So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[LaoPo]

Well....here we go:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/TAT-Lowers-T...ns-t198966.html

Excerpt:

TAT lowers tourism projections

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projections for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

Personally, I think tourism will get a blow already for the rest of 2008. TAT is a bit on the safe side with their predictions for 2009.....of course they are.

LaoPo

[Narachon]

Americans are not the mainstay of Thai tourism anyway.

.....And the way things are going, it will be the Chinese very soon.... Y'all better brush up on your Mandarin....

[LaoPo]

Americans are not the mainstay of Thai tourism anyway.

.....And the way things are going, it will be the Chinese very soon.... Y'all better brush up on your Mandarin....

2007: North & South America accounts for 817.564 visitors or 5.65 % of total Thai tourism; - 0.92 %; US alone 623.638 or 4.31 % which is down -2.66% versus 2006

2007: China: 1.003.141 or 6.94 %; down -2.92% versus 2006

2007: East & South Asia accounts for 60 % of Thai tourism or 8.666.779 visitors

2007: Europe accounts for 25,51 % of total Thai tourism or 3.689.770 visitors

2007: Oceania 5.06% or 731.283 visitors. Aus: 638.126 NZ: 89.928

Grand Total Thai tourism:

2007: 14.464.228 visitors = + 4.65% versus 2006;

growth in 2006 was much higher versus 2005: +20.01 %

LaoPo

Edited July 8, 2008 by LaoPo

[Narachon]

.....And the way things are going, it will be the Chinese very soon.... Y'all better brush up on your Mandarin....

2007: North & South America accounts for 817.564 visitors or 5.65 % of total Thai tourism; - 0.92 %; US alone 623.638 or 4.31 % which is down -2.66% versus 2006

2007: China: 1.003.141 or 6.94 %; down -2.92% versus 2006

2007: East & South Asia accounts for 60 % of Thai tourism or 8.666.779 visitors

2007: Europe accounts for 25,51 % of total Thai tourism or 3.689.770 visitors

2007: Oceania 5.06% or 731.283 visitors. Aus: 638.126 NZ: 89.928

Grand Total Thai tourism:

2007: 14.464.228 visitors = + 4.65% versus 2006;

growth in 2006 was much higher versus 2005: +20.01 %

LaoPo

Wow!

I stand corrected.

So would China count / be included as "East Asia"?

Yes, by your data, Tourism to Thailand is going down across the board it seems now....But I doubt it will stop altogether. Thailand may very well end up also becoming a destination of the rich , famous, and /or well to do...Which Thais Tourist industry may even actually prefer to have in the end...

As an American, Thailand is becoming even more and more remote a vacation destination, now with fuel prices rising worlwide.

I was supposed to return to Thailand this summmer for a month, but I opted to go to Costa Rica and Hawaii instead - for the same Thai plane flight price mind you....

Tourismwise, hopefully next year things may be different...Hopefully...But I doubt it...

[LaoPo]

.....And the way things are going, it will be the Chinese very soon.... Y'all better brush up on your Mandarin....

2007: North & South America accounts for 817.564 visitors or 5.65 % of total Thai tourism; - 0.92 %; US alone 623.638 or 4.31 % which is down -2.66% versus 2006

2007: China: 1.003.141 or 6.94 %; down -2.92% versus 2006

2007: East & South Asia accounts for 60 % of Thai tourism or 8.666.779 visitors

2007: Europe accounts for 25,51 % of total Thai tourism or 3.689.770 visitors

2007: Oceania 5.06% or 731.283 visitors. Aus: 638.126 NZ: 89.928

Grand Total Thai tourism:

2007: 14.464.228 visitors = + 4.65% versus 2006;

growth in 2006 was much higher versus 2005: +20.01 %

LaoPo

So would China count / be included as "East Asia"?

Yes, by your data, Tourism to Thailand is going down across the board it seems now....But I doubt it will stop altogether. Thailand may very well end up also becoming a destination of the rich , famous, and /or well to do...Which Thais Tourist industry may even actually prefer to have in the end...

