Housing Bubble To Hit Los

[samran]

i would think most would rather deal with individual first time homebuyers as they are considered to be more stable and generally have the funds as they do not generally have any other large outlays as the home is the primary outlay. most flippers are playing an extension game that is as much a bet as well as gambling for a payoff and most likely do not have the funds to cover the full costs or ride it out!

Rather deal with first home buyers? Man, what drugs are you on????

Lets see. You are developer and you are trying to see a new condo project through to completion. Two people walk into the office. Tell me, who would you rather deal with?

1) A first home buyer, with no ownership record, very little in the way of equity, no credit history for a purchase this big. He only wants to buy one, which says he can't afford to buy much more. He'll need to finance the purchase, only having scraped together a 10% deposit.

OR

2) Quite well off Thai, usually from a large wealth family with lots of assets behind them which the own lock, stock, and barrel. They offer to pay CASH deposits for 5 units in your building. You know that they are going to flip it, but so what? If push comes to shove and they can't sell it, they have the cash to buy the whole 5 outright and sit on them until the market is more boyant.

THE ANSWER PLEASE.........

A) on planet Sochu, you say "I'll take (1)...the poor guy who is only going to buy one of my apartments on finance. Hey I've got plenty of time and energy to go look for another 299 low calibre investors who could lose their jobs if the economy takes a dive".

' on planet business reality, you take (2).

[PadThaiGuy]

Everyone know the price per meter when out shopping for a condo. It's no secret.

Flippers are selling their units for more then the going rate?

Rediculous.

[Naam]

First, the range of my rental is 65,000 to 85,000/month. 95% of my property are leased to a non-English speaking race, Japanese.

if 65-85k is a typo Irene i apologise in advance for being arrogant. based on your quite professional postings and explanations as far as real estate is concerned i got the impression that you are indeed "established" in this business. however, the amount and the percentage you mentioned in context indicates something quite different.

[xyborg]

<br />Everyone know the price per meter when out shopping for a condo. It's no secret.<br />Flippers are selling their units for more then the going rate?<br />Rediculous.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

I have never looked at price per metere I just look at "the price"

[Irene]

First, the range of my rental is 65,000 to 85,000/month. 95% of my property are leased to a non-English speaking race, Japanese.

if 65-85k is a typo Irene i apologise in advance for being arrogant. based on your quite professional postings and explanations as far as real estate is concerned i got the impression that you are indeed "established" in this business. however, the amount and the percentage you mentioned in context indicates something quite different.

65-85K are real. The 65k income is derived from my investment of 2.5-3.5M 25 years ago. In terms of the amount, our family is established alright in investing and renting.

[sukanyacondo]

<br />

First, <u>the range of my rental is 65,000 to 85,000/month</u>. 95% of my property are leased to a non-English speaking race, Japanese.

<br />if 65-85k is a typo Irene i apologise in advance for being arrogant. based on your quite professional postings and explanations as far as real estate is concerned i got the impression that you are indeed "established" in this business. however, the amount and the percentage you mentioned in context indicates something quite different.<br /> <img src="style_emoticons/default/whistling.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="whistling.gif" /> <br />

<br /><br /><br />65-85K are real. The 65k income is derived from my investment of 2.5-3.5M 25 years ago. In terms of the amount, our family is established alright in investing and renting.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

The term head, wall and banging come to mind Irene.

[shochu]

samran,

You offer some great advice and you are usually well reserved in your postings. Perhaps I inadvertantly egged you on with my short retorts - which were not intentional - but more of surprise.

In this case it appears

you are distorting things in your favor to TRY and win this argument. it is not about winning anything - but about disclosure and trying to figure out if some posters are not always sincere in their postings to try and sway things so that they may profit - which inevitably is at the expense of other posters here.

as well -most prefer first time home owners, or past home owners with a stable job hence they must meet the basic requirements. in this reference you are trying to make it sound like most individual home buyers are not qualified.

of course any developer would like a wealthy investor to be a part of an investment - if they have the equity to cover the whole purchase and they are in it for the full ride. If you go back into what i have said - i have repeated said people - as in many flippers - are buying a few - and have used the term skimming off the top AND refering to expats doing this.

