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Yeah, well Hadrian never did build the wall anway near high enough to keep these Scots buggars out, why can't he get back over the border and rule his own country??. Apart from that- recession, what recession? been there done that in the UK before and recovered quite nicely,hopefully will do the same again(fingers and everything else crossed), may take longer this time cos of all the big banking wanke_rs shafting everyone tho, all over the world, and getting huge bonuses too. (Where can I apply for a job like theirs?) But seriously too many doom and gloom merchants posting, who the he** knows what is going to happen from this fiasco from b(W)anking idiots who buy/invest in bad debts <deleted> was that all about??No brain syndrome!!, and then(in the UK) get rewarded with huge bonuses and mega pensions, no regard whatsoever for those unfortunate enough to come out on the losing side. In the UK you even get knighted, apparently, for this (AHEM!?) good business(NOT) practice!!!. Quick, get the asylum seeking applications in NOW, this prestigious job awaits any idiot(no experience necessary) looking for status in the UK. :o:D:D

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Well this is really defensive pessimism - you need to accept the grass is not greener anywhere at the moment, save a few backwaters like Thailand that are just about to experience the full hit.

Simply reread my previous posting and realise that all major economies are in the same boat.

Maybe I'm missing something : US prints money - an advantage, UK prints money - a disadvantage. :o

Dunno whether you are missing something, but that is how it works for the moment.

You're arguing minor differences, you need to see the wider picture.

The whole deal revolves around debt, and the worst debt is in the UK, take all the bailouts, the existing budgetary deficit, the printing of money, the underfunded pension schemes. Who in their right minds will invest in the UK in preference to investing in say Asia? Profits will be taxed to the hilt, the employees will be taxed to the hilt. The damned debt has to be paid off, unless Brown rewrites the rules and defaults, leaving a nation of paupers hoping for handouts at the soup kitchens.

Your original post referred to "People argue as if UK is in isolation". it certainly isn't, but the fertile earth doesn't even exists their anymore compared to other countries. And when Brown wants to come to the Global community for funding to support his spending, nobody will take on the risk except at a huge risk premium, so up go the interest rates and taxes even further.

As usual you are being utterly negative and pulling so called facts out of your hat.

I already posted this link elsewhere but it would appear to be of use here as well.

Just goes to show the UK is not the worst positioned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/st...netary_fun.html

Also if you look at Germany they are in terrible condition as is the euro in general. The european banks have incredible amounts of debt through the eastern european countries and not being in the euro protects the UK to some extent.

I suspect your assessment is way too bleak when it comes to UK.

I believe you are just not providing a balanced argument.

That sir is an understatement and extremely reserved.

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You guys are still optimistic, you think there still will be Pounds at the end of year? Pounds of what?

2.0000000 [metric] pounds per 1 kilo,

2.2046226 [avoirdupois] pounds per 1 kilo,

2.6792288 [troy] pounds per per 1 kilo.

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As usual you are being utterly negative and pulling so called facts out of your hat.

I already posted this link elsewhere but it would appear to be of use here as well.

Just goes to show the UK is not the worst positioned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/st...netary_fun.html

Also if you look at Germany they are in terrible condition as is the euro in general. The european banks have incredible amounts of debt through the eastern european countries and not being in the euro protects the UK to some extent.

Well, I went to that link and it wasn't particularly optimistic. Also it was centred on the UK

I suspect your assessment is way too bleak when it comes to UK.

I believe you are just not providing a balanced argument.

Well, it's not just me, I'm afraid

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...es-1642201.html

The Office for National Statistics reported yesterday that manufacturing output fell by 6.4 per cent in the three months to January – an even faster rate of decline than the 4.9 per cent contraction seen in the quarter to December. The motor industry was one of the hardest-hit sectors – output falling by 10.6 per cent during the quarter. Overall, the annual rate of decline in output has reached an alarming 12 per cent.

Analysts were shocked by the figures, as they point to a GDP decline in the early part of this year that may prove even steeper than that seen during the last few months of 2008, when GDP shrank by 1.5 per cent. The research firm Capital Economics said that the trends could point to GDP contracting over 2009 by "4 per cent or so".

Such a result would rank as the country's worst year for economic growth since 1931 – which saw a fall in excess of 5 per cent, the collapse of a Labour government and ushered in a miserable decade of mass unemployment and hunger. A 4 per cent slide would easily beat the post-war record of a 2.1 per cent slump, set in 1980.

So maybe you can give me a balance to this "worst year since 1931"?

