So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[bendix]

The idea of tourism declining substantially is ludicrous. Forgetting the Americans for a minute (not easy I know, because their tourists are so loud),

It can be hard to hear them over the whinging of the Poms.

Hahaha . .touche, Ulysses.

True, very true, although the types of Brits who are now making their way over here are too busy burning their pasty skin in the sun, swilling warm lager and fighting each other over football club allegiances to whinge too much. With those type of activities, they're in paradise.

"Farkin 'ell. It's just like 'ome, innit? Only warmer."

The comment about the loudness of the new breed of wealthy Russians is spot on. Oh lordy. The Russians and the Brits combined are an excellent reason not to ever go anywhere near Pattaya again.

[Jimjim]

In regard to OP. Never. Just will be coming from different locations like Russia.

[wintermute]

The comment about the loudness of the new breed of wealthy Russians is spot on. Oh lordy. The Russians and the Brits combined are an excellent reason not to ever go anywhere near Pattaya again.

There will come a time when the Thais have to decide whether or not an influx of Russian tourists is really worth the hassle. Not to stereotype but they often bring the criminal element with them and competing prostitution rings. If this starts eating into Somchai's bottom line they may create restrictions on Russian investment.

[Johpa]

The comment about the loudness of the new breed of wealthy Russians is spot on. Oh lordy. The Russians and the Brits combined are an excellent reason not to ever go anywhere near Pattaya again.

There will come a time when the Thais have to decide whether or not an influx of Russian tourists is really worth the hassle. Not to stereotype but they often bring the criminal element with them and competing prostitution rings. If this starts eating into Somchai's bottom line they may create restrictions on Russian investment.

No foreign organized crime syndicate is able to compete with the domestic Thai crime syndicate, not the Yakuza, not the Triads, not the Mafia, nobody. At best they can hope to align themselves by paying sufficient tea money to open a small local franchise, such as the Russian hookers on lower Sukhumwit or the Israeli drug dealers around Samui.

Tourism is certainly not coming to a halt tomorrow, but basic economics tells you that as the price of travel increases their will be less demand. I think more people will begin to rediscover the pleasures of Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. I expect that by next year the cost of peak season air fare from North America to Thailand will be around $2,000 return, and still rising. I expect some of the domestic US carriers to falter thus decreasing the total number of trans-pacific seats available. Although not coming to a halt, middle class tourism will see a precipitous drop and budget and high end tourism will probably experience significant drops over the next 24 months.

[Travel2003]

The idea of tourism declining substantially is ludicrous. Forgetting the Americans for a minute (not easy I know, because their tourists are so loud),

It can be hard to hear them over the whinging of the Poms.

Just a quick side step.

Last tourist survey in Norway:

The American tourists are loudest, complain most, and are tackiest dressed. But, they are also the most generous tippers.

I guess the last one outweight the more negative ones wherever a tourist go.

[Heng]

The comment about the loudness of the new breed of wealthy Russians is spot on. Oh lordy. The Russians and the Brits combined are an excellent reason not to ever go anywhere near Pattaya again.

There will come a time when the Thais have to decide whether or not an influx of Russian tourists is really worth the hassle. Not to stereotype but they often bring the criminal element with them and competing prostitution rings. If this starts eating into Somchai's bottom line they may create restrictions on Russian investment.

No foreign organized crime syndicate is able to compete with the domestic Thai crime syndicate, not the Yakuza, not the Triads, not the Mafia, nobody. At best they can hope to align themselves by paying sufficient tea money to open a small local franchise, such as the Russian hookers on lower Sukhumwit or the Israeli drug dealers around Samui.

Amen.

[Priceless]

The comment about the loudness of the new breed of wealthy Russians is spot on. Oh lordy. The Russians and the Brits combined are an excellent reason not to ever go anywhere near Pattaya again.

There will come a time when the Thais have to decide whether or not an influx of Russian tourists is really worth the hassle. Not to stereotype but they often bring the criminal element with them and competing prostitution rings. If this starts eating into Somchai's bottom line they may create restrictions on Russian investment.

