'Half The Country' Fears Another Coup: Poll

[toptuan]

In a "democracy" the people are stuck with corrupt leaders until they can be voted out,

So you value "efficiency" over "democracy," correct? A dictatorship is a pretty efficient means of ruling also, compared to the time-consuming system of consensus-making and voting required by a democratic system. To each their own, I guess.

and elections can be rigged. Just look at the debacle in Zimbabwe.

Of course. But rarely do you ever get the choice of an "ideal" world in any system. You just try to work with the best system that's available.

Coups do seem to have a place in the Thai political scheme,

Unfortunately. And Thailand suffers terribly from this scheme, both on the world stage and internally. The cost of government instability to the economy, well-being of its people and institutions is incalculable (on the high side). Just a cursory view of Thailand's last 17 coups will bear this out. In fact, Thailand's investment infrastructure is still reeling from some insane, ill-thought-out decrees made by the military government just 3 months into their take-over.

IMO your views are very short-sighted, and only concerned with the "here-and-now"problem of quickly doing away with an undesirable person in office. Your proposed solution (bring in the army and throw them out) is a long-term proposal to a short-term problem. (Like suicide). "Long-term" in the sense of effect on economy, societal institutions, and Thailand's credibility among the nations of the world.

Edited May 13, 2008 by toptuan

[Plus]

The cost of government instability to the economy, well-being of its people and institutions is incalculable (on the high side). Just a cursory view of Thailand's last 17 coups will bear this out.

Perhaps you should look closer. Currently rising prices and the cost of living have far more influence on people's well-being than the last coup. Previous coup was sixteen years ago and had no effect on majority of the population whatsoever.

Thailand's investment infrastructure is still reeling from some insane, ill-thought-out decrees made by the military government just 3 months into their take-over.

Wrong, that decree was the work of the same team that has run country's central bank for six years, generals had nothing to do with it.

A dictatorship is a pretty efficient means of ruling also, compared to the time-consuming system of consensus-making and voting required by a democratic system.

Yeah, but Thai "democratic" governments emulated dictaroships better than generals themselves. They invented equally "efficient" ways to govern by getting rid of all checks and balances on executive power and restricting media freedom. "Consensus making" is exact opposite of how TRT/PPP government operates, which makes it undemocratic in principle, even voting is allowed only where they are certain to win - in Parlament. They are not taking any other issues, beginning with the new constitution, to the people. Or how about signing FTAs without even presenting them in parlament first, as required by law?

They are examples of how NOT to run a democracy, unfortunately they are setting these low standards for millions of people taking interests in politics for the first time.

[Old Man River]

Wrong, that decree was the work of the same team that has run country's central bank for six years, generals had nothing to do with it.

Just so we are all on the same page, exactly what decree are you referring to?

[KireB]

Bush and Cheney can be booted out in a free expression of democracy.

Yeah right Ask Al Gore and a lot of coloured Americans what they think of your comment!

[younghusband]

Bush and Cheney can be booted out in a free expression of democracy.

Yeah right Ask Al Gore and a lot of coloured Americans what they think of your comment!

I think Al Gore (Florida shenanigans notwithstanding) would definitely agree with me.

As a point of detail I would drop the expression of "coloured" if I were you.It tends to be used these days by American racists and English from the lower classes.

[younghusband]

It's the democratically elected Thai leaders who are Burmese best friends. With Samak and Noppadon openly defending them I can't understand how anyone would mention generals at all.

Is it a case of "don't let the facts in the way of a good story"?

And 1932 looked like a coup by all accounts.

Then you are not following matters closely enough.There have been and continue to be very close links between the Thai and Burmese military leadership.

The 1932 coup against absolutism cannot be compared to modern coups.It took place in an age when coups were more common whereas nowadays they are mostly restricted to deadbeat banana republics mostly in the flyblown parts of Africa and Latin America (oh yes and Thailand).

[toptuan]

Wrong, that decree was the work of the same team that has run country's central bank for six years, generals had nothing to do with it.

Just so we are all on the same page, exactly what decree are you referring to?

Among the many economic disasters perpetrated by the Military Junta, I was referring to the decree made in December '06, by the Generals' puppet running the Ministry of Commerce. See the 4th asterisk below. But while you're at it, read all the other fiascoes that our poster PLUS has already forgotten...

For PLUS's effort to try to divorce these policies/results from the actions and influence of the military junta government is indeed laughable.

