo, I think he has been having a few bad months not days, but that is a matter of perception Sonic, I did reread my post from a week ago and while I did not refer to a German real estate crisis (per se), I can see how you might have interperted that as such due to the fact that in the prior sentence I mentioned many countries in Europe could be having their own real estate crisis by years end. In any event I do hope that the Euro comes back down to earth so that any broad economic slowdown in Europe will be short lived

[LaoPo]

As for Laopo, I think he has been having a few bad months not days, but that is a matter of perception

Dont you worry Vic, I'm fine; your perception might have been blurred by the heat

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

Siamamerican, There are markets in Texas, the midwest and the northwest that are actually appreciating, but Cali, Florida and the Phoenix metro area have another 15% or so to go on the downside, overall your figure of another 5-10% nationally might not be far off! I do agree with the personal income-housing cost ratio and that is one reason why one of the high flying areas(Las Vegas) will recover faster than the rest. Las Vegas is still creating jobs, and at the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder they are much better paying jobs than the rest of the country. As for Laopo, I think he has been having a few bad months not days, but that is a matter of perception Sonic, I did reread my post from a week ago and while I did not refer to a German real estate crisis (per se), I can see how you might have interperted that as such due to the fact that in the prior sentence I mentioned many countries in Europe could be having their own real estate crisis by years end. In any event I do hope that the Euro comes back down to earth so that any broad economic slowdown in Europe will be short lived

I have little knowledge of the LV market, but your rational makes sense. Most my family lives in Arizona and invests heavily in real estate. They have done extremely well the last few years, making 2x to 3x on their investments than my investments in the stock markets.

They have taken different routes. One brother buys 5 to 10 acres of land at a time in Prescott, AZ. He then subdivides the parcel and builds one home at a time. He does it for the most part with his own money and lives in home while building the next home. I've looked at his financial calcs and values would have to drop 40% for him to take a loss. He is extremely conservative and is currently not building.

Another brother buys homes that need a lot of work, but in exclusive neighborhoods. He for the most part, is leveraged. He has made more money in the last few years than I've made in the last 10. Not for the faint of heart, including myself. He just bought a 1.8 mil home in Phoenix and is working his butt off to fix it up. I hope it all ends well and we don't see that 15% decline over the next year.

As for Laopo, he rubs me wrong way with his posts that misrepresent my posts and the pasting of articles with little to no explanation of their relevance. I'm OK with disagreeing and actually find people with an alternative point of view refreshing. I hope other TV members don't feel I'm claiming to be superior to him, but, to be honest, I haven't taken the high road.

[sonicdragon]

Nice to see some sanity returning

Just a couple of points on your post, Vic. While inventory declined last month, it is still at at almost 10 months worth of sales, at current sales levels. Until the pace of sales picks up, declining inventory won't help much, though it's a step in the right direction. Also, inventory numbers from the Census Bureau need to be considered carefully because they do *not* include changes due to cancellations (which are at record levels), nor the market for many condos (which has been an important part of new builds in the recent run up).

As for Euro-land, I'd like to see the numbers referred to by your friend regarding Germany. To my mind the German economy is in very good shape (relatively) : home prices are not stretched compared to personal incomes (and home prices have not grown at a high rate), corporate and personal debt are at relatively low levels, business confidence remains high, and exports (even to the US) remain strong. I think the point about Russia is bogus because German exports to Russia account for less than 5% of total exports - the US is Germany's biggest non-EU export partner (less than 10%). China is a much bigger export partner than Russia.

Sonic, As you so astutely pointed out "it is still almost 10 months worth of slaes at current sales levels" , of course that assumes that sales will never pick up from the current anemic levels, this obviously will not be the case. To further clarify the situation there are areas that have further to come down like Florida (particularly Miami area condos) and many parts of California and Phoenix AZ, and the duration of the problem in those areas will indeed last longer. These areas are skewing the national numbers and will do so for the remaineder of the year and into next year. There are areas of the midwest and northwest that are actually seeing appreciation and strong sales, but outsiders fail to see this because they are bombarded by all the negative press about the hardhit areas (areas most of which had a doubling of values during the boom 2003-2006). As for Euro-land, my friend at GS was clear that he thought that by the end of the year or early next year there would be some very substantial real estate problems in Europe, his particular view on Germany however was more along the lines of decreasing exports (to U.S., Russia, and other EU countries as their econmies slow) leading to more job losses and potential problems with trade unions, if I mischaracterized this in my original post as a "German real estate crisis" I certainly apologize, I will have to go back and read that post again. As we both know, Germany has a much smaller percentage of home ownership than the U.S. and did not see a doubling of real estate values in 2003-2006 like many areas like the U.S. so it is unlikely that Germany itself would likely have a severe real estate crisis. As far as export percentages go, I will gladly take your word that Russia accounts for only 5% of German exports, but when you tie that to a reduction of exports to the U.S. and eventually to other EU countries, that leaves China to save German exports While I feel that Germany has been and will continue to be the economic superpower of the EU, I certainly would not want to depend on exports to China over the next 12-18 months to save the German export sector.