No foreign organized crime syndicate is able to compete with the domestic Thai crime syndicate, not the Yakuza, not the Triads, not the Mafia, nobody. At best they can hope to align themselves by paying sufficient tea money to open a small local franchise, such as the Russian hookers on lower Sukhumwit or the Israeli drug dealers around Samui.

Tourism is certainly not coming to a halt tomorrow, but basic economics tells you that as the price of travel increases their will be less demand. I think more people will begin to rediscover the pleasures of Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. I expect that by next year the cost of peak season air fare from North America to Thailand will be around $2,000 return, and still rising. I expect some of the domestic US carriers to falter thus decreasing the total number of trans-pacific seats available. Although not coming to a halt, middle class tourism will see a precipitous drop and budget and high end tourism will probably experience significant drops over the next 24 months.

I guess that Galileo Galilei was wrong after all, the sun is not the center of "our universe", the USA is...

You may very well be right in that fewer American tourists will come to Thailand. However, I doubt that tourists from Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia/Oceania will find the travelling costs to "Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean" all that attractive.

Incoming tourists from USA constituted 4.3% of all international arrivals to Thailand during 2007, so the Thai tourism industry doesn't exactly go under if some of the Americans stay away! Actually, there were more tourists arriving that year from either Scandinavia, UK or Australia than from USA. This is not to mention the top countries of origin, Malaysia, Japan, Korea and China.

/ Priceless

Edited June 25, 2008 by Priceless

[LaoPo]

error; see later post please.

LaoPo

Edited June 30, 2008 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

If you look at the OP message I was talking long haul flights and I was also talking that tourism from Asia countries into Thailand already declined; and Asia counts for more than 60% of total tourism to LOS.

It is a NO RETURN fact -if oil prices stay this high or even increase- that tourism will go down and eventually HALT - STOP & DECLINE !

Major Airlines To Cut Long-haul Flights To Thailand

Today's post from George:

"ATTA president Apichart Sankary said that although the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets 17 million visitors next year, only 15 million may arrive."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Major-Airlin...gh-t197493.html

I fear that Thailand will not even make 13-14 million visitors in 2009 and I doubt if it will reach the target of 15.7 million this year.

Most people do not yet realize how serious the expensive oilprices are and will become in the future and how they relate to tourism in general.

It will change -forever- the travel pattern for 100's of Millions of people all over the world and it will hurt Thailand BIG TIME. 'We' (Farang) always think we are the tourist Champions in Thailand but we are not.

The Ásians are, not us. And the Asians are staying home or in their own area already, more and more. The same pattern is also there in Europe and the US, possibly in Australia and NZ as well.

If oil prices don't go down, worldwide tourism will suffer gigantic.

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

Unfortunately this won't be the case - tourism might dip a little, but won't stop those with dosh making a trip abroad.

[LaoPo]

Unfortunately this won't be the case - tourism might dip a little, but won't stop those with dosh making a trip abroad.

Hope you're right Brit but I'm afraid you're not.

Time will tell.

LaoPo

[farang prince]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

On the 17th of July 2143. You can take my word for it.

Bellini, it will happen much earlier than that...let's say the 1st of July, 2143. Get it right man!!!!!!

[LaoPo]

It's not just Thailand facing tourism problems, it's everywhere...

World tourism: Caribbean headed for crisis?

excerpt:

"Causing particular alarm is the decision by US-based American Airlines to dramatically curtail the number of flights to the region. Some have already been cancelled, and more suspensions will take effect in September. Delta and US Airways have also cut back on the frequency of flights. Continental and United Airlines say that cuts are imminent, and there is fear that European airlines may soon follow suit."

http://www.viewswire.com/index.asp?layout=...462502&rf=0

LaoPo

[Zappadappa]

NEVER

[ourmanflint]

Airlines to cut long-haul flights to Thailand next year

By Suchat Sritama

The Nation

Published on July 1, 2008

Several major airlines including Thai Airways International are cutting long-haul flights into Thailand next year in line with a forecast 12-per-cent drop in the number of inbound tourists, said the Association of Thai Travel Agents.

