TAT Lowers Tourism Projections

[george]

TAT lowers tourism projections

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projections for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or 10-per-cent growth, the TAT now expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT has also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from 38,760 baht this year to 39,375 next year. The revenue projection for this year is 600 billion baht.

The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips, with revenue of 407 billion baht.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty, and fewer flights into the Kingdom.

He said the travel industry, especially the long-haul segment, would be affected as the oil price could climb to US$200 (6,800 baht) per barrel.

-- The Nation 2008-07-08

[LaoPo]

TAT lowers tourism projections

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or 10-per-cent growth, the TAT now expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

I'm afraid 15 million visitors will not be reached in 2008 and 16 million for 2009 is 'optimistic'.

2007 had 14,4 million.

There was a report elsewhere that Phuket had a -20% drop of Israeli tourists since the beginning of this year, versus 2007.

If that's a trend.....better fasten the seat belts.

It's a pity TAT doesn't suppply (yet) the numbers from January to June; the first 6 months, although they MUST have access to those figures......but won't release them....

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Those figures are still being "cooked." It's a slow baking process that TAT prefers to utilize with its recipes.

btw, how were the tourist arrival figures for the TAT international film festival this year? Without the graft involved with that over previous years, I would presume less interest and attendees.

Edited July 8, 2008 by sriracha john

[h90]

if it goes down it might be good to wake up people.

Dirty rip off, killing all the environment......

[stumonster]

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty, and fewer flights into the Kingdom.

large job cuts are now starting to be seen in the western economies - I am sure those people don't care what the price for airline flights are.

[brahmburgers]

".........due to soaring oil prices."

it's doubtful oil prices have nearly as much to do with tourist numbers - as other factors, such as:

>>> fees for parks predicated on a person's physical features.

>>>> safety standards (tourists getting shot by cops doesn't bode well for Thailand's image)

>>>> katoy harrassing tourists in Pattaya and Phuket

>>>>> trash-lined beaches

>>>> Rule of thumb, the more tourists per sq.M, the more surly the locals attitude towards them (unless money is being spent right then and there).

Granted, there are many good things to say about visiting Thailand, but TAT"s assertion that flagging numbers are due to oil prices is simplistic at best.

If TAT folded it's tent and dismissed all its workers tomorrow, it wouldn't have an affect on # of tourists coming here. TAT spends lots of money (advertising etc) trying to lure top end spenders, but the strategy is flawed and doesn't work well. It's about as effective as the Elite Card program which is also a failure.

[jumnien]

In less than a decade, tourist numbers in Thailand have gone from 7 million to double that. There is no stopping the tide washing upon our shores!

[slapout]

It may be more hindrence than help for thailand what that tide is bringing onto the shores in many cases.

[johnwills]

From what I have read in the English press there are now an estimated 4 million families using credit cards and other loans to cover their mortgage debt every month, I doubt these people will have any spare income to spend on holidays. If the trend continues then I am sure we start to see the number of tourists dropping, not only in Asia but in Europe and the Americas also. Tough times ahead for the tourist industry.

[Tony Clifton]

In less than a decade, tourist numbers in Thailand have gone from 7 million to double that. There is no stopping the tide plastic washing upon our shores!

[Rinrada]

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty, and fewer flights into the Kingdom.

large job cuts are now starting to be seen in the western economies - I am sure those people don't care what the price for airline flights are.

The Doom ...The Gloom.....the Credit Crunch Swoonj......

Just had a quote for a friend who wanted to go to LOS this week and the TAX....only the TAX on Thai Airways was over £300 quid...plus the fare...

Also expected almost 40,000 brickies expected to hit the cobbles this summer (end up on the Dole) abd now car tax going up again........so everyone wants to joli in LOS ...Yes.....

One in three people plan to save money during the economic downturn by only holidaying on home soil, according to a survey.

Research by Norwich Union has found that 33% of British holidaymakers will be avoiding foreign travel in an attempt to cut costs.

Of more than 1,000 people surveyed, half said they may also forgo travel insurance.

And almost two-thirds of those questioned said they hope to dip into their savings to pay for their holiday, rather than using a credit card.

Norwich Union's Suzi Fenn said: "Understandably, people are looking to make savings on their holidays this year given the economic climate."

However, she added: "The reality is that accidents and illnesses do happen on holiday, and you could end up footing an expensive medical bill if you haven't taken out proper cover."

Meanwhile, a study by Legal and General has revealed that one in four people have changed their holiday plans in an attempt to reduce their spending.

Of over 4,400 adults surveyed, 39% said they are spending more time at home.

People in northern Scotland and the Borders are suffering most from the economic downturn, with 89% of households making changes to save money, followed by the West Country at 88%.

[007]

Those figures are still being "cooked." It's a slow baking process that TAT prefers to utilize with its recipes.

As they have been for the past few years. Wasn't it possible to see the latest tourist arrivals statistics on the TAT webpage once? The numbers haven't been available for the past 3.5 years, or so. What do you expect in the land of scams and fakes?

