U.s. Banking Crisis: Capitalism "gone Wild"?

[LaoPo]

Extreme paychecks like the $ 70,3 Million in 2007 for another 54 year old.... Mr. Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs...a bit more than Paulson, who earned $37.8 million in 2005, his last full year as Goldman's CEO...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=exclusive

Paulson, who now earns $191,300 annually

Paulson sure took a big pay cut when he became a Treasury Secretary. I wonder whether he regrets it; It's probably not any less work. Maybe he was after power and fame and not fortune. Well he certainly is famous... or infamous, depending on your perspective and how things turn out. Most people around his age (62) would prefer to wind down... instead he got the opposite, with the entire world now on his shoulders.

Of course he was after power; they're all after power, especially if you have made more than enough money as a 'salary' man; he certainly didn't make that money working in the Pentagon, for Nixon or later for John Ehrlichman...

He was estimated in 2006, owning more than $ 700 Million...

Interesting detail:

"In July 2008 it was reported by The Daily Telegraph that: "Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has intimate relations with the Chinese elite, dating from his days at Goldman Sachs when he visited the country more than 70 times." "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Paulson

LaoPo

[midas]

I was just reported on BBC that a growing number of countries

are at risk of defaulting on their debts including S Korea, Brazil,

and Pakistan ( they reeled off more but I didnt hear them all ).

I was just wondering if a nuclear armed country ( and

one which is not 100% stable yet ) ever defaulted on the countrys debt ?

Edited October 16, 2008 by midas

[LaoPo]

You know, it's not the time now to ridicule others, it's time to listen and see if we can help each other by supplying information others may not have seen or read yet or are not even aware that info exists................... BECAUSE if our governments would have been aware of the bloody mess the bankers/financials created we would not have been in this mess in the first place !

LaoPo

Check this out Lao Po. A CEO's (on Forbes' 2008 richest 400-list; #134, Billionaire Aubrey K McClendon*- LP) forced margin liquidation drives his companys stock price lower. Why isn't he in handcuffs?

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/11/c...s-entire-stake/

OK, thats my CEO slam. Now look at this:

http://finance.aol.com/quotes/chesapeake-e...oration/chk/nys

The company has fallen well over 75% in price, yet still only yields 1.8% dividend in a cyclical business, and hasn't even touched it's 52 week low. What are these shareholders thinking?

Thanks Lanna !

........... CEO Mr. McClendon might have known something nobody knew when he sold his entire stock....(and thus creating a BUYING opportunity - for himself**):

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1224106267...=googlenews_wsj

Bloody criminals; they've never enough

* http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/54/400lis...endon_MSFH.html

** "It's now clear what one major driver of the sell-off in the company's shares this week was -- it may have presented a buying opportunity and, while it's sad to see someone wiped out, this aggressive insider buys with borrowed funds indicate strong confidence in the company."

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

I was just reported on BBC that a growing number of countries

are at risk of defaulting on their debts including S Korea, Brazil,

and Pakistan ( they reeled off more but I didnt hear them all ).

I was just wondering if a nuclear armed country ( and

one which is not 100% stable yet ) ever defaulted on the countrys debt ?

Sure, Russia.

[Naam]

I was just reported on BBC that a growing number of countries

1. are at risk of defaulting on their debts including S Korea, Brazil,

and Pakistan ( they reeled off more but I didnt hear them all ). I was just wondering if a nuclear armed country ( and one which is not 100% stable yet ) ever defaulted on the countrys debt ?

2. Sure, Russia.

1. absolute rubbish! Brazil has become end of 2007 a net CREDITOR

2. not correct. Russia defaulted in aug 1998 on domestic RUR-derivatives and a few months later on two international bonds of restructured soviet debt (PRINs and IANs). all bonds of the Russian Federation were honoured.

[lannarebirth]

I was just reported on BBC that a growing number of countries

1. are at risk of defaulting on their debts including S Korea, Brazil,

and Pakistan ( they reeled off more but I didnt hear them all ). I was just wondering if a nuclear armed country ( and one which is not 100% stable yet ) ever defaulted on the countrys debt ?

