Euro/baht Exchange Rate

[PaddyThai]

With all the Political turmoil and negative financial information coming out of Thailand, I am surprised to see the Euro has been dropping against the Baht for the past few weeks and continues to drop.

I understand there are reasons why the Euro would be dropping against a whole basket of currencies but against the Baht! That puzzles me.

Any ideas. I am hoping to send about 10,000 euro from Europe to Thailand soon.

[VegasVic]

With all the Political turmoil and negative financial information coming out of Thailand, I am surprised to see the Euro has been dropping against the Baht for the past few weeks and continues to drop.

I understand there are reasons why the Euro would be dropping against a whole basket of currencies but against the Baht! That puzzles me.

Any ideas. I am hoping to send about 10,000 euro from Europe to Thailand soon.

You need to step back and take a look at the bigger picture. The Euro has lost about 12-13% vs. the Dollar very recently, and at same time the BOT has drawn a line in the sand against the Dollar trying to stem the Dollars rise against the baht. Things could actually have been much worse for the Euro-baht rate if the BOT made their stand at 32baht/Dollar instead of in the mid 34's. In the short term the BOT will likely be able to prop the baht up vs. the Dollar by using its Dollar reserves and perhaps even raising interest rates, so as the Euro slips back into the mid 1.30's vs. the Dollar the rates for the Euro vs. the baht may very well get a little worse. In the long run however the BOT will run out of ammo or just decide to capitulate, and as the baht declines vs. the Dollar it will stabilize the Euro-baht relationship. How low the Euro (and Pound for that matter) drops vs. the Dollar is really a matter of just how bad the major European economies get hit over the coming 12-18 months, but the historic "flight to quality" has already begun in earnest in the U.S. bond markets and will start to show itself in U.S. equity markets over the coming months. You may want to hedge yourself a little by buying Dollars or at least Dollar denominated assets (just a thought), I hope things work out for you

[PaddyThai]

Thanks VegasVic.

That all makes sense.

Good news for the large number of Americans retired in Thailand