So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[PeaceBlondie]

Thanks to grantbkk for an excellent, long post in which the punch line was,

"However, once they venture out into the Land of Smiles and are confronted by the realities of broken sewer and transportation systems they may begin to regret their vacation choice. They will pass on their close calls of traffic accidents and random acts of violence they witness to the next batch of potential travelers. If things don’t improve dramatically, Thailand may eventually become known as “Burma with Electricity”.

[cluezo]

Or "Thailand, the country that never sweeps."

[barky]

I think a number of things will/may happen.

Firstly, as long as Thailand continues to be the pussy hub of the world single westeners will continue to cum, regardless of them being poorly treated by the locals.

Men from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore will continue to travel here in similar or greater numbers for the same reason as the western counterparts; however, of course, they are treated with far more respect by the localsthan a white guy.

As for western families, I can see a definite decline in visitor numbers for various reasons including air fare increases. And I feel that Thailand may have difficulty in the future wooing this group back.

For single western women, well Thailand holds very little interest for this group, and also, western women generally have a hard time here. And that's another thread in itself.

With regard to developing markets, Russia etc, I foresee this area growing. But, the locals should be aware that this group is not as docile (law-abiding even) as the average western European, American, Australian male, etc. Consequently, I believe the locals will experience more problems handling this group ie: some members of this group will probably react more aggressively to being treated rudely or being ripped off.

[Prakanong]

"Men from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore will continue to travel here in similar or greater numbers for the same reason as the western counterparts; however, of course, they are treated with far more respect by the localsthan a white guy."

Do you know that for sure?

I have various Asian guys say exactly the opposite to me - in fact about 8 Chinese Singaporeans from my MBA wantedme to arrange a weekend and show them around as they say I would get it cheaper plus be better treated.

I also have female colleagues from all over Asia say something similar or they say its because I am a man but the white Euro always crops up too. I travel to Thailand with colleagues from most Asian countries and I notice no difference.

Your perception might just be all wrong but I will admit I have often been given better service myself when it has become known I live in Asia or that might just be the business card

Edited June 14, 2008 by Prakanong

[lordofdelusion]

Thanks to grantbkk for an excellent, long post in which the punch line was,

"However, once they venture out into the Land of Smiles and are confronted by the realities of broken sewer and transportation systems they may begin to regret their vacation choice. They will pass on their close calls of traffic accidents and random acts of violence they witness to the next batch of potential travelers. If things don’t improve dramatically, Thailand may eventually become known as “Burma with Electricity”.

Here here!! If Thailand wants the wealthy crowd, they need to understand that those people expect something for their money. Oddly, the BOT is defending the Baht recently to keep it from becomeing too weak thus raising the cost of vacationing here, (as well as exports; Thailand's 2 sources of income.) That , along with the rising price of travel should keep out a lot of middle class folk.

Just talking to several local business owners here on Phuket, Thai and farang, I am hearing about a 50% decrease in sales versus this time last year.

[Priceless]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

One doesn't have to possess the brain of Albert Einstein to see the decline in tourism coming.

Some 30+ years ago the long haul holiday destinations started to become popular and Thailand became one of the first countries I visited, outside Europe and the US.

The rising fuel prices (with some airlines more than 60% of the seat price is already 'fuel') will make it virtually impossible for a normal family with 2 kids to travel long haul for a 2-3 week holiday.

For singles and -young- couples it will take a bit longer before they also stop flying long distances for holidays. Expensive airline tickets will make them stop thinking about destinations like Thailand = too expensive. The same for Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Philippines and such.

But also the same for destinations like the USA (from Europe), Caribbean and South America.

Many (smaller) airlines are going bust or went under already; airlines stopped or cut flights already to certain destinations; look at new clippings 'Thai Airways' from today.

I received an email from the Caribbean just now from a company (Paradise Rebates) where dive companies, restaurants, hotels, resorts etc. bundle their efforts to try and comfort their clients with rebates because of increased prices with airlines and increased prices for luggage (divers).