I have in other posts talked about wealthy investors buying hundreds of units at a time - and guess what - we have serious problems now in the market where i am!

irene,

i gave leads to which you have taken and ran with - which usually means one thing - i will leave you to figure it out. and now we know that you are in the business and although you sometimes offer good advice - we should always take what you have said with caution as you are always promoting yourself!!

[Irene]

irene,

i gave leads to which you have taken and ran with - which usually means one thing - i will leave you to figure it out. and now we know that you are in the business and although you sometimes offer good advice - we should always take what you have said with caution as you are always promoting yourself!!

Of course, investment in assets for profits is a business. But I don't rely on this forum for clients or for property sellers. I no longer intend to contribute on property matters any more. That is fine with me. After point-by-point explanations, you just don't get it.

I can accept your slight on this angle. But don't call me stupid, uneducated and a liar which are the adjectives that no good forum should tolerate.

[highdiver]

irene,

You just revealed yourself as a used car salesmen - pity on you. I wondered why you kept harping the tiresome mantra of "must be very close to the subway"and now I know. By this reasoning, then 90+% of condos are not to be invested in?

AND your buddy's comments border on racism - how lovely he must be,

YES you, thaigene,

AND very astute comments on tokyo - when were you there - just after the war??

shochu,

First, I have no intention of selling my condos, so how can I be a used car salesman. I share my view with others and conclude in my mind of staying away from those condos that have no fall back prospects.

Readers may or may not subscribe to this belief that does not affect me at all. I am certain that for some readers, they must have some

fruits of thought from me.

Second, I don't know who is thaigene.

Third, I have been to Tokyo last year and walk all over the places and had that impression.

I must hit on your soft spots unintentionally to cause you to be so mean in labelling your fellow participants. Look at yourself and ask what have you contributed to this forum?

totally agree with you Irene.

Er have discussed this on this forum many times before.

there are many condo owners who buy a condo just for the sake of having it. they don't rent or let it and they are just keeping it as a holiday or a second home.

the fact that prices hold is a further proof of this trend.

I own several condos and i don't rent them out nor do i plan to sell them.

[ray08]

you are distorting things in your favor to TRY and win this argument. it is not about winning anything - but about disclosure and trying to figure out if some posters are not always sincere in their postings to try and sway things so that they may profit - which inevitably is at the expense of other posters here.

Shochu ,

Agree or not on flippers , One thing is for sure ,since when are Forums 100% sincere ? , know one really knows who we are , a few have stated and entered web links to what they do , but in genreal i beleive this forum is not intented to be gospel and if we are taking advice from this forum to buy real estate without doing our own due dilegence , it,s buyer beware ,

I would be very supprised that people can be swayed in large investment decisions by what a unknown person writes on a forum, at least i hope people are not that easy lead.

Full disclosure is when you are writting contracts and dealing with lawyers, here all we have are different viewpoints and advice , some very bad, some good ,some very good ,some very biased and some just straight out sales pitches ,but remember this is a anonomouys internet forum nothing less nothing more , so i would not worry about people being buying up real estate or not buying because of what they read here ,at least i hope that people you use more that a forum to make such a desicion or at best , do there own research based on what they read here

Edited March 30, 2008 by ray08

[quiksilva]

I also find Schozu's & Co's attacks distasteful and undeserved. As any seasoned reader of this forum knows, Irene is a valued member of this community and has done a lot to offer readers valuable independent guidance and insights into the reality of acting as a condo investor in this market.

It would be great shame to lose her.

[Schooner]

I think that the topic was is the Thailand Housing market a bubble. Here's what I think: The US housing bubble was driven by low interest rates and a lack of morgage oversight. It was out of control for 10 years but is just now collapsing because every warm body who could possibly get a loan to buy a house has bought one and there are no more suckers, er, I mean qualified buyers to buy in to keep the bubble afloat. It's been kind of like musical chairs, "don't be left standing when the music stops"

Several of my friends who made millions on the US bubble started working there way out last year and only got stuck with a few properties unsold which they can easily handle.

Thailand is not a bubble in the same sense as the US was because it is not being driven by cheap, out of control lending. It is being driven by demand from developed countries that have become over valued. The big corperate developers know this and have plans for thousands of new units because there is demand for them. Where are all the baby boomers going to find there piece of paridise at an affordable price?

