The Housing Market Is Dead

[Klyph]

Please can we define this "Housing Market Slowdon" as Foreigner or Thai overall because from where I'm sitting the Thai property market for new developments is in high gear.

Where are you sitting, Pushit? I want to sit there too!

[lannarebirth]

right sales are brisk all right, briskly down....see Table 6 as of June 2008, the stupid deserve to be insolvent and separated from their money

so lets see, BOT raising rates, inflation rampant, gvt on verge of collapse, and baht about to head over the cliff....... amazing how everyone wants to be an "asset manager" but base their "genius" on how busy an office is or is not

take my advice, the only real estate some of you (not all) should be managing is the real estate that your backside occupies when you are on a bar stool or in a chair eating som tham

land sales nationwide DOWN 41.9%

new housing (condos/apratments) in Bangkok UP 236%, Bangkok condo registriations up 128%

even a 3rd grade (western educated and not thai educted) math student can see a problem here

indicators.pdf

On another thread I mentioned land sales in Chiang Mai are up and near southern beaches. I do not know what home sales are anywhere or what land sales are in other areas. those areas I mentioned are up, and considerably so according to the folks at the land department.

[LennyW]

Well house owners in my neighbourhood have finally stopped flogging their dead horse and have begun to take their 'for sale' signs down (no, they haven't sold). Real estate agents seem to be coming up with increasingly desperate ways to sell properties, 'partial ownership' (read timeshare) and the like. It seems this has been happening all over the country, not limited to any one particular area. The housing market has been in decline way before this year's credit crunch. When was the defining moment of the market's collapse for Thailand? Was their one?

Shouldnt that read World?

There has been a slowdown and shift in the market in Thailand, however, high end houses, condos and land are still selling well, the major shift being that more and more Thai people are buying properties to rent to foreigners that are reluctant to buy at present!

Make no mistake, property here still represents far greater value for money than in European destinations.

As for a defining moment in the slowdown, seems to be largely due to the US being in a recession and the UK suffering its worst financial crisis in 60 years!

[Gulfstream]

The defining moments are clearly numerous. Market changes are typically due to speculation and the ensuing change in supply and demand. In some areas of TH such as Pattaya there is a substantial oversupply. Demand has decreased as the "real estate bubbles have burst" in the USA, UK and Spain. The US and EU economies are weak and TH is now politically unstable. Yes, there are still some buyers as there are always some with money, however the "go-go" years are over and most will not be willing or able to buy at the present price level.

[glyph]

bingobongo has been predicting the collapse of the Thai real estate market for YEARS. His posts point to various indices, graphs, charts, and out-of-context quotations. Thus far, his predictions have been unerringly incorrect.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

bingobongo has been predicting the collapse of the Thai real estate market for YEARS. His posts point to various indices, graphs, charts, and out-of-context quotations. Thus far, his predictions have been unerringly incorrect.

[jitagon]

Well house owners in my neighbourhood have finally stopped flogging their dead horse and have begun to take their 'for sale' signs down (no, they haven't sold). Real estate agents seem to be coming up with increasingly desperate ways to sell properties, 'partial ownership' (read timeshare) and the like. It seems this has been happening all over the country, not limited to any one particular area. The housing market has been in decline way before this year's credit crunch. When was the defining moment of the market's collapse for Thailand? Was their one?

Shouldnt that read World?

There has been a slowdown and shift in the market in Thailand, however, high end houses, condos and land are still selling well, the major shift being that more and more Thai people are buying properties to rent to foreigners that are reluctant to buy at present!

Make no mistake, property here still represents far greater value for money than in European destinations.

As for a defining moment in the slowdown, seems to be largely due to the US being in a recession and the UK suffering its worst financial crisis in 60 years!

Read my post again. I said 'before this year's credit crunch'. I am in no way attempting to dampen anyone's optimism re the housing market, again housing market. I made no reference to just land or condos. I'm genuinely interested in the reason why it started to go pearshaped, and when.

[zorro1]

bingobongo has been predicting the collapse of the Thai real estate market for YEARS. His posts point to various indices, graphs, charts, and out-of-context quotations. Thus far, his predictions have been unerringly incorrect.

You don't see him much these days though. Interesting, had he bought when he first start posting negatively he may have bought anywhere in BKK for 50000bhtm. some of those have more than doubled yet he still comes here bashing away

[thaimate]

my twopenneth for all its worth ,a friend owns a few estate agencies here in patters and one in bkk.the condo market is ok ,as for houses ,its easier to sell dogsh-t.

[paulfromphuket]

my twopenneth for all its worth ,a friend owns a few estate agencies here in patters and one in bkk.the condo market is ok ,as for houses ,its easier to sell dogsh-t.

Buy land. They've stopped making it. - Mark Twain

[midas]

What happens " around the world " must surely impact Thailad eventually - surely ??

OUTLOOK

Housing prices decline around the world.

By The Nation

Published on September 26, 2008

The Baltics, US, UK, Ireland lead the slump as financial markets tumble.

Housing prices decline around the world.

