Thai Economy

[Chaimai]

Given the escalation of PAD activity (which has led directly to Prince Andrew cancelling his planned visit to the Kingdom) I find it hard to believe that this unrest has not had a greater (negative) impact on the Thai economy. In my days in banking "political risk" was a huge factor in the economic performance of a country.

However, in Thailand we have SET at a slightly higher level than a month ago and the THB/GBP rate having appreciated/depreciated by 7.5%. I accept that the impact of the "global correction" can vary but I would have thought that political unrest and uncertainty would have hit Thailand harder.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Chaimai

[Kadafi]

I would have thought it would have damaged the THB rate more also, i just don't know enough about it. There are alot of problems in Britain hense the fall of the sterling, i guess what's going on in Thailand isn't as bad as the British situation (2% fall in house prices in August alone) also a certain recession in sight and with the likes of HSBC and other banks having such trouble...

[Chaimai]

I would have thought it would have damaged the THB rate more also, i just don't know enough about it. There are alot of problems in Britain hense the fall of the sterling, i guess what's going on in Thailand isn't as bad as the British situation (2% fall in house prices in August alone) also a certain recession in sight and with the likes of HSBC and other banks having such trouble...

Agree that the UK has it's problems and Sterling is weak against most currencies - economically, it is currently worse than Thailand. BUT, the political climate is stable (bloody useless, but stable) which cannot be said for Thailand.With rising interest rates in Thailand, higher food and commodity prices and the property market stagnating LoS could get hit harder - especially if valuable revenues from tourism are hit.

(HSBC are OK - it reported a 28 per cent slump in first half profits, thanks to nearly $14bn (£7.1bn) worth of bad debt and credit crunch linked charges. The bank's global spread still helped it deliver pre-tax profits of $10.3bn (£5.2bn). So even after a colossal write-down they still made £1 bn more profit than they paid for Midland Bank in 1992 !)

[Kadafi]

I would have thought it would have damaged the THB rate more also, i just don't know enough about it. There are alot of problems in Britain hense the fall of the sterling, i guess what's going on in Thailand isn't as bad as the British situation (2% fall in house prices in August alone) also a certain recession in sight and with the likes of HSBC and other banks having such trouble...

Agree that the UK has it's problems and Sterling is weak against most currencies - economically, it is currently worse than Thailand. BUT, the political climate is stable (bloody useless, but stable) which cannot be said for Thailand.With rising interest rates in Thailand, higher food and commodity prices and the property market stagnating LoS could get hit harder - especially if valuable revenues from tourism are hit.

(HSBC are OK - it reported a 28 per cent slump in first half profits, thanks to nearly $14bn (£7.1bn) worth of bad debt and credit crunch linked charges. The bank's global spread still helped it deliver pre-tax profits of $10.3bn (£5.2bn). So even after a colossal write-down they still made £1 bn more profit than they paid for Midland Bank in 1992 !)

Over last couple years i have spent more time in LOS than i have in the UK, i am back in the UK now for about 4 weeks sorting a few things out before i head back to LOS in a week or so. The UK is in a mess, it's all over the news,radio, TV everywhere about the state of the property market (60% less mortgage agreements compared to this time last year!), people losing there homes, personal debts, rise in food prices, electricity and gas bills double compared to couple years ago and i'm sure if won't be long before its official that the UK is in a recession.

I do believe its a race to the bottom for both Countries, Thailand has alot of political issue's but the sterling is still falling on baht daily...