Impending World Wide Economic Depression,

[misterman21]

It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford

[jaideeguy]

Fear factor!!! I'm sorry, but i don't/won't buy into that scenario. IF the worse case scenario does happen and the Thai economy does collapse along with the rest of the world [or separately, on it's own], I feel that in my mooban that the people will politely ask before they steal. That's the Thai way and that's why I choose to live here.

And, I will give what I can afford to give.......as always.

[PeaceBlondie]

Just this morning, I went outside and looked up. The sky was not falling.

[misterman21]

Just this morning, I went outside and looked up. The sky was not falling.

Probably better off to research what the experts think and look at trends i.e. gold at $1024 per ounce:; oil at $112 per barrel; financial institutions in dire straits; US debt unprecidented at $$$$trillions; US$ being dumped; - i wont go on!

But remember that the sky falling in is not a good way to forecast the economic reality! As a pesimist i bought gold 18 months ago at $450 per ounce - must have been paraniod or followed the wrong advice i guess

Edited March 19, 2008 by misterman21

[AlexLah]

Just this morning, I went outside and looked up. The sky was not falling.

Please get out of your cave!

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23595944

[misterman21]

Just a couple of news items relating to world financial prospects:

1) UK facing worst financial crisis 'in decades'

By Gordon Rayner, Chief Reporter

Last Updated: 12:10am GMT 19/03/2008

The financial crisis engulfing the British economy has lurched to a new low as £51 billion was wiped off the value of the country's top companies yesterday.

2) Dollar Destroyed

Expert investor Jim Rogers has slammed the Federal Reserve for destroying the dollar in order to rescue Wall Street, calling it "outrageous" that Ben Bernanke used $230 billion of taxpayers money to bail out Bear Stearns and other banks last week, and urged people to shift their assets completely out of dollars because the Fed had "given up" on the greenback.

"I find it outrageous that the Federal Reserve is just throwing the dollar out of the window - I happen to be an American citizen and they're signaling to the whole world that they have given up on the dollar," said Rogers during an appearance on Bloomberg, adding that everyone should "get out of the dollar because the Fed has given up."

Rogers himself shifted nearly all of his dollar assets into Chinese yuan in October 2007, citing the fact that it was "The official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency."

Edited March 19, 2008 by misterman21

[GuestHouse]

So, please elaborate GH....do you think they will be after our blood or what few $$$'s we still bring into the Kingdom?

Thais love to blame, but they still have their hand out and why would they kill the geese that are still laying golden eggs??

OK .... Since you are near begging for my attention...

You are first of all basing your own statements on the idea that Thais a) need to put their hand out to foreigners for cash that those that do put their hand out do so in a spirit of gratitude and c) that the small minority that do put their hand out are representative of Thais in general. A third assumption implicit in what you say, but probably something you've not thought about, is the assumption than under the stress of a large scale financial crisis in Thailand, Thai attitudes and behaviour would remain as you perceive it to be.

I say you are wrong on all fronts.

First of all there exists in Thailand a level of resentment towards foreigners - Why would they not be?

I don't know how long you have been in Thailand, my own experience of Thailand goes back to when the vast majority of foreigners in Thailand came for two reasons: To take a holiday, sometimes extended, or in a small number of cases to work. There at the time of my first arrival in Thailand very few foreigners moving to Thailand to live, buy houses and condos etc.

That has changed remarkably - and with the change we have expat ghettos, expats dominating areas and markets - And with that we have resentment.

We can argue about the sources of this resentment, but what is for sure is Nationalism plays a significant part and has done since the economic crash Thailand went through in the mid 90s (Take very good note of that).

Take note too that the nationalists within Thai politics have learned that blaming Johnny foreigner is an easy get out - This was at a peak during the last economic crash and I see no reason to believe it would not reoccur.

Now you can comfort yourself with the idea that you can buy acceptance with your largesse, I have a less condisending view of Thais. I see them as proud people, proud of their nation, their culture and the life they live. Alongside of them is an increasing number of foreigners, with cash to spend, getting the cars, getting the houses (and the land?!) getting the women.

Tolerable perhaps where most Thais are doing quite well these days - but when people loose jobs, when debts can't be paid, cars and homes are lost - THINGS CHANGE - .... EVERYWHERE.

That knowledge and a knowledge of just how nationalist Thais and Thai politics is suggest to me that an economic crash in Thailand would almost certainly give rise to a backlash against foreigners.

I does everywhere else on the planet... why do you think Thailand is different?

Edited March 19, 2008 by GuestHouse

[misterman21]

So, please elaborate GH....do you think they will be after our blood or what few $$$'s we still bring into the Kingdom?

Thais love to blame, but they still have their hand out and why would they kill the geese that are still laying golden eggs??

OK .... Since you are near begging for my attention...

