Gloomy Days Ahead For Asia's Housing Markets

[think_too_mut]

Real estate prices and values also rise over time just like all things, so long as they are kept in good condition. If this was not true we could all buy pints of beer for 5p, but alas this is not how the world works.

No shit, Sherlock? Yes that right no shit. I know it bores me to point out the blindingly obvious too but it seems I have no choice sometimes

How did Japanese properties declined as much as 80% and the US and the UK are declining at double digits quarter after quarter? So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?

If you are you being serious then it sounds like its not me who has the rose tinted glasses on, quite the opposite.

As for noone thinking values will decline, speak for yourself, I have never head such utter rubbish. Sunrise hit the nail on the head just like all investment classes, property values fluctuate over time, history has taught us this. The extent of the decline will be affected by the global economic climate insofar as that will affect domestic economies. Again: over the long term the value of economies grow, prices rise, and so does real estate/ Of course there exceptions Zimbabwe, Iraq, Sierra Leon spring to mind, cookies if you can guess why!

The reason why the UK is badly affected by the recent meltdown of the USA is because 30% of UK GDP is derived from the financial services industry. We can say then, that the UK is tied in to global affairs much more closely than say, Thailand (no surprise there) so it should also not be of a surprise to learn that Thailand will not be as affected by this current climate as say, the UK, for example.

They are already free. FREE!!!

Some US homes worth less than their copper pipes

Shards of broken glass outside the basement window of 31 Vine Street hint at the destruction inside the three-story home.

Thieves smashed the window to break in and then gutted the property for its copper pipes – a crime that has spread across the United States as the economy slows and foreclosed homes stand empty and vulnerable.

Some homes worth less than their copper pipes

[zorro1]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

[think_too_mut]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

[Heng]

So the thieves got some copper pipe out a derelict house... so the conclusion is that the land value is the same as the copper pipe? If the owner just paid his home off or purchased with cash, he wouldn't have a negative value home.

I've had dirt and barbed wire stolen from some of my far out properties as well. Hope that's not how they do the valuations these days.

[Ubon9]

inflation sure is powerful but then reality sets in and the denial can no longer mask reality, dont get emotionally involved with 4 walls and plaster

anyway, to the dreamers (aka homedebtors) and realists, holding wheat, gold and oil (which are all easier to sell investments (unlike overbuilt Thai housing)) would have given you a better rate of return.....

oversupply of housing ....check

poor construction of housing....check

property loan defaults rising....check

loose property lending standards.....check

out of contol inflation.....check

builder complaints rising.....check

BOT holding rates steady and more likely to raise rates to stem inflation (rather than cut)......check

Gloomy Days Ahead for Asia's Housing Markets

Wheat was up 160% in March 2008 on a year earlier; soy bean oil by 104%, corn by 37%, and sugar by 26%.

The housing markets most likely to be affected by monetary tightening seem to be China, India, Singapore, Philippines and Thailand, which have experienced the largest increases in inflation.

http://theseoultimes.com/ST/?url=/ST/db/read.php?idx=6482

It's very clear from your constant anti-Thailand rants that you view buying a house or condo in Thailand as an investment? If that's truly the case, your finances must really be in terrible shape.

Maybe if you were a bit smarter you'd have enough money to just buy properties that take your fancy with cash, instead of whining like a bitter foreigner in every post you make.

I tink you really spotted on,Hoping for a crash is a really out of the way.Bangkok is set to became the financial center for south east asia,property price they are going up and they will not stop for the next 5 years.What the foreign country are trtying to do is to increase the value of theyr investment in thailand consequently the cost of living and all the rest will go up,of course this can be a bad new for the chip farang but they can move tu burma for the time being.

[think_too_mut]

If the owner just paid his home off or purchased with cash, he wouldn't have a negative value home.

The owner has probably never seen cash larger than few hundred $, he's more likely a junkie, a street urchin or ex-caravan trailer inhabitant who got 200-300K home loan he can't repay.