2. Sure, Russia.

1. absolute rubbish! Brazil has become end of 2007 a net CREDITOR

2. not correct. Russia defaulted in aug 1998 on domestic RUR-derivatives and a few months later on two international bonds of restructured soviet debt (PRINs and IANs). all bonds of the Russian Federation were honoured.

OK, thanks Dr. for the specific clarification.

[Naam]

OK, thanks Dr. for the specific clarification.

LRB, due to certain circumstances i know exactly what was going on 10 years ago and i will not forget what exactly was going on till the day they carry me out feet first

Edited October 16, 2008 by Naam

[Naam]

Morning Comments NY

*UBS gets 59.bln bailout,6bln franc converts to Govt

*Citigroup loses 2.8bln in 3rd qrt,cuts 11,000 jons

*Merrill posts 7.5bln loss,hurts B of A

*Hedge Funds had 43bln pulled in September

*65bln hedge fund assets frozen in Lehman PB

*Hang Seng down 4.8%, London down 3.19%

*OIL $72.63 GOLD $834

*Money Mkt rates fall as central banks infuse cash

*Credit Suisse will raise 10bln from outside investors

*Freddie mac 30yr rates 5.94% down from 6.10%

*Consumer prices unchanged due to lower fuel prices

[LaoPo]

Morning Comments NY

*UBS gets 59.bln bailout,6bln franc converts to Govt

*Citigroup loses 2.8bln in 3rd qrt,cuts 11,000 jons

*Merrill posts 7.5bln loss,hurts B of A

*Hedge Funds had 43bln pulled in September

*65bln hedge fund assets frozen in Lehman PB

*Hang Seng down 4.8%, London down 3.19%

*OIL $72.63 GOLD $834

*Money Mkt rates fall as central banks infuse cash

*Credit Suisse will raise 10bln from outside investors

*Freddie mac 30yr rates 5.94% down from 6.10%

*Consumer prices unchanged due to lower fuel prices

Good news is always welcome; look at my signature

What a world...

LaoPo

[OriginalPoster]

Morning Comments NY

*UBS gets 59.bln bailout,6bln franc converts to Govt

*Citigroup loses 2.8bln in 3rd qrt,cuts 11,000 jons

*Merrill posts 7.5bln loss,hurts B of A

*Hedge Funds had 43bln pulled in September

*65bln hedge fund assets frozen in Lehman PB

*Hang Seng down 4.8%, London down 3.19%

*OIL $72.63 GOLD $834

*Money Mkt rates fall as central banks infuse cash

*Credit Suisse will raise 10bln from outside investors

*Freddie mac 30yr rates 5.94% down from 6.10%

*Consumer prices unchanged due to lower fuel prices

Good news is always welcome; look at my signature

What a world...

LaoPo

here's Jim Sinclair's take on what's coming from his blog today:

Upcoming events:

As a result of "This is it and It is NOW":

1. US exchanges will be closed. There is a chance all world exchanges will close down. Only gold and currencies which are planetary markets will continue to trade.
   
2. Retirement programs will not pay off.
   
3. Medicare and Medicaid will at best buy you a bandage or pay for 1/4 of a visit to a free clinic.
   
4. Social security, due to the massive upcoming inflation, will provide no security for any society.
   
5. Money Market Funds will not pay off.
   
6. A CD is a gift, but not to you.
   
7. Unified central bank action has a short life.
   
8. Central banks will soon revert to the strategy of everyone for themselves.
   
9. 401Ks not self directed are headed for the toilet forever.
   
10. Exchange Traded Funds will not return the assets upon which it is based to you.
    
11. Sliver will demonstrate the fact that it is more industrial a metal than precious.
    
12. Silver is not a currency because it is simply too HEAVY to settle debts or to be universally fungible.
    
13. Silver performs best when there is reasonable industrial demand and distrust of currency. When this happens rounding up the gang and their money will have a lot to do with which party is elected.
    
