Inflation, Recession, Condo Prices

[pkrv]

Interest rates in Thai accounts are now 4% if you want. Check out CD accounts.

well if they are, then thais are Stupid to sit on property that are not going up in price, and losing rent

As explained earlier, some people, and it seems much more common in Asia, are not that interested in short or even medium term gains. They are looking forward across multiple generations. These is a concept so alien to the current idea of short term gains and rapid turnover of property, that the only reaction people seem to be able to have is to call it stupid.

Note that in many cases these are the families ones that end up owning the most valuable property in the very long term. But how many western property speculators today think about their yet unborn great grandchildren.

TH

Totally correct in that many Asians have a much longer term perspective and there are other cultural and environmental factors why they like to own land and property too.

Thing is though you see reported the decendants squabbling weekly here in Singapore over the will's and properties of their parents and grandparents - from small flats right up to large office blocks it a national pastime

I liked these perspectives, and I agree with them - I would hazard a guess on a couple of other points. Buying property for your children does (to some extent there are always idiotic exceptions) ensure their future. However it also 'parks' money outside of tax collection and keeps the money under direct family control. Hence you are not necessarily funding that which you do not agree with.

Perhaps that is why the 'controlled press' in Singapore prints such triviality, rather than explore its own failings as a democracy. On the exercise of such family based control on a much larger scale (democracy, key industry, resources etc) such people would find this property purchase activity a threat! After all someone may one day have sufficient resources to ask for democracy and win!

Plenty of resources in Singapore to ask for what they want - it seems to be outsiders though that are so concerned with the idea of imposing their ideology of Democracy in Singapore - the Singaporeans themselves do not seem to want the multi-party democracy we in the west desire or see as an ideal - one mans meat and all that.

It might even go further than that now with the Chinese model of economic growth being so successful - they are even lecturing the Yankee's now showing their growth model is superior and might just be better for developing nations than the miserably failed Washington Consensus model

From a UK perspective it’s an interesting one, and especially important to look for to see where a society is going - Property is key to personal wealth and this was for example noted by Nazi Germany. Essentially by making Jews Illegal they became less than human, and in a very 'human' way the Nazis stole all their property and personal wealth. So logically if you note a subset of society is made illegal say in Singapore (Gays) then these groups too are less than human and can logically have their wealth/personal liberty stolen (because it will not be illegal to do so).

It is all a matter of time - by removing humanity from a minority you can take from them - as such IMO property has long term stability issues in what is meant to be a civilized country. Is much said/openly debated about regarding the issue of dehumanising a minority in the mainstream Singapore press (I somehow doubt it ) ?

[WilliamCave]

I read somewhere in the Bangkokpost or the Nation in the past 2 or 3 weeks that 5o% of the Condo construction down town will go bankrupt this year. Make sure it is finished.

[Prakanong]

Dehumanising gay's and stealing their wealth in Singapore - I think someone is kidding you on a bit here.

As for equating singapore with Nazi Germany your moral compass must be sitting on a magnet.

[pkrv]

Dehumanising gay's and stealing their wealth in Singapore - I think someone is kidding you on a bit here.

As for equating singapore with Nazi Germany your moral compass must be sitting on a magnet.

Ohh don't be silly - If you were to compare the two you would have to say the streets clean, no dropouts, trains on time and most definitely economic miracles! Good for condominiums, just I wouldn't buy there. With all its turbulence, Bangkok for me thanks!

[steveromagnino]

I read somewhere in the Bangkokpost or the Nation in the past 2 or 3 weeks that 5o% of the Condo construction down town will go bankrupt this year. Make sure it is finished.

Article was actually that 50% of the inventory of condos in this year would be unsold (which is not surprising that some percentage would be in the process of being sold) and TV posters took this to be all doom and gloom not helped by the inept rant from whichever newspaper picked up the PR piece for Ideo.

Best to ignore, total load of rubbish!

[whatsoever]

I read somewhere in the Bangkokpost or the Nation in the past 2 or 3 weeks that 5o% of the Condo construction down town will go bankrupt this year. Make sure it is finished.

Article was actually that 50% of the inventory of condos in this year would be unsold (which is not surprising that some percentage would be in the process of being sold) and TV posters took this to be all doom and gloom not helped by the inept rant from whichever newspaper picked up the PR piece for Ideo.

Best to ignore, total load of rubbish!