ECONOMIC POLICIES OF THE MILITARY JUNTA AND THEIR EFFECTS...

* A budget deficit of 147 billion Baht for fiscal year 2007. This was the first budget deficit since 2003.

* Elimination of subsidies for rice farmers. The price of rice, set at 30% above market prices during the deposed Thaksin Shinawatra government, was dramatically lowered. It was claimed that the high price of rice seriously affected farmers and caused social burdens.

* The cancellation of the Million Cows project. Under the project, the government lent five million cows to one million farming families. The families were allowed to sell milk and calves for profit. The program was highly popular among politicians.

* Capital controls in an attempt to reverse a massive appreciation of the Thai Baht. The moves caused a crash in the Thai stock market, with a one-day loss of 820 billion baht (approx. US$22 billion) in market value. The move resulted in harsh criticism both within Thailand and abroad. "My definition of what's going on is 'Welcome to amateur hour,'" said Donald Gimbel, fund manager for Carret & Co. Korn Chatikavanij of the Democrat party noted of a policy reversal, "That can't repair the damage that was caused in one historic day."

* Amid pressure from the junta to find wrong-doing in Thaksin Shinawatra's sale of Shin Corp to a Singaporean company, the Commerce Ministry altered regulations concerning foreign ownership companies. This impacted the legality of thousands of local subsidiaries of foreign companies operating in Thailand.

* Amendments to the Foreign Business Act that would limit foreign companies investing in List I and II businesses (including media, telecoms, and aviation) from holding more than 50% of shares. List III businesses (including retailers and hotels) were exempted from the new restrictions. Investors holding more than 50% would be forced to lower their stakes within a year. Investors holding more than 50% of voting rights would be forced to lower their voting stakes within a year. Finance Minister Pridiyathorn noted, "If they (foreign investors) had seen the details (of the foreign investment law), I am sure that they would be happy."[36][37] Brokers and analysts criticized the move (widely seen as necessary in order to punishment Temasek Holdings for its acquisition of deposed Premier Thaksin Shinawatra's Shin Corporation) as politics intervening to hurt the economy.[38] The governments of the United States, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, and European Union protested the move....

* Reopening Don Muang Airport for domestic and international flights after allegations that the newly opened Suvarnabhumi Airport alone was incapable of handling future traffic volume. The decision met with strong opposition from Airports of Thailand, the Civil Aviation Department, and domestic and international airlines. Surayud made the decision based on his personal advisors, without waiting for the Ministry of Transport to finish a study.

---excerpted from Wikipedia article, "Policies of Surayud Government"

Edited May 13, 2008 by toptuan

[Plus]

What a load of crap in that Wiki article!

- A budget deficit of 147 billion Baht for fiscal year 2007. This was the first budget deficit since 2003.

This year it's much more than that, over 200 billion, if I remember correctly.

- Elimination of subsidies for rice farmers.

Biggest exporter in the world doesn't need to subsidise the production as a matter of principle. It's ironic to talk about subsidies now, with prices three times higher than last year.

- The cancellation of the Million Cows project

That was an absurd idea to begin with. "The program was highly popular among politicians." - that explains it!

- Capital controls in an attempt to reverse a massive appreciation of the Thai Baht. The moves caused a crash in the Thai stock market...

There was an obvious effect on baht appreciation and stock market recovered in two weeks. All done by the same guy who run Thailand's monetary policy under Thaksin, not "military puppet at the Ministry of Commerce", which had nothing to do with the decree whatsoever.

- Reopening Don Muang Airport for domestic and international flights after allegations that the newly opened Suvarnabhumi Airport alone was incapable of handling future traffic volume. The decision met with strong opposition from Airports of Thailand, the Civil Aviation Department, and domestic and international airlines. Surayud made the decision based on his personal advisors, without waiting for the Ministry of Transport to finish a study.

That's rich. Suvarbnabhumi IS facing rtaffic congestion and building a new terminal and low cost airlines were the ones BEGGING to move to Don Muang to save on landing and handling fees.

The 1932 coup against absolutism cannot be compared to modern coups.

2006 coup was also different.

There have been and continue to be very close links between the Thai and Burmese military leadership.

There are generals who do business with Burmese and there are generals who fight them. Thaksin personally transferred 3rd region commander for standing up to Burmese army when they shelled Thai territory (Surayud was still the Supreme Commander at the time, I believe).