And maybe instead of trying to find economies also hitting the bottom (or better said, still on the way down) to make us all feel better, perhaps we should be looking for economies that are not looking so bad and compare the UK to them? It may make everybody feel better to think that at least somebody else is deeper in the shit, and gloat over it, but it doesn't change the situation that the UK is in the biggest mess since Labour screwed up way back in 1931.

Surely to make progress we should be aiming upwards and not downwards.

So come on, give me some positive balancing opinions about the UK and how it can recover, and not simply stating, "but country xyz is looking even worse".

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Hope for the UK!!!!

Some hack McRae has done some extensive research in the skills that the UK is still a world beater. And what has he found?

- We have five universities in the world's top 40. Oh dear, just FIVE, so much for the Great British educational system.

- Pharmaceuticals are doing well, although I would like to see a comparison against Switzerland.

- The UK produces more books. Can't comment here, just wonder what sort of books are being produced

- "Reality Shows", that trash that glues morons trying to escape their own existence to the TV screen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/comme...ls-1641887.html

Well, er, hmm, that seems to be it. Surely he is missing something out? But what?

So, with India and China educating their kids in the West and moving them back to apply the skills in the east, where do YOU think the technological advances will come from? And if they do need some Western skills for a while, then how about they hire them? I bet there will be any number of graduates very happy to go to work in China and India, just to get out of the UK.

Come on then guys, balance all this out!

All I read about the school system in the UK is that Brown is dumbing the whole thing down. Sorry, can't be bothered to seek out a link, but I guess anybody who lives in the UK knows anyway.

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Well, I went to that link and it wasn't particularly optimistic. Also it was centred on the UK

Err well it would be seeing as this thread is about the GBP in relation to the Thai Baht.

What should it have been centred on? The Krugerand? The bank of Nepal?

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I think a major factor as far as judging a country's health is to look at the labor force. In Thailand, the service industry is about 37 percent of the total. The UK service industry is about 80 percent of the total. I wouldn't look for the pound to appreciate against the baht anytime soon.

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Well, I went to that link and it wasn't particularly optimistic. Also it was centred on the UK

Err well it would be seeing as this thread is about the GBP in relation to the Thai Baht.

What should it have been centred on? The Krugerand? The bank of Nepal?

I was referring to his post

Also if you look at Germany they are in terrible condition as is the euro in general. The european banks have incredible amounts of debt through the eastern european countries and not being in the euro protects the UK to some extent.

So I thought there would be more European information in the reference.

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Well, I went to that link and it wasn't particularly optimistic. Also it was centred on the UK

Err well it would be seeing as this thread is about the GBP in relation to the Thai Baht.

What should it have been centred on? The Krugerand? The bank of Nepal?

I was referring to his post

Also if you look at Germany they are in terrible condition as is the euro in general. The european banks have incredible amounts of debt through the eastern european countries and not being in the euro protects the UK to some extent.

So I thought there would be more European information in the reference.

Just have a look at Ireland, which is in a worse condition then the UK. Did it effect the Euro....No.

As i said many times. The Euro zone is a production hub. Yes, they are in trouble but what will a consumer buy when it goes up again? They will buy products they can touch. What can they consume in a banking country? Credits, saving accounts, maybe naughty papers like Lehman's or life insurances.

Anyway, this is just MHO. If i could predict currency rates i wouldn't write in here. I would be too busy spending my money.

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Just have a look at Ireland, which is in a worse condition then the UK. Did it effect the Euro....No.

As i said many times. The Euro zone is a production hub. Yes, they are in trouble but what will a consumer buy when it goes up again? They will buy products they can touch. What can they consume in a banking country? Credits, saving accounts, maybe naughty papers like Lehman's or life insurances.

Anyway, this is just MHO. If i could predict currency rates i wouldn't write in here. I would be too busy spending my money.

The Irish economy is too small to have such a huge impact on the Euro on its own. Wait until the likes of Germany who are reliant on exports and have colossal amounts of toxic debts show the books fully. Euro is in my opinion in a lot of trouble.

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The "big guns" of the Phuket Gazette recently suggested 50 baht per Pound this year and folks scoffed at this whilst I thought it was very probable - today I transfered GBP at 63.16 and the withholding tax has still not been lifted - reports are that it will be lifted soon. I suggest that when it is lifted we will be into the 50's very quickly.

70's to the Pound? - not in this decade and maybe not in the next either.

How do you get a rate of 63.16? The Baht is at 50 today.

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The "big guns" of the Phuket Gazette recently suggested 50 baht per Pound this year and folks scoffed at this whilst I thought it was very probable - today I transfered GBP at 63.16 and the withholding tax has still not been lifted - reports are that it will be lifted soon. I suggest that when it is lifted we will be into the 50's very quickly.