14. Credit card companies are going to have to be bailed out.
    
15. GE Capital is a nuclear capable entity that has the capacity to take down the good old toaster and refrigerator manufacturer - SIGMA ZERO.
    
16. GE Capital is a huge OTC derivative dealer but somehow I do not recall that fact being discussed.
    
17. Gold is the only Honest Money because it has no liability attached to it.
    
18. Gold coins are the best way to own gold for the average investor.
    
19. When you select a junior gold, I would look for the highest quality, most bashed, highest short positioned, with real assets and real people devoid of pussy management. The situation is best if it is based in another country than the country you live in while doing business in a third and trading in multiple areas. The benefit is obvious.
    
20. Nobody ever did or will ever trade items as insurance. That is a form of madness.
    
21. At $1650 I will take my leave, having been with you to the point I promised.
    
22. The only place you will find me then is at my place of business on the ground or the web.
    

There is no question that gold will trade at or above $1650 by January 14th, 2011.

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

[midas]

The question i am asking myself is just how much extra burden of taxes

will people put up with before they simply refuse to pay any more ..........

is there a limit because this is becoming crazy !!!

First the banks, now the Olympics may have to be saved by the State

Two of the main venues in the Olympic Park may have to be nationalised, with the taxpayer paying nearly £900 million extra as the credit crunch hits the 2012 Games, The Times has learnt.

Ministers will meet Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, this week to consider ways of meeting the soaring bill after a lack of private investment. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, Tessa Jowell, the Olympics Minister, and Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary, have yet to agree how to find the cash, with Ms Blears resisting pressure to raid at least £250 million from her department.

Source :- The Times

October 20, 2008

[VegasVic]

Morning Comments NY

*UBS gets 59.bln bailout,6bln franc converts to Govt

*Citigroup loses 2.8bln in 3rd qrt,cuts 11,000 jons

*Merrill posts 7.5bln loss,hurts B of A

*Hedge Funds had 43bln pulled in September

*65bln hedge fund assets frozen in Lehman PB

*Hang Seng down 4.8%, London down 3.19%

*OIL $72.63 GOLD $834

*Money Mkt rates fall as central banks infuse cash

*Credit Suisse will raise 10bln from outside investors

*Freddie mac 30yr rates 5.94% down from 6.10%

*Consumer prices unchanged due to lower fuel prices

Update: GOLD trading down at $788 despite oil being up to $73.54 O.P.'s post about Jim Sinclairs newsletter made for some much needed comic relief this morning Thanks O.P.!!!

[flying]

Update: GOLD trading down at $788 despite oil being up to $73.54 O.P.'s post about Jim Sinclairs newsletter made for some much needed comic relief this morning Thanks O.P.!!!

Yes but why is no physical gold available? I see none & if you do it is 1k /ounce.

Whats the deal?

[Naam]

Update: GOLD trading down at $788 despite oil being up to $73.54 O.P.'s post about Jim Sinclairs newsletter made for some much needed comic relief this morning Thanks O.P.!!!

Yes but why is no physical gold available? I see none & if you do it is 1k /ounce. Whats the deal?

physical gold is available Flying. but there is a shortage of small denominations like one ounce coins. there was no way that those who supply the market could anticipate the sudden high demand caused by people who never thought of buying gold several months ago. this inspite of the fact that the small denominations (especially coins) command presently a high premium.

[flying]

physical gold is available Flying. but there is a shortage of small denominations like one ounce coins. there was no way that those who supply the market could anticipate the sudden high demand caused by people who never thought of buying gold several months ago. this inspite of the fact that the small denominations (especially coins) command presently a high premium.

Ahhhhhh---sooooooo

Thanks that makes sense. Also explains why the US Mint & others are backed up till 2009

So I was looking to invest in some Krugerrands. If I cannot find those I wonder if 1oz bars are also short? I will look & see. I am not a gold bug but thought a 10% stake might be nice.