ATTA president Apichart Sankary said that although the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets 17 million visitors next year, only 15 million may arrive.

Starting from today, THAI will suspend its New York-Bangkok service. The company has also reduced flight frequencies, re-routed flights with particular impact on its US operations and introduced other cost-cutting measures.

"Other airlines such as Lufthansa are also considering reducing long-haul flights between Thailand and Europe," said Apichart.

Thailand is expected to miss this year's visitor target of 15.7 million. ATTA, which encompasses inbound travel agencies, expects the number to reach only 15 million.

While domestic tourism will be more sluggish than last year due to political conflict, Apichart attributed the lower number of foreign visitors to efforts in Europe and the United States to lure tourists from the Middle East.

Maitree Narukhatpichai, president of Phuket Tourism Association, admitted that foreign tourists' bookings for the island this month had dropped 15-20 per cent from last year's level due to political tensions, which were driving away visitors from major markets.

Seni Phuwasethavorn, president of the Koh Samui Tourism Business Association, said the high season would not be as active as last year due to the higher cost of travelling.

For instance, the ferry fare from Surat Thani to the island will soon be increased by 20 per cent. Currently, Samui's hotel occupancy rate is at 60 per cent, down from 70-80 per cent in the same period last year.

I assume that all those who still believe nothing will change, had probably seen this and dismissed it!

I have a lot of respect for some of the long time TV'ers, but I'm starting to think you're all crackers. Too much time in la la land I'm afraid..

I'll keep dragging this one up as it gets better or worse, just so you can all be reminded of your insight!!

[Priceless]

When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

If you look at the OP message I was talking long haul flights and I was also talking that tourism from Asia countries into Thailand already declined; and Asia counts for more than 60% of total tourism to LOS.

It is a NO RETURN fact -if oil prices stay this high or even increase- that tourism will go down and eventually HALT - STOP & DECLINE !

Major Airlines To Cut Long-haul Flights To Thailand

Today's post from George:

"ATTA president Apichart Sankary said that although the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets 17 million visitors next year, only 15 million may arrive."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Major-Airlin...gh-t197493.html

I fear that Thailand will not even make 13-14 million visitors in 2009 and I doubt if it will reach the target of 15.7 million this year.

Most people do not yet realize how serious the expensive oilprices are and will become in the future and how they relate to tourism in general.

It will change -forever- the travel pattern for 100's of Millions of people all over the world and it will hurt Thailand BIG TIME. 'We' (Farang) always think we are the tourist Champions in Thailand but we are not.

The Ásians are, not us. And the Asians are staying home or in their own area already, more and more. The same pattern is also there in Europe and the US, possibly in Australia and NZ as well.

If oil prices don't go down, worldwide tourism will suffer gigantic.

LaoPo

On what do you base the highlighted statement above? According to figures from the Immigration Bureau, Asian arrivals in 2007 changed as follows from 2006:

East Asia (incl. ASEAN) +0.49%

South Asia +13.27%

Middle East +11.84%

Doesn't look like a decline to me, or maybe you have some figures for the first half of 2008?

BTW, the original article that George quoted said that international tourist arrivals would decrease by 12% in 2009. If one read the article carefully, it turned out that this was not in relation to this year or to 2007, but rather in relation to an earlier forecast of 17 million arrivals! In actual fact, the current forecasts are 15 million arrivals for both 2008 and 2009, compared to 14.5 million in 2007. Certainly a decreasing (or flat) growth, but not a decrease in numbers. Thai newspapers have a way with numbers

/ Priceless

[cynthialee]

As long as bkk remains a party town tourism will never die. Paying a few 100$ more for a plane ticket will deter the average tourist but not those that keep coming back to los.

With fewer tourist hotels may even have to lower prices which make it even better for the farang crowd....lol.

Edited July 6, 2008 by cynthialee

[Ulysses G.]

I assume that all those who still believe nothing will change, had probably seen this and dismissed it!

I don't think that anyone thinks that "nothing" will happen, however, I am pretty sure that there will be enough tourists for businesses that are already thriving to continue to do well during high season and to survive during low season (unless something new and worse happens).