70's to the Pound? - not in this decade and maybe not in the next either.

How do you get a rate of 63.16? The Baht is at 50 today.

Look at the date of the post.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

I don't see why since the BOT measures THB performance against a basket of twenty regional currencies, not against USD alone. Also, there is certainly no good news on the UK economic front to suggest that the Pound could strengthen against THB.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

I don't see why since the BOT measures THB performance against a basket of twenty regional currencies, not against USD alone. Also, there is certainly no good news on the UK economic front to suggest that the Pound could strengthen against THB.

I dont think there is much chance of the pound strenghtening but our only hope is if the Baht weakens ,god knows why it is so strong ,just read the woman in charge of the BOT. saying that everything was ok in Thailand and there were no problems ,while in another article the govt were saying the opposite.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

I don't see why since the BOT measures THB performance against a basket of twenty regional currencies, not against USD alone. Also, there is certainly no good news on the UK economic front to suggest that the Pound could strengthen against THB.

I dont think there is much chance of the pound strenghtening but our only hope is if the Baht weakens ,god knows why it is so strong ,just read the woman in charge of the BOT. saying that everything was ok in Thailand and there were no problems ,while in another article the govt were saying the opposite.

I think the pound should strengthen a little due to QE. I also believe the Baht will weaken - it has too really... should be seeing 55 soon - within 3 months I would think maybe even better later in the year but not over 60 this year (or next for that matter). It sure is hurting us Brits though!!!

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

I don't see why since the BOT measures THB performance against a basket of twenty regional currencies, not against USD alone. Also, there is certainly no good news on the UK economic front to suggest that the Pound could strengthen against THB.

I dont think there is much chance of the pound strenghtening but our only hope is if the Baht weakens ,god knows why it is so strong ,just read the woman in charge of the BOT. saying that everything was ok in Thailand and there were no problems ,while in another article the govt were saying the opposite.

They have different agenda's, simple as that - for my money I would trust the things that Tarisa has to say, she's got a very sound track record, is well respected locally and internationally and history has shown her to be a pretty straight arrow.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

True enough, and it is worriesome. That said, I try not to "think too much" during Options Expiration week.

If I were to "think to much", I would make note of the fact that all counter $USD currencies are trading at lower levels than they did on the third Friday in December, which halted the $USD's plunge at that time. No forecast, just an observation.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

True enough, and it is worriesome. That said, I try not to "think too much" during Options Expiration week.

If I were to "think to much", I would make note of the fact that all counter $USD currencies are trading at lower levels than they did on the third Friday in December, which halted the $USD's plunge at that time. No forecast, just an observation.

But how much will it help GBP against the Baht? I think it will go in the 'right' direction - together with QE in Britain... should see some improvement

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

True enough, and it is worriesome. That said, I try not to "think too much" during Options Expiration week.

If I were to "think to much", I would make note of the fact that all counter $USD currencies are trading at lower levels than they did on the third Friday in December, which halted the $USD's plunge at that time. No forecast, just an observation.

But how much will it help GBP against the Baht? I think it will go in the 'right' direction - together with QE in Britain... should see some improvement

Why do you think QE in the UK will help the GBP/THB exchange rate, rationally speaking one would expect the opposite effect, I certainly do.

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

True enough, and it is worriesome. That said, I try not to "think too much" during Options Expiration week.

If I were to "think to much", I would make note of the fact that all counter $USD currencies are trading at lower levels than they did on the third Friday in December, which halted the $USD's plunge at that time. No forecast, just an observation.

what's there to worry LRB? don't we all know that in the long run we are all dead and the Dollar will go down? the hype and bluff "EUR, GBP, THB et al (especially Al ©PeaceBlondie) are doomed" spread by parties who have something specific in mind can't hold up "in the long run" as "in the long run" it's the fundamentals that count. i consider the minus 5% we saw in just a couple of days as starters what we might expect "in the long run". having said so i'd like to emphasise that there is no way for a diversified investor to bypass the dollar.

as usual all afore-said in my [not so] humble opinion, based on what my belly tells me and ignoring any potential 17th tsunami wave caused by the drop of 49 Maple Leaves in a BKK goldshop combined with the toppling of a bag of rice in a warehouse located in Northern Manchuria :o

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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

in the past days USD has lost ground against most currencies, including Euro,Yen,some asian currencies and also Aussie and NZ dollars, South American currencies and south african rand.

The impact of printing so much inorganic money (not produced by the economy), plus the interest rates near zero (this rate will be kept through 2010) and the purchase of bonds by the Govt. are putting strong pressure to USD.