You are first of all basing your own statements on the idea that Thais a) need to put their hand out to foreigners for cash that those that do put their hand out do so in a spirit of gratitude and c) that the small minority that do put their hand out are representative of Thais in general. A third assumption implicit in what you say, but probably something you've not thought about, is the assumption than under the stress of a large scale financial crisis in Thailand, Thai attitudes and behaviour would remain as you perceive it to be.

I say you are wrong on all fronts.

First of all there exists in Thailand a level of resentment towards foreigners - Why would they not be?

I don't know how long you have been in Thailand, my own experience of Thailand goes back to when the vast majority of foreigners in Thailand came for two reasons: To take a holiday, sometimes extended, or in a small number of cases to work. There at the time of my first arrival in Thailand very few foreigners moving to Thailand to live, buy houses and condos etc.

That has changed remarkably - and with the change we have expat ghettos, expats dominating areas and markets - And with that we have resentment.

We can argue about the sources of this resentment, but what is for sure is Nationalism plays a significant part and has done since the economic crash Thailand went through in the mid 90s (Take very good note of that).

Take note too that the nationalists within Thai politics have learned that blaming Johnny foreigner is an easy get out - This was at a peak during the last economic crash and I see no reason to believe it would not reoccur.

Now you can comfort yourself with the idea that you can buy acceptance with your largesse, I have a less condisending view of Thais. I see them as proud people, proud of their nation, their culture and the life they live. Alongside of them is an increasing number of foreigners, with cash to spend, getting the cars, getting the houses (and the land?!) getting the women.

Tolerable perhaps where most Thais are doing quite well these days - but when people loose jobs, when debts can't be paid, cars and homes are lost - THINGS CHANGE - .... EVERYWHERE.

That knowledge and a knowledge of just how nationalist Thais and Thai politics is suggest to me that an economic crash in Thailand would almost certainly give rise to a backlash against foreigners.

I does everywhere else on the planet... why do you think Thailand is different?

Very well put Mr Guesthouse. However, the same suspects living in caves and lah lah land will become very confused and even angry when they are forced to view life outside thier comfort zone - and soon start shooting messangers!

[misterman21]

Another disturbing snippet of news:

Tuesday, March 18, 2008 (Reuters)The U.S. dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are turning away tourists seeking to sell their dollars for local money while on vacation in the Netherlands

[AlexLah]

Yes!!

Go here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080317/bs_nm/dollar_dc_1

Stay in your cave na.

[howtoescape]

The Uk are still creating jobs -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7304330.stm

Am i correct in thinking this is the same scenrio in the US?

Economists have predicted 13 of the last 2 recessions.

[misterman21]

The Uk are still creating jobs -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7304330.stm

Am i correct in thinking this is the same scenrio in the US?

Economists have predicted 13 of the last 2 recessions.

No need to predict what is current - open just one eye!

[realmadrid25]

Whenever there is an economic slowdown, people panic. "Omg, US housing is crashing." Yes, it crashed as long as you don't take into account the fact that it made huge monumental gains before the decline. Its like complaining that a stock you own that has tripled since 2000 lost 25%. Omg, 25% in just a quarter, can you believe it? People always think short term. It goes from "buy buy buy you can't lose" (just read the Thai real estate forum on TV) to "buy up farm land so you can atleast be able to afford rice".

Edited March 19, 2008 by realmadrid25

[realmadrid25]

"That knowledge and a knowledge of just how nationalist Thais and Thai politics is suggest to me that an economic crash in Thailand would almost certainly give rise to a backlash against foreigners."

backlash how?

[usatrader]

An Opined Observation.

Despair is like a narcotic. It is a view that lulls the mind in fear’s illusions, the soul to destitution and reality towards disorientation on a road to apathy’s aptitude.

A man who sits on the shore in fearful despair looking to the horizon, with the binoculars of the Pom Pom media, for the possibility of a tsunami, is seldom prepared for it, when and if, in its rarity, it comes, than those, who, in the wisdom of prudence preparation, take to the high ground, in self interest and preservation, living life happily to its fullest everyday knowing they have done all a wise and prudent person can to effect that which they are powerless to prevent in the first place.- Trader

[realmadrid25]

I think its important to realize that it has been a deliberate plan by the powers that be to pound the USD. Its not like they can't change directions if they wanted to. The truth is that while a weak USD is the end of the world for expats in Thailand, it hardly affects the majority of Americans.

I do have to admit that as an American, its awesome the way we run and control the world. Iraq has the second most oil. Boom, take it like its the board game RISK. Nobody can do anything to stop us. We run the show, etc.

Edited March 19, 2008 by realmadrid25

[GuestHouse]

Take a look at the numerous instances of backlashes against foreigners elsewhere in the world and use that as a guide.

Unless of course you are living under the delusion that Thais are not human with all the failings of the rest of humanity.