A house flipper advertises to buy homes on September 23, 2008 in Pasadena, California.

As financial markets tumble, the world's housing markets have continued to slide during the year to the end of the second quarter, research by online propertyresearch house The Global Property Guide shows.

The research said that inflationadjusted house prices fell in 21 out of the 33 countries for which there is uptodate published data.

The Baltics, the United States, UK and Ireland led the global decline durฌing the period, the latest date for which comprehensive global statistics are available.

The biggest houseprice declines took place in Latvia, previously a leader of the global houseprice boom. House prices in Riga have fallen by 21.23 per cent in nominal terms during the aforesaid period and 33.08 per cent in real terms.

Prices in Estonia's Tallinn fell during the year by 11.02 per cent in nomฌinal terms and 14.06 per cent in real terms.

Quarterly data suggests that things are getting worse, with declines in inflationadjusted house prices over the quarter in all except nine of the 33 countries tracked.

Latvia's Riga saw the largest quarterly decline during the second quarter of the year, with average dwelling prices falling 5.20 per cent in nomiฌnal terms and 8.16 per cent in real terms.

While quarterly data are subject to seasonal variations and are thus less reliable, the slide suggests that the situation is worsening.

Since last year, there has been a dramatic turnaround in the world's housing markets. Only five countries out of 33, at this stage last year, had seen yearonyear declines in house prices in real terms. This year's total is 21.

Even in countries that have conฌtinued to record houseprice rises over the past year, such as China (Shanghai was up 36.32 per cent year on year in nominal terms at the end the second quarter, 27.28 per cent in inflationadjusted terms), transacฌtion volumes have fallen sharply, sugฌgesting that buyers are now nervous.

While property markets in some regions, such as the Middle East apparently remain in boom, it is hard to confirm this by reliable data. With the exception of Israel, none of the Middle East's property registries, staฌtistical institutes or central banks pubฌlish reliable data on housing markets.

It seems interesting that Slovakia's house prices are still accelerating, having risen 32.2 per cent this year (a rise of 25.57 per cent in inflationadjusted terms), as against a rise of 20.47 per cent year on year to the end of the second quarter last year (a rise of 17.56 per cent in inflationadjustฌed terms). Clearly, the boom in Eastern Europe is not entirely over.

There have also been strong price increases in Monaco, Montenegro and Albania, although no official house price statistics are available.

In the US , the authorities are seekฌing a US$700billion (Bt23.7trillion) "motherofallbailouts" package to purchase almost all of the country's bad mortgage debt in an effort to unfreeze the country's credit markets.

By the end of the second quarter, house prices in major US cities fell 15.4 per cent (18.9 per cent in real terms) from a year earlier, the CaseShiller house price index shows. It was the sixth consecutive quarter that the houseprice index dropped year on year.

In the UK, the stamp duty exemption has been raised to ฃ175,000 (Bt11 million) from ฃ125,000 for houses purchased from September this year to next September. The government also unveiled a ฃ1billion package to assist first time homebuyers and households struggling with their mortgage payments. In September last year, Northern Rock, one of UK's largest lenders, was bailed by the Bank of England.

At the end of the second quarter, house prices in the UK fell 6.33 per cent (9.77 per cent in real terms) from a year earlier, Nationwide said.

In Spain, the government released a ค3billion (Bt150 billion) rescue package. Certain real estate investment companies were given tax breaks to rent out unsold new homes for a fixed period.

During the same periosd, house prices in Spain rose 2 per cent (a fall of 2.49 per cent in real terms) from a year earlier, official statistics, which are widely believed to understate the problem, showed.

In Ireland, next year's budgetwill include a stimulus package providing assistance to firsttime homebuyers.

[WilliamJarvis]

Insofar as 'houses' (plus land) are concerned, I'm not too sure there has really been anything in the line of a second-hand resale market in Thailand.

The huge amount of new developments (with very poor planning) post circa 2000 have not helped this situation - with the rationale, "why buy second-hand when I can get the same thing for new at the same price?"

However, for money lenders (like Heng), I can believe business is really busy at the moment as they rush out to land offices around the country to register their leins on the loans they provide. This is not the same, however, as trying to sell the property.

Edited September 27, 2008 by WilliamJarvis

[philstone]

bingobongo has been predicting the collapse of the Thai real estate market for YEARS. His posts point to various indices, graphs, charts, and out-of-context quotations. Thus far, his predictions have been unerringly incorrect.

My wife told me she hear from many that houses are still raising and she has brought with my money 28 houses for members of her family and still wants to buy 60 more.

She knowns everything has she has atotal of 3 years of school and can read very little. However she believes in Ghosts

[yabaaaa]

the stupid deserve to be insolvent and separated from their money

Sorry to her you lost money

[yabaaaa]

my twopenneth for all its worth ,a friend owns a few estate agencies here in patters and one in bkk.the condo market is ok ,as for houses ,its easier to sell dogsh-t.

Buy land. They've stopped making it. - Mark Twain

"Surtsee" not sure if spelling is correct??