Tourism from ASEAN* and East Asan countries to Thailand declined already in 2007 versus 2006 except from strange figures from Laos and Myanmar which are not really 'tourism' figures. (see: TAT: http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre )

* ASEAN/East Asia accounts for more than 55% of total inbound Thailand tourism !

Tourism from Europe = 25.5 % of total still climbed with 11% in 2007 v. 2006 but for how much longer ?

Your comments please.

LaoPo

I don't have an answer to the OP's question, since my crystal ball is away being repaired at the moment

However, it might be worth noting the following changes in international tourist arrivals between 2006 and 2007:

East Asia: +0.49%

Europe: +11.08%

The Americas: -0.92%

South Asia: +13.27%

Oceania: +16.59%

Middle East: +11.84%

Africa: +11.16%

Grand Total: +4.65%

I.e. arrivals from all areas except the Americas are increasing. 2007 was the year when USA was hit by the subprime crisis, which probably is the reason for the decrease in arrivals from there. To what extent the effect of that crisis will spread acoss the world seems to still be debated by the experts.

Then there is another question to which I have no answer: What about expenditure, i.e. are the tourists spending more, as much or less per capita? That, times the number of arrivals, is what in the end determines the fate of all those dependent on the tourist industry.

/ Priceless

[Naam]

Do people actually travel to Germany for vacation?

visit Bavaria during season (summer) and you see more japanese and chinese tourists than in any place in Thailand

[ourmanflint]

OMG!! Stupidity and/or inexcusable optimism is still the overriding quality of TV posters!! 555

Seriously, what is happening across the western hemisphere now will affect Thailand soon. Tourist figures for the past 10 years have all relied upon one thing..... the fact that people had money in their pockets to spare! Now they don't or very soon won't. You have to be incrdibly naive or just plain thick not to get that.

Yes tourist numbers have continued to increase year on year for as long as most people remember, but then property prices in that time have only ever gone one way.. up! Also inflation was pretty low across the board, people really did feel richer and had money to spare.

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

[cloudhopper]

Tourist figures for the past 10 years have all relied upon one thing.....

...and that thing is - being routinely manipulated to suit the TAT!

[Ricardo]

But then I fly direct not using some raghead airline via a six hour stopover at Abu Bin Khazi international airfield latrine.

This is just a guess, but you've failed to fully enjoy the stop-over experience, in the Gulf, right ?

[boiledegg]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

By the way, I'm only being sarcastic about the exams and personality tests.

It would work out far too expensive for the tax-payer.

Maybe the cost of passports could be made prohibitively expensive?

Seriously though, I am sure my holligan brothers and sisters deserve their holidays just like everyone else. Most yobs are just misunderstood and a few week in the 'land of hugs' will sort them out.

I take it your so wealthy a passport at a mere 100,000 GBP would be no problem, how about if they put some quantum physics in the passport exam to stop the riff-raff from leaving Stalag Euroland, you could get a job in Gordons cabinet with such proposals.

Why do certain expats seem to think that to degrade tourists and every other farang raises their stature somehow?

Ive read one of your posts saying you used to like a drink, maybe youve acted like more of a yob in your time then most and were one of these hooligans you now accuse many of being.

Saying that i do actuually agree that there are more people who like a fight on a Friday in LOS now then there was 9 years ago when i first came, but that possibly due to the greater amount of people coming here.

[garro]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

By the way, I'm only being sarcastic about the exams and personality tests.

It would work out far too expensive for the tax-payer.

Maybe the cost of passports could be made prohibitively expensive?

Seriously though, I am sure my holligan brothers and sisters deserve their holidays just like everyone else. Most yobs are just misunderstood and a few week in the 'land of hugs' will sort them out.

I take it your so wealthy a passport at a mere 100,000 GBP would be no problem, how about if they put some quantum physics in the passport exam to stop the riff-raff from leaving Stalag Euroland, you could get a job in Gordons cabinet with such proposals.

Why do certain expats seem to think that to degrade tourists and every other farang raises their stature somehow?