Vic, in order for housing to be a driver of the economy as it has been in the past, coming out of recessions, it is housing starts that needs to pick up. Until the level of inventory comes down a long way, it's unlikely that starts are going to improve. That means the level of sales has to pick up. That in turn means that prices have to stabilise, which does not appear to be happening yet. Arguably, housing will not be a driver of the economy at all, since it is housing that is leading the economy into recession. One bright point in the economy has been non-residential construction, which had been remarkably strong up to 2007Q4, but that also now seems to have turned down and with ominous signs of strain in the commercial real-estate lending market, the outlook there doesn't look very good either, in the near term.

As for Germany, I'm not sure what you are saying now. In your earlier post you said "Germany has a very strong export market to Russia" and I mentioned that was bogus since German exports to Russia less than 5%. The actual number is 2% . Now you are talking about Germany being depsndent on China - well, exports to China are 3.5% so talking about Germany dependng on exports to China is also bogus. Even for the whole of the EU, exports to China are less than 5% - Russia is a little over 5% for the whole EU. The danger for Germany and the EU generally, as far as exports are concerned is the US - not China or Russia. If the US avoids recession (IMHO highly unlikely) that will be great for the EU - if the recession is deep and protracted it will be bad for the EU (and the world).

[ray23]

The dollar Vs. the baht has done well in the past week, is this a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a trend?

[LaoPo]

The dollar Vs. the baht has done well in the past week, is this a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a trend?

US $ versus Baht

1 month chart

3 month chart

12 month chart

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

The dollar Vs. the baht has done well in the past week, is this a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a trend?

US $ versus Baht

1 month chart

3 month chart

12 month chart

LaoPo

Those are "offshore" charts, right Lao Po? Anyplace to find "onshore" charts?

[LaoPo]

Those are "offshore" charts, right Lao Po? Anyplace to find "onshore" charts?

From here:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I'm not sure where to find the best 'onshore' rates as I never use them.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Those are "offshore" charts, right Lao Po? Anyplace to find "onshore" charts?

From here:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I'm not sure where to find the best 'onshore' rates as I never use them.

LaoPo

Thanks. I wonder which set of values will comprise the historical record? Thailand!

[LaoPo]

Those are "offshore" charts, right Lao Po? Anyplace to find "onshore" charts?

From here:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I'm not sure where to find the best 'onshore' rates as I never use them.

LaoPo

Thanks. I wonder which set of values will comprise the historical record? Thailand!

I miss your point in that sentence......

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Those are "offshore" charts, right Lao Po? Anyplace to find "onshore" charts?

From here:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...678/default.stm

I'm not sure where to find the best 'onshore' rates as I never use them.

LaoPo

Thanks. I wonder which set of values will comprise the historical record? Thailand!

I miss your point in that sentence......

LaoPo

My point is I wonder if the offshore rate, which is widely charted, or the onshore rate, which is where most foreign exchange actually took place, will be the basis for historic THB exchange rate charts. My guess is it will be offshore, which IMO would be a major historical inaccuracy.

[cclub75]

I'm not sure where to find the best 'onshore' rates as I never use them.

LaoPo

Well... it was very important !

You'll find history of on shore rates here (SCB bank)

http://www.scb.co.th/html/exchange/bk-pvsexchange.htm

I would like to emphasize that "off shores" rates were virtual and meaningless for people living and doing business in Thailand (import and export).

Thai companies exchanged their USD, Euro... at the on shore rates with thai banks.

Thai importers were buying their USD, Euros at the on shore rates.

Edited April 7, 2008 by cclub75

[gregybn]

Goodbye to the dollar?