[cclub75]

Again, for anyone who thinks the market is at a stand still, just go down to your local land office and you can actually watch property trade hands (not exactly at a feverish pace... kind of more like an endless tide feeling that kind of wanes as the business day goes on); it's not just a show they are putting on to impress you

Indeed, you're perfectly right. I hate to say it, because I'm an honorary member of the gloom and doom brigade (sorry army).

This is shown in the official statistics.

Check the total amount of land transactions, nationwide

(source Bank of Thailand)

Even though june was very bad compare to june 2007 (-41 % from 56 to 32 billions).

There is only one flaw in those datas : we need also the number of land transactions, not only the total amount.

Furthermore the BOT stopped to give the details per areas (in december 1998...how unfortunate...). So we could assume that a few very big transactions... in Bangkok for instance... distort the whole picture...

Again : I can't explain why the authorities are not willing to give those 2 key datas (number of transactions and sub-totals per areas)... They are essential to assess the health of the market.

Something to hide perhaps ?

Anyway. I feel very relax, because the market will indeed crash in Thailand... We won't be able to escape the fallout of the global recession. The biggest customers of thai exports are already or are about to enter in recession (Europe, US, Japan)... and since the GDP is 60 % exports... And since exports provided almost 2/3 of the growth of GDP before... It's easy as 2+2=4. Thailand is going to be hit hard.

So bye bye inflated land transactions in Bangkok, condos mania, 5 stars hotels folie and other goodies. It's over.

Edited September 27, 2008 by cclub75

[Chaimai]

My wife told me she hear from many that houses are still raising and she has brought with my money 28 houses for members of her family and still wants to buy 60 more.

She knowns everything has she has atotal of 3 years of school and can read very little. However she believes in Ghosts

[tartempion]

Oversupply, anti farang sentiment and visa tightening rules, problems over nominee companies and the FBA, increasingly unstable and uncertain political situation, and now the credit crunch and world wide economic woes have all contributed to the current housing slump in LOS.

I firmly believe that the long term prospects for the upmarket/farang housing market in Thailand are good, because all the basic ingredients are still there - i.e. climate, cheap living, affordable luxury accommodation etc.

That's rather a contradictory statement.

And I do think it will only get worse in the near future, so you're a tad optimistic hoping it will improve over the next 5 years.

[tartempion]

My wife told me she hear from many that houses are still raising and she has brought with my money 28 houses for members of her family and still wants to buy 60 more.

So she buys 28 houses for her family (to live in for free?) with your money and want to buy 60 more with your money again?

A clever lady she is indeed

[Gary A]

There NEVER was a defining point. Like most everyone else, I wanted a house to call my own. After doing my homework I realized that there was no way other than a bogus company to buy a house. No way was I going the bogus company route. I don't especially like condo life, but at least the condo is mine. I did have a little extra money so I bought several pieces of land for my wife's future. I AM a cynic and if worse comes to worse, I could walk away from that land, have a roof over my head and not miss any meals.

[Gary A]

There NEVER was a defining point. Like most everyone else, I wanted a house to call my own. After doing my homework I realized that there was no way other than a bogus company to buy a house. No way was I going the bogus company route. I don't especially like condo life, but at least the condo is mine. I did have a little extra money so I bought several pieces of land for my wife's future. I AM a cynic and if worse comes to worse, I could walk away from that land, have a roof over my head and not miss any meals.

[stub]

Well house owners in my neighbourhood have finally stopped flogging their dead horse and have begun to take their 'for sale' signs down (no, they haven't sold).

In lower Sukhumvit, it wasn't the real estate agents taking the signs down; it was some sort of uniformed official with a pickup truck.

Did anyone every pay those ridiculous prices, or for that matter, the prices in any English print media?

[thaigene2]

Very interesting thread. The OP and Mobi have it summed it up. And I think the others who say 2006 are correct too.

To my mind, the negatives outweigh the positives. (establishment/PAD types would make it tougher for us, not easier, from visas to business operations, and restricted visa issues mean much more risk to buying here in general for foreigners). The fact you can't own land, etc, means only the really desparate or determined will go that route (via the wife, or 30 year leases going for the same as an outright purchase price).

So that goes for most of us..But I do agree with others who say the those with lots of money (just 'another' discretionary purchase at the top end) will continune to buy. In fact they may even start buying more if the markets collapse and the US and Europe go down a sink hole - better to get out of there (if you are not really affected by it).

[jts-khorat]

Everything is great, no worries...

The market for condominium's in the Thai capital is likely to continue growing this year despite being affected by many negative factors, according to an industry executive.

Athip Preechanont, president of the Thai Condominium Association, said the overall property business, particularly regarding single homes and townhouses, has been affected by political uncertainties, economic slowdown, and high inflation in the first half of this year.

However, the condominium market continued to grow in the second quarter and at present.

Its total sales for the whole year are expected to increase by 20 per cent to about 25,000 units while sales of townhouses totalled some 10,000 units.

more here from TNA, who HAVE to tell the truth, don't they?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Condominium-...wi-t215255.html