Reported in BKK Post this week that many developers are abandoning ongoing projects due to ever increasing costs of raw materials etc. (suppose that is also rubbish )

[pkrv]

I read somewhere in the Bangkokpost or the Nation in the past 2 or 3 weeks that 5o% of the Condo construction down town will go bankrupt this year. Make sure it is finished.

Article was actually that 50% of the inventory of condos in this year would be unsold (which is not surprising that some percentage would be in the process of being sold) and TV posters took this to be all doom and gloom not helped by the inept rant from whichever newspaper picked up the PR piece for Ideo.

Best to ignore, total load of rubbish!

Reported in BKK Post this week that many developers are abandoning ongoing projects due to ever increasing costs of raw materials etc. (suppose that is also rubbish )

Do you have the link? Was that abandoning part way through or rescheduling? There is a big difference.

[whatsoever]

I read somewhere in the Bangkokpost or the Nation in the past 2 or 3 weeks that 5o% of the Condo construction down town will go bankrupt this year. Make sure it is finished.

Article was actually that 50% of the inventory of condos in this year would be unsold (which is not surprising that some percentage would be in the process of being sold) and TV posters took this to be all doom and gloom not helped by the inept rant from whichever newspaper picked up the PR piece for Ideo.

Best to ignore, total load of rubbish!

Reported in BKK Post this week that many developers are abandoning ongoing projects due to ever increasing costs of raw materials etc. (suppose that is also rubbish )

Do you have the link? Was that abandoning part way through or rescheduling? There is a big difference.

Ongoing - means ongoing! The photo shown in the article showed ongoing construction! Sorry dont have a link

[Prakanong]

Dehumanising gay's and stealing their wealth in Singapore - I think someone is kidding you on a bit here.

As for equating singapore with Nazi Germany your moral compass must be sitting on a magnet.

Ohh don't be silly - If you were to compare the two you would have to say the streets clean, no dropouts, trains on time and most definitely economic miracles! Good for condominiums, just I wouldn't buy there. With all its turbulence, Bangkok for me thanks!

It was you who was being silly - dehumanising gays etc and removing propery rights.

This was from a conversation about family squabbles over property and a longer term perspective - seems someones paranoid or misinformed

Edited July 3, 2008 by Prakanong

[pkrv]

Condominiums to get costlier says The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/07/01...ss_30076914.php

Hi whatsoever and steveromagnino. One of the things we are missing here is that vast amounts of information go down the drain on multiple threads as those who try to throw in their own view point, for example as a bonkers starter causes problems. I note the title to this thread is actually neutral and asks

Where do you see condo prices being in 2 years?

I agree I throw in my opinions but if we are referencing external information as a part of our arguments and dont reference it, it IMO becomes a personal comment. I am sorry but it is human nature to manipulate to our own advantage (and I am no exception). Without a cross reference (link) we are IMO sort of stuck.

[pkrv]

Dehumanising gay's and stealing their wealth in Singapore - I think someone is kidding you on a bit here.

As for equating singapore with Nazi Germany your moral compass must be sitting on a magnet.

Ohh don't be silly - If you were to compare the two you would have to say the streets clean, no dropouts, trains on time and most definitely economic miracles! Good for condominiums, just I wouldn't buy there. With all its turbulence, Bangkok for me thanks!

It was you who was being silly - dehumanising gays etc and removing propery rights.

This was from a conversation about family squabbles over property and a longer term perspective - seems someones paranoid or misinformed

I am going to hazard a guess that you are Singaporean? (I am from the UK). Apologies if this is not the case!

IMO There is a 'massive cultural divide' between Singapore and Thailand. You clearly have an interest in Thailand (otherwise you would not contribute to Thaivisa). From my perspective it is a very great and tolerant country that offers freehold (condominiums) to Farangs and will allow me to retire in style with my Farang partner. I have noticed Singaporeans taking an interest in Thailand and suspect it is from a commercial perspective, but is there a freedom perspective as well?

I am afraid you miss read my post. It was what was under the hood that mattered with both societies and how they achieved it.

There is an old black and white film dated 1961 called, The Victim

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victim_(film)

It deals with the honour of being subject to blackmail because you are illegal, apparently most blackmail cases were targeted at this group, effectively it was legalised via bigotry. And of course dealt with institutionalised suicide. Whilst I feel sure that being made illegal leaves all gays in Singapore as happy as pigs in shit, and not at all subject to social 'distortions' that govern pay and rights (these are of course fully documented?), if you believe this to be the case then I rest my case - Singapore no way!

Good grief economically advanced yes, errr the rest of the world started dealing with social mechanics almost half a century ago. Time to grow up?