[misterman21]

I think its important to realize that it has been a deliberate plan by the powers that be to pound the USD. Its not like they can't change directions if they wanted to. The truth is that while a weak USD is the end of the world for expats in Thailand, it hardly affects the majority of Americans.

I do have to admit that as an American, its awesome the way we run and control the world. Iraq has the second most oil. Boom, take it like its the board game RISK. Nobody can do anything to stop us. We run the show, etc.

As a none american i find it rather disturbing - not awsome. And to believe that the destruction of the US dollar 'hardly affects the majority of americans' is unbelievable.

Also if your just an average american you have no say in the running of the show

[Spee]

any other thoughts on how to survive a depression here in LOS??

or am I just being paranoid??

It sounds like you're way way paranoid. There are only a few things you as an individual can do, the main things being staying out of debt and investing with as much diversity and wisdom as possible.

As far as the 1929 US crash and subsequent depression goes, it happened because The Fed failed to act, i.e., the government didn't act when it needed to.

As far as the current problems go, they are the result of too much government intervention, first making laws to force creditors to grant credit to people who don't deserve it, and second by printing money which will do nothing but devalue currency and increase inflation.

Instead, they should let the market rule and let businesses succeed or fail on their own merits. Contrary to popular opinion and political rhetoric, there is economic opportunity in failure, too.

So what's the moral of the story? Don't count on any government for anything! Count on yourself. If you get a piece of what the government says you are due, then it should be a bonus, not a must have for basic survival.

Now, I'll get off my Speakers' Corner soapbox and say some things from real life. One of my brothers and I have talked about these things and having enough money or being very wealthy in old age, etc., and we have different viewpoints.

He is scrimping and saving and investing wisely and doing very well for himself. And why not? he works very hard and makes many sacrifices to get where he wants to be. Many would wish for at retirement what he has achieved as a young man. He does it because he wants to retire young and live a posh lifestyle. Good for him.

I am also saving like crazy, but more so because I started later in life and need to catch up in order to live comfortably in my retirement years. And why not? I work hard and sacrifice now for a chance at something better later. Good for me.

But here is where he & I differ. I'm not sure that he could be as happy in life with less money as he would with more, or at least a level that is near to his expectations for the creature comforts. On the other hand, I have relatively modest expectations and don't need so many material things to be content. I've been poor before and I've live comfortably before. But I try to live and plan my life so that I can be happy and try to live a contented life whether I have a large amount of money or a more modest amount.

So the moral of my story is try to do the best according to your own expectations. You're generally not going to have any control over what governments do. Set your expectations. Work as hard as you want to in order to get what makes you happy. Try to do the best you can to save and invest to meet your expectations. And let the chips fall where they may. Just don't count on any government teats to be full of milk when you're a geezer.

[Ijustwannateach]

To answer the OP, some of us will be earning in baht & keeping any investments we make far, far away from the USD... and in the worst case, I have my cardboard box, my "Will Teach For Food" signs, and the knowledge that in Thailand food does indeed grow on trees....

[Prakanong]

I think its important to realize that it has been a deliberate plan by the powers that be to pound the USD. Its not like they can't change directions if they wanted to. The truth is that while a weak USD is the end of the world for expats in Thailand, it hardly affects the majority of Americans.

I do have to admit that as an American, its awesome the way we run and control the world. Iraq has the second most oil. Boom, take it like its the board game RISK. Nobody can do anything to stop us. We run the show, etc.

Dream on - when Iraq has cost you 3 trillion dollars and you have scuttled away like you did in viwetnam economic historians in the future will look at this period as a watershed.

just like 1870 was for Britain - the time you started losing the lead. Of course the USa will still be the worlds biggest economy for a fw decades yet but there will be a lot of losers in the USA in the run up - think outsourcing and offshoring more - if you are in the USA and not involved in some occupation where you have to "Be there" like plumber or Dr and not in the knowledge business things might start to get a lot tougher.

ever mind though - you can always fry burgers at MickeD's

[Prakanong]

"As far as the 1929 US crash and subsequent depression goes, it happened because The Fed failed to act, i.e., the government didn't act when it needed to."

"Instead, they should let the market rule and let businesses succeed or fail on their own merits."

Which is it then?

Should the govt including the Fed act or should they let the market sort it out

BTW: there is no such thing as the free market - all markets are regulated it just depends on the extent and neo-liberal rhetoric often become laughable hypocritical in time like this when asking for bail outs.

[Scott]

I have to agree with GH. When the economy gets bad, the first thing to suffer is foreigners. In the states, the first thing you hear when the economy starts to tank is about illegal immigration. When the economy is expanding they are basically welcomed with open arms. When it gets bad, they are the cause of every problem from unemployment to disease.

Many Thai people have had a deep resentment of foreigners and their money. Neighbors may be nice, but becareful where you walk because the Land of Smiles isn't smiling as much anymore. Add to that the nationalism and you can get a very uneasy feeling.