The trouble is - several worthless houses in a street drag everyone down and the climate od gloom spreads accross the country...even spills over the rest of the globe...not to the same effect, but still.

[lordofdelusion]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

NOTHING is worth more than someone will pay for it. No buyers, ===== worthless. That's how all markets work. You have to find the right price. As for me now, I am taking a long look at buying property in the US rather than Thailand. Better construction and infrastructure. Government is not as stable however

[Ubon9]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

NOTHING is worth more than someone will pay for it. No buyers, ===== worthless. That's how all markets work. You have to find the right price. As for me now, I am taking a long look at buying property in the US rather than Thailand. Better construction and infrastructure. Government is not as stable however

Yes you can buy property in America, but we don't have to forget that Bangkok is Thailand capital.

and owning your own condo in the long run is a clever move.

[quiksilva]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

I am more familiar with this than you might think. I worked in the UK and had distressed assets on my books there too.

I know houses that have been stripped bare, radiators, boilers, windows, piping, even the kitchen sink, all gone. I've seen it happen before. It's nothing new and is certainly not unique to the USA.

Please don't take headlines at face value, and spout them as gospel. There is much more to this than a simple column written by a layman.

Where does it say that houses are worth less than copper pipes, exactly? In your example the bank only knocked 5,000 $ of the value of a 105,000 $ home, for the damage caused. How can that be, you are telling me that it must be free. What's going on? The land, according to you, has no inherent value...??

Sure they also mention that some properties traded at 100$ a piece but what they dont mention there is that this happens usually when a buyer takes on debt obligations.

Ask yourself, why would they do that? To live there?? LOL

[think_too_mut]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

I am more familiar with this than you might think. I worked in the UK and had distressed assets on my books there too.

I know houses that have been stripped bare, radiators, boilers, windows, piping, even the kitchen sink, all gone. I've seen it happen before. It's nothing new and is certainly not unique to the USA.

Please don't take headlines at face value, and spout them as gospel. There is much more to this than a simple column written by a layman.

Where does it say that houses are worth less than copper pipes, exactly? In your example the bank only knocked 5,000 $ of the value of a 105,000 $ home, for the damage caused. How can that be, you are telling me that it must be free. What's going on? The land, according to you, has no inherent value...??

Sure they also mention that some properties traded at 100$ a piece but what they dont mention there is that this happens usually when a buyer takes on debt obligations.

Ask yourself, why would they do that? To live there?? LOL

Just to repeat what you wrote, from your knowledgeable hights:

No shit, Sherlock? Yes that right no shit. I know it bores me to point out the blindingly obvious too but it seems I have no choice sometimes

How did Japanese properties declined as much as 80% and the US and the UK are declining at double digits quarter after quarter? So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?

Write a letter to the editor, argue with him instead with the board.

For me, the article people have names and contacts and responsibility for what they say and write, not an anonymous who-knows-who on the net.

[quiksilva]

I'm not anonymous, check my profile.

I took an alias when I first I came here to gather information that I needed for myself, as a fellow expat. This site has a wealth of good information on all manner of topics. The information I have found on TV has been valuable to me, so I post here to contribute to discussions in what I hope is a meaningful way, as my way of giving back.

I try to present a balanced point of view and do not actively promote myself or my firm, but of course if people want to contact me IRL they are welcome.

Edited May 12, 2008 by quiksilva

[think_too_mut]

I'm not anonymous, check my profile.

I took an alias when I first I came here to gather information that I needed for myself, as a fellow expat. This site has a wealth of good information on all manner of topics. The information I have found on TV has been valuable to me, so I post here to contribute to discussions in what I hope is a meaningful way, as my way of giving back.

I try to present a balanced point of view and do not actively promote myself or my firm, but of course if people want to contact me IRL they are welcome.

I have read many of your posts but now you were so adamant that house values can not be trashed significantly or totally wiped out were isolated from what the press has been reporting over last several months, even amateurs were aware of that.