A most interesting perspective... by a very well qualified writer

The writer is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF

[LaoPo]

Goodbye to the dollar?

A most interesting perspective... by a very well qualified writer

The writer is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF

Interesting indeed, but bloody small letters to read; I invite you to post the whole article in a bigger letter; up to you though.

LaoPo

[dave_boo]

Goodbye to the dollar?

A most interesting perspective... by a very well qualified writer

The writer is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF

Interesting indeed, but bloody small letters to read; I invite you to post the whole article in a bigger letter; up to you though.

LaoPo

May I suggest you to open the page, hold down your 'ctrl' key and use your mouse wheel to adjust the font size? It works in Firefox and Internet Explorer 6.

[LaoPo]

Goodbye to the dollar?

A most interesting perspective... by a very well qualified writer

The writer is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF

Interesting indeed, but bloody small letters to read; I invite you to post the whole article in a bigger letter; up to you though.

LaoPo

May I suggest you to open the page, hold down your 'ctrl' key and use your mouse wheel to adjust the font size? It works in Firefox and Internet Explorer 6.

I am most grateful ! Didn't know that. Thanks.

LaoPo

[ray23]

This thread was started about four months ago, interesting to see the thoughts and where we are today. Some were right om. some close and others may have missed the mark.

"Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Years Before G-8

By Kosuke Goto

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in two years against the euro on speculation officials from the Group of Eight nations will signal they favor a stronger U.S. currency.

The currency was also poised for the biggest weekly advance since November versus the yen before a government report that will probably show U.S. inflation accelerated, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The dollar's gains are ``very satisfying,'' French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters in Osaka, before meeting her counterparts today and tomorrow. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson this week signaled the U.S. may buy its own currency.

``It seems that the U.S. is making serious efforts to defend the dollar,'' said Kenichi Nishii, manager of the foreign-exchange trading department at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan's biggest publicly traded lender. ``It's not a matter whether the Fed will hike rates, it's a matter of when.''

The dollar traded at $1.5444 per euro at 6:32 a.m. in London from $1.5439 in New York yesterday. The dollar rose 2.2 percent this week, the most since the five days ending June 9, 2006. The currency traded at 107.76 yen from 107.96 yesterday. It has risen 2.7 percent this week, the biggest advance since December 2004. The euro traded at 166.42 yen from 166.68.

The U.S. currency may rise to $1.54 a euro and 108.50 yen today, Nishii forecast. The dollar rose to 108.08 yen yesterday, the highest level since Feb. 26.

The yen headed for its fifth weekly decline versus the euro, the longest losing streak since October, after the Bank of Japan concluded a two-day policy meeting in Tokyo at which it left the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent. The Australian dollar headed for its biggest weekly loss in almost three months and the New Zealand currency was poised for a third weekly decline as traders added to bets the Fed will raise rates.

Discuss Currencies

``The strengthening of the dollar seems very satisfying to me,'' said Lagarde. ``You can't discuss the volatility of oil products without discussing the questions linked to exchange rates even if exchange rates aren't a determined topic of the G- 8.''

Japan's Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga also told reporters in Tokyo today he and Paulson may discuss currencies on the sidelines of the G-8 gathering. The group comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, Canada and Russia.

``Sentiment is in favor of a continued dollar recovery,'' said Paul Milton, chief foreign-exchange dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``There are suggestions left, right and center that there will be intervention.''

The dollar will strengthen to 108.50 and $1.5350 a euro in coming days, he said.

Intervention History

The last time the major industrialized countries intervened was on Sept. 22, 2000, when they bought the euro after it tumbled 27 percent from its 1999 debut. They last propped up the dollar in 1995, when it sank almost 20 percent in four months against the Japanese yen to a post-World War II low of 79.95. Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging purchases or sales of foreign exchange.

The U.S. currency on June 9 strengthened from a six-week low as Paulson said in an interview with CNBC that he would ``never'' rule out currency intervention.

The economic outlook has improved from a month ago, and central bankers will combat any increase in inflation expectations, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the same day. He also said on June 3 he's aware of the impact a falling currency can have on price expectations.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan will release at 3 p.m. in Tokyo its economic assessment for June. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. local time.

``There is some risk that Governor Shirakawa will speak in a less dovish manner than his previous remarks,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., Britain's third-biggest bank. ``In that case, this might be a positive surprise for the yen.''