Ive read one of your posts saying you used to like a drink, maybe youve acted like more of a yob in your time then most and were one of these hooligans you now accuse many of being.

Saying that i do actuually agree that there are more people who like a fight on a Friday in LOS now then there was 9 years ago when i first came, but that possibly due to the greater amount of people coming here.

I am sorry that my sense of humour did not work for you. I would have thought that the outlandishness of my posts would be an obvious clue. I suppose it is a reminder that some people take these internet threads very seriously. Thanks.

Edited June 14, 2008 by garro

[Ulysses G.]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

[dumball]

Do people actually travel to Germany for vacation?

visit Bavaria during season (summer) and you see more japanese and chinese tourists than in any place in Thailand

Ditto for canada

[boiledegg]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

By the way, I'm only being sarcastic about the exams and personality tests.

It would work out far too expensive for the tax-payer.

Maybe the cost of passports could be made prohibitively expensive?

Seriously though, I am sure my holligan brothers and sisters deserve their holidays just like everyone else. Most yobs are just misunderstood and a few week in the 'land of hugs' will sort them out.

I take it your so wealthy a passport at a mere 100,000 GBP would be no problem, how about if they put some quantum physics in the passport exam to stop the riff-raff from leaving Stalag Euroland, you could get a job in Gordons cabinet with such proposals.

Why do certain expats seem to think that to degrade tourists and every other farang raises their stature somehow?

Ive read one of your posts saying you used to like a drink, maybe youve acted like more of a yob in your time then most and were one of these hooligans you now accuse many of being.

Saying that i do actuually agree that there are more people who like a fight on a Friday in LOS now then there was 9 years ago when i first came, but that possibly due to the greater amount of people coming here.

I am sorry that my sense of humour did not work for you. I would have thought that the outlandishness of my posts would be an obvious clue. I suppose it is a reminder that some people take these internet threads very seriously. Thanks.

Your first post wasnt outlandish it is pretty clear its what you thought, im a inverted snob and will always bite at such comments. No need for an apology a bit of bickering on here spices it up.

[ourmanflint]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

Edited June 14, 2008 by ourmanflint

[waldpyk]

we have

1. peak oil

2.commodities exploding , yes exploding

please check price of copper iron wheat ect.

3.banking crisis : no only sub prime but also and more the CDO's

the economy is shaking and on the way out

how anyone can think it will pass like " oke i pay 100 $ more and thats it" , beats me

the tourist industy like we know it will be over in 2 max 5 years

sure there will be tourists like there were tourists in 18 century florence and rome

the industry will be gone the beach almost empty

i hope to enjoy while it lasts

[boiledegg]

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

Dont people who were in LOS in 1997/8 have a realisation of what a massive slump would do to Thailand.

Why would a slow down in tourism have such a devastating effect on the Thai economy? i dont think it will, though rising oil/foodm mass inflation and a slow down of the US and global economy will.

Besides global tourism is on the rise and Thailand will no doubt get a slice of that.

Your post is just a riddle and doesnt ask or answer anything, though im presuming you were either a hippy or a squaddy in 1989.

Edited June 14, 2008 by boiledegg

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

Perhaps you can enlighten us on how it we differ here from like the US or Europe or Australia, better or worse?

[Ulysses G.]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

I HAVE been here since 1989 and heard this same cr*p over and over again.

[ttthailand]

Thais could not wait to push the not so big spenders away ( be careful what you wish for ). I would bet they are now re-thinking their position. I can read the writing on the wall, back packers welcomed , back to back 30 day visas , lower prices at government parks, etc etc.... All welcome. PLEASE COME BACK. so sorry Joe !!

[JSixpack]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

I HAVE been here since 1989 and heard this same cr*p over and over again.

Yeah. Before the 97 crash, the baht was significantly more expensive than it is even now. Thailand has had quite a number of coups before, and they were a lot more violent than the most recent. And we've had oil crises before as well. Thailand will continue to do well. If tourism ever really started to suffer, the authorities would move on it. When they needed to sell more condos, they changed the condo law; when they didn't, they changed it back. Yeah, the economy slows down sometimes, then it picks back up. Yawn.