Here is more, from Australia where there is no such dependence on Financial industry as in the UK, it is happening there too:

House bubble bursts, but whose fault is it?

By Nick Gardner and Andrew Carswell

May 12, 2008 07:00am

Houses sold for six-figure losses

Is is rates pain or foolish buyers?

HOUSE prices in some parts of Sydney have almost halved as battling borrowers struggle to keep up with increasing interest rates.

Rising interest rates, both from the Reserve Bank and those imposed independently by the banks, have been blamed for tipping the market over the edge and "pricking the house-price bubble".

Property auction clearances remained flat over the weekend too, with rates slipping below 50 per cent in Sydney and Brisbane.

But property researchers have said some people have simply paid too much for their homes and other buyers are refusing to repeat their mistakes.

The falls - in Sydney's west, the Hills district, and Sutherland Shire - are far steeper than previously thought, and show the devastating effects of the RBA's rate-hiking spree.

In the past six months, 30 homes across Sydney have been sold for at least $100,000 less than was paid at the height of the property boom, many as a result of distressed mortgagee sales.

One property in Bankstown, in the city's southwest, bought for $500,000 in August 2005 sold in February for $215,000. Several other properties in Sydney's west have recently been sold for losses of more than 30 per cent.

Sutherland Shire, in the southern stretches of the city, was thought to have escaped relatively unscathed but is now having prices plummet.

One property in Oyster Bay, bought for $1.09 million in December 2001, sold in March for $680,000, while a Caringbah apartment bought for $339,000 in June 2004 was sold for a loss of $104,000 last October.

The worst affected suburb was Parramatta, on Sydney's western outskirts, with 11 homes sold at a loss in the past six months. Neighbouring Merrylands had 10, while Punchbowl also suffered substantial losses.

The data - complied exclusively for The Daily Telegraph - showed that even the more affluent suburbs are now beginning to suffer. Several homes in Waverley, Coogee and Paddington were sold for losses of more than 25 per cent. The worst hit was the Waverley house bought in July 2003 for $725,000 and sold for $465,000 in March.

And experts predict that the losses will get worse as the year goes on.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, said: "The pain of higher interest rates has only just started to kick in and we will see further falls over the next 6-12 months.

"The Sydney housing market is in a bind - we have a shortage of housing and huge demand but that isn't going to stop prices declining further. I think we'll see prices fall by another 10 per cent this year - and that's without another interest-rate rise.

"If rates rise again it will accelerate the declines, and that's an ominous prospect because price falls can be infectious" Mr Oliver said.

"If one house in a street sells for a lower than expected price, then that can have a knock-on effect to other properties in the same area, and so it goes on."

The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released last week, showed Sydney house prices falling by 1.5 per cent in the March quarter alone - the worst performance of the eight capital cities.

When the RBA decided to leave the cash rate at a 12-year high of 7.25 per cent last week, it hinted that rates might have to rise later this year if inflation kept rising, which would be disastrous for struggling homeowners.

Wrong price

But John Edwards, CEO of Residex, the property research company that compiled the data, said over-exuberance from buyers was also a big factor.

"It is clear that some people just paid the wrong price for a property and that happens a lot," Mr Edwards said.

"In every suburb in Sydney, there will be some properties that will have lost value because in every place in Australia there will some foolish person who paid too much for a property."

Aussie Homeloans boss John Symond, admits to advising first homebuyers to look for mortgagee sales in order to buy an affordable property.

"You've got to be smart in today's market," Mr Symond said.

"Prices are so high that many people will never own their own home, so you've got to be creative.

"There's a great opportunity to buy properties at distressed rates. If you can't afford to live in them right now you can rent them out. Then, over time, you should get some capital growth and a foot in the door."