[Naam]

physical gold is available Flying. but there is a shortage of small denominations like one ounce coins. there was no way that those who supply the market could anticipate the sudden high demand caused by people who never thought of buying gold several months ago. this inspite of the fact that the small denominations (especially coins) command presently a high premium.

Ahhhhhh---sooooooo

Thanks that makes sense. Also explains why the US Mint & others are backed up till 2009

So I was looking to invest in some Krugerrands. If I cannot find those I wonder if 1oz bars are also short? I will look & see. I am not a gold bug but thought a 10% stake might be nice.

yes they are. what is available in abundance (info dated last friday) are 500g and 1,000g bars. both are quite handy to store but difficult too divide if you want to pay for your groceries in case the supermarket does not accept "fiat money" in future (as the goldbugs claim since they lost a bundle in the 80s)

[flying]

yes they are. what is available in abundance (info dated last friday) are 500g and 1,000g bars. both are quite handy to store but difficult too divide if you want to pay for your groceries in case the supermarket does not accept "fiat money" in future (as the goldbugs claim since they lost a bundle in the 80s)

You know thinking that way I wonder who would buy 1oz of golds worth of groceries at a time anyway?

Well I guess during the insurrection bread & butter prices are up

[AlexLah]

Gold down to 13050 THB today.

Does anyone see a similair thing happening as with those brothers that where into silver some time ago?

[LaoPo]

Gold down to 13050 THB today.

Does anyone see a similair thing happening as with those brothers that where into silver some time ago?

"Silver Thursday" - 27 March 1980 - and the infamous Hunt Brothers....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt

Don't think the same will happen again whether in gold or silver.

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Morning Comments NY

*UBS gets 59.bln bailout,6bln franc converts to Govt

*Citigroup loses 2.8bln in 3rd qrt,cuts 11,000 jons

*Merrill posts 7.5bln loss,hurts B of A

*Hedge Funds had 43bln pulled in September

*65bln hedge fund assets frozen in Lehman PB

*Hang Seng down 4.8%, London down 3.19%

*OIL $72.63 GOLD $834

*Money Mkt rates fall as central banks infuse cash

*Credit Suisse will raise 10bln from outside investors

*Freddie mac 30yr rates 5.94% down from 6.10%

*Consumer prices unchanged due to lower fuel prices

Update: GOLD trading down at $788 despite oil being up to $73.54 O.P.'s post about Jim Sinclairs newsletter made for some much needed comic relief this morning Thanks O.P.!!!

Another update!!! GOLD nearing $770/ounce and falling and oil headed below $70/bbl So much for Jimbos newsletter, at least in a pinch that newsleter could come in handy in the comode

[Naam]

Gold down to 13050 THB today. Does anyone see a similair thing happening as with those brothers that where into silver some time ago?

what the Hunt brothers and their princely saudi friend tried and failed in 1979/80 is, due the transparency of the markets, nearly impossible today Alex. but there are no reliable figures available how much was bought and financed which had and still has to be unwound because of margin calls as the credit market dried up. i don't have VegasVic's crystal ball and therefore can't make any predictions but one thing is clear that the optimistic dream of some TV-members ("gold $ 1,500/ounce!") by april 2009 will not come true.

one caveat though... my opinion might be wrong if the deterioration of global economy goes on at the same pace as it is now.

[Naam]

an opinion from HSBC (VegasVic won't like it )

US Economics - Zero bound - Cutting our Fed funds view to 0.00%

20 October 2008

* Three quarters of falling GDP...

* ...is likely to drive up the unemployment rate to 8%...

* ...resulting in 10-year note yields falling to 2.9%

Despite the recent global banking rescue packages and global rate cuts, overall financial conditions have, on net, continued to tighten over the past few weeks, and as a result, we have taken another axe to our US economic forecasts. Even if some confidence was to return to markets, and we assume a modest improvement in financial conditions in our baseline for the next few quarters, much of the economic damage for the next few quarters is already done.