Edited July 6, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[lannarebirth]

I think the next wave of money to wash up on Thailand's shores will be well to do people employing "tax avoidance" strategies. That's real money, not backpacker money.

[cynthialee]

People with real wealth will never find thailand amusing, imho. They need not worry about cheap like most do here.

[lannarebirth]

People with real wealth will never find thailand amusing, imho. They need not worry about cheap like most do here.

I guess it depends on what circles you travel in. Most of the people I know here are pretty well off by western standards. They like living here and travel to other places they like when the spirit moves them. As BM "chinthee" once noted, Thailand is "easy on the brain", which is a nice break from more competitive pursuits abroad.

[libya 115]

I believe that tourism in Thailand, despite rising air ticket prices and world economy gloom, will never decrease significantly.

Thailand is a unique travel destination. It is a place where tourists return year after year, the loyalty-factor is rock solid.

There are people who work hard and save their money specifically to return to Thailand year after year. The Christmas/New Year period alone is so popular, I cannot believe that it will decline. For some people that annual 3 or 4 weeks in Thailand is more important than paying their mortgage, in fact more important than anything, after being stuck in the U.K. for a whole year.

I do believe tourism will drop off in other countries but NOT Thailand.

[ourmanflint]

Room occupancy rates are down 20% from this time last year in both Phuket and Koh Samui, both of which are package holiday destinations not just your average backpackers. What more do you want??? 20% is a significant drop if your business is tourism!

[BIGD1]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

One doesn't have to possess the brain of Albert Einstein to see the decline in tourism coming.

Some 30+ years ago the long haul holiday destinations started to become popular and Thailand became one of the first countries I visited, outside Europe and the US.

The rising fuel prices (with some airlines more than 60% of the seat price is already 'fuel') will make it virtually impossible for a normal family with 2 kids to travel long haul for a 2-3 week holiday.

For singles and -young- couples it will take a bit longer before they also stop flying long distances for holidays. Expensive airline tickets will make them stop thinking about destinations like Thailand = too expensive. The same for Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Philippines and such.

But also the same for destinations like the USA (from Europe), Caribbean and South America.

Many (smaller) airlines are going bust or went under already; airlines stopped or cut flights already to certain destinations; look at new clippings 'Thai Airways' from today.

I received an email from the Caribbean just now from a company (Paradise Rebates) where dive companies, restaurants, hotels, resorts etc. bundle their efforts to try and comfort their clients with rebates because of increased prices with airlines and increased prices for luggage (divers).

Tourism from ASEAN* and East Asan countries to Thailand declined already in 2007 versus 2006 except from strange figures from Laos and Myanmar which are not really 'tourism' figures. (see: TAT: http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre )

* ASEAN/East Asia accounts for more than 55% of total inbound Thailand tourism !

Tourism from Europe = 25.5 % of total still climbed with 11% in 2007 v. 2006 but for how much longer ?

Your comments please.

LaoPo

Never, people will always go on vacation, they will find a way to pay for it, lets face it, if they stay in UK or Europe they will spend just as much on the overpriced hotels and food, i think you will again see a 10-15% increase in tourism, Thailand has much to offer in terms of ease of travel, something for everyone, Tourists arent going anywhere.

[BIGD1]

Room occupancy rates are down 20% from this time last year in both Phuket and Koh Samui, both of which are package holiday destinations not just your average backpackers. What more do you want??? 20% is a significant drop if your business is tourism!

The drop is all from the business side of things, many companies have cancelled meetings and conventions, the individuals are still coming in droves, here at the Marriott in Phuket, we are running near full even in the off season, and many of my collegues in the major hotels tell me the same. We are still bringing in $200 plus per night.

[LaoPo]

When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

If you look at the OP message I was talking long haul flights and I was also talking that tourism from Asia countries into Thailand already declined; and Asia counts for more than 60% of total tourism to LOS.

It is a NO RETURN fact -if oil prices stay this high or even increase- that tourism will go down and eventually HALT - STOP & DECLINE !