Some retired old fart gets upset about a rude taxi driver or something, we ALWAYS hear about "killing the goose that laid the golden eggs" and "everybody's moving to Cambodia" and the like nonsense. Same old thing, over and over, year after year. Meanwhile, more and more tourists, not less, have been visiting Thailand.

Most recent news was that TAT is giving more attention to Asian and Middle East tourists. Check out Walking Street and you'll see this is indeed a fast-growing market segment. The rate of growth in tourism may slow sometimes--why not, everything has cycles--but tourism has still been growing and the growth will continue, no question.

Edited June 15, 2008 by JSixpack

[JSixpack]

"Men from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore will continue to travel here in similar or greater numbers for the same reason as the western counterparts; however, of course, they are treated with far more respect by the localsthan a white guy."

Do you know that for sure?

I have various Asian guys say exactly the opposite to me - in fact about 8 Chinese Singaporeans from my MBA wantedme to arrange a weekend and show them around as they say I would get it cheaper plus be better treated.

I also have female colleagues from all over Asia say something similar or they say its because I am a man but the white Euro always crops up too. I travel to Thailand with colleagues from most Asian countries and I notice no difference.

Your perception might just be all wrong but I will admit I have often been given better service myself when it has become known I live in Asia or that might just be the business card

That is exactly right. Asian guys get better treatment when they pay two or three times more than do Western tourists.

[Priceless]

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

Ulysses G. has already pointed out that he was here in 1989. I first came to Thailand in early 1984 and yes, I was here in 1997 and 1998. We have both seen that things can go (seriously) wrong without the sky falling down.

It seems from you earlier posts that you confuse USA with the "Western hemisphere" or "outside world":

"Seriously, what is happening across the western hemisphere now will affect Thailand soon. Tourist figures for the past 10 years have all relied upon one thing..... the fact that people had money in their pockets to spare! Now they don't or very soon won't. You have to be incrdibly naive or just plain thick not to get that.

Yes tourist numbers have continued to increase year on year for as long as most people remember, but then property prices in that time have only ever gone one way.. up! Also inflation was pretty low across the board, people really did feel richer and had money to spare.

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion."

Property values in the US are, if not "swan diving" then taking a serious hit. I'm quite convinced that arrival numbers from that country will fall again this year. However, international arrivals from the US account for 4.3% of the grand total. Between 2006 and 2007 international arrivals to Thailand grew by 4.65%. Even if arrivals from the US had disappeared totally, i.e. gone to 0 or, to put it differently, decreased by 100% (I had better be clear here) total arrivals to Thailand would still have increased.

Other countries are doing much less badly (e.g. Europe) and some are doing very well indeed (e.g. Russia, the Middle East and others). Whereas arrivals from the US decreased by 17,000 from 2006 to 2007, arrivals from Australia increased by 100,000 in the same period. I think that the global economic picture is much too complicated at the moment for one to make any reasonable forecasts about the situation for the tourist industry in Thailand.

Oh, and the overvalued Thai baht:

It sure was a lot stronger from 1990-1997 and has actually been reasonably steady for the last couple of years. However, the US dollar has taken a beating, due to too much private consumption and a few too many wars...

/ Priceless

Edited June 15, 2008 by Priceless

[Tokay]

Not soon enough.

[Prakanong]

"Men from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore will continue to travel here in similar or greater numbers for the same reason as the western counterparts; however, of course, they are treated with far more respect by the localsthan a white guy."

Do you know that for sure?

I have various Asian guys say exactly the opposite to me - in fact about 8 Chinese Singaporeans from my MBA wantedme to arrange a weekend and show them around as they say I would get it cheaper plus be better treated.

I also have female colleagues from all over Asia say something similar or they say its because I am a man but the white Euro always crops up too. I travel to Thailand with colleagues from most Asian countries and I notice no difference.