Amid the doom and gloom, the only upside risks we can think of right now are the bursting of the oil price bubble and the possibility that the inventory contribution to GDP might not be a drag to growth in the short-run. The sharp decline in energy prices will boost real personal disposable income in the fourth quarter, but given the wealth destruction, most, if not all, of the real income gains are likely to be saved.

On balance, however, overall conditions have turned nastier as the financial deleveraging wave continues to engulf the economy despite policy makers' efforts to jump-start lending, while negative wealth effects are set to re-intensify due to the most recent lurch down in stock prices (and probably house prices too). In addition, the recent run of economic information has been terrible, whether it be retail sales, building permits, the ISM manufacturing index, the Philly Fed index, or the anecdotal evidence in the Beige Book.

The poor September retail sales report, in particular, is cause for another cut in our Q3 consumption forecast from -1% to -3%. We are now looking for Q3 GDP to be -1%, versus our previous forecast of 0.3% published on 26 September in A Leaky TARP. But the biggest cut to growth is for Q4, where we have taken down real GDP to -2.2% from +1.0% previously. 2009 Q1 GDP is expected to be -0.5%, virtually the same as our previous forecast.

[Pakboong]

I am in no way disagreeing with Naam, he is way more versed in this stuff than I want to be. I am becoming a silver bug for a few reasons and secondarily a gold bug. In microscopic amounts I might add.

Here are a few articles reflecting "expert opinions" on silver. In particular on regarding a repeat of the Hunt era silver rush.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/9.08/outlook.html

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/9.08/lawyers.html

There are several "experts" that insist the metal markets are being manipulated by the large banks. Of course these are guys who have been touting gold and silver for years and the markets they were hoping would validate their touts, stalled recently. There are some facts that do suggest manipulation but I don't want to imply I know anything. I am just sorting information in hopes of finding some answers.

[flying]

an opinion from HSBC (VegasVic won't like it )

US Economics - Zero bound - Cutting our Fed funds view to 0.00%

That explains the email they sent me today. Cutting their interest again.

I had moved my cash out of HSBC & ING a couple weeks ago but left both accounts open.

If this keeps up banks will charge to hold your money

[VegasVic]

an opinion from HSBC (VegasVic won't like it )

US Economics - Zero bound - Cutting our Fed funds view to 0.00%

20 October 2008

* Three quarters of falling GDP...

* ...is likely to drive up the unemployment rate to 8%...

* ...resulting in 10-year note yields falling to 2.9%

Despite the recent global banking rescue packages and global rate cuts, overall financial conditions have, on net, continued to tighten over the past few weeks, and as a result, we have taken another axe to our US economic forecasts. Even if some confidence was to return to markets, and we assume a modest improvement in financial conditions in our baseline for the next few quarters, much of the economic damage for the next few quarters is already done.

Amid the doom and gloom, the only upside risks we can think of right now are the bursting of the oil price bubble and the possibility that the inventory contribution to GDP might not be a drag to growth in the short-run. The sharp decline in energy prices will boost real personal disposable income in the fourth quarter, but given the wealth destruction, most, if not all, of the real income gains are likely to be saved.

On balance, however, overall conditions have turned nastier as the financial deleveraging wave continues to engulf the economy despite policy makers' efforts to jump-start lending, while negative wealth effects are set to re-intensify due to the most recent lurch down in stock prices (and probably house prices too). In addition, the recent run of economic information has been terrible, whether it be retail sales, building permits, the ISM manufacturing index, the Philly Fed index, or the anecdotal evidence in the Beige Book.

The poor September retail sales report, in particular, is cause for another cut in our Q3 consumption forecast from -1% to -3%. We are now looking for Q3 GDP to be -1%, versus our previous forecast of 0.3% published on 26 September in A Leaky TARP. But the biggest cut to growth is for Q4, where we have taken down real GDP to -2.2% from +1.0% previously. 2009 Q1 GDP is expected to be -0.5%, virtually the same as our previous forecast.