I agree that lot's of bad things could happen but you have to be a poker player to invest in anything and for my money Thailand housing has been safer and a more consistant a return for the past 3 years that I have had a small piece of it. I bought in with the idea of flipping but now rent for a very nice 9.5% return and that's not counting the currency exchange profit if I sold now (18%)

Now I've had offers to sell but I don't know where I would put the money and get the same return with the same security. I know Thailand is not perfect, but look at the alternitives. I occasionally read the negative crap that gets posted here by the disgruntaled few but my investment just continues to appreciate.

[clausewitz]

Irene is a valued member of this community and has done a lot to offer readers valuable independent guidance and insights into the reality of acting as a condo investor in this market.

You're kidding.

[Samuian]

....edit.... I occasionally read the negative crap that gets posted here by the disgruntaled few but my investment just continues to appreciate.

Good for you, do you mind to mention where do you own this property?

I wouldn't like to own property in Nakhon Nowwhere... it may take ages till it shows some results.

And on the contrary there are those "Boom-Places"... like

....on Samui, some are trying very hard to knock off their "opportunities"... it's NOT ALL Gold that shines and one certainly hasn't to be disgruntled to make a negative statement, maybe just made negative experience or varying information and therefor has a differing view then you.

[quiksilva]

Irene is a valued member of this community and has done a lot to offer readers valuable independent guidance and insights into the reality of acting as a condo investor in this market.

You're kidding.

No, I am not. Irene has always been very open about her investment activities. There has been plenty of disclosure, certainly enough for an internet forum and plenty for people to judge for themselves the value of her posts. I am simply calling out this witch hunt for what it is.

Remember, all this vitriol stemmed from Irene's so called "bias" towards assets with good access to the BTS, because she has some. Personally I can not understand how others have taken this point and then made the leap to conspiracy theories about hidden agendas geared towards ripping off readers of this forum.

The only way that could be true, would be for the contending parties to somehow demonstrably prove that locations with good BTS access were bad investments, which is clearly balderdash.

Even if that could somehow be done [??????], seeing as there was never any question nor indeed indication, anywhere, of Irene seeking buyers/ tenants for her assets how could there possibly be vested interests at play?

[Disclosure: I am an agent who specializes in commercial and industrial property, but do not know Irene in real life so thus am never likely to work with her]

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

I am not an agent or do I have any property for sale or rent. But on the issue of Irene I agree with quiksilva. The harassment seems uncalled for. I should mention I do not know Irene.

This constant picking is screwing up a interesting thread. Besides a lot of people make money off the real estate market, so why shouldn"t Irene? Can't help but feel that those that don't have anything can't stand to see someone successful.

[Naam]

Irene is a valued member of this community and has done a lot to offer readers valuable independent guidance and insights into the reality of acting as a condo investor in this market.

You're kidding.

not really Clausewitz. Irene has indeed contributed a lot to real estate matters/questions. the fact remains that most of us are somehow a bit biased when we talk about the asset class we like most or in which we are mainly invested.

[clausewitz]

I stand corrected, thanks Naam.

[samran]

agree with the above, would be a massive shame for you to leave Irene......

Your advice here is invaluable, and has helped make this part of the board one of the better places to find advice on matters such as these.

[palm]

agree with the above, would be a massive shame for you to leave Irene......

Your advice here is invaluable, and has helped make this part of the board one of the better places to find advice on matters such as these.

Yes, stay Irene. You are a refreshing change from all the plebs and hard-done-bys who post their moaning 'life's not fair' messages. They are just jealous of your success.

[lardy]

I think that the topic was is the Thailand Housing market a bubble. Here's what I think: The US housing bubble was driven by low interest rates and a lack of morgage oversight. It was out of control for 10 years but is just now collapsing because every warm body who could possibly get a loan to buy a house has bought one and there are no more suckers, er, I mean qualified buyers to buy in to keep the bubble afloat. It's been kind of like musical chairs, "don't be left standing when the music stops"

Several of my friends who made millions on the US bubble started working there way out last year and only got stuck with a few properties unsold which they can easily handle.

Thailand is not a bubble in the same sense as the US was because it is not being driven by cheap, out of control lending. It is being driven by demand from developed countries that have become over valued. The big corperate developers know this and have plans for thousands of new units because there is demand for them. Where are all the baby boomers going to find there piece of paridise at an affordable price?