Major Airlines To Cut Long-haul Flights To Thailand

Today's post from George:

"ATTA president Apichart Sankary said that although the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets 17 million visitors next year, only 15 million may arrive."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Major-Airlin...gh-t197493.html

I fear that Thailand will not even make 13-14 million visitors in 2009 and I doubt if it will reach the target of 15.7 million this year.

Most people do not yet realize how serious the expensive oilprices are and will become in the future and how they relate to tourism in general.

It will change -forever- the travel pattern for 100's of Millions of people all over the world and it will hurt Thailand BIG TIME. 'We' (Farang) always think we are the tourist Champions in Thailand but we are not.

The Ásians are, not us. And the Asians are staying home or in their own area already, more and more. The same pattern is also there in Europe and the US, possibly in Australia and NZ as well.

If oil prices don't go down, worldwide tourism will suffer gigantic.

LaoPo

On what do you base the highlighted statement above? According to figures from the Immigration Bureau, Asian arrivals in 2007 changed as follows from 2006:

East Asia (incl. ASEAN) +0.49%

South Asia +13.27%

Middle East +11.84%

Doesn't look like a decline to me, or maybe you have some figures for the first half of 2008?

My figures are from TAT (same as yours): http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre

Your figure of + 0.49% is correct; however if you deduct LAOS (+84.62%) en MYANMAR (+ 12.12%) you will have a sharp decline from the major incoming East Asian TOURIST countries. The numbers, coming from Laos & Myanmar, are for a great part visa-runners or returning tourists coming back from a tour.

The sharp decline -which exists !- comes from countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Cambodia; all those countries declined.

South Asia and Middle East increased indeed, like Russia but those areas do NOT account for larger numbers of tourism.

I am looking into the larger and broader picture what's happening in the (tourism) world and therefore also Thailand.

And that Sir, is worrying.

If one would take the time and effort to look into the percentages of the past 8 years, those percentages are not very promising for Thailand's tourism....

OK, here is is:

2000 9,5 Mllion* + 10.7% versus 1999 (* I'm leaving the numbers out after the comma)

2001 10.1 Million + 5.78%

2002 10,8 Million + 7.31%

2003 10,0 Million - 7,27%

2004 11.7 Million + 16.42% december 26 - 2004; Tsunami

2005 11.5 Million - 1.45%

2006 13.8 Million +20.01%

2007 14.4 Million + 4.65

2008 PREDICTION: 17.5 to 17.8 Million

The effects of worldwide bear markets, declining economy, rising inflation and rising fuel prices will not -yet- be felt in the total TAT figures/numbers for 2008 but I repeat what I said in my OP: when will -farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

Of course there will be tourists coming to Thailand but the growth in tourism will come to a halt and nobody can stop it.

I think Thailand should be very happy if tourism in 2008 could reach 13.5 - 14,5 million and 11-12 Million in 2009.

LaoPo

[siamamerican]

OK, here is is:

2000 9,5 Mllion* + 10.7% versus 1999 (* I'm leaving the numbers out after the comma)

2001 10.1 Million + 5.78%

2002 10,8 Million + 7.31%

2003 10,0 Million - 7,27%

2004 11.7 Million + 16.42% december 26 - 2004; Tsunami

2005 11.5 Million - 1.45%

2006 13.8 Million +20.01%

2007 14.4 Million + 4.65

2008 PREDICTION: 17.5 to 17.8 Million

The effects of worldwide bear markets, declining economy, rising inflation and rising fuel prices will not -yet- be felt in the total TAT figures/numbers for 2008 but I repeat what I said in my OP: when will -farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

Of course there will be tourists coming to Thailand but the growth in tourism will come to a halt and nobody can stop it.

I think Thailand should be very happy if tourism in 2008 could reach 13.5 - 14,5 million and 11-12 Million in 2009.

LaoPo

Thanks for data I can understand and logic I can follow. I think your OP should have been, " when will growth in tourism come to a halt and start declining".

We have had different opinions about the health of the global economy in previous posts, but I'm beginning to feel we might be in for a major correction which will impact tourism negatively. My guess is the decline will be noticeable sometime in the next 6 months.

