Mosha Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 600km South of BKK. Pissed off with 1 step forward 2 back. Why couldn't the crisis have waited 2 years, the trees are 5 years old. (Rubber) I need a beer. CM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 600km South of BKK. Pissed off with 1 step forward 2 back. Why couldn't the crisis have waited 2 years, the trees are 5 years old. (Rubber) I need a beer. CM ? Don't fret. Listen to Jim Rogers on commodities. Even soft commodities. There's a global and massive liquidation of everything going on at the moment, hence technical strength of USD (repatriation of USD not backed by fundamentals) which will continue into 2009 but not much further. Commodities then to go berserk, so Jim reckons. Just planted another thousand trees. Well . . . the old woman did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Surviving, though cutting my cloth to suit as we tykes say. Although can still afford the luxuries. The boss may have to pay more tax to get my visa extension next year. I hope she still loves me by then Like my Avatar info says, I'm in Ranong, and cost of living is still cheap. Not too many tourists yet apart from the back packers, so prices here are still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Surviving, though cutting my cloth to suit as we tykes say. Although can still afford the luxuries. The boss may have to pay more tax to get my visa extension next year. I hope she still loves me by then Like my Avatar info says, I'm in Ranong, and cost of living is still cheap. Not too many tourists yet apart from the back packers, so prices here are still good. In Roi-Et and TBH I can spend more in Tesco Lotus there than in the UK. Serious, SERIOUS cutting back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterussian Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 (edited) heads n shoulders, knees n toes, knees n toes...looking into my crystal balls.. 8100 close, at an uneducated pessimistic guess. cant help feeling they are going to make the dow crack support for friday afternoon... like a soap opera, thank god im not in farang land.... yet Edited November 18, 2008 by UKWEBPRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterussian Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 my balls must be dusty. support holds. for now. plunge protection squad on guard! really interested to see what happens if support goes under 8000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaethon Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Just out of curiosity: What is causing the spikes ('noise') in the graph below and what happens at precisely 8pm GMT to cause them to abruptly reduce in frequency/amplitude? From: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Just out of curiosity: What is causing the spikes ('noise') in the graph below and what happens at precisely 8pm GMT to cause them to abruptly reduce in frequency/amplitude? From: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm Think it's the BoT 'managing'. Something I've always wanted to know too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yabaaaa Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 600km South of BKK. Pissed off with 1 step forward 2 back. Why couldn't the crisis have waited 2 years, the trees are 5 years old. (Rubber) I need a beer. CM ? Don't fret. Listen to Jim Rogers on commodities. Even soft commodities. There's a global and massive liquidation of everything going on at the moment, hence technical strength of USD (repatriation of USD not backed by fundamentals) which will continue into 2009 but not much further. Commodities then to go berserk, so Jim reckons. Just planted another thousand trees. Well . . . the old woman did. Interested why are you planting 1000 trees? what trees? or do you just like trees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterussian Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 (edited) bloody hope support doesnt break on the FX, along with the dow below 8000.. looks like a entrenched trading range, ... bottom at 50 baht please! Edited November 19, 2008 by UKWEBPRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 600km South of BKK. Pissed off with 1 step forward 2 back. Why couldn't the crisis have waited 2 years, the trees are 5 years old. (Rubber) I need a beer. CM ? Don't fret. Listen to Jim Rogers on commodities. Even soft commodities. There's a global and massive liquidation of everything going on at the moment, hence technical strength of USD (repatriation of USD not backed by fundamentals) which will continue into 2009 but not much further. Commodities then to go berserk, so Jim reckons. Just planted another thousand trees. Well . . . the old woman did. Interested why are you planting 1000 trees? what trees? or do you just like trees!! Rubber trees, by order of the ball and chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Just out of curiosity: What is causing the spikes ('noise') in the graph below and what happens at precisely 8pm GMT to cause them to abruptly reduce in frequency/amplitude? From: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm Think it's the BoT 'managing'. Something I've always wanted to know too. I think you'll find that it's the data feed is unplugged or switched off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Just out of curiosity: What is causing the spikes ('noise') in the graph below and what happens at precisely 8pm GMT to cause them to abruptly reduce in frequency/amplitude? From: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm Think it's the BoT 'managing'. Something I've always wanted to know too. I think you'll find that it's the data feed is