Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[badge]

On agri-commods;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/economist_food-price_index

Malthusian mouthfuls

Nov 17th 2010, 14:01 by The Economist online

The price of food since 1980

FOOD prices have risen sharply this year according to The Economist's food-price index. A drought in Russia, prompting an export ban on wheat, and an unexpectedly poor corn harvest in America both took their toll. And the price of agricultural commodities could continue on their upward path. The world should prepare for “harder times ahead” according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation unless production of food crops increases significantly next year. China's government is even considering price controls on food (and energy) to tame inflation and head-off popular discontent. Yet as our index shows, in real terms food is still cheaper than it was 30 years ago.

[Chunky1]

a paper gold crash will result in more expensive physical gold. Obviously.

[Chunky1]

I love all the propagandists that just love to pick the crisis of 1979 as their starting point for various economic data: "Here is what would have happened since so and so if you bought/sold at the exact top/bottom of a bubble".

Hey you guys, back in the Tech Bubble stocks were trading with market capitalizations equal to small european nations that just shows you how cheap Google is right now historically. compared to the now bankrupt toys.com Google should probably be trading for $345,000 a share. here is a chart starting the day before the tech bubble crashed to prove this!

Edited November 19, 2010 by Chunky1

[churchill]

deleted

Edited November 19, 2010 by churchill

[lannarebirth]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

very informative!

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't it imply there's a huge Gold bubble in relation to other commodities, some of which have diminishing reserves as well?

[Naam]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

very informative!

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't it imply there's a huge Gold bubble in relation to other commodities, some of which have diminishing reserves as well?

there's nothing wrong with bubbles... as long as they don't burst. an acquaintance of mine inherited a couple of years ago a rather modest chalet in St. Moritz, Switzerland. his grandparents bought it in 1954 for 11,500 Swiss Francs. he has offers ranging from 3.2 to 3.6 million Swiss Francs.

[cloudhopper]

food & energy might be the place to be.

Especially actually having some physical if there is a currency crisis.

However if there is a true overwhelming deflationary avalanche of defaulting debt then the price of gold will drop along with everything else that can be liquidated and physical cash will be king IMO.

Interesting times are ahead either way.

[lannarebirth]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

very informative!

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't it imply there's a huge Gold bubble in relation to other commodities, some of which have diminishing reserves as well?

there's nothing wrong with bubbles... as long as they don't burst. an acquaintance of mine inherited a couple of years ago a rather modest chalet in St. Moritz, Switzerland. his grandparents bought it in 1954 for 11,500 Swiss Francs. he has offers ranging from 3.2 to 3.6 million Swiss Francs.

I'm not even sure if I took away the correct meaning of the Gold based charts.

I agree, nothing wrong with bubbles, especially in sectors that have zero effect on the economy as a whole(like Gold). I think a bubble in the primary housing market is a bigger problem though.

So, I'm sitting in a hotel bar in St. Moritz about 15 years ago. The Chicagoan I'm speaking with is knocking back $50 shots of some Scottish single malt all the while complaining about how much his wife spent "in the shops" and how expensive Vienna was.

[flying]

food & energy might be the place to be.

Especially actually having some physical if there is a currency crisis.

However if there is a true overwhelming deflationary avalanche of defaulting debt then the price of gold will drop along with everything else that can be liquidated and physical cash will be king IMO.

Interesting times are ahead either way.

Depends on the crisis I think

I mean physical cash is only the place to be if it is still potent...

I do agree in a market crash the paper price of all things will also crash on the markets.

Including paper metals, energy & foods/ag's

But again depending on severity of crisis physical things will seek their own value in the aftermath.

Agreed interesting times ahead though & I have no qualms about being 50/50 although at today's valuations

it has moved to 61/39 due to appreciation of PM's

Edited November 19, 2010 by flying

[churchill]

I think the trend still seems up in Gold and Silver / and with the BIG problems in Ireland and Euro / Europe ............/ and US ...

Who would want to sell ?

Gold continues to rule firm, silver at fresh all-time high

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/gold-continues-to-rule-firm-silver-at-fresh-all-time-high/116613/on

[Naam]

food & energy might be the place to be.

Especially actually having some physical if there is a currency crisis.

However if there is a true overwhelming deflationary avalanche of defaulting debt then the price of gold will drop along with everything else that can be liquidated and physical cash will be king IMO.

Interesting times are ahead either way.

Depends on the crisis I think

I mean physical cash is only the place to be if it is still potent...

I do agree in a market crash the paper price of all things will also crash on the markets.

Including paper metals, energy & foods/ag's

But again depending on severity of crisis physical things will seek their own value in the aftermath.

Agreed interesting times ahead though & I have no qualms about being 50/50 although at today's valuations

it has moved to 61/39 due to appreciation of PM's

1. physical cash?

2. we had a market crash in autumn 2008. how much better did physical gold fare vs. paper gold?

[Naam]

I think the trend