[shochu]

quiksilver,

since your in the biz, you of all people should know that housing is only a good investment over the short cycles and over long term cycles - is not a good investment - however this is irrelavent if you are buying a place to live in - to call home.

you would also know that a very well known american economist who has done many studies re: housing - an ivy league prof. (won't bore you with his name since you should know who he is) has written extensively on this very subject and has done studies to the conclusion that factoring in inflation, maintenance, taxes, etc. that a home loses value over the long term. What most people hope for is to get in when the price has bottomed and try to sell after they have raised a family and can remove some equity for retirement. they also use it as a piggy bank to force themselves to pay the payments instead of spending the cash. this is geenrally a win win situation if things go as well as they did during out parents generation - HOWEVER - that was then - and this is NOW.

you should also know that economists have done extensive studies and have concluded to the contrary of what many people believe - that owning is always better than renting - is in fact not true and really dependent on each individual and their circumstances and where they live.

Re: japan - will they ever reach their highs during this generation or the next? Housing there is beyond the average income to the point where housing is payed off over several generations where the kids take over paying the banks. forget the 30, or 40 year mortgages.

a market can be easily judged by viewing the local average worker and their ability or inability to purchase housing. I feel that the bangkok housing market has reached beyond this point as it has in many places around the world. However, i don't think it is as bad here as japan was, or other places currently are.

cycles always occur - but when the big one (not in one lifetime BUT over several generations occur) comes and busts - then I think it will be a long, long time before it is a good investment. when you consider inflation and cost of living to salaries - then I think it will be a long time before we see the right conditions again. and with this massive building boom with hugely overbuilt conditons everywhere and the continuing slowdown - well i think you are in the wrong business.

P.S. - ask yourself what i have to gain by giving wrong info. - absolutley nothing. HOWEVER I would think it dificult for someone in the business to say anything negative about their source of income!

P.P.S. - I do like thailand an awful lot and that is why I come here regularly - BUT - I also feel I have a duty to tell the truth - the way I see things - so that perhaps some can benefit. if you don't agree with me - that's fine too - but it is overtly obvious when people are flogging their trade !!

[quiksilva]

What I am 'adamantly' stating is that property values fluctuate. They can go down, but they will rise again too, in all but the most extreme cases.

When purchasing real estate it is only prudent to take a long term view. The way some speak it seems as though, they are only ever looking for a short term play: get in while the market is going up and out again before it goes back down. Fine, thats all well and good but take a short term view at your peril.

Timed correctly short term plays in property can afford huge returns in a booming market. But this strategy brings with it great risks too. If, for instance you brought a property recently with only a 5 year investment horizon (or less), you are most likely going to lose money, or at the very least face a difficult exit. So if you are late to the party and the market tanks its going to be bad news.

I am not advocating a long term view just to see capital appreciation (although that happens) but also so that buyers can learn to anticipate and prepare for downward cycles. You need to be sure that you can ride out the storms ahead, because history has taught us time and time again that these cycles are real.

This is especially important if you are leveraging your acquisition. You need to prepare for the fact that interest rates could double at some point during your payback term. It happens, but they do retreat again. Buying the best property you can afford is important but you have to be smart about it and you should never stretch yourself. As with all investments timing buying and selling decisions within the cycles is critical. However because land and property have an intrinsic value you can take a long term view and their values will, generally, improve.

Shochu: I won't pretend to have read every study ever written about the industry I have not but I do keep up to date with current opinions in the industry and my views are echoed by the vast majority. However I'm always interested to read new papers. However, perhaps someone should inform the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, so that international best practice methods for valuation can be adopted.

As for supposed conflicted interests, I have mentioned this in these forums before. I operate almost exclusively in the commercial and industrial sectors, so personally I have nothing to gain from decisions on whether you opt to buy or rent residential property or not.

EDIT: Here's some links for further reading, which I trust will be interesting:

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...e-Cycles-Matter

How to spot a bubble: four yard sticks

cycle_methodology.pdf

Edited May 12, 2008 by quiksilva

[quiksilva]

I didnt have time to edit that last message but the pdf file is from PWC its a bit old 1999, but it contains useful information nonetheless.