Yes; the China count is/was included in the East & South Asia number, above; China is considered to be East Asia.

But, I doubt that Thailand will ever be a destination for the rich and famous/or well to do with their Ferrari's, Bentley's, Porsche Cayenne's and (mega) Yachts.

It lacks the infra structure and jetset destinations like the Côte d'Azur in France, parts of Italy and Spain and Caribbean, California and the like.

If one has seen/visited the European destinations they will know what I mean. It's a combination of places like Cannes, Monaco, Nice, Marbella, Puerto Banus in the summer and Caribbean islands in winter.

Thailand has no places like that where the rich and famous meet each other; the climate is not suitable for them to meet in summer; too humid and too hot, apart from the lack of culture, centuries old castles, cities and villages and old beautiful 5* hotels.

But Thailand has it's own charms and can't be compared.

LaoPo

Edited July 8, 2008 by LaoPo

[Heng]

But, I doubt that Thailand will ever be a destination for the rich and famous/or well to do with their Ferrari's, Bentley's, Porsche Cayenne's and (mega) Yachts.

I know there's a significant market that cruise around in their yachts, but I wasn't aware that there was a segment that brought their cars along with them on holiday?

[meom]

Wow!

I stand corrected.

So would China count / be included as "East Asia"?

Yes, by your data, Tourism to Thailand is going down across the board it seems now....

It would be interesting to see figures regarding duration of stay. Maybe numbers go down but if the people that do visit stay longer then that sort of compensates things or not?

[LaoPo]

But, I doubt that Thailand will ever be a destination for the rich and famous/or well to do with their Ferrari's, Bentley's, Porsche Cayenne's and (mega) Yachts.

I know there's a significant market that cruise around in their yachts, but I wasn't aware that there was a segment that brought their cars along with them on holiday?

Many do, but most of them have their cars driven to the destination and fly over themselves OR have cars already at their villas.

'Normal' tourists drive themselves and there are many millions of them. France is still the largest tourist country in the world; some 75 million visitors per year.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

It would be interesting to see figures regarding duration of stay. Maybe numbers go down but if the people that do visit stay longer then that sort of compensates things or not?

You can find those numbers at TAT statistics.

Just look under "International" and than click on: Average length of stay of International tourist arrivals

here:

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre

LaoPo

[Sir Burr]

The increase in price of long haul flights is such a small percentage of the total money spent on the entire holiday, that for most people, it won't make any difference.

Expect a small dip in tourist numbers.

[bkkjames]

The increase in price of long haul flights is such a small percentage of the total money spent on the entire holiday, that for most people, it won't make any difference.

Expect a small dip in tourist numbers.

And that's the reason why airlines are cancelling / cutting back on the number of long haul services? I don't agree. Thailand is a Grade B tourist destination overall - meaning it doesnt attract the super rich but moreover the middle class type income earner. This demographic is / will be affected by the large fare increases for flights to this part of the world. Airlines won't dump prices on long haul, they will dump capacity and fill up what flights they have with those willing to pay the extra $

Ask anyone here who normally takes a flight back to the UK / Europe during this time of year on an annual basis the differences in fares this July / August compared to last year. I am sure it's the same coming here from there.

Also, while the fuel cost / additional charges from airlines is one thing, the increasing costs on the ground all add up to fewer people IMO. With inflation at 10% across the board here, everything related to the travel and tourism industry is going up as well. These are always passed onto the end user.

The only upside potential I see it that some hotels (faced with fewer advance bookings) will begin to offer significant discounts to fill up rooms thus offsetting the increased airfares stemming from the fuel cost situation.

[Heng]

But, I doubt that Thailand will ever be a destination for the rich and famous/or well to do with their Ferrari's, Bentley's, Porsche Cayenne's and (mega) Yachts.

I know there's a significant market that cruise around in their yachts, but I wasn't aware that there was a segment that brought their cars along with them on holiday?

Many do, but most of them have their cars driven to the destination and fly over themselves OR have cars already at their villas.

LaoPo

Yeah, here in the LOS it's mostly the latter, I'm not sure how'd they'd go about getting people to drive their cars over and not sure if that segment would be significant considering the distances involved, which is why I asked.