I agree that lot's of bad things could happen but you have to be a poker player to invest in anything and for my money Thailand housing has been safer and a more consistant a return for the past 3 years that I have had a small piece of it. I bought in with the idea of flipping but now rent for a very nice 9.5% return and that's not counting the currency exchange profit if I sold now (18%)

Now I've had offers to sell but I don't know where I would put the money and get the same return with the same security. I know Thailand is not perfect, but look at the alternitives. I occasionally read the negative crap that gets posted here by the disgruntaled few but my investment just continues to appreciate.

Correct, same as me more than 10% (net) rental yields and in the 2 years since buying prices in my development have gone up over 25%. So good has it been that I have just bought another unit the only real downer has been the strengthening baht (only when buying as rental's increased)but even that hasnt affecte d it to much .

[lardy]

....edit.... I occasionally read the negative crap that gets posted here by the disgruntaled few but my investment just continues to appreciate.

Good for you, do you mind to mention where do you own this property?

I wouldn't like to own property in Nakhon Nowwhere... it may take ages till it shows some results.

And on the contrary there are those "Boom-Places"... like

....on Samui, some are trying very hard to knock off their "opportunities"... it's NOT ALL Gold that shines and one certainly hasn't to be disgruntled to make a negative statement, maybe just made negative experience or varying information and therefor has a differing view then you.

Why the hel_l would anyone in their right mind tell the world the best place to invest? I;LL KEEP IT TO MYSELF THANKS, I think Irene sometimes gives too much helpful info out. Get off your backside and do your own research.

[lardy]

irene,

You just revealed yourself as a used car salesmen - pity on you. I wondered why you kept harping the tiresome mantra of "must be very close to the subway"and now I know. By this reasoning, then 90+% of condos are not to be invested in?

AND your buddy's comments border on racism - how lovely he must be,

YES you, thaigene,

AND very astute comments on tokyo - when were you there - just after the war??

shochu,

First, I have no intention of selling my condos, so how can I be a used car salesman. I share my view with others and conclude in my mind of staying away from those condos that have no fall back prospects.

Readers may or may not subscribe to this belief that does not affect me at all. I am certain that for some readers, they must have some

fruits of thought from me.

Second, I don't know who is thaigene.

Third, I have been to Tokyo last year and walk all over the places and had that impression.

I must hit on your soft spots unintentionally to cause you to be so mean in labelling your fellow participants. Look at yourself and ask what have you contributed to this forum?

totally agree with you Irene.

Er have discussed this on this forum many times before.

there are many condo owners who buy a condo just for the sake of having it. they don't rent or let it and they are just keeping it as a holiday or a second home.

the fact that prices hold is a further proof of this trend.

I own several condos and i don't rent them out nor do i plan to sell them.

Corrrect I know a couple of Thais with big businesses they just buy them and do nothing they stay empty, one even lets his emloyees use it and charges them nothing I know because Ive stayed in them.

,,

[klikster]

Remember, all this vitriol stemmed from Irene's so called "bias" towards assets with good access to the BTS, because she has some.

If my experience in trying to find a low priced (up to Bt 10,000) serviced apartment is any indication, her decision is probably a money maker. I wanted a place around the Ratchada/Lad Phrao area. My Thai friend's son drove me around for 2 days. We followed every lead available. No vacancies .. except in the building near the Traveller Hotel with the gay night club ..

I would guess that Japanese might be even more eager to find housing near BTS stations.

Edited April 1, 2008 by klikster

[MJo]

Why the hel_l would anyone in their right mind tell the world the best place to invest? I;LL KEEP IT TO MYSELF THANKS, I think Irene sometimes gives too much helpful info out. Get off your backside and do your own research.

Gee, so if i target to rent for Japanese expats i should not be buying from Khlong Toey slums ? Back to the drawing board...

Sure it's no trade secret that the closer to CDB and public transport you are the better you do in terms of finding tenants and getting good price. Not only in BKK but i believe it's the same in any city in a world...

Personally I would not invest in a single property that i would not want to live in myself, meaning it has to be within walking distance from BTS and by walking distance i mean less than 100 mts in BKK.

But i hope Irene will stay with us, she has given good advice and frankly i'm surprised to see the personal attacks going on here.

