Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[neil324]

Dear Mervyn,

Yours sincerely,

K.

PMSL

[MJP]

I'll try and find the 20 year GBP/THB chart, in any case here's the GBP/USD one. Notice 1992, that was Black Wednesday and IR's racing to 15.5%, lot's of intervention. Won't be any support this time.

gbp.tiff

[kerr17]

I'll try and find the 20 year GBP/THB chart, in any case here's the GBP/USD one. Notice 1992, that was Black Wednesday and IR's racing to 15.5%, lot's of intervention. Won't be any support this time.

Down to 1.45 with $ and 1.16 with € right now

[MJP]

I'll try and find the 20 year GBP/THB chart, in any case here's the GBP/USD one. Notice 1992, that was Black Wednesday and IR's racing to 15.5%, lot's of intervention. Won't be any support this time.

Down to 1.45 with $ and 1.16 with € right now

They [boE/Treasury/Cuntchops] will let the pound burn now, all the way to parity with the Euro at which point bye-bye British sovereignty - all of your Great British Pounds will become Eurotrash.

They will be hung by history.

[james1979]

I'll try and find the 20 year GBP/THB chart, in any case here's the GBP/USD one. Notice 1992, that was Black Wednesday and IR's racing to 15.5%, lot's of intervention. Won't be any support this time.

Down to 1.45 with $ and 1.16 with € right now

They [boE/Treasury/Cuntchops] will let the pound burn now, all the way to parity with the Euro at which point bye-bye British sovereignty - all of your Great British Pounds will become Eurotrash.

They will be hung by history.

that's an interesting theory

[HardenedSoul]

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

No.

Canadian dollar or gold . . .

[LaoPo]

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

No.

Canadian dollar or gold . . .

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

[MJP]

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

No.

Canadian dollar or gold . . .

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

Canada's much better placed than the UK.

Small, well educated, docile population on a huge land mass and resources.

They also have cheap electricity, hydropower, my uncle pay about £10 a month maximum for his house in Winnipeg.

Only thing is it's too dam_n cold.

[chiang mai]

Posters keep suggesting that as soon as GBP is on par with the Euro the UK will (more or less be forced to ) join the Euro. It's a logical solution for people to suggest that, trouble is, you rarely find a Brit suggesting that will happen - I simply don't see the UK population allowing that to happen, whatever the cost.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

The big issue for expats seems to be securing a decent rate of return between now and the December rate cut. Deposit rates are still pretty decent but these deals will almost certainly evaporate by the time of the next cut. For my part, I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

[Marvo]

..... I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

Kent Reliance BS still doing 2 year fixed rate bond at 6% FWIW

[chiang mai]

..... I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

Kent Reliance BS still doing 2 year fixed rate bond at 6% FWIW

It's difficult isn't it. Anything less than a top five Building Society is likely to make for a few sleepless nights, even if there is £50k insurance in place. I'm also concerned at just how many smaller BS's Nationwide can absorb when the wheel does fall off, they've got to be overstretched at some point, especially as the value of their real estate assets fall.

[MJP]

Posters keep suggesting that as soon as GBP is on par with the Euro the UK will (more or less be forced to ) join the Euro. It's a logical solution for people to suggest that, trouble is, you rarely find a Brit suggesting that will happen - I simply don't see the UK population allowing that to happen, whatever the cost.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

The big issue for expats seems to be securing a decent rate of return between now and the December rate cut. Deposit rates are still pretty decent but these deals will almost certainly evaporate by the time of the next cut. For my part, I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

Like a referendum on anything to do with Europe?

Come on ChiangMai, since when in the history of New Labour has there been anything close to parliamentary democracy?

If Brown wants into the Euro, then that is what we shall receive. The British people have never so much looked like serfs as they do now. There is hardly a murmur over here really. The population still gets more excited about Strictly Come Dancing, <deleted>.

[lannarebirth]

Posters keep suggesting that as soon as GBP is on par with the Euro the UK will (more or less be forced to ) join the Euro. It's a logical solution for people to suggest that, trouble is, you rarely find a Brit suggesting that will happen - I simply don't see the UK population allowing that to happen, whatever the cost.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

The big issue for expats seems to be securing a decent rate of return between now and the December rate cut. Deposit rates are still pretty decent but these deals will almost certainly evaporate by the time of the next cut. For my part, I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

I'm not sure if the GBP goes to parity with the Euro but if the public or a brokerage didn't think so, then yeah, I'd be inclined to think it might. I use them for contrary indicators.

[chiang mai]

Posters keep suggesting that as soon as GBP is on par with the Euro the UK will (more or less be forced to ) join the Euro. It's a logical solution for people to suggest that, trouble is, you rarely find a Brit suggesting that will happen - I simply don't see the UK population allowing that to happen, whatever the cost.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

The big issue for expats seems to be securing a decent rate of return between now and the December rate cut. Deposit rates are still pretty decent but these deals will almost certainly evaporate by the time of the next cut. For my part, I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

Like a referendum on anything to do with Europe?