Your perception might just be all wrong but I will admit I have often been given better service myself when it has become known I live in Asia or that might just be the business card

That is exactly right. Asian guys get better treatment when they pay two or three times more than do Western tourists.

but my point is that they do not get better service from what I see and what they tell me.

I have been in Thailand a good dozen times with Asian colleagues and really see no difference.

One thing causes a giggle is when they automatically bring me the bill in a restaurant or bar when my female Asian boss is there - at our company the most senior person pays on their company card and claims - they automatically assume its the white guy.

[Travel2003]

Read an interesting aticle in The Economist, May edition.

Asia, beware Benidorm

Booming tourism in emerging economies promises huge benefits. But not if it copies the mistakes of mature markets

WHEN low-cost air travel was taking off in Europe in the early 1990s, the German and the British ambassadors to Greece used to call each other at the end of each week during the summer, to compare notes on the bad behaviour of the visitors from their countries. No clear winner emerged. Sunburnt Brits and Germans would both get blind drunk, lose their money and passports, wind up in a fight at a beach bar and end the night in one of the Greek islands' police cells.

Tourism in Europe's Mediterranean countries is a big business, but it is not loved. It is blamed for polluting the landscape, spoiling the beaches and corrupting the locals' morals. This is partly the countries' own doing. In the 1960s the governments of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece encouraged the building of hotels and other tourist infrastructure, which seemed the fastest way to catch up with the wealthier north. During the 40 years of breakneck development that followed, vast stretches of the Spanish coast were concreted over, transforming the Costa del Sol into the Costa del Concrete and attracting hordes of tourists in search of sun, sea and sand. Some Greek islands have come to resemble a Hellenic Hong Kong, with high-rise hotels and traffic jams.

Some people in tourism made good money, but in recent years even they have started to notice how the ugliness and the noise is keeping visitors away. The government in Madrid grew so concerned that it bought tracts of seaside land itself, to stop developers from getting their hands on it.

The package and the bill

As tourism is about to explode in the developing world, governments should heed such lessons. During the next two decades the growth of tourism in emerging economies will be two or three times that of the developed world (see article). That is something to celebrate. Mass travel is a path to development and one of the fruits of increasing wealth—travel for experience, for food and culture, and for sheer pleasure. Yet it also contains the danger that development will destroy the very thing people have come to enjoy.

Emerging economies are suspicious about the developed world telling them to act responsibly. Why shouldn't they exploit their natural resources? A pristine hard-to-reach beach with a small exclusive hotel may be just what rich Westerners want; local fishermen would prefer new schools for their children. But with tourism, it is not so clear that rapid development really is in the locals' economic interest. If their government trashes their natural habitat, it is like an investment manager who pays you big dividends out of your capital. The money is good for a while, but you lose in the long term.

Take care of your capital

That is worth remembering because the lesson from tourism in the West is that nobody keeps an eye on the capital. The bay, the ancient site, the coral reef and the fresh water have no single owner to protect them. The hotelier who raises a 1,000-room monstrosity will pay for the bricks and mortar, but not for scarring the view or wrecking an historic monument.

The question planners in these new markets should ask themselves is where they want tourism in their country to be in 20 years. At the moment tourists from emerging markets have their own tastes. Russians like two weeks on a sunny beach, wild parties and lots of retail therapy. The Chinese prefer urban travel to sea and sand. People from the Gulf states travel in big families and require halal food. Yet, with the progress of economic prosperity they will probably become more like Europeans and Americans, who want scenery, a decent environment and a smattering of history and culture. If you destroy your heritage and scenery, you will come to regret it.

From Mexico comes a cautionary tale. The country's Caribbean coast was once a natural paradise. Then data were fed into a government computer program. It digested the statistics and spat out the name of a potential touristic gold mine: a spit of sand called Cancún. Today Cancún has nearly 24,000 hotel rooms, roughly 4m visitors a year and an average of 190 flights daily. Mass tourism needs mass development, but don't pave paradise to put up a parking lot.