The rally of USD as safe heaven maybe is closing to its end.

Anyway, I think USD will recover at some point in 2010 when 1-economy will start to recovery and housing prices too 2-interest rate will be risen for the first time 3-unemployement rate will start to descend

USD will suffer for awhile with the chance of getting back around 1.5 for euro (but i don t think it will plunge below the record of last July of 1.6) ,but hopefully if USA will get out from this dark hole smewhere around 2010 the dollar could start a new cycle of recovering.

The big enemy could be inflation, which will re-ignite as soon as consumer spending will recover too,consumer spending could also worsen again the trade deficit.....

THB is still too strong but since its value is managed and not floated we cannot expect strong movements. Usually after Songkran THB weakens , we will see if this year the pattern will be the same.

Edited by jdrake72
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I think the pound has now reached it's floor against the dollar which will give a little due to the effects of quantitive easing.

The bht. It could plummet, judging by this week's disasterous news round up.

what we see is the Dollar plummeting vs. Baht.

in the past days USD has lost ground against most currencies, including Euro,Yen,some asian currencies and also Aussie and NZ dollars, South American currencies and south african rand.

The impact of printing so much inorganic money (not produced by the economy), plus the interest rates near zero (this rate will be kept through 2010) and the purchase of bonds by the Govt. are putting strong pressure to USD.

The rally of USD as safe heaven maybe is closing to its end.

Anyway, I think USD will recover at some point in 2010 when 1-economy will start to recovery and housing prices too 2-interest rate will be risen for the first time 3-unemployement rate will start to descend

USD will suffer for awhile with the chance of getting back around 1.5 for euro (but i don t think it will plunge below the record of last July of 1.6) ,but hopefully if USA will get out from this dark hole smewhere around 2010 the dollar could start a new cycle of recovering.

The big enemy could be inflation, which will re-ignite as soon as consumer spending will recover too,consumer spending could also worsen again the trade deficit.....

THB is still too strong but since its value is managed and not floated we cannot expect strong movements. Usually after Songkran THB weakens , we will see if this year the pattern will be the same.

The Euro is possibly the next currency up for a good beating - I guess then that the US dollar, Euro, Pound, and a good few other major currencies will now move to a better balanced representation of their values.

But as Naam points out, the mighty Bt rolls on. Wonder why?

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USD collapsing against the THB, 3% down in just a couple of days,

in the last hours of today Friday THB up against dollar,euro,pound,yen and all would currencies.

I think what Thai govt. is seeking is probably a humiliation of the other currencies against the "superior" and "almight" THB, when exports are tumbling and leaving companies on the verge of bankrupcy and hundreds of thousands of people at risk of losing their jobs.

Very smart.

USD buying rate at SCB 34.85 , Euro also close down at 47.56 (47.70 at 2pm), Yen close down too.

THB is higher now compared to USD than it was on the begin of December.Is still Somebody talking about an "orderly" devaulation ? :-) ;-)

What I see is a revaluation, not a devaluation.

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USD collapsing against the THB, 3% down in just a couple of days,

in the last hours of today Friday THB up against dollar,euro,pound,yen and all would currencies.

I think what Thai govt. is seeking is probably a humiliation of the other currencies against the "superior" and "almight" THB, when exports are tumbling and leaving companies on the verge of bankrupcy and hundreds of thousands of people at risk of losing their jobs.

Very smart.

USD buying rate at SCB 34.85 , Euro also close down at 47.56 (47.70 at 2pm), Yen close down too.

THB is higher now compared to USD than it was on the begin of December.Is still Somebody talking about an "orderly" devaulation ? :-) ;-)

What I see is a revaluation, not a devaluation.

What determines the strength of a currency?

The THB interest rate is higher than the USD or GBP, Thailand have a trading surplus and large foreign currency reserves, the Thai banking system is untouched compared to the wreck in the UK and US, there are no moves here to debase the currency using the nasty weapon called quantitative easing.

So a lot of positives for the Baht. And the negatives?

A fall in exports and tourism. But hey! How much does that compare to the incredible losses in asset values in the US and UK? Or the massive job losses? And the huge debts being created for the future tax payers to carry.

As the manufacturing industries have been moved out of the Western countries there will still be a demand for manufactured goods from Asia. Maybe tourism will move upmarket to those who can afford to have a holiday in Asia? After all, compared to the resorts in the West, the Thais have a lot to offer and are still cheap. Maybe the trend will be away from a dirt cheap tropical holiday to a value for money luxury holiday in paradise without the hoi-palloi budget holiday makers?

