Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[ace]

Maybe we should of joined the Euro after all.

Look where being independent gets you !!!!

I would be willing to place a small wager that you'll get another chance.

Yep, when the Pound reaches parity

Yep, for some reason I have the idea it will be at 1.08 euro! UK should join now.

[ace]

I doubt this rate cut will do much for FTB. I just checked with two banks and my mortgage rate is still 7.19% or 7.43% (ftb, 12% deposit). The cut seems to be only for those with variable/tracker mortgage...it appears that FTB are excluded.

My guess is that this is just another move reduce defaults (and therofore make a favor to banks). This is done by reducing the amount of interest for people that have a mortgage which is just out of the fixed period and cannot be renewed because property prices are falling and the owner is in negative equity...

giruzz

You're OK paying well over 7% ? I think you're getting ripped off. Check The Times online, money page, for a brief list of best buy mortgage rates. Unless you have bad credit history you should be a full 1% under your current, IMO.

[giruz]

Forgive my ignorance but what do you mean by FTB ?....Full term mortgage or something ?

LaoPo

Mrs Naam claims it stands for "First Time Buyer" but could not give more details. perhaps somebody can enlighten us?

Mrs Naam is rigt. FTB = First Time Buyer

[giruz]

I doubt this rate cut will do much for FTB. I just checked with two banks and my mortgage rate is still 7.19% or 7.43% (ftb, 12% deposit). The cut seems to be only for those with variable/tracker mortgage...it appears that FTB are excluded.

My guess is that this is just another move reduce defaults (and therofore make a favor to banks). This is done by reducing the amount of interest for people that have a mortgage which is just out of the fixed period and cannot be renewed because property prices are falling and the owner is in negative equity...

giruzz

You're OK paying well over 7% ? I think you're getting ripped off. Check The Times online, money page, for a brief list of best buy mortgage rates. Unless you have bad credit history you should be a full 1% under your current, IMO.

No. We (Me and GF)are not willing to pay 7%

We are not buying because with for a mortgage of 160k and with a rate above 5.5% it is cheaper for us to rent.

We are currently paying 750pm and with a 7% interest on the mortgage it is just cheaper to rent (without considering that prices are going down and that if we want to move we can do it without too many problems).

giruzz

[MJP]

FTB is indeed first time buyer, not many of them in the UK at present, although maybe this rate cut will produce some classic bull trap

Bull traps right.

Expect a general election early 2009 and the corrupt New Labour banksters to win it.

[Mosha]

A labour win and snow at Bangkok Airport. Sounds like a good bet

[MJP]

A labour win and snow at Bangkok Airport. Sounds like a good bet

There's definitely a bull trap being set. Still a lot of un-reality amongst voters in the UK. They now see Brown as a sort of saviour.

Trouble is, the Tory's are so, so weak in opposition. They said nothing during the boom about how damaging the situation was and now only really make the odd murmuring. Vince Cable (LibDem) is pretty much the only sensible bloke in that entire place. He's been squealing about the credit boom for a couple of years, but then he was chief economist of Shell before.

[MJP]

I doubt this rate cut will do much for FTB. I just checked with two banks and my mortgage rate is still 7.19% or 7.43% (ftb, 12% deposit). The cut seems to be only for those with variable/tracker mortgage...it appears that FTB are excluded.

My guess is that this is just another move reduce defaults (and therofore make a favor to banks). This is done by reducing the amount of interest for people that have a mortgage which is just out of the fixed period and cannot be renewed because property prices are falling and the owner is in negative equity...

giruzz

You're OK paying well over 7% ? I think you're getting ripped off. Check The Times online, money page, for a brief list of best buy mortgage rates. Unless you have bad credit history you should be a full 1% under your current, IMO.

No. We (Me and GF)are not willing to pay 7%

We are not buying because with for a mortgage of 160k and with a rate above 5.5% it is cheaper for us to rent.

We are currently paying 750pm and with a 7% interest on the mortgage it is just cheaper to rent (without considering that prices are going down and that if we want to move we can do it without too many problems).

giruzz

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

[Naam]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

[MJP]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it.

Reality had to dawn at some point.

[Naam]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

[chiang mai]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

[MJP]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Oh yes that.

They put that there just to show who the VI's (vested interests) are. It's quite hilarious how it's changed over the years and a sudden flurry of negative predictions of late. Demonstrates the 'heard mentality', the 'madness of crowds' that inflated the bubble over the past decade.

A bubble now popped. In fact the biggest bubble ever in the history of mankind.

Going to be global fallout from this one.

[chiang mai]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

[MJP]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

Poor old Roger called it early, 2004 I think it was. Then became a property bull, suddenly a bear in his cave.

[chiang mai]

For comparison purposes, although frankly, pretty meaningless chatter.

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...ouse-price.html

[Mosha]

More tax cuts? Maybe

http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/news/art...mentid=10799534

[MJP]

For comparison purposes, although frankly, pretty meaningless chatter.