unplugged or switched off. I thought they were just using a thicker crayon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJP Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. JP Morgan seems to think $1.28 and 92p=1 euro by early 2009. You know, with the bailout money starting to roll now, I'm not so sure. Also heard some place the great unwind was slowing now, thus the 'technical' strength of USD may start to wane. UK govt under pressure from opposition now over borrowing (although latest Mori Poll show Tories on 40/5 to Labour's 37%. Sorry, not to good with links tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmsally Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jesimps Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jesimps Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 (edited) Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" You don't need to take physical delivery of the Dollars you buy, you just need to own them. A USD account with Nationwide IOM is the easiest way, really low margins and you can buy and sell over the telephone, no hassle and safe. A multi-currency online account with HSBC Hong Kong will achieve the same attributes except you get 24 hour access instead of waiting for UK business hours. You need to take your own view on whether to hedge Sterling or not and if so, into which currency. The many posts in this thread will give you some ideas and are worth a read. There's a question mark over whether it's worth doing that in the short term, less so perhaps in the longer term. Apologies for the second edit: Can't stress enough that the margin you pay when buying or selling currencies is all important. There's no point in deciding to hedge Sterling by buying USD when the margin you pay to buy Dollars is so high that it defeats the point of hedging in the first place. For example, if you buy Thai currency at Travelex in London when the spot rate is 52 baht to the Pound, chances are that you will buy at something close to 40 baht to the Pound - had you waited and bought your Thai Baht in Thailand after you arrived here chances are that you would get 51.60 Baht to the Pound, a massive improvement. Ditto the case with USD - if spot rate is 1.49 then I would look to pay no more than around 1.4950 and this is easily achievable via Nationwide IOM and HSBC HK. Do the same transaction via Nationwide UK onshore and I would guess it's not that different from the Travelex level of margins. Edited November 19, 2008 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" You don't need to take physical delivery of the Dollars you buy, you just need to own them. A USD account with Nationwide IOM is the easiest way, really low margins and you can buy and sell over the telephone, no hassle and safe. A multi-currency online account with HSBC Hong Kong will achieve the same attributes except you get 24 hour access instead of waiting for UK business hours. You need to take your own view on whether to hedge Sterling or not and if so, into which currency. The many posts in this thread will give you some ideas and are worth a read. There's a question mark over whether it's worth doing that in the short term, less so perhaps in the longer term. The easiest and fastest way is to open an account with a forex brokerage firm. You can move into any currency with a mouseclick and have almost no fees when swapping. The only thing to consider is that you don't use leverage. Everytime you deal via a bank there are fees to be paid as well as you cannot really controll if they give you the the best rate available when you do the switch. Disadvantage is that you will be tempted to speculate but if you stick with the purpose to simply hedge your capital and stay disciplined thats the way to go. You can use leverage as well and even don't need to fund the account with the full ammount of money you want to hedge but you have to calculate that the contract size you buy/sell is accurately matching the ammount you want to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cocopops Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" You don't need to take physical delivery of the Dollars you buy, you just need to own them. A USD account with Nationwide IOM is the easiest way, really low margins and you can buy and sell over the telephone, no hassle and safe. A multi-currency online account with HSBC Hong Kong will achieve the same attributes except you get 24 hour access instead of waiting for UK business hours. You need to take your own view on whether to hedge Sterling or not and if so, into which currency. The many posts in this thread will give you some ideas and are worth a read. There's a question mark over whether it's worth doing that in the short term, less so perhaps in the longer term. The easiest and fastest way is to open an account with a forex brokerage firm. You can move into any currency with a mouseclick and have almost no fees when swapping. The only thing to consider is that you don't use leverage. Everytime you deal via a bank there are fees to be paid as well as you cannot really controll if they give you the the best rate available when you do the switch. Disadvantage is that you will be tempted to speculate but if you stick with the purpose to simply hedge your capital and stay disciplined thats the way to go. You can use leverage as well and even don't need to fund the account with the full ammount of money you want to hedge but you have to calculate that the contract size you buy/sell is accurately matching the ammount you want to work with. Be extremely careful when you choose one. Counter-party risk and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" You don't need to take physical