Watch the very old 1961 black and white film, though I am afraid it may be 'illegal' in Singapore.

[pkrv]

Hmm link no longer works

Try this one instead

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0055597/

Edited July 3, 2008 by pkrv

[Prakanong]

Not Singaporean - I am as English as they come from good old County Durham.

Your distorted view of Singapore is very amusing - I am sitting here having a little laugh to myself.

Have you read "Singapore Swing"?

[Humphrey Bear]

Prices don't seem to get driven down because of Thais reluctance to sell at a loss. At very worst they will stay at 100,000

When we bought our house I was in the Land Office with wife, lawyer and a couple of Thai friends.

We agreed with the seller the price that would be declared and on the certified cheque that had to be shown.

There was a lot of discussion on this because if you go too high over the previous owner's purchase price there is a larger tax (such as capital gains) to pay. But the Land Office will not accept a purchase price lower than the previous, as then there is no tax to pay and a possible demand for a refund. Doesn't work within the structure of property registration in Thailand.

So don't blame the individual Thai property sellers - it's the system that works against market forces.

[pkrv]

Singapore Swing - Yes I have, I believe the term Facile is appropriate.

There has been an interesting series of developments on the property forum regarding leasehold. At the moment we have a 49% quota for Farangs and 51% quota for Thais. It would appear that Thai flippers buy into the Farang quota to ensure success in on selling.

Oddly though it seems that if the condominium is leasehold Farangs can buy 100%. There is no cap. (included in the discussion here:)

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Condominiums...No-t196634.html

It looks like a new development Sukhothai almost immediately sold its 49% Farang quota but only about 50% of its Thai quota. Given market forces it may be the remaining Thai quota units could now be sold as leasehold.

I must confess I was always concerned with the market distortion introduced by the 49/51% rule but it would appear that it can now be bypassed legally. A shame IMO that the rule is just not simply scrapped it is causing a mess/sales hurdle, and now serves no purpose.

This development could add a serious impetus to condominium sales in Thailand.

Edited July 4, 2008 by pkrv

[Zombienation]

Inflation predicted to be over 10% for 08/09 suggests a slowdown is coming. The averages Thais wages aren't going to stretch so far...so I assume condo buying is going to be less in vogue.

Regardless, condos in BKK are very overpriced for what they are. An adjustment is due.

[pkrv]

Inflation predicted to be over 10% for 08/09 suggests a slowdown is coming. The averages Thais wages aren't going to stretch so far...so I assume condo buying is going to be less in vogue.

Regardless, condos in BKK are very overpriced for what they are. An adjustment is due.

It depends if people in the West/G7 countries cut and run under similar market conditions, and are facing retirement with pensions stolen and the need to move assets (pensions are a dead duck in the UK) - Interesting times ahead.

[ourmanflint]

Can anyone tell me where the 100 000Bt sqm figure comes from as most external investors would put that figure nearer 75000bt sqm and dropping!!

Thai property prices have dropped moderately from the average of US$2,520 per sq. m for Bangkok apartments to US$2,384 per sq. m. Nevertheless, gross rental income on apartments stayed within the same range at 7.4% average.

Thanks

[donx]

Can anyone tell me where the 100 000Bt sqm figure comes from as most external investors would put that figure nearer 75000bt sqm and dropping!!

Thai property prices have dropped moderately from the average of US$2,520 per sq. m for Bangkok apartments to US$2,384 per sq. m. Nevertheless, gross rental income on apartments stayed within the same range at 7.4% average.

Thanks

100,000 baht/m2 is approximately what members on this forum say they paid for recently delivered condos in both The Park Childom and the Athenee Residence.

[pkrv]

Can anyone tell me where the 100 000Bt sqm figure comes from as most external investors would put that figure nearer 75000bt sqm and dropping!!

Thai property prices have dropped moderately from the average of US$2,520 per sq. m for Bangkok apartments to US$2,384 per sq. m. Nevertheless, gross rental income on apartments stayed within the same range at 7.4% average.

Thanks

100,000 baht/m2 is approximately what members on this forum say they paid for recently delivered condos in both The Park Childom and the Athenee Residence.

100,000 baht/m2 was the price ceiling in 2005. The price ceiling now appears to be more in the region of 200-300k THB. Clearly you can buy for substantially less than this.

[think_too_mut]

Perhaps that is why the 'controlled press' in Singapore prints such triviality, rather than explore its own failings as a democracy. On the exercise of such family based control on a much larger scale (democracy, key industry, resources etc) such people would find this property purchase activity a threat! After all someone may one day have sufficient resources to ask for democracy and win!