It is clear some do not think highly of flippers and yes it is a problem for people who want to buy to themselfs to live in when market is too hot. Flippers reserve all units off plan and average joe is sometimes forced to buy from them with premium if he wants to get one. But that's how market works sometimes. If you can't live with it you always have the option not to buy from these flippers and keep searching for something else!

[lardy]

Why the hel_l would anyone in their right mind tell the world the best place to invest? I;LL KEEP IT TO MYSELF THANKS, I think Irene sometimes gives too much helpful info out. Get off your backside and do your own research.

Gee, so if i target to rent for Japanese expats i should not be buying from Khlong Toey slums ? Back to the drawing board...

Sure it's no trade secret that the closer to CDB and public transport you are the better you do in terms of finding tenants and getting good price. Not only in BKK but i believe it's the same in any city in a world...

Personally I would not invest in a single property that i would not want to live in myself, meaning it has to be within walking distance from BTS and by walking distance i mean less than 100 mts in BKK.

But i hope Irene will stay with us, she has given good advice and frankly i'm surprised to see the personal attacks going on here.

It is clear some do not think highly of flippers and yes it is a problem for people who want to buy to themselfs to live in when market is too hot. Flippers reserve all units off plan and average joe is sometimes forced to buy from them with premium if he wants to get one. But that's how market works sometimes. If you can't live with it you always have the option not to buy from these flippers and keep searching for something else!

Im not in the CBD im not 100 metres from a BTS more like 600, I have never had a Japanese customer.

Choosing condos on what "you" would personally want to live in may not be a good idea , you need to look at what a particular market wants and keep your personal tastes out of it.

[MJo]

Im not in the CBD im not 100 metres from a BTS more like 600, I have never had a Japanese customer.

Choosing condos on what "you" would personally want to live in may not be a good idea , you need to look at what a particular market wants and keep your personal tastes out of it.

Fully agree, strickly business it should be.

But in my case i am in many ways the average joe in this particular market i and propably most of us, have been targeting. Expat send to work here by foreign corporation with housing allowance who wants to get to work and around the town fast meaning wants central location and BTS/MRT access close by.

This has worked well elsewhere including europe and i believe it will work here in Thailand as well. Have to admid though that i haven't jumped in to Thai market yet as i believe the market is too hot right now and my crystal ball is getting bit hazy now days so not sure which way this will go in next 12 to 24 months.

Edited April 2, 2008 by MJo

[YoungFarang13]

my lease just finished on a 27K/moth 65m2 room on sala daeng which was a minute or so to bts sala daeng and mrt. the land lord had called me up and without even asking if i was extending the lease offered me a 3k/month discount. apparently a ton of the renters in the building have decided not to renew their leases. i was already set on moving.

[quiksilva]

Interesting but it has nothing to do with the US housing bubble, it is a factor of too much supply.

I was just speaking with a friend in the residential agency business earlier today who informed me that there is indeed a growing pressure on rents, and that the landlords who offer units with best finishings are attracting the most tenants.

He mentioned that there seems to be many new investors who have mortgaged their units and are not of the old breed of wealthy property investor who could afford to let things slide (although they are still active) and thus are happy to offer competitive rental terms, however he hasn't seen that trend cross over to prices yet.

I found this to be interesting as it tallied with my earlier predictions about the global problem of weight of money compressing yields. It looks like it happening.

[Tudo]

Boy the USA is taking it up the behind right now .

The only ones who would disagree with you are upper level places in NYC ( they are next ) and Lawrence Yun ( Chief "economist" of National Association of Realtors ). Let's see how he's done so far with his propaganda, er, market updates shall we?

NAR

They are building 3,000 sq ft houses near here on the west coast of Florida for $70/sq ft INCLUDING a quarter acre of land. Sales are slooooooooooow even at that price. It's a meltdown. We've been looking to buy a larger home as well as do a little traveling but our business runs counter to the dollar for the most part.

This is a global problem. If one starts factoring in a 9 Trillion dollar debt in the US, along with 40-60 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities in the US alone with the first of 70 million baby boomers in the US starting to collect socialist security and medicare backed by a printing press , the immediate future doesn't look good for positive cash flow at all. This is starting to add to the worlds real estate bubble phenomenon.

Has the market ever come back in Japan?

Edited April 10, 2008 by Tudo