delivery of the Dollars you buy, you just need to own them. A USD account with Nationwide IOM is the easiest way, really low margins and you can buy and sell over the telephone, no hassle and safe. A multi-currency online account with HSBC Hong Kong will achieve the same attributes except you get 24 hour access instead of waiting for UK business hours. You need to take your own view on whether to hedge Sterling or not and if so, into which currency. The many posts in this thread will give you some ideas and are worth a read. There's a question mark over whether it's worth doing that in the short term, less so perhaps in the longer term. The easiest and fastest way is to open an account with a forex brokerage firm. You can move into any currency with a mouseclick and have almost no fees when swapping. The only thing to consider is that you don't use leverage. Everytime you deal via a bank there are fees to be paid as well as you cannot really controll if they give you the the best rate available when you do the switch. Disadvantage is that you will be tempted to speculate but if you stick with the purpose to simply hedge your capital and stay disciplined thats the way to go. You can use leverage as well and even don't need to fund the account with the full ammount of money you want to hedge but you have to calculate that the contract size you buy/sell is accurately matching the ammount you want to work with. I agree that is the easiest and fastest way but I was trying to keep things simple for someone who appears to be novice at Forex transactions. I don't think I would advocate brokerage accounts for first timers, they are far too tempting and the chances of losing serious money are very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. correction: "their international branch etc" You don't need to take physical delivery of the Dollars you buy, you just need to own them. A USD account with Nationwide IOM is the easiest way, really low margins and you can buy and sell over the telephone, no hassle and safe. A multi-currency online account with HSBC Hong Kong will achieve the same attributes except you get 24 hour access instead of waiting for UK business hours. You need to take your own view on whether to hedge Sterling or not and if so, into which currency. The many posts in this thread will give you some ideas and are worth a read. There's a question mark over whether it's worth doing that in the short term, less so perhaps in the longer term. The easiest and fastest way is to open an account with a forex brokerage firm. You can move into any currency with a mouseclick and have almost no fees when swapping. The only thing to consider is that you don't use leverage. Everytime you deal via a bank there are fees to be paid as well as you cannot really controll if they give you the the best rate available when you do the switch. Disadvantage is that you will be tempted to speculate but if you stick with the purpose to simply hedge your capital and stay disciplined thats the way to go. You can use leverage as well and even don't need to fund the account with the full ammount of money you want to hedge but you have to calculate that the contract size you buy/sell is accurately matching the ammount you want to work with. I agree that is the easiest and fastest way but I was trying to keep things simple for someone who appears to be novice at Forex transactions. I don't think I would advocate brokerage accounts for first timers, they are far too tempting and the chances of losing serious money are very real. fastest, easiest and by far cheapest way. But you are very right the temptation to fall into gambling is very high. This way is only suitable for somebody who has determined what he wants in advance and does nothing but that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmsally Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at GBP/USD this morning I get the strongest sense that it's simply slowed its fall rate rather than stopped - it's currently trading at 1.4950 which is the lower end of its range for the past 24 hours. Consumer prices (CPI) has come in lower than expected so I guess the market doesn't see any need for UK rates to stay as high if inflation is already nicely on the way down so that leaves the door open for substantial rate cuts. It doesn't look good for Sterling yet I can't see a compelling view to buy into USD or anything else at this time. I think I would agree. Have bought some US$ but certainly don't now have the urge to buy more. I think now is the time just to wait things out. UK needs a new govt to turn things around. This one has been left holding Blair's mess. I suppose he is now earning nicely on the lecture circuit or into Middle East peace or whatever it was. Agreed, except that's not going to happen within a time frame that could help the current situation, if indeed ever! Advise please. When you say you have bought some US$, do you mean that you bought them in UK or imported GBP and bought them here? If you bought them in UK grateful you let me know how to go about it ie can I just phone my bs (Nationwide) and ask them to open a dollar account for me, or will they point me to there international branch in the IOM? I don't really want to go off-shore yet. If the GBP keeps falling against the USD and the THB, do you think it'd be worth importing pounds to buy dollars? The dollar seems to be holding it's own against the baht for whatever reasons. Is it best just to keep changing pounds for bahts just now and wait to see what happens, or get pro-active? I assure you all replies will be gratefully received. I opened mine with HSBC offshore. For transactions of more than 20k GBP you can deal over the