Come on ChiangMai, since when in the history of New Labour has there been anything close to parliamentary democracy?

If Brown wants into the Euro, then that is what we shall receive. The British people have never so much looked like serfs as they do now. There is hardly a murmur over here really. The population still gets more excited about Strictly Come Dancing, <deleted>.

I live in hope that underneath the Strictly Come Dancing, I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here and are the pubs open yet veneer, the British people still have some sense of Englishness left.

[MJP]

Posters keep suggesting that as soon as GBP is on par with the Euro the UK will (more or less be forced to ) join the Euro. It's a logical solution for people to suggest that, trouble is, you rarely find a Brit suggesting that will happen - I simply don't see the UK population allowing that to happen, whatever the cost.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

The big issue for expats seems to be securing a decent rate of return between now and the December rate cut. Deposit rates are still pretty decent but these deals will almost certainly evaporate by the time of the next cut. For my part, I'm starting to look at the best two year fixes I can find, one year just is going to do the trick. On that note HSBC Hong Kong just offered me 1.45% on GBP for anywhere between one month and two years, high way robbery, but it certainly is a sign of things to come, very soon!

Like a referendum on anything to do with Europe?

Come on ChiangMai, since when in the history of New Labour has there been anything close to parliamentary democracy?

If Brown wants into the Euro, then that is what we shall receive. The British people have never so much looked like serfs as they do now. There is hardly a murmur over here really. The population still gets more excited about Strictly Come Dancing, <deleted>.

I live in hope that underneath the Strictly Come Dancing, I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here and are the pubs open yet veneer, the British people still have some sense of Englishness left.

Although I'm not hopeful, I do share your sentiments, good sir.

[HardenedSoul]

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

But, erm . . . at least Canada HAS resources. Britain has a moribund financial centre and little in the way of resources which could fuel a bounce in the fortunes of its currency. I think It's fair to say that oil is NOT going to remain at it's current levels for too long and, being in possession of vast oil reserves - albeit in expensive-to-extract tar sands - Canada and her currency are well placed to benefit WHEN, not IF, commodities priced in the greenback start to rise . . . .

[delboy]

People on this post are saying the strength of the BHT to the GBP is linked to the dollar.

If this is the case why then when i first came to LOS in 2000 was i getting 80BHT to the GBP, whilst at the same time getting $1.50.

I'd like to know where you exchange your GBP for Thai Baht.

According to the exchange rates posted on the Bangkok Bank website, the highest rate for the GBP in 2000 was 64.20 at the very end of December, with the lowest exhange rate being 57.19 on May 26th, for the majority of the year it was in the 58-59 range.

[Naam]

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

But, erm . . . at least Canada HAS resources. Britain has a moribund financial centre and little in the way of resources which could fuel a bounce in the fortunes of its currency. I think It's fair to say that oil is NOT going to remain at it's current levels for too long and, being in possession of vast oil reserves - albeit in expensive-to-extract tar sands - Canada and her currency are well placed to benefit WHEN, not IF, commodities priced in the greenback start to rise . . . .

what about the coal in Newcastle?

[HardenedSoul]

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

But, erm . . . at least Canada HAS resources. Britain has a moribund financial centre and little in the way of resources which could fuel a bounce in the fortunes of its currency. I think It's fair to say that oil is NOT going to remain at it's current levels for too long and, being in possession of vast oil reserves - albeit in expensive-to-extract tar sands - Canada and her currency are well placed to benefit WHEN, not IF, commodities priced in the greenback start to rise . . . .

what about the coal in Newcastle?

Yeah sure . . . if you can get enough of us lazy Brits to abandon their ingrained sense of entitlement to a big house and a Range Rover and start digging

[chiang mai]

Wish you luck ! For both, Canada is depending upon it's resources/commodities and demand will decline sharp in the times ahead.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Worst-t22270...74#entry2330374

LaoPo

But, erm . . . at least Canada HAS resources. Britain has a moribund financial centre and little in the way of resources which could fuel a bounce in the fortunes of its currency. I think It's fair to say that oil is NOT going to remain at it's current levels for too long and, being in possession of vast oil reserves - albeit in expensive-to-extract tar sands - Canada and her currency are well placed to benefit WHEN, not IF, commodities priced in the greenback start to rise . . . .

what about the coal in Newcastle?

Yeah sure . . . if you can get enough of us lazy Brits to abandon their ingrained sense of entitlement to a big house and a Range Rover and start digging

That's funny - but if that's what it takes to change the national view of things, I'll be happy to be the first in line, with shovel in hand.

Edited November 14, 2008 by chiang mai

[Marvo]

Surely, if the British Pound gets to parity with the euro, that's no reason for any assumpton to be made about ditching the pound at that point. If that action was taken, the pound would be locked at that low forever, with no chance to recover against that "tin pot" currency.