[shochu]

quicksilva,

when I said - some people were overtly flogging their trade - I was not refering to you - BUT to others on this forum!

although I addressed you initially, I was also directing this to others.

[quiksilva]

Its cool. I just felt that seeing as I am in real estate and I was taking a different point of view to everyone else it was appropriate for me to remind people of my position.

[bingobongo]

i am sorry for all those affected by this tragedy..............but it was even felt in Bangkok, i hope the building specs are up to code if a bigger one hits closer to Bangkok

Tremor from China quake felt in Bangkok

Beijing (dpa) - An earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale hit Wenchuan county in south-western China's Sichuan province Monday, local officials said.

The earthquake struck at 2:28 pm (0628 GMT) and could be felt in cities hundreds of kilometres away, including Beijing, Shanghai and Bangkok.

"Major tremors" were felt by residents of cities closer to the epicentre, including Sichuan's capital, Chengdu, and nearby Chongqing, the official news agency Xinhua said. Those in tall office buildings of Bangkok also reported that their building swayed.

The US Geological Survey measured the quake at 7.5 and said it struck 95 kilometres west-north-west of Chengdu at a depth of 10 kilometres. (dpa)

[bingobongo]

ah, backflip and pkrv........i hope you are doing well

It must be difficult for investors around the country (and around the world) who bought debt-traps that only rent out for a fraction of what it costs to "own".

Negative cash flow on a depreciating condo or house is the worst of both worlds.

[thaigene2]

ah, backflip and pkrv........i hope you are doing well

It must be difficult for investors around the country (and around the world) who bought debt-traps that only rent out for a fraction of what it costs to "own".

Negative cash flow on a depreciating condo or house is the worst of both worlds.

Think both of them plan to enjoy retirement here as opposed to selling/profiting - and just resent the pressure of the downward market, and people like us, who keep raising uncomfortable issues about the reality of things. To me the Visa issue is the biggest item of all, the rest is moribund.

[zorro1]

i am sorry for all those affected by this tragedy..............but it was even felt in Bangkok, i hope the building specs are up to code if a bigger one hits closer to Bangkok

Tremor from China quake felt in Bangkok

Beijing (dpa) - An earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale hit Wenchuan county in south-western China's Sichuan province Monday, local officials said.

The earthquake struck at 2:28 pm (0628 GMT) and could be felt in cities hundreds of kilometres away, including Beijing, Shanghai and Bangkok.

"Major tremors" were felt by residents of cities closer to the epicentre, including Sichuan's capital, Chengdu, and nearby Chongqing, the official news agency Xinhua said. Those in tall office buildings of Bangkok also reported that their building swayed.

The US Geological Survey measured the quake at 7.5 and said it struck 95 kilometres west-north-west of Chengdu at a depth of 10 kilometres. (dpa)

[/quote

Your not sorry at all. Its quite obvious why you have used this angle and your pathetic, a total goose actually

Edited May 13, 2008 by zorro1

[thaigene2]

Just curious, why did you single out "second home markets"

Sorry for two posts in a row - just catching up on old posts..

Answer: Because second homes are discretionary purchases and that's why you've got Danny-the-Lad looking for buyers at Patters-Are-Us Realty - it's an easy job for a no-brainer when times are good cause you're selling to other no-brainers (or to be fair to people caught up in the Holiday Enjoyment Mode).

BUT - when it comes time for the middle-class purchaser like Nigel-the-Nerd to pull in his horns - the discretionary "oops" thing is the first thing that he tries to get rid of. How many here thoguht about buying a place on a holiday in Europe, Carib, Mexico etc? Hands up? So Bobby-the-builder who was doing well before but is now struggling needs to be shot of his Thai places too - and maybe even faster than Nigel-the-Nerd.

If you lost your job, and your mortgage was becoming a problem on your principal residence back home, or with other bills piling up, what would be the first thing you'd shed? Not your kids education or your retirement fund I suspect..Chai Mai?