[ourmanflint]

Ulysses G. has already pointed out that he was here in 1989. I first came to Thailand in early 1984 and yes, I was here in 1997 and 1998. We have both seen that things can go (seriously) wrong without the sky falling down.

It seems from you earlier posts that you confuse USA with the "Western hemisphere" or "outside world":

...snip...

Property values in the US are, if not "swan diving" then taking a serious hit. I'm quite convinced that arrival numbers from that country will fall again this year. However, international arrivals from the US account for 4.3% of the grand total. Between 2006 and 2007 international arrivals to Thailand grew by 4.65%. Even if arrivals from the US had disappeared totally, i.e. gone to 0 or, to put it differently, decreased by 100% (I had better be clear here) total arrivals to Thailand would still have increased.

Other countries are doing much less badly (e.g. Europe) and some are doing very well indeed (e.g. Russia, the Middle East and others). Whereas arrivals from the US decreased by 17,000 from 2006 to 2007, arrivals from Australia increased by 100,000 in the same period. I think that the global economic picture is much too complicated at the moment for one to make any reasonable forecasts about the situation for the tourist industry in Thailand.

Oh, and the overvalued Thai baht:

It sure was a lot stronger from 1990-1997 and has actually been reasonably steady for the last couple of years. However, the US dollar has taken a beating, due to too much private consumption and a few too many wars...

/ Priceless

kudos on being in Thailand so long!

Agreed that it is extremely complicated, but while you are on the side of the fence that is saying Thailand is relatively immune to external economic pressures, I am in no doubt on this side of the fence that it is not. We have barely begun to recoup the full implications of the sub prime crisis in the US and its effect on the home economies of Europe.

As the original question was "whether farang tourism will come to a halt" I think you are misguided if you think that events in the USA and UK will not have serious consequences for the tourist industry in Thailand. But please keep on spinning the old line if it makes you feel happy.

[london]

Firstly, Farang tourism to Thailand won't come to a halt...simply as there is absolutely no reason for that to occur.

The misguided quotes saying that the Baht is so strong (it isn't..its the $US that's weak) really don't have any credibility. The exchange rate of the baht to the major basket of currencies (ex-$US) has weakened considerably over the last 5 years...and basically crashed over the last 10 years.

Airfares have actually declined significantly over the last few years and certainly, as the original post misquoted, 30 years ago they were SUBSTANTIALLY more expensive than they are now.

Frankly, if potential travellers are concerned by a $75 fuel levy, they really shouldn't be travelling. Why? Simply that international, or for that matter, even domestic travel will always throw up additional expenditure....and if there is additional expenditure, its likely to be significantly more than $75.

The world is a big place with many tourist destinations. Forget the sex industry as a major drawcard: honeymooners, mum and dad travellers and most backpackers are not part of that world nor particularly interested in pursuing it. Sure there is a percentage of incoming tourists who are focused on that side of things, but in reality they are NOT the biggest spenders and have probably done more to deter more affluent tourists from coming to Thailand in the past than attracted them to come. If you want confirmation of this, just walk around Nana or spend a day in Pattaya. Also remember that the sex trade is available in many countries.

Thailand offers many unique cultural and geographic attractions that are not replicated in other countries. Also, within 3 hours from Thailand you have the whole of Asia at your doorstep.

Sure, there are political issues (often) but frankly, they don't deter or influence holiday makers....just ask people in the resorts in Phuket, Samui or Krabi. They basically don't care as it doesn't touch them in any way. They are looking for a holiday....not to live here permanently...although some decide to do so!!!

I recommend people to visit Thailand as I am sure many other posters do also. None who have come here are disappointed...and almost always book again.

So, no, farang tourism in Thailand will not come to a halt.

[grahamhc]

Russians are still a small part of total; just 279.000 in 2007 and that's peanuts in a total of 14,4 million tourists.

LaoPo

And most the russians are in Pattaya. Now Russain only nightclubs, Russian staffed Agogos, russian bars and pubs catering to russians only.

No problem to me as plenty of other places in the Pattaya area for me to go...