The dollar has risen against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies this week as a Commerce Department report yesterday showed U.S. retail sales increased 1 percent in May as Americans used their tax rebates to shop.

Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.5 percent last month after a 0.2 percent increase in April, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Labor Department will release its report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Yield Spread

The yield spread between two-year U.S. Treasury notes and similar-maturity German government bonds today narrowed to 1.49 percentage points, the least since May 14, increasing the allure of dollar denominated assets.

Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday a 65 percent chance the central bank will increase the target lending rate by at least a quarter-percentage point at its August meeting, compared with 8 percent odds a week ago.

The Fed has lowered its benchmark rate to 2 percent from 5.25 percent since September to prevent widening subprime losses from stalling economic growth. The European Central Bank has kept its main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent since last June.

Australia's currency traded at 93.96 U.S. cents from 93.68 cents in late Asian trading yesterday and 96.26 a week ago in New York. New Zealand's currency bought 75.01 U.S. cents from 75.17 cents late in Asian trading yesterday. It has declined 2.2 percent from 76.74 cents in New York trading on June 6.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at [email protected]

Last Updated: June 13, 2008 01:37 EDT "

[lordofdelusion]

The dollar would be stronger against the Baht if the BOT was not defending the currency. See the Thailand news clippings area for that story. Still, the BOT can't hold out forever. The dollar will rise again in the LOS. Just won't be any tourists here to enjoy it!

[cclub75]

The dollar would be stronger against the Baht if the BOT was not defending the currency. See the Thailand news clippings area for that story. Still, the BOT can't hold out forever. The dollar will rise again in the LOS. Just won't be any tourists here to enjoy it!

I think we should ease our enthousiasm.

Since the low of 71 in march, the USD Index is now at... 74. That's +4,3 %.

One year ago we were at 82. Three years ago, at 88.

Chart here.

And this only, because mister bernanke said that he discovered that the US had an inflation problem, linked (for one part) to a USD problem...

The market assumes that the FED is going to increase its rates... Wait and see.

The credit situation is already very difficult, the real estate market is going down non stop... so increase rates now ?

It's like Trichet. Everybody call him a "hawk". Sure. The guy speaks about inflation... a lot... and since many months. What the BCE is doing ? On hold. Like most of central banks in the world...

So, let's see first if words will be transformed in actions. And after, we will be able to evaluate the famous "rebound" of the USD.

[ray23]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

For currency traders seems to be wait and see. If there is a move in the states more then likely it will be if infaltion rates. As pointed out actions not words. But being paid in dollars I like what I have seen so far. But tomorrow is a new day.

[Gary A]

If all the experts knew what exchange rates were going to do, they would be making huge amounts of money instead of speculating and getting paid for writing stories.

[wilko]

The dollar would be stronger against the Baht if the BOT was not defending the currency. See the Thailand news clippings area for that story. Still, the BOT can't hold out forever. The dollar will rise again in the LOS. Just won't be any tourists here to enjoy it!

I think we should ease our enthousiasm.

Since the low of 71 in march, the USD Index is now at... 74. That's +4,3 %.

One year ago we were at 82. Three years ago, at 88.

Chart here.

And this only, because mister bernanke said that he discovered that the US had an inflation problem, linked (for one part) to a USD problem...

The market assumes that the FED is going to increase its rates... Wait and see.

The credit situation is already very difficult, the real estate market is going down non stop... so increase rates now ?

It's like Trichet. Everybody call him a "hawk". Sure. The guy speaks about inflation... a lot... and since many months. What the BCE is doing ? On hold. Like most of central banks in the world...

So, let's see first if words will be transformed in actions. And after, we will be able to evaluate the famous "rebound" of the USD.

sorry 74 what?

[cclub75]

The dollar would be stronger against the Baht if the BOT was not defending the currency. See the Thailand news clippings area for that story. Still, the BOT can't hold out forever. The dollar will rise again in the LOS. Just won't be any tourists here to enjoy it!

I think we should ease our enthousiasm.

Since the low of 71 in march, the USD Index is now at... 74. That's +4,3 %.

sorry 74 what?

74 points (it's an index).

Click here to see the chart.

"The USD index measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies."

This tool is very usefull to have a clear view on the trends for the USD.

Edited June 16, 2008 by cclub75