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...ouse-price.html

60% by 2012 from the 2007 peak, without the nominal effect of wage inflation, because there won't be any.

[neil324]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

I had a dream last night, there will be a Dollar collaspe 27th/28th November

[Naam]

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

i have no bloody idea... but please don't tell anybody! joke aside. i was lucky to make a handsome profit with a straight forward when the last wild swing happened. hold still some cash dollars plus about 25% of my bonds are USD-denominated. in other words, i don't really think about what might happen and i don't care very much. i am much more concerned what to do sooner or later with my short term Bunds and UST. leave them or roll them over for a yield pittance? convert them to cash and invest them for (soon to come!) an overnight rate pittance? HY currencies (except perhaps getting into TRY again) are for me out of question as long as this crisis lasts.

for what it's worth here's the forecast (dated last friday) from my bank (UBS):

We lift our 12 month EURUSD forecast, moving our year end 2009 target from 1.30 to 1.45. The three and six month forecasts remain unchanged at 1.27 and 1.25. We expect increasing worries about the US deficit financing in H2 2009; until then, repatriation should support the dollar.

Forecast:

3 Month: 1.27

6 Month: 1.25

12 Month 1.45

[chiang mai]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

I had a dream last night, there will be a Dollar collaspe 27th/28th November

That would suit me well from a purely investment standpoint, I shall hold you personally accountable if the fall does not materialize to fullest effect and no excuses will be entertained if you later come back and state you were mistaken, it was really a wet dream.

[VegasVic]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

I had a dream last night, there will be a Dollar collaspe 27th/28th November

That would suit me well from a purely investment standpoint, I shall hold you personally accountable if the fall does not materialize to fullest effect and no excuses will be entertained if you later come back and state you were mistaken, it was really a wet dream.

It sounds like Neil may be trouble The only major curency that will preform worse than the Pound over the next 6 months will likely be the Aussie Dollar as commodities continue to fall!

[Mirkwood]

Call me thick but I thought the ££££ would really drop against the Baht following the interest rate cut in UK.

Why hasn't it then?

I took a look at that House Price Crash website.

I think there are a lot of the posters hoping rather than having hard facts.

We have been trying to buy a house in UK all this year. Property prices haven't dropped that much and a place that you would actually want to buy isn't even for sale.

I think Gordon Brown will actually pull off a rescue. Spring bounce on the way for my money.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Mirkwood

[neil324]

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

it's <deleted> interesting to see how the "experts" agree to disagree

Not a bad forum once you get into it. Reality had to dawn at some point.

i was not referring to the forum but to the forecasts on the first page of the website.

examples:

National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.

*****

Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.

*****

Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.

*****

Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.

Not quite apples and apples Naam. Savills and Knight Frank both have a vested interest in seeing prices maintained since they are both agents, NHF is almost a government body that wouldn't exist if prices were low! Deloitte on the other hand is advised by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics, both of whom are pretty good and generally reasonably accurate. The correct answer therefore is, a fall by a third by end 2010.

BTW, how are you calling USD between now and year end? Just curious.

I had a dream last night, there will be a Dollar collaspe 27th/28th November

That would suit me well from a purely investment standpoint, I shall hold you personally accountable if the fall does not materialize to fullest effect and no excuses will be entertained if you later come back and state you were mistaken, it was really a wet dream.

It sounds like Neil may be trouble The only major curency that will preform worse than the Pound over the next 6 months will likely be the Aussie Dollar as commodities continue to fall!

Hmm maybe so but i doubt it very much. Yes the pound is taking it hard now for sure but its somebody else's turn next, many people are predicting a dollar collaspe its just a case of when. The Euro has had no pressure yet maybe that .50 cut by the ECB will come back to haunt them.

[churchill]

Pound hits 12-year trade-weighted low

Tue 11 Nov, 2008 09:32

LONDON (Reuters) - The pound fell to a fresh 12-year low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday and close to record lows against the euro as investors shunned riskier assets and after another batch of weak economic data.

One report showed a measure of home sales at their lowest in October since the series began 30 years ago, and another showed the biggest drop in retail sales for three years.

Equities fell 1.5 percent (UKX.L) in early trade after Monday's optimism over China's stimulus plan quickly dissipated.

This put higher-yielding currencies, including the pound, under pressure.

"Today there has been increased risk aversion, which tends to weigh on the pound, plus there has been further bleak news on the UK housing market," said BTM-UFJ currency strategist Lee Hardman. "The pound is vulnerable to a further sharp correction in the coming weeks."

The pound hit its lowest level since September 1996 on a trade-weighted basis at 84.6.

The euro rose a quarter of a percent against sterling to 81.76 pence, close to Monday's record high of 82.08 pence, while the pound fell 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.5583.

The housing and retail sales data added further weight to market expectations that the Bank of England will need to cut interest rates further, even after last week's 150 basis point rate cut.