[donx]

ah, backflip and pkrv........i hope you are doing well

It must be difficult for investors around the country (and around the world) who bought debt-traps that only rent out for a fraction of what it costs to "own".

Negative cash flow on a depreciating condo or house is the worst of both worlds.

Think both of them plan to enjoy retirement here as opposed to selling/profiting - and just resent the pressure of the downward market, and people like us, who keep raising uncomfortable issues about the reality of things. To me the Visa issue is the biggest item of all, the rest is moribund.

Bingobongo refuses to answer my question and prefers discussing natural disasters, which I don't think discriminate between renters and owners in their ability to kill people. Therefore I will have to assume he has absolutely nothing intelligent to say about when to look for the next good buying opportunity (since he claims that right now is not a good time to buy).

As for you, thaigene2, you provide reasonable points of discussion. I am not up to date on the current Visa issues, so if you could explain why this is a serious problem I would appreciate it. Specifically, how does it affect someone like me who is married to a Thai and planning on retiring to Thailand when I am in my 60's? Or how about someone like pkrv who is not married to a Thai but planning on retiring here sometime after the age of 50?

[pkrv]

ah, backflip and pkrv........i hope you are doing well

It must be difficult for investors around the country (and around the world) who bought debt-traps that only rent out for a fraction of what it costs to "own".

Negative cash flow on a depreciating condo or house is the worst of both worlds.

Very well thank you Bingo - Will be flying out again definitely business class but hopefully first class on Qantas (London - Bangkok) in July. We are cheating and have the points to try for an upgrade. Two First Class tickets would be about 8,000 GBP. Normally we fly cattle class - but we would like to fly first class once in our lives so here goes (no guarantees that the upgrade will be available and the business class ticket is expensive 4,400 GBP for the two of us as opposed to 6/700 GBP each).

It is a tragedy on this forum that the cost of a car is significant enough to cause such problems. I have watched quicksilva's posts over many years and deeply appreciate his input to this forum. His responses have always been calm and collected (unlike some others). PALM and Backflip can sometimes be 'caustic', but they are also excellent contributors to this forum

Bingo why do you make up your own graphs and publish them as 'valid independent material'? Whilst Donx and I do not quite see eye to eye his observations on your behaviour on this form match mine precisely.

Edited May 14, 2008 by pkrv

[pkrv]

If I hadn't of read your link I wouldn't have believed it . Only in America....

This comment provoked me to post the link: "So they'll be free at Christmas? If not how low will they drop? Will it be lower than the last cycle or the cycle before that?"

A bit surprising that real estate pros have no clue whatsoever it is not only possible but is really happening that houses become worthless.

I am more familiar with this than you might think. I worked in the UK and had distressed assets on my books there too.

I know houses that have been stripped bare, radiators, boilers, windows, piping, even the kitchen sink, all gone. I've seen it happen before. It's nothing new and is certainly not unique to the USA.

Please don't take headlines at face value, and spout them as gospel. There is much more to this than a simple column written by a layman.

Where does it say that houses are worth less than copper pipes, exactly? In your example the bank only knocked 5,000 $ of the value of a 105,000 $ home, for the damage caused. How can that be, you are telling me that it must be free. What's going on? The land, according to you, has no inherent value...??

Sure they also mention that some properties traded at 100$ a piece but what they dont mention there is that this happens usually when a buyer takes on debt obligations.

Ask yourself, why would they do that? To live there?? LOL

Yep I have seen this too. We bought in Hampstead after taking a huge hit on our first property in Leytonstone. Bought for 65,000 GBP sold for 45,000 GBP (five years later in 1994) and spent cash on a new kitchen and having to extend the lease - A disaster no!

We then bought in Hampstead for about 165,000 GBP now worth god knows how much. However when we were looking we came across a property that had been stripped clean by its original owner. He obviously was so bitter that the bank dared to repossess that he took everything (and probably threw most of it away). Spoilt children do not like it when others understand more about life than they do, after all should they not be kings, they are good after all (just not by any measurable standard).