Nothing beats Thaksin, Samak, and Noppadon for openly supporting Burmese junta. But hey, as long as they have been democratically elected, YH will not say a word about them. It's the evil generals all the time.

[TAWP]

Since the generals also are not all on one side of the boat, it would help if YH pointed out who was evil and who was not.

Edited May 13, 2008 by TAWP

[younghusband]

Plus has a reasonable point that the 1932 and 2006 interventions were sui generis, and are not to be compared to the general run of coups.There's an interesting discussion to be had here.I have incidentally always accepted the latter served a purpose in clearing the political logjam, but that there were other and better ways of doing it.

I have no idea how the Thai military leadership lines up on Burma, general by general.My point is really that the Thai establishment which for this purpose runs from the court through the armed services to politicians have never been supportive of the Burmese peoples aspirations and have generally been too friendly to the repulsive Burmese leadership.This is hardly controversial and not really a matter where the likes of Samak and Nopadol are the key figures.

Edited May 13, 2008 by younghusband

[Plus]

A budget deficit of 147 billion Baht for fiscal year 2007. This was the first budget deficit since 2003.

This just can't be right. How about this:

"Thailand’s current account deficit is estimated to be around US$2.7 billion or 1.5 percent of GDP in 2005, following many years of surpluses."

http://www.worldbank.or.th/WBSITE/EXTERNAL...:333296,00.html

and for 2006:

"The central government budget is balanced this year, and is projected to be in deficit by about 1.2 percent of GDP"

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTHAI...con_monitor.pdf

http://www.worldbank.or.th/WBSITE/EXTERNAL...:333296,00.html

[thaigene2]

Plus has a reasonable point that the 1932 and 2006 interventions were sui generis, and are not to be compared to the general run of coups.There's an interesting discussion to be had here.I have incidentally always accepted the latter served a purpose in clearing the political logjam, but that there were other and better ways of doing it.

I have no idea how the Thai military leadership lines up on Burma, general by general.My point is really that the Thai establishment which for this purpose runs from the court through the armed services to politicians have never been supportive of the Burmese peoples aspirations and have generally been too friendly to the repulsive Burmese leadership.This is hardly controversial and not really a matter where the likes of Samak and Nopadol are the key figures.

It's in Thailand's strategic interests to have three week neighbours. Every country thinks about its own strategic interests in its own 'backyard'.

Think about the U.S. approach during the last 30 years toward Chile, Argentina, Nicaragua (contra), Colombia - GOOD. As opposed to: Venezuela, Brazil, Cuba - BAD. (off-topic I know, but has the U.S. EVER supported anything other than a strong-right-wing dictatorship in any of these 'backyard' places vs. their heavy-handed attacks against the lefties? Let's invade Granada - WHERE??)

In fact, you can go further with this...and wonder about ANYTHING that suggests power to the people "ANYWHERE" needs 'actionable' responses..Palestine, Africa - and yes, here in Asia (why would it be any different? If a popularly elected Government were toppled by force in a country say like Thailand ya know - just for example - and hey, maybe for a second time soon!! - what would Washington's response be? HEY - What will it be next time? I know we are all waiting to see that..Close to the US elections is my guess...a good distraction if I were calling the shots. But of course I'm not - just providing free advice some midget should be paying for!!)

[samran]

Plus has a reasonable point that the 1932 and 2006 interventions were sui generis, and are not to be compared to the general run of coups.There's an interesting discussion to be had here.I have incidentally always accepted the latter served a purpose in clearing the political logjam, but that there were other and better ways of doing it.

really? Sorry, I nearly choked on my weatbix thats all....

as for better ways for doing it, agree with you there.

[Seizhin]

I hate talking about Thailand politics.

It's like watching a drama that boils your blood.

I'll say no more on the topic.

Anyways, yes I also fear for another coup.

[Plus]

I also don't think another coup would do any good.

Someone will have to do something if there's blood on the streets, though. Short of that, let the morons who elected Samak feel the consequencies of their choice.