[rubik101]

Living and working in UK, as I am for the next two years, I am seeing the effects of the worsening economy on a daily basis. Jobs losses are running at hundreds a week, soon to accelerate to thousands I fear. With high fuel and food prices, everyone feels the need to reduce spending and debt. This results in luxuries, i.e. foreign holidays, being the first casualty. The general feeling in UK at the moment is one of doom and gloom with recession around the corner. Indeed, some observers are telling us that Gov't figures are distorted and delayed and recession is already here. Kind of like in LOS?

If you are relying on tourists in the LOS for your income then I think you need to be prepared for some belt tightening. As mentioned above, the fuel surcharges and taxes on tickets now amounts to around £300.00 from UK to LOS. This amount will not reduce in the coming months, indeed, it is likely to be raised yet again when the $150.00/bbl oil hits the market in a few months.

Nothing TAT does will influence this situation one iota.

Sorry to be so pessimistic but it seems the good times are over, for now.

Edited July 10, 2008 by rubik101

[cloudhopper]

TAT lowers tourism projections

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projections.......from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million........The TAT has also halved it revenue-growth projection ......The revenue projection for this year is 600 billion baht....

The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection....

-- The Nation 2008-07-08

They really like to project....in the Freudian sense!

[Rinrada]

Living and working in UK, as I am for the next two years, I am seeing the effects of the worsening economy on a daily basis. Jobs losses are running at hundreds a week, soon to accelerate to thousands I fear. With high fuel and food prices, everyone feels the need to reduce spending and debt. This results in luxuries, i.e. foreign holidays, being the first casualty. The general feeling in UK at the moment is one of doom and gloom with recession around the corner. Indeed, some observers are telling us that Gov't figures are distorted and delayed and recession is already here. Kind of like in LOS?

If you are relying on tourists in the LOS for your income then I think you need to be prepared for some belt tightening. As mentioned above, the fuel surcharges and taxes on tickets now amounts to around £300.00 from UK to LOS. This amount will not reduce in the coming months, indeed, it is likely to be raised yet again when the $150.00/bbl oil hits the market in a few months.

Nothing TAT does will influence this situation one iota.

Sorry to be so pessimistic but it seems the good times are over, for now.

No Pessimistic ..unfortunately.....from a couple of weeks ago.......

Last tourist to Thailand please switch off the Lights.......

from Mikael and the Boris Boys

Russians see oil price topping $250

Evening Standard(with thanks)

Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom today trumpeted that it will become the world's biggest company within a decade on the back of a soaraway oil price which, it forecasts, will top $250 a barrel

Chief executive Alexei Miller told an international energy strategy audience in France today that he expects Gazprom's ambitious expansion plans will deliver a company with a market value of more than $1 trillion in seven to 10 years.

Miller said that would come through investments currently running at $30bn a year, an expansion programme which could take the Russian giant to the US and which analysts in London believe will see it take strategic stakes in major UK companies such as British Gas group Centrica. ....you mean buy doncha.......

[astral]

Just as well they have the Oil Price to blame.

Heaven forbid they should be at fault...........

[sotsira]

TAT lowers tourism projections

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projections for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or 10-per-cent growth, the TAT now expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT has also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from 38,760 baht this year to 39,375 next year. The revenue projection for this year is 600 billion baht.

Although the projection figures are cut from 10% to 3.3% it's still a growth, i find this hard to beleive and understand with all the ongoing negatives that are apparent in the global economy. Any growth would be an optimistic assumption surely![/i]

Edited July 12, 2008 by sotsira

[cclub75]

It's a pity TAT doesn't suppply (yet) the numbers from January to June; the first 6 months, although they MUST have access to those figures......but won't release them....

[/color]

Indeed, their website remains... empty... Last monthly figures (of international arrivals, per country) were given for december 2007 (before, datas were released every month, with 2 month lag).

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=nmt

Why such silence ? Or shyness ?

[Steely Dan]

TAT lowers tourism projections

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projections for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or 10-per-cent growth, the TAT now expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT has also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from 38,760 baht this year to 39,375 next year. The revenue projection for this year is 600 billion baht.

Although the projection figures are cut from 10% to 3.3% it's still a growth, i find this hard to beleive and understand with all the ongoing negatives that are apparent in the global economy. Any growth would be an optimistic assumption surely![/i]

I suppose it depends on exactly when the revenue is counted. 3% Growth in Baht terms is hardly growth in real terms with inflation of 8.9%.

[annetta]

So I am in the statistics.....I have just cancelled my trip to LOS due to the high cost of tickets: Rome -Phuket and return 1400 euro, 320 euro taxes and fuel surcharge. 2 tickets 2800 euro (Thai Airways) then you have to add hotel (not much, 1500 bath a day with breakfast), food, motorbike, drinks.....I used to go 2-3 times a year but I think we'll have to switch to somewhere else, maybe we can do it one time in winter, if both still will have our jobs!!!

MALA TEMPORA CURRUNT.........

Annetta

[deanpratchett]

....and just to help the Tourist industry, the bars are going to be closed again this Thursday and Friday for Kao Pansa