You don't have much of an idea about Singapore. They don't give a flying (FLYING) <deleted> about western idea of democracy.

Like Japanese, where the country is a nominal democracy but with 1 party rulling the country for 50+ years, since the Americans left.

Then, it would be too much to expect you to know anything about HDB in Singapore. That is how 90% of population lives there. Speculators, hawkers or flat out criminals in real estate won't have much of a joy there.

If you had something (so well organized and in public favor, like everything else in Singapore is) in BKK there would be only rental section, openly aimed at expats in Bangkok to browse through.

Singapore condominiums - HDB

True, there are developments but hardly anyone other than very wealthy and price insensitive locals or HKG, Malaysia Chinese or Middle Easterners would look at them.

Edited July 9, 2008 by think_too_mut

[pkrv]

Perhaps that is why the 'controlled press' in Singapore prints such triviality, rather than explore its own failings as a democracy. On the exercise of such family based control on a much larger scale (democracy, key industry, resources etc) such people would find this property purchase activity a threat! After all someone may one day have sufficient resources to ask for democracy and win!

You don't have much of an idea about Singapore. They don't give a flying (FLYING) <deleted> about western idea of democracy.

Like Japanese, where the country is a nominal democracy but with 1 party rulling the country for 50+ years, since the Americans left.

Then, it would be too much to expect you to know anything about HDB in Singapore. That is how 90% of population lives there. Speculators, hawkers or flat out criminals in real estate won't have much of a joy there.

If you had something (so well organized and in public favor, like everything else in Singapore is) in BKK there would be only rental section, openly aimed at expats in Bangkok to browse through.

Singapore condominiums - HDB

True, there are developments but hardly anyone other than very wealthy and price insensitive locals or HKG, Malaysia Chinese or Middle Easterners would look at them.

OMG I didn't realise it was THAT BAD. I knew that when the daughter of 'the owner' of Singapore threw horse shit in the UK house of commons and when BFBS (British Forces Broadcasting Service) transmitted the news story in Singapore the station was surrounded by armed troops.

You know I think we are in agreement it’s a shit place! Bangkok for me!

[think_too_mut]

You know I think we are in agreement it’s a shit place! Bangkok for me!

We are in agreement it's a shit place but I don't know why you insist it is for you.

I have ties to BKK but I would never think or say it's the place for me.

[pkrv]

You know I think we are in agreement it's a shit place! Bangkok for me!

We are in agreement it's a shit place but I don't know why you insist it is for you.

I have ties to BKK but I would never think or say it's the place for me.

think_too_mut - OK I can formally confirm we think in completely different ways. I am sorry but yes whilst I will consider all options Singapore briefly came to my attention. From that point on I simply took the piss out of it. GOD (no pun intended) it is crap.

OK we are at odds on Bangkok. It is me - IMO it is a multicultural dynamic city that is growing - that is me. Singapore is sterile culturally, philosophically, spiritually, and in just about any other way you care to name. Sorry for being so facetious.

[teej]

You know I think we are in agreement it’s a shit place! Bangkok for me!

We are in agreement it's a shit place but I don't know why you insist it is for you.

I have ties to BKK but I would never think or say it's the place for me.

It appears that you two aren't in agreement at all!

think_too_mut I believe pkrv was referring to Singapore as the "shit place" whereas that place is clearly BKK for you!

pkrv what's your big beef with Singapore? Have you been directly harassed there because of your "lifestyle" ? I do think it a bit much to claim that Singapore is actively "dehumanizing gays." I've met plenty of gay Singaporeans working in Fashion and they don't seem to feel oppressed in any way. What's the dilly-yo?

[trajan]

I read in the news that consumer inflation rates are topping 8% per annum (and may result in avg 7% for 2008?) that together with rising construction material costs, oil prices etc. will likely lead to higher condo prices in 2 yrs in prime prime central locations IMO.

[pkrv]

It appears that you two aren't in agreement at all!

You are astute. No. BUT think_too_mut does contribute to this forum. All any of us can do is pass on information to each other.

"I've met plenty of gay Singaporeans working in Fashion and they don't seem to feel oppressed in any way. What's the dilly-yo?

Oh type cast how quaint. Have the laws changed or are they even debated? I think not. This is the fundamental measure of humanity it is no longer 'how we treat prisoners' that counts, it is how we treat human beings that does. Does that answer your question?

Edited July 9, 2008 by pkrv

[teej]

It appears that you two aren't in agreement at all!

