Israel Attacks Iran - What Would You Invest Before It Happens?

[Bel Mondo]

Throughout the past months, I have read many posts on this forum and respect many of the participants for their insight.

I have included a link to an article from the New York Times discussing the inevitability of Israel attacking Iran within the next few months.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/18/opinion/18morris

Question: Assuming for the sake of argument that an attack on Iran by Israel is inevitable within the next few months, what portfolio of investments would you recommend?

A typical “doomsday” portfolio would probably include: Gold options (November or December); Oil futures; Puts on DOW, DAX, FTSE, TASE (Israel’s index) --- pretty obvious – so……….

Currency Question: In the past, the USD was the safe haven during times of world crisis. Iran might attempt to block the Straits of Hermuz. There would probably be a number of terrorist attacks against both the US, GB, Germany and France. No western country is safe.

So what currency would the world “rush” into this time?

What other individual investments would you make?

Also – on what date do you think Israel will attack Iran?

Israel always seems to attack on or a short time before an historical date (1973 Yom Kippur War). So I have provided some dates to choose from below.

Sunday 10 August:

Tisha B'Av: A solemn day that commemorates a series of tragedies that have befallen the Jewish people over the years, many of which have coincidentally happened on this day.

Tuesday 30 September:

Rosh Hashanah: Jewish New Year

Thursday 9 October:

Yom Kippur: Day of Atonement - the most solemn day of the Jewish year.

Tuesday 14 October:

Sukkot: Sukkot or The Feast of Tabernacles, commemorates the years that the Jews spent in the desert on their way to the Promised Land, and celebrates the way in which God took special care of them under impossible conditions.

October 16 – David Ben-Gurion’s birthday – First Prime Minister of Israel

Tuesday 21 October:

Shemini Atzeret: Shemini Atzeret can be translated as "the assembly of the eighth (day)." In Israel the festival is combined with Simchat Torah.

Simchat Torah: Simchat Torah means "Rejoicing in the Torah." This holiday marks the completion of the yearly cycle of weekly Torah readings.

Monday 22 December:

Hanukkah: Hanukkah is the Festival of Lights and marks the restoration of the temple by the Maccabees in 164 BCE. Hanukkah is celebrated at roughly the same time as Christmas, but there is no connection at all between the festivals.

[Jingthing]

How about the non-middle eastern oil producers? Wouldn't they then be sitting in the cat bird seat?

[pampal]

there will be no attack on Iran by Israel or anyone else

[grapetable]

Oil gold and bullets

[Jingthing]

there will be no attack on Iran by Israel or anyone else

I am sure most of hope and think you are right. But it is certainly possible. Israel will not allow itself to be the target of a second holocaust, and I don't blame them.

Probably basic food commodities also. How about fallout shelter builders?

Edited July 31, 2008 by Jingthing

[Crossy]

How are we going to stretch this one to be Thailand related? 'World Economy' Joker has already been played.

[Jingthing]

Alot of Thai workers in Israel. Alot of Israeli backpackers in Thailand. There you go?

[Bel Mondo]

How are we going to stretch this one to be Thailand related? 'World Economy' Joker has already been played.

Thailand related? A few thoughts ----

Oil spikes to $200 USD or more ----

How can airlines cope with this? Fares are already up by 20% or more. I bet they may go up even more.

The SET – Not doing so well lately – I bet it would do even worse.

Inflation – Thailand’s essential commodities (like food for the people) – costs are skyrocketing. I bet the problem will get even worse. Ask the Thai who is not driving a Mercedes or going on his/her next shopping spree at The Emporium --- Are they hurting bad -- Really bad? You bet they are!

Exports/Imports – I bet these would suffer also.

Terrorism – Do you really think Thailand is immune to this? Do you think there would be no retaliation against allies of the USA? Remember – Thailand is an ally of the USA. The USA uses Thailand’s air bases and naval bases and always has.

Israel attacking Iran has major global economic repercussions.

To avoid this issue is like trying to ignore a 2 tone elephant standing in your living room – it’s an economic issue that can’t be ignored by anyone in any country.

Is this issue “relevant to Thailand”

You have to make up your own mind on this.

[Maestro]

Not related to Thailand. Bel Mondo, if you want to start a discussion on of the effect of a price increase in crude oil, regardless of its cause, on Thailand's economy please start a separate topic on that.

Topic closed.

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Maestro