[bingobongo]

rates will soon climb and buying an overpriced/oversupplied domicile will be a capital trap and similar to........

[teej]

bingo, do you own anything? besides the ragged shirt on your back?

Lots of buyers are cash buyers for residential homes. Like somebody mentioned before, the difference between 10 and 14 million doesn't really matter for high net worth individuals. If you buy a place to live in (retire in), who cares especially when you're paying in petty cash?

Quicksilva, wow I didn't know Sydney was taking so much of a hit.... Hong Kong prices are so firm that I'm looking elsewhere now, and maybe I'll pop over to Sydney Nice weather, etc... 1 million USD buys you a small 2br flat in Central HK, I bet it could buy something rather nice in Sydney...

[Crushdepth]

rates will soon climb and buying an overpriced/oversupplied domicile will be a capital trap and similar to........

Can you suggest an investment that isn't totally doomed then? You are the worst panic merchant on this board.

[thaigene2]

As for you, thaigene2, you provide reasonable points of discussion. I am not up to date on the current Visa issues, so if you could explain why this is a serious problem I would appreciate it. Specifically, how does it affect someone like me who is married to a Thai and planning on retiring to Thailand when I am in my 60's? Or how about someone like pkrv who is not married to a Thai but planning on retiring here sometime after the age of 50?

Well, as I've said before I'm also married to a Thai and we have kids here. So compared to many I 'should' be better off right? The answer is only a qualified 'sort of'. I can get a visa to 'support or visit my family' but am expected to prove income to get a renewal...thing is no one is really sure whether that will change, how it will change, how much income will be required from year to year....it keeps changing - begin to see the picture? Then consider that we are banned from working in most professions or even from owning our own small businesses.

So if a guy like me (and the many others reading this) are only 'sort of' better off, then it raises some pretty big questions about anyone else with no tie whatsover to the Kingdom, except 'they bought a condo' - now if the Thai Govt doesn't give a rat's ass about those of us married to their citizens and fathers of Thai nationals, then how much do you suppose they care about some guy who's bought a 6 or 8 million baht condo and wants to live here year round on a 'retirement visa'? I mean he's ALEADY spent the money right? So who needs him now? For his little weekly spend in the supermarket or a restaurant? Does rich Mr Thai-Chinese politician or mover and shaker care about that? They don't like farangs here in the first place - we intimidate them and if our numbers were to swell, we could challenge them in business. So better to keep us under their thumb so to speak.

Now regarding marriage to a Thai - I mean, I/we can't simply buy and put it in the kids' names (though some lawyers say this seems unclear). I can't have any claim to my wife's property - and neither can you with yours. If you/we were to buy a place in our wife's name - sign away our rights - then break up with them, we/I would have only a shakey case to make to even 'remain' in the country with my kids.

Now as for your question about retirement visa, we are entitled to a retirement visa at 50 (I understand) not there yet myself..But as above, how much confidence do you have that income requirements of 40,000 baht per month won't become 60,000 baht next month and 120,000 baht two years from now? It keeps changing. Can you imagine the absurdity of it all if you spent most of your life savings to buy a condo here - only to find out two years from now that your penion is no longer sufficient to meet the minimum monthly income to get a visa renewed?

I can imagine it..

Edited May 16, 2008 by thaigene2

[donx]

As for you, thaigene2, you provide reasonable points of discussion. I am not up to date on the current Visa issues, so if you could explain why this is a serious problem I would appreciate it. Specifically, how does it affect someone like me who is married to a Thai and planning on retiring to Thailand when I am in my 60's? Or how about someone like pkrv who is not married to a Thai but planning on retiring here sometime after the age of 50?