You are astute. No. BUT think_too_mut does contribute to this forum. All any of us can do is pass on information to each other.

My kindergarten teacher even then described me as "astute" on my report card. It appears you see what you want to see. Where were you when all think_too_mut did was bash Thailand, bash Thai condos, with all kind of comments ala "oh nasty dirty thailand, if you want mangy soi dogs at your door step, you can have them?" Think too had an attitude very similar to bingobongo (for whom I see you've jumped on the hater bandwagon, kissing Naam's ass all the way). I'm not making this up either -- and you do come off as an ass-kisser, your sexual preferences notwithstanding.

"I've met plenty of gay Singaporeans working in Fashion and they don't seem to feel oppressed in any way. What's the dilly-yo?

Oh type cast how quaint. Have the laws changed or are they even debated? I think not. This is the fundamental measure of humanity it is no longer 'how we treat prisoners' that counts, it is how we treat human beings that does. Does that answer your question?

No. Not at all. So you choose to live in Thailand because you believe that this country, with regard to the "fundamental measure of humanity" (how we treat human beings, in your words) treats it's residents better than Singapore threats it's own?? Really?? You sure about that?? Thailand, Paragon of Human Rights. Yeah right. Extra-judicial killings? Rampant corruption and poverty? Equality among citizens? You can't be serious. If you consider "how we treat human beings" as the "fundamental measure of humanity" then Singapore beats Thailand on all counts. Period. Simply put, Singapore is a more civilized society. And the degree to which any given country is civilized, I would argue, is very highly correlated to the "treatment of human beings." Please don't go down the "well, that all depends on what you think is civilized" route, it will just make you look bad.

Type cast? When was I type-casting? I was stating a fact, given my experience as a model (modeling is is the fashion biz, agreed?) for over 7 years (the last 4 or so having been in Asia, where I've met a lot of Singaporeans, who happen to be gay. And none have expressed any discontent or experience with the Government "dehumanizing" or practicing "stealing property" from them. That was a point based on my experience which you conveniently blow-off as me type-casting. Maybe you didn't have the full information that I worked in Fashion, hence my experience, but you still replied like somebody with a chip on their shoulder about something.

Which leads to the question about why you feel so strongly about Singapore, and it remains unanswered. Singapore isn't my favorite city either, but you've made some pretty serious claims in the realm of human rights violations, which begs the question, "What did Singapore do to you to make you feel this way?" I posited that it may have been a negative experience given your sexual orientation which you didn't address. Rather, you responded rather rather bitterly for asking you a simple question.

Please don't repond with a non-response like "we're off topic." You've made some pretty hefty accusations about Singapore, and I think you should be held accountable by citing your reasons, at the very least. I just want to know why you feel so strongly about it.

P.S. IMO condo prices in Thailand in 2 years will be higher than they are now for new projects, in any given area with similar quality of those built today in that same area. That's just plain economics (on topic). Notice I said "new." Used properties exist outside of the realm of economic theory.

[ourmanflint]

100,000 baht/m2 is approximately what members on this forum say they paid for recently delivered condos in both The Park Childom and the Athenee Residence.

I'm still confused! Are you saying that this represents the top of the market or an average price per sqm? And property prices in Bnagkok are falling aren't they? Or do you all think that property will keep rising for the foreseeable future??

[donx]

100,000 baht/m2 is approximately what members on this forum say they paid for recently delivered condos in both The Park Childom and the Athenee Residence.

I'm still confused! Are you saying that this represents the top of the market or an average price per sqm? And property prices in Bnagkok are falling aren't they? Or do you all think that property will keep rising for the foreseeable future??

As pkrv stated, 100,000 baht/m2 was the top of the market price in 2005 when projects such as The Park and Athenee were started. The top of the market has gone beyond 200,000 (if I remember correctly) with such high end projects as Sukhothai and The River. From what I am seeing people posting here, it appears that prices are falling for some projects (e.g. The Manhattan) while others are rising (The Park and Athenee). New high end projects that are starting now are more expensive than high end projects that are completed. Building costs have gone up and developers are pricing new developments accordingly.

In my opinion, the real estate market as a whole in Thailand is difficult to gauge. Thais hold onto properties for years on end. I had a friend who moved into a building over 10 years old near the Ari BTS. The condo she bought was vacant for 6 years. The seller held onto it as collateral against a loan she used for her business. She didn't even bother to rent it out. When my friend moved in, all of the utilities had to be replaced because they hadn't been used for 6 years.