France and Italy are in talks with Iran over securing passage. Japan has already secured agreement. At the same time. the UK, Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy and Japan in a coordinated communique that they are prepared to put in resource to secure freedom of passage for the Straits. This is a split strategy, that puts pressure on the United States. The European-Japanese stratgy creates two parallel tracks: Diplomatic; de-escalation, creating atmosphere for non-belligerant escorts (the escorts are there to protect shipping from both sides), and it explicitly seperates the new Euro-Japan axis from the Israel-US war aims. The second track is the conditional maritime security coalition; a ceasefire is needed. This isn't going to happen unless all parties to the conflict ceasefire. While America claim its not bothered about the Straits, this is a lie. They know their economy will suffer badly. It makes the camapaign not an action by the international community, but between two belligerants, and so requires unilateral action. NATO is in effect acting an a neutral party, and not treating the US as an ally. Europe and Japan control the exit ramp. If they continue going at each other, there is no international stabilisation plan. Europe and Japan will be ok, as they have secured passage with Iran. The US economy will go down the toilet. End the war, and these third parties promise immediate multilateral support. America can <deleted> off. By negotiating with Iran, the European/Japanese are recognising Iran as a necessary interlocuter. This undermines the Israeli position of pure military coercion. The US has to negotiate. Of course the US/Israel can ignore all this. Israel might pursue its Greater Israel plan to extend the borders to the Euphrates. If it does that, it will destroy itself. Their choice. The US might ignore, and essentially destroy the alliances with Japan and NATO. I suspect there are members of the US government who want this. Tucker Carlson is right on this; he is aghast at the actions of the Trump administration, and how they are treating effectively their kith and kin as the enemy, and that there are certain members with an irrational hatred of Europe (https://youtube.com/shorts/si8IHlouCk4?si=egPF04ATEc3vyqVx) In 1956, Britain and France thought they were doing the right thing by stopping Nasser's Egypt from seizing the Suez Canal. The US stopped that, and as a result, British and Frenchmen died. Who was right? It doesn't matter, because that act by Eisenhower effectively killed off Anglo-French influence East of Suez. By 1970, Britain was gone from the Persian Gulf, ending over 100 years presence, where through establishing Protectorates, it ended the curse of slavery in the region. The end of this might mean the Arab states will tell the Americans to go, and to go quickly. America didn't protect them when they needed it, and not only that, they suffered damage because of an Israel who hates them anyhow. Now, there are many in the US, in the MAGA movement, who would welcome this turn of events. But the US will be replaced by someone, because those welath Gulf Arabs are bone idle. Possibly the Chinese. US global military power will be undiminished, but its ability to project power will be, as ally after ally requests base closures. I don't necessarily think that's a good outcome but I can see it happening, with relationships possibly irretrievably damaged, because a Septogenarian New Yorker won't treat anyone as an equal (its not an American-European thing, he treats everyone as <deleted>, even his family when it comes to it).
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