Well, as I've said before I'm also married to a Thai and we have kids here. So compared to many I 'should' be better off right? The answer is only a qualified 'sort of'. I can get a visa to 'support or visit my family' but am expected to prove income to get a renewal...thing is no one is really sure whether that will change, how it will change, how much income will be required from year to year....it keeps changing - begin to see the picture? Then consider that we are banned from working in most professions or even from owning our own small businesses.

So if a guy like me (and the many others reading this) are only 'sort of' better off, then it raises some pretty big questions about anyone else with no tie whatsover to the Kingdom, except 'they bought a condo' - now if the Thai Govt doesn't give a rat's ass about those of us married to their citizens and fathers of Thai nationals, then how much do you suppose they care about some guy who's bought a 6 or 8 million baht condo and wants to live here year round on a 'retirement visa'? I mean he's ALEADY spent the money right? So who needs him now? For his little weekly spend in the supermarket or a restaurant? Does rich Mr Thai-Chinese politician or mover and shaker care about that? They don't like farangs here in the first place - we intimidate them and if our numbers were to swell, we could challenge them in business. So better to keep us under their thumb so to speak.

Now regarding marriage to a Thai - I mean, I/we can't simply buy and put it in the kids' names (though some lawyers say this seems unclear). I can't have any claim to my wife's property - and neither can you with yours. If you/we were to buy a place in our wife's name - sign away our rights - then break up with them, we/I would have only a shakey case to make to even 'remain' in the country with my kids.

Now as for your question about retirement visa, we are entitled to a retirement visa at 50 (I understand) not there yet myself..But as above, how much confidence do you have that income requirements of 40,000 baht per month won't become 60,000 baht next month and 120,000 baht two years from now? It keeps changing. Can you imagine the absurdity of it all if you spent most of your life savings to buy a condo here - only to find out two years from now that your penion is no longer sufficient to meet the minimum monthly income to get a visa renewed?

I can imagine it..

Thank you thaigene2 for the response. Now for a few comments.

I agree that for those who are under 50 years of age, staying here has become much more difficult. For me, I would have to have a work permit to even consider living in Thailand now. You could set up a Thai company and obtain a work permit, so I'm not sure I agree with your comment regarding not being able to own your own small business. Not having done this nor even looked into doing this, I will let others comment upon who is right in this respect. I do know that Sunbelt Asia sells businesses that allow for a work permit so I know it can be done. If you are referring to a single proprietorship then I agree with you. As a point of comparison, a Thai getting a work permit in the US would be much more difficult than me getting a work permit in Thailand.

In my understanding, anyone over 50 years of age has a significant advantage with regards to the visa situation over anyone that is under the age of 50. The fact that you are only slightly better off than someone who is not married doesn't change this. As I see it, married to a Thai spouse or not is not important once you have reached the age of 50. It is obvious to me that the retirement visa is the best visa available to anyone that is interested in living in Thailand and not planning to work for a living in Thailand.

Why do you say that you can't simply buy and put it in your kid's name? This has been discussed extensively in this forum and the consenus has always been that you can do this. The problem is that when property is in the name of a child, then that property can't be sold until the child is of legal age (somewhere between 18 and 21 years old) unless a court determines that the sale is in the best interest of the child. For me and presumably you, that restriction is enough for us not to even consider this option.

My conclusion from all of this is that I would only recommend buying property in Thailand if you plan on using it as a retirement home for use after you are 50 years old or if you have a work permit and intend on remain working in Thailand for at least four years. Being married to a Thai should only be a consideration for those of us who are comfortable with putting everything into our spouse's name and this is only with respect to owning land since condos can be put in your name.

I agree that those under the age of 50 have definitely been affected by the visa changes. I disagree with your projection into the future that the retirement visas will be significantly more difficult to obtain. I would expect the minimum monthly income requirement to increase over time, but the current requirement of 40,000 per month is still well below what I would consider to be a comfortable monthly income. I plan to have at least 150,000 baht per month income adjusted for inflation in the future. I agree that monthly retirement income needs to be carefully examined prior to investing in property purchases no matter where you plan on buying property.

Again, thank you for your reasonable response.