Interest rate swap markets as measured by SONIA contracts were pricing in a further 50 basis point rate cut in December.

To that end, the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday will be scrutinized, as it will reveal the central bank's latest forecasts on growth and inflation.

"The UK's economic woes are intensifying, as will be outlined by this week's data. This is necessitating unprecedented stimulus, with the Bank's Inflation Report set to suggest that rates have a way to go before bottoming," ING strategist Tom Levinson said in a note to clients.

Market players were also watching for trade data due at 9:30 a.m..

[HardenedSoul]

Call me thick but I thought the ££££ would really drop against the Baht following the interest rate cut in UK.

Why hasn't it then?

I took a look at that House Price Crash website.

I think there are a lot of the posters hoping rather than having hard facts.

We have been trying to buy a house in UK all this year. Property prices haven't dropped that much and a place that you would actually want to buy isn't even for sale.

I think Gordon Brown will actually pull off a rescue. Spring bounce on the way for my money.

Because sterling was already oversold on the news of a 0.5% contraction in UK GDP. I suspect that if the cut had been less deep, it may have rallied a little more. There is every reason to suspect that it would drop to $1.40 -$1.50 if the dollar wasn't due for a protracted sell-off in the coming weeks. The greenback is severely overbought and there will be a run on it soon enough . . . guaranteed !

Having said that, the UK is potentially in a worse situation than the US. Property is still way overpriced; it relies far too heavily on a financial sector; it has nowhere near the manufacturing capability it used to and its consumers are the most indebted in the developed world.

I moved all my readies out of sterling and bought gold against which the pound has shed 20% in the last year so it's done its job and done it well . I realise gold conjures up mixed emotions among investors but, frankly, I don't give a toss about its value against the dollar seeing as my holding facility allows me to convert it into several currencies when I wanna make a withdrawal.

As for property, I guess if you need a place to shelter your family, then you buy whatever the price. There will be NO spring bounce. Property prices are set to fall for a few years to come. Of course, many owners won't sell at lower prices given the prevailing mentality among them that they're entitled to make profit because Kirsty Allsop and Phil Spencer from "Location, Location, Location" on Channel 4 told them so ! The fact is, though, that as the UK is going to shed a lot more jobs in the months and years ahead, you can be sure that their lenders will sell their properties for them.

As a mortgage broker in the late 80s early 90s, I read all the opinions of pundits in 1992/93 calling the bottom and urging folks to get back into property as prices had fallen substantially. The price falls continued way into 1995/96. Mortgage lenders back then swore blind that lending excesses like low-start, non-status and deferred interest mortgages that had seen the property market explode would never return. We all know how that ended.

[MJP]

Call me thick but I thought the ££££ would really drop against the Baht following the interest rate cut in UK.

Why hasn't it then?

I took a look at that House Price Crash website.

I think there are a lot of the posters hoping rather than having hard facts.

We have been trying to buy a house in UK all this year. Property prices haven't dropped that much and a place that you would actually want to buy isn't even for sale.

I think Gordon Brown will actually pull off a rescue. Spring bounce on the way for my money.

Because sterling was already oversold on the news of a 0.5% contraction in UK GDP. I suspect that if the cut had been less deep, it may have rallied a little more. There is every reason to suspect that it would drop to $1.40 -$1.50 if the dollar wasn't due for a protracted sell-off in the coming weeks. The greenback is severely overbought and there will be a run on it soon enough . . . guaranteed !

Having said that, the UK is potentially in a worse situation than the US. Property is still way overpriced; it relies far too heavily on a financial sector; it has nowhere near the manufacturing capability it used to and its consumers are the most indebted in the developed world.

I moved all my readies out of sterling and bought gold against which the pound has shed 20% in the last year so it's done its job and done it well . I realise gold conjures up mixed emotions among investors but, frankly, I don't give a toss about its value against the dollar seeing as my holding facility allows me to convert it into several currencies when I wanna make a withdrawal.

As for property, I guess if you need a place to shelter your family, then you buy whatever the price. There will be NO spring bounce. Property prices are set to fall for a few years to come. Of course, many owners won't sell at lower prices given the prevailing mentality among them that they're entitled to make profit because Kirsty Allsop and Phil Spencer from "Location, Location, Location" on Channel 4 told them so ! The fact is, though, that as the UK is going to shed a lot more jobs in the months and years ahead, you can be sure that their lenders will sell their properties for them.

As a mortgage broker in the late 80s early 90s, I read all the opinions of pundits in 1992/93 calling the bottom and urging folks to get back into property as prices had fallen substantially. The price falls continued way into 1995/96. Mortgage lenders back then swore blind that lending excesses like low-start, non-status and deferred interest mortgages that had seen the property market explode would never return. We all know how that ended.

You're an HPC'er.

Good post.

[ace]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

[MJP]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

[MJP]

Neil,

I see you there.