You just have to look at America to see the impact of fuel costs and a struggling economy. Hawaii had the nearly 236,000 people from the West Coast of the United States. That area is Hawaii's single largest source of tourists - and their numbers were down 15% from last year.

Tourism will be fine in the long term and I don't think the the decline will last more than a year or two.

Edited July 6, 2008 by siamamerican

[ourmanflint]

I guarantee you'll see it in the next 8-10 weeks!!! No Joke!!

When the traditional summer holidays are taken in August you will see a huge drop in numbers coming from europe and elsewhere. If Thai Airways are pulling routes you can be sure things are just a short hop from getting worse.

And does anyone know why TAT haven't released figures yet for January and February this year?? Why so slow??

Edited July 6, 2008 by ourmanflint

[ourmanflint]

Room occupancy rates are down 20% from this time last year in both Phuket and Koh Samui, both of which are package holiday destinations not just your average backpackers. What more do you want??? 20% is a significant drop if your business is tourism!

The drop is all from the business side of things, many companies have cancelled meetings and conventions, the individuals are still coming in droves, here at the Marriott in Phuket, we are running near full even in the off season, and many of my collegues in the major hotels tell me the same. We are still bringing in $200 plus per night.

Is that right??

Bangkok post 4/07/2008

The number of meeting, incentive, convention and exhibition (Mice) visitors is projected to grow 19% next year from an estimated 970,000 this year, according to the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB). The figure is expected to top one million next year, with revenue of 87.7 billion baht based on estimated spending of 76,000 baht per head per trip, said Nattawut Amornvivat, the TCEB president.

Seems to a difference of opinion I'd say. Or maybe you just pulled that one out of the air.

[ourmanflint]

The only reason for this , is that they are scared!!!

Vigorous Campaign for Thailand's Tourism Year 2008-2009

Thailand is launching a vigorous campaign to promote tourism during its Tourism Year 2008-2009.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on June 14 chaired a seminar on tourism promotion in Chiang Mai, which is the most-visted tourist destination in northern Thailand. The Prime Minister stressed the Government's policy to encourage more "quality" tourists to visit Thailand. He said that Thailand is known for its diverse tourist attractions in all parts of the country. With better management linking tourism networks in a systematic manner, the country would be able to encourage visitors to spend more time, 15 days on average, in Thailand.

Minister of Tourism and Sports Weerasak Kowsurat revealed that Thailand's tourism revenue in 2007 came to 928 billion baht. A target has been set to raise the country's tourism income this year to one trillion baht. Minister Weerasak believed that Thailand would be able to achieve this target, saying that traditional markets would be maintained, while new markets would be explored.

Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Phornsiri Manoharn said that tourist arrivals between January and February this year were 1.4 million a month on average, an increase of 15 percent over the same period last year. The growth rate continues the positive trend and is likely to help improve the country's overall tourism situation.

She believed that the target of 15.7 million foreign tourists this year would be met, although higher oil prices have become a major concern for all parties involved. In order to attract more tourist arrivals, TAT has arranged 30 projects as tourist activities during the low season, from June to September.

The Prime Minister entrusted the Minister of Tourism and Sports with accelerating the construction of the long-awaited Chiang Mai International Exhibition and Convention Center, so that it would be completed in September 2008. The center was one of the mega-projects aimed at promoting tourism in northern Thailand. Apart from boosting tourism, the center will help promote business with Indochina and develop Chiang Mai into a regional economic hub.

The Chiang Mai International Exhibition and Convention Center includes office space, a convention hall, meeting rooms, an exhibition area, and a food court. It will accommodate the meeting, incentive, convention, and exhibition (MICE) business. Thailand is recognized as one of the world-class MICE destinations in Asia. Last year, it earned 55 billion baht from MICE business, a rise of 18 percent over the previous year.

TAT has announced that I-san, or northeastern Thailand, would be its new highlight. Thailand's Tourism Year 2008-2009 will also emphasize I-san to attract more tourist arrivals to this lesser-known region, which is rich in cultural assets and attractions.