Actually I don't think that HSBC is too far off the mark. They are an extrmemely conservative bunch and they have a view just like Goldman has a view or Bank of America has a view or the first national bank of Zimbabwe has a view I personally think that Q3 will show flat to slightly positive GDP and the next two quarters will likely be flat to slightly down, if we do see a couple of consecutive quarters of negative GDP then we will be in a official recession Givin the world financial crisis the fact that a possible recession in the U.S. may be upon us is no earthshattering news. I highly doubt that unemployment will rise to 8%, but anything is possible in this environment! If you put stock into this gloomy outlook for the states, you have to realize that the U.K. and Europe are already in far more dire straits, particularly when it comes to unemployment, so I guess everything is relative

[flying]

I just saw this & had to laugh.

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed and it closed. Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whore house and selling booze?

[VegasVic]

I just saw this & had to laugh.

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed and it closed. Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whore house and selling booze?

Joe Conforte never had any trouble making some good coin while he was running the Mustang Ranch, of course as you pointed out he was convicted of tax evaision

[LaoPo]

..worrying news....

"Under water" mortgages are growing threat to U.S.

Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:32am EDT

By Tom Brown

CAPE CORAL, Florida (Reuters) - Long before she filed for bankruptcy, Ann Neukomm was "under water" -- she owed more on her mortgage than her house was worth -- a situation more and more Americans are finding themselves in.

As the financial crisis hits Main Street America, nearly one in six U.S. homeowners are finding themselves in the same position, threatening the U.S. economy with a new wave of foreclosures and bankruptcies.

About 12 million U.S. homeowners owe more than their homes are worth, compared with 6.6 million at the end of last year and slightly more than 3 million at the close of 2006, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

"At the root it's 'the' problem," said Zandi. "If you're going to put your finger on the one thing that's gotten us into this fiasco, it's the fact that millions of homeowners are under water on their homes."

If, like Neukomm, these homeowners go into foreclosure, it would add to the oversupply of homes, delay a recovery in the housing market, and add to pressure on banks.

Already, U.S. consumer spending is slumping as homeowners find they can no longer take equity out of their homes to fund their lifestyles.

In a slowing economy, it doesn't take much to push an underwater mortgage into default.

"When you're under water and you have some kind of hit to your income or some kind of unintended expense, that's when you default. And so now we've got this noxious mix of millions of people under water and quickly rising unemployment," Zandi said.

Like Neukomm, 57, many people got into trouble by refinancing mortgages to pull out cash when rising property values made it seem like an almost risk-free deal.

She ended up filing for bankruptcy in May after failing to keep up with mortgage payments on her home in Cape Coral, a once-booming town in southwest Florida.

"It's a dirty word," said Neukomm of her bankruptcy and personal feelings of failure. "Nobody wants to say it."

Story continues here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idU...0081022?sp=true

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

..I wonder if anyone in the world is shocked nowadays if a loss of 5, 10, 20, 30 $ or € Billion is being reported....?....unless of course if a bank falls over and their own money is involved...

The losses and write-offs, worldwide, are becoming so huge that nobody gives a darn anymore because no one is able to comprehend the situation anymore...

Wachovia reports $23.9 billion loss

Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:46am EDT

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wachovia Corp reported a third-quarter loss of $23.9 billion on Wednesday, the largest quarterly loss by a banking company in the global credit crisis, underscoring the challenges Wells Fargo & Co will face when it acquires the big lender.

The loss stemmed mostly from an $18.7 billion writedown of goodwill because asset values fell. Wachovia has lost $33 billion in the last two quarters.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender added $4.76 billion to reserves for soured loans, and nearly doubled its forecast for losses on a fast-deteriorating $118.7 billion mortgage portfolio.

Wells Fargo has agreed to buy Wachovia for $15.1 billion, without any government backing to cover loan losses it said could reach $74 billion.

Story continues here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49L2ZH20081022

LaoPo

[Lopburi99]

I just saw this & had to laugh.

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed and it closed. Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whore house and selling booze?

Joe Conforte never had any trouble making some good coin while he was running the Mustang Ranch, of course as you pointed out he was convicted of tax evaision

Ever been there, Vic? Interesting place (so I hear )