tel. If you are a Premier customer they will lock in the rate for you at the time of tel. (which of course is a good thing if you think it's going down but not so good if it goes up - I suppose in which case you could ask for rate at time of transfer). My feeling is it is a bit late to transfer now, and it is only really a bit of a hedge against the THB exchange rate in case I want to spend some money in Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiterussian Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 (edited) Im not an FX trader, and have never used TA on FX...and maybe my chart is upside down... but surely now is precisely the wrong time to buy USD from GBP? I mean to say... better to wait to see if it breaches the 25 year support line at 1.3 ish...? otherwise you would be buying the 'top' please correct me if the TA doesnt work like this on FX... its an area im new to. anyway, i havent got any money on this... my bet is that it will hold. (doesn't bear thinking about if it breaches)... well... always look on the bright side of life...(image below has the current quote lower down - towards support when you magnify) SELL USD SELL SELL SELL gold looked like its links to DJI over the crash, which may get a futt bucking this week imo and drop more shortterm.. So my ''Mr T'' look will have to be put on hold... dunno what the gold price is best compared with... anyone help please? Edited November 19, 2008 by UKWEBPRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 I don't think even the brokerages or the FX houses know which way Sterling is going to go and urge interested parties to see the attached analysis to see how completely mixed those views are. I think Neutral is the most appropriate stance presently until a significant piece of news or strategy decides direction or sets the pace. Not all together bad I suppose. http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/curre...aspx?id=GBP/USD I also think the timing of JP Morgans recent high profile forecast of a further 13% drop in Sterling was deliberately mischievous and self serving and a red herring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 It should be noted that unless you are trading "offshore", that gains made from foreing exchange transactions are taxable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pkrv Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 OK I am going to something I don't usually do I am going to make a prediction on Stirling. Currently I/we earn in this currency and have no plans to move money off shore (to say Thailand) simply because the rates are against us. However I think things will be very different in one year’s time for the following reasons: The USD is currently VERY, VERY artificially high. This is apparently because there has been a forced selling of assets and the USD has benefited from this. However IMO when this forced selling comes to an end several factors will underpin its rapid decline. 1) The Chinese appear to be spending their USD at this current high, to fund internal projects on a massive scale. 2) The US has an aging population The Fractional Reserve System currently in place which need exponential amounts of credit to be generated will break down. 3) It appears that there is 'no need to change the way we issue currency' - i.e. debt is still the way to go - It would appear the matter is not discussed much in the media. 4) The US taxpayer who if rational did not become embroiled in this mess now is. They are being forced to bail out those who were irrational, and the system is to continue. 5) US debt seems to be unstoppable With the flood of this kind of USD into the system there are not many currencies left to go for. Whilst the UK is also in a similar position it actually is not as big (by orders of magnitude) in terms of its impact on the world economy. As one of the few currencies left I think in one (maybe two years) we will see a sharp increase in its value at which time I will take action to shift the built up resources I will have. BTW IMO this may be the last major improvement in GBP vs. other currencies. After which it will meet the same end as the USD, IMO worthless. I would appreciate any feedback on my thoughts - especially negative feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Im not an FX trader, and have never used TA on FX...and maybe my chart is upside down... but surely now is precisely the wrong time to buy USD from GBP?I mean to say... better to wait to see if it breaches the 25 year support line at 1.3 ish...? otherwise you would be buying the 'top' please correct me if the TA doesnt work like this on FX... its an area im new to. anyway, i havent got any money on this... my bet is that it will hold. (doesn't bear thinking about if it breaches)... well... always look on the bright side of life...(image below has the current quote lower down - towards support when you magnify) SELL USD SELL SELL SELL gold looked like its links to DJI over the crash, which may get a futt bucking this week imo and drop more shortterm.. So my ''Mr T'' look will have to be put on hold... dunno what the gold price is best compared with... anyone help please? it is more than very likely (cautious guess) that the Pound will bottom very soon versus USD and EUR and spiraling up long term but not at a similar pace it just got hammered down. By years end all hype should be over. Before that to happen we will probably see another downmove not necessarily against the Euro but most likely versus USD. GBP/USD at 1.40 and fractions below are excellent points to get back into the Pound and sending the USD back to the value it belongs to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now