Take a look at the Burmese and how they are treated--and they are easy to treat badly--no support from their home country and few reprecussions. Now, look at the immigration policy and how it's being enforced and getting stricter. You are welcome to come and spend a lot of money for a month and then go home--that's the attitude.

Money can buy a lot, but it can't buy acceptance.

[distortedlink]

When I decided to leave the UK for a new life in Thailand, I came well prepared for financial eventualities that will inadvertently happen.

I planned my income on the baht being 40 baht = £1 and anymore is a bonus, plus brought over enough savings to last a few years until the exchange rates improve again, if they should drop low.

Also have another financial plan to be paid in the next 10 years for when inflation swallows up the income I have now.

For those who don't properly plan their long term residence in Thailand and come over thinking that present day costs wont increase and exchange rates will remain the same as the day they arrive in Thailand, should think again before committing over here and save themselves a lot of stress and bother.

Edited March 20, 2008 by distortedlink

[jaideeguy]

Sorry to disagree with GH and other pessimists, but I think that IF 'the s**t hits the fan' with local and world wide inflation the Thais [and other third world] countries will fare better than the developed nations that caused this to happen.

Sure, a lot of working Thais will loose their houses, cars and jobs, but LOS has been self sufficient until this last decade and they can and will simply go with the flow and [more easily than us] return to their old values of family unity and living off the land. Much harder and probably impossible for the developed nations that depend heavily on welfare, imports, debt etc. ....they have a lot more to loose.

Also, the Buddhist values will keep them in check.

I have not only a lot of $'s invested here, and my Thai family that i won't leave unless forced to by immigration. I am already tightening the purse strings and spending much less, but not suffering too much. We now only hit the superstores once a week when before we hit them 3x a week. Finding that local markets are 1/5th the cost of tesco and fresher.

[britmaveric]

Well just pure fear is driving the market - vicious cycle and not lot anyone can do about it.

[Pakboong]

"As far as the 1929 US crash and subsequent depression goes, it happened because The Fed failed to act, i.e., the government didn't act when it needed to."

"Instead, they should let the market rule and let businesses succeed or fail on their own merits."

Which is it then?

Should the govt including the Fed act or should they let the market sort it out

BTW: there is no such thing as the free market - all markets are regulated it just depends on the extent and neo-liberal rhetoric often become laughable hypocritical in time like this when asking for bail outs.

The Fed is not a government agency. The chairmen is appointed by the President from a list of names provided by the bankers themselves. The Fed is a bank with a profit motive.

[Prakanong]

"As far as the 1929 US crash and subsequent depression goes, it happened because The Fed failed to act, i.e., the government didn't act when it needed to."

"Instead, they should let the market rule and let businesses succeed or fail on their own merits."

Which is it then?

Should the govt including the Fed act or should they let the market sort it out

BTW: there is no such thing as the free market - all markets are regulated it just depends on the extent and neo-liberal rhetoric often become laughable hypocritical in time like this when asking for bail outs.

The Fed is not a government agency. The chairmen is appointed by the President from a list of names provided by the bankers themselves. The Fed is a bank with a profit motive.

Oh please spare me the theory

[Naam]

I have to agree with GH. When the economy gets bad, the first thing to suffer is foreigners. In the states, the first thing you hear when the economy starts to tank is about illegal immigration. When the economy is expanding they are basically welcomed with open arms. When it gets bad, they are the cause of every problem from unemployment to disease.

Many Thai people have had a deep resentment of foreigners and their money. Neighbors may be nice, but becareful where you walk because the Land of Smiles isn't smiling as much anymore. Add to that the nationalism and you can get a very uneasy feeling.

Take a look at the Burmese and how they are treated--and they are easy to treat badly--no support from their home country and few reprecussions. Now, look at the immigration policy and how it's being enforced and getting stricter. You are welcome to come and spend a lot of money for a month and then go home--that's the attitude.

Money can buy a lot, but it can't buy acceptance.

there is a big flaw in your theory. we Farangs did not come illegally and empty handed wading through the Rio Grande or via the borderS from Burma, Laos or Cambodia. we brought and are still bringing loads of cash into the country (well... most of us) and our cash is during an economic depression even more welcome than before.

repeating the old but false mantra of disgruntled Farangs "You are welcome to come and spend a lot of money for a month and then go home" doesn't make it true! it's just boring to death. YAAWWWWNNNNN....

[Naam]

I think its important to realize that it has been a deliberate plan by the powers that be to pound the USD. Its not like they can't change directions if they wanted to. The truth is that while a weak USD is the end of the world for expats in Thailand, it hardly affects the majority of Americans.

what a load of BS! do all expats have all their eggs in the USD basket? and if you mean american expats only will all of them have to leave because of the weak USD?