[meom]

It would be interesting to see figures regarding duration of stay. Maybe numbers go down but if the people that do visit stay longer then that sort of compensates things or not?

You can find those numbers at TAT statistics.

Just look under "International" and than click on: Average length of stay of International tourist arrivals

here:

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre

LaoPo

Thanks.

Had a look at the site and it seems average duration that tourists stay gets marginally longer:

2004: 8.13 days

2005: 8.2 days

2006: 8.62 days

2007 jan -may: 9.66

[Nick100]

Well prob eliminate the Chav masses from coming, everyone else will be fine.

One can only hope! I've only been here 5 years or so (coming and going for 10) and the upsurge in chav-tourism has been only too obvious. Immigration should immediately deport all arrivals from the UK sporting fake Burberry

[stevehaigh]

I'm not entirely sure that a reduction in tourism is that big a deal for those of that have retired here. A few bars etc. may close from lack of business but that does not really impact me. Housing stops selling, ho hum I have no desire to sell mine anyway. Some of the people will lose their jobs, they have my sympathy but other than reducing the number of people on the street and in the mall, I don't see the impact on the retiree.

Don't misinterpet this to mean I don't care about the Thai people I do, but it is something we have no control over. If the cost of living rises here from it, it is doubtfull that it will rise any more than it will in the US, Europe or Australia.

Keep in mind here they are very family oriented. If they lose their job they can most likely go to their home village and move in with the relatives. More people live together they split the cost and suffer less. So i would like to see Thailand prosper but if it dosen't it does not impact my income or my lifestyle all that much.

it doesn't bother me personally to see less tourists either but most of my friends have tourism related business and here in Ko Phangan there certainly seems to be a big decline in visitors. however, the big looses are going to be the banks. they are lending billions of baht to build massive 5 start resorts that all seem to end up having about 1% occupancy rates.

[stevehaigh]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

On the 17th of July 2143. You can take my word for it.

Bellini, it will happen much earlier than that...let's say the 1st of July, 2143. Get it right man!!!!!!

its already 2551 are there are still farangs here!

[cloudhopper]

... however, the big looses are going to be the banks. they are lending billions of baht to build massive 5 start resorts that all seem to end up having about 1% occupancy rates.

Spot on IMO!

[ourmanflint]

The increase in price of long haul flights is such a small percentage of the total money spent on the entire holiday, that for most people, it won't make any difference.

Expect a small dip in tourist numbers.

Brits scrap summer holidays as credit crunch becomes a concern

23 July 2008

http://www.easier.com/view/Finance/Househo...cle-191949.html

A quarter of British adults (24 per cent) are shelving their holiday plans this year, with 43 per cent of them worried about the impact of the credit crunch on their finances according to a study by CreditExpert.co.uk, the online credit monitoring service from Experian. Those who do choose to take a break will pay the price, with over two and a half million British adults getting into debt each time they go away - twice as many as this time last year.

Like I said a while back the change in tourist figures will be immediate and severe.

[LaoPo]

The increase in price of long haul flights is such a small percentage of the total money spent on the entire holiday, that for most people, it won't make any difference.

Expect a small dip in tourist numbers.

Brits scrap summer holidays as credit crunch becomes a concern

23 July 2008

http://www.easier.com/view/Finance/Househo...cle-191949.html

A quarter of British adults (24 per cent) are shelving their holiday plans this year, with 43 per cent of them worried about the impact of the credit crunch on their finances according to a study by CreditExpert.co.uk, the online credit monitoring service from Experian. Those who do choose to take a break will pay the price, with over two and a half million British adults getting into debt each time they go away - twice as many as this time last year.

Like I said a while back the change in tourist figures will be immediate and severe.

Correct; it's not just Thailand's tourism coming to a halt (in growth). In Spain for instance restaurants, bars and shops are complaining. Many restaurants do not even reach 50% of their turnover of last year and...it's HIGH season now.