IMO there is now going to be a shift in wealth and standard of living from the West to the East. Surely this is logical? In the end the debtors have to pay up and the lenders will have the power. And somehow it doesn't seem quite fair that somebody can come across to Thailand on a small pension and live up the life that the locals can only dream about. Particularly when the locals are producing the goods that are exported to the West so that the West can enjoy their standard of living.

This is now globalisation in a big way, and it means that the factory worker in the UK on 23,000 Quid/year plus huge benefits is competing with the Thai worker on 1,000 Quid/year with no benefits. This is a massive imbalance on the global scale and I am convinced that this difference cannot be maintained in the future. The manufacturing industry in the West is becoming increasingly inviable. Bailouts and more bailouts, but even then, the products will be too expensive compared to the East. Just look at the labour costs.

The West, particularly the UK and US, have embarked on a process of devaluing their currencies with "QE" to stimulate their own economies. Why should Asia follow? Or, indeed, how can they do it? By printing Baht? Why should they do it? With the current reserves they should stimulate the domestic markets and move away from reliance on the foreign markets. There is no need to print money here.

I think there is going to be a painful shift in economic strength from the West to the East. And it will have a big effect on a lot of foreigners living here. The big party of the last fifteen years might well be coming to an end.

Doubtless there will be a lot of knee jerk reactions, but just think about it for a few minutes. Is your reaction based on a selfish "NO, they can't do this to me, I won't accept it" or can you offer an alternative based on reasoning, which I would be interested in hearing.

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USD collapsing against the THB, 3% down in just a couple of days,

in the last hours of today Friday THB up against dollar,euro,pound,yen and all would currencies.

I think what Thai govt. is seeking is probably a humiliation of the other currencies against the "superior" and "almight" THB, when exports are tumbling and leaving companies on the verge of bankrupcy and hundreds of thousands of people at risk of losing their jobs.

Very smart.

USD buying rate at SCB 34.85 , Euro also close down at 47.56 (47.70 at 2pm), Yen close down too.

THB is higher now compared to USD than it was on the begin of December.Is still Somebody talking about an "orderly" devaulation ? :-) ;-)

What I see is a revaluation, not a devaluation.

What determines the strength of a currency?

The THB interest rate is higher than the USD or GBP, Thailand have a trading surplus and large foreign currency reserves, the Thai banking system is untouched compared to the wreck in the UK and US, there are no moves here to debase the currency using the nasty weapon called quantitative easing.

So a lot of positives for the Baht. And the negatives?

A fall in exports and tourism. But hey! How much does that compare to the incredible losses in asset values in the US and UK? Or the massive job losses? And the huge debts being created for the future tax payers to carry.

As the manufacturing industries have been moved out of the Western countries there will still be a demand for manufactured goods from Asia. Maybe tourism will move upmarket to those who can afford to have a holiday in Asia? After all, compared to the resorts in the West, the Thais have a lot to offer and are still cheap. Maybe the trend will be away from a dirt cheap tropical holiday to a value for money luxury holiday in paradise without the hoi-palloi budget holiday makers?

IMO there is now going to be a shift in wealth and standard of living from the West to the East. Surely this is logical? In the end the debtors have to pay up and the lenders will have the power. And somehow it doesn't seem quite fair that somebody can come across to Thailand on a small pension and live up the life that the locals can only dream about. Particularly when the locals are producing the goods that are exported to the West so that the West can enjoy their standard of living.

This is now globalisation in a big way, and it means that the factory worker in the UK on 23,000 Quid/year plus huge benefits is competing with the Thai worker on 1,000 Quid/year with no benefits. This is a massive imbalance on the global scale and I am convinced that this difference cannot be maintained in the future. The manufacturing industry in the West is becoming increasingly inviable. Bailouts and more bailouts, but even then, the products will be too expensive compared to the East. Just look at the labour costs.

The West, particularly the UK and US, have embarked on a process of devaluing their currencies with "QE" to stimulate their own economies. Why should Asia follow? Or, indeed, how can they do it? By printing Baht? Why should they do it? With the current reserves they should stimulate the domestic markets and move away from reliance on the foreign markets. There is no need to print money here.

I think there is going to be a painful shift in economic strength from the West to the East. And it will have a big effect on a lot of foreigners living here. The big party of the last fifteen years might well be coming to an end.

Doubtless there will be a lot of knee jerk reactions, but just think about it for a few minutes. Is your reaction based on a selfish "NO, they can't do this to me, I won't accept it" or can you offer an alternative based on reasoning, which I would be interested in hearing.

Very interesting way of thinking and for sure there is a lot of trueth in there.

Yes, in the East as you say, they didn't give the banks too much power.

I agree

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