There are some interesting numbers about three months of parlament work:

The past three months saw 26 House meetings. The opposition sponsored 17 draft bills while the government submitted just one bill on land appropriation in the final week of the current House session.

and

First, he [House Speaker-designate Chai Chidchob] should focus on speeding up legislative passage instead of pushing for his pet project of a new Parliament building. The House has been in office for 114 days but has yet to appoint any standing committees - the longest period ever for partial activation of the legislature.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/14/pol...cs_30073039.php

[jumnien]

The last coup was absolutely devastating. I was in Hua Hin and sought refuge from the turmoil at small cafe at a table next to an elderly Scandinavian couple and sipped capucinnos. It was terrifying, to say the least. I don't think I could go through another one of those. Thank buddha it was followed by 19 months of making fun of the military goons who daily entertained us with their shortcomings. I have to say I kind of miss them!

[astral]

The last coup was absolutely devastating. I was in Hua Hin and sought refuge from the turmoil at small cafe at a table next to an elderly Scandinavian couple and sipped capucinnos.

Ah yes.

I remember my first Thai coup, in 1986.

Life went on as normal.

The 1991 coup was when it really got scary.

[hammered]

What are the odds on another coup say before the next military reshuffle in September?

[Plus]

The last coup was absolutely devastating. I was in Hua Hin and sought refuge from the turmoil at small cafe at a table next to an elderly Scandinavian couple and sipped capucinnos. It was terrifying, to say the least. I don't think I could go through another one of those.

You are kidding, right?

Maybe you should seek professional help for post-traumatic stress.

[jumnien]

Believe me I have. And a support group that meets regularly!

[Plus]

Have they prescribed medications for you? Can you claim some sort fo the disability payments?

[jumnien]

Sobriety is the answer!

[astral]

Believe me I have. And a support group that meets regularly!

Which bar do they meet in?

[jumnien]

Bourbon Street 10am Saturdays

Bar at Park Hotel Bangkok 8:30pm daily

I guess we don't really fear a coup after all!

Edited May 15, 2008 by sunrise07

[sriracha john]

Shifting the topic away from mental illness and alcoholism.....

Former Premier Chavalit Backs Coup for Good of Country

Former Prime Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh says he believes a military coup is acceptable if it’s carried out for the betterment of the nation. The general also pledges to sacrifice his life to protect the monarchy.

Former premier General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh says he’s confident no military coup is being planned. He says a coup is not something anyone can organize. But the General says a coup is acceptable if it will allow the nation to develop and evolve as a democratic society.

General Chavalit also commented on the many incidents where the monarchy has been referred to in the current political conflict. He says the monarchy has for thousands of years been the center of the Thai public’s love and devotion and that there’s no chance the institution could be harmed or destroyed.

The veteran politician believes the current political developments are nothing out of the ordinary.

He also adds the government is doing a good job of running the country.

He blamed the media for not giving the government enough space in the newspapers and TV.

This morning General Chavalit and his wife hosted a special merit making ceremony to celebrate his 76th birthday anniversary. Guests received a self-authored book by General Chavalit as a souvenir. Mentioned in the book is Chavalit’s determination to bring to an end the current political divide in the country.

He’s also declared his intention, as a royally decorated military officer, to fight with his life to protect the monarchy against any attempt to topple or defame the institution.

- Thailand Outlook (today)

========================

ok... I guess it wasn't much of a shifting away.....

Edited May 15, 2008 by sriracha john

[TAWP]

"has for thousands of years been the center of" - translation error, typo or lack of history knowledge? I mean, the Kingdom hasn't been around for for several thousands of years...

[sriracha john]

"has for thousands of years been the center of" - translation error, typo or lack of history knowledge? I mean, the Kingdom hasn't been around for for several thousands of years...

shhhh..... don't stop him, he was on a roll then.

[himachal]

'Half the country' fears another coup: Poll

BANGKOK: -- More than 50 per cent of respondents to an Abac Poll fear there will be another coup within the next six months, the pollster said on Sunday.

Abac Poll by Assumption University said that of 3,404 people surveyed, 55.6 per cent said the military might launch another coup during the next six months, and 54.6 per cent expected some unexpected, violent event to occur.

Only 53.6 per cent of respondents surveyed from May 6-10 expect Samak Sundaravej to remain as prime minister.

There has not been a military coup since Sept 19, 2006, when the army unseated prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Some 87.8 per cent of people said they expected to face more expensive commodity prices and 80.1 per cent were braced for increased crime.

-- The Nation 2008-05-12

Someone once asked me if I took ABAC polls seriously. The result was unanimous!

[toptuan]

... the General says a coup is acceptable if it will allow the nation to develop...as a democratic society.

The epitome of twisted reason.