LaoPo

[Chaimai]

... however, the big looses are going to be the banks. they are lending billions of baht to build massive 5 start resorts that all seem to end up having about 1% occupancy rates.

Spot on IMO!

Crap ! - nothing personal.

In the UK in 1990's the banks lost £28 billion - they recovered it in 3 years. HSBC bought Midland when it was in the s.h.i.t. and got it's £4 bn back in less than 4 years.

Note to world - the banks don't lose - unless you are Barings (fraud), BCCI (Scrottish councils who thought they could beat the system for interest returns) Northern Rock (unlucky, government incompetence, poor funding strategy) and numerous greedy American banks........:-

1Continental Illinois1984$40B2IndyMac Bank2008$32B3Bank of New England1991$21.7B4American S&L1988$5.4B5First Republic Bank1988$4B

Didn't see Bear Stearns in there but they took a few flyers as well - chai mai ?

[qwertz]

Don't worry - there will always be sexpats to save the day.

[selftaopath]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

As soon as the mandatory Chastity Belt Law takes effect.

I think that is "the bottom line."

[BusyBee123]

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

As soon as the mandatory Chastity Belt Law takes effect.

I think that is "the bottom line."

well that's that then, 7 pages of going around in circles and the answer lay in the first response, i'm glad that's sorted

[cyborg22]

Maybe the A380 configured with 600+ seats is not a bad idea after all and Airbus got it so right?

I do think the highers costs will drive some away at the margin - as I said in another thread a couple of years ago you could do London Bangkok for 350 GBP which was very cheap

I flew to Thailand in may this year, Total cost 397gbp with qatar airways. I thimk i mentioned in another thread that the cheap flights are still there if you are prepared to look.

The main expence in going to Thailand is the airfare. Everything else is very cheap, Unless your a stupid farang. (sure you know what i mean).

I had to go to madrid not so long ago it cost me an arm and a leg to stay there, In one week i spent more than i would in one month in Thailand and that didn't include the hotel.

Maybe the thai tourist board should be promoting that fact.

Cy

Ps i also have a flight back to bkk in august with qatar again 435gbp including all charges just as my flight in may was.

[cyborg22]

Forgot to say..... I love chavs......

But couldn't eat a whole one

Cy

[buffcoat]

In my view the bulk of farang tourism will only end when the cost of travel becomes prohibitive as many others on here have noted.

If the return economy fare in today's prices was £2,000 to Euro or US the farang tourist would become a rarity (the seriously loaded would still come and TAT would have their much desired high end tourists).

The corrollary would be an increase in Asian tourists for whom LOS would be a shorthaul destination.

If I knew when the oil price will hit $300/barrell I would be an oil trader and make my millions but the economic driver for rising energy price remains in force and shows no sign of fading

[ourmanflint]

Just tried to book a flight to Bangkok for October, and cheapest I could get direct was £624 ($1248). The same last year was just £422!!

I think that's enough of a hike to put a lot of people off don't you think??

[LaoPo]

Just tried to book a flight to Bangkok for October, and cheapest I could get direct was £624 ($1248). The same last year was just £422!!

I think that's enough of a hike to put a lot of people off don't you think??

It will get worse I'm afraid.

The rising fuel prices* and local (country) taxes AND fewer planes/seats makes it logical to increased seat prices.

* curious if airlines will lower the prices since oil dropped substantially the past few weeks.

LaoPo

[Chaimai]

Just tried to book a flight to Bangkok for October, and cheapest I could get direct was £624 ($1248). The same last year was just £422!!

I think that's enough of a hike to put a lot of people off don't you think??

Did you book it ?

If you did, then clearly it is not a deterrent - chai mai ?

If you didn't book it then it is a deterrent

(PS - October LHR to BKK I got for £454. In the words of Freddy Laker - "Book Early")

[ourmanflint]

Did you book it ?

If you did, then clearly it is not a deterrent - chai mai ?

If you didn't book it then it is a deterrent

(PS - October LHR to BKK I got for £454. In the words of Freddy Laker - "Book Early")

I didn't book it! The flight was actually £319 return, plus tax £305.

Maybe next year??