[churchill]

i don't think parity has anything to do with it - I don't immagine the lira was ever 1-1 with the euro !

[MJP]

I'm going to be terribly lazy and post something from another site, thanks to RealistBear.

"R4 had an interesting interview this morning with a very rationale sounding ecnomics professor. Bottom line: Brown has taken on debt to the extent of 450% of our annual GDP. He said it was no longer beyond the realms of possibility that our nation could go bankrupt at these levels of debt, especially as Brown plans to spend more while taxing less.

He thought a significant run on the pound may still happen as confidence in Sterling is reflecting Brown's untenable strategy. He sees a massive assett base repricing which could send house prices down far more than some of the more bearish posters have suggested.

I am on record for a 60% drop but it seems that the worse case scenario could be much worse (or better if you are buying) than even that. JCB boss was interviewed later and he reports a 80% drop in sales which he said is unprecedented and a reflection that things are much worse than many think."

What was Japan's debt as a proportion of GDP? I've heard 160%.

EDIT: Just to add, now talk of 90p to the Euro within 3 months.

Edited November 14, 2008 by MJP

[bravingbangkok]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

[pkrv]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

I will take a stab at answering your question - if you research this and tell me I am wrong I will be relieved. Thailand is a cash based society.

OK I think there is a lot of confusion here, and please don't be put out because until recently I too did not realise how finance works.

Do any of you guys know about the 'Fractional Reserve System (FRS)' don't be embarrassed if you don't neither did I, and I worked in Financial Markets globally responsible for some of the products that conduct world trade (Reuters).

Essentially if you go to any bank anywhere in the world and ask for a mortgage of say 100,000. That money is not given to you from the bank's reserves or others savings. Instead it is conjured into existence and written into your account; this is why the money pool continuously grows. Essentially the only thing of value in the transaction is your commitment to repay, and the bank gets to charge interest on money it does not actually have. Staggering isn't it? Please take a look at this very informative 'film' the guy goes into much more detail and explains how this came about. He has his own thoughts part way through but it is worth watching to the end (45 minutes).

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

The FRS generates something like 95% of all cash in circulation and it is a system designed to grow, and grow it does, but exponentially. Not good news.

A paradox -The FRS actually breaks down if people do not borrow money. So if you are informed that there is a credit crunch actually people are talking crap! What they are really saying is that credit worthy people are no longer borrowing hence the subprime market – you have to lend to someone to create the money in everybody's pocket. Just as an anecdote my dad (long retired) walked into a bank the other day just to do bank stuff and was immediately offered a loan by a sheepish person behind the till saying you probably don't need this but I can lend you 50k GBP. My dad just laughed.

The point here is that the system cannot cope with an aging population – most people are actually quite good with money and seek to ensure that they do not enter retirement in debt because their income stream is 'somewhat diminished'.

Now if I am correct in my analysis and please crucify me if I am wrong (no one has done so on the finance forum so far including naam)

The subprime market was most probably 'invoked' solely to keep the FRS going for vested interests – our money was effectively deliberately blown.

Because we are an aging population many of us have shrugged off debt and as such FRS is well and truly screwed.

But more importantly it also indicates that people have money/assets.

Now some say cash is king – true, but only to a point. Interest rates are collapsing and inflation is accelerating, cash will rapidly become worthless, and I have a thread on this on the finance forum. And by the way this is also contributing the the current crisis your not meant to have cash your meant to have debt otherwise you screw the FRS

Today I do need cash reserves to live on, but if I still had substantial cash reserves I would be pooing my pants at this time, where would I park it? Well I have already put my money where my mouth is and IMO done OK – I do not doubt for one moment many others (with money and there are a lot of them) will come to the same conclusion . However they will probably look to the secondary market and contrary to popular belief there is one in Thailand.

Please give me hel_l because I hope that I am not correct – otherwise things will become very ugly indeed.

Edited November 14, 2008 by pkrv

[HardenedSoul]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Because the pound is weak

[JimsKnight]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Because the pound is weak

And the lunatics who've been running the asylum have lost control too!

People may laud G. Brown with being a skillful bean-counter but the fact is we're in a worse position than other countries in the EU, the £ has gone from being the queen of currencies in late 90s to early 00s to the leper!

Why? Because of the world economy AND Labours spend spend spend!

People said the Tories were bad and couldn't get any worse back in the 90s, I was one of the labour supporters (back in the day) how I've had my eyes opened.

My mind says this is the bottom we've hit now. But my heart says each time we check the baht rates on TV the bloody £ will keep on sinking.

I dunno what to say, I did a separate poll/thread on this and my direst prediction was £ = 58 baht (which I really didn't imagine happening) well its here and beyond!

We've just gotta cut back and ride the burning plane wreck all the way down and see how far the rabbit hole goes folks.

I notice a lot more farang drinking outside 7/11 like poor thais. Never seen that previously. Times are hard.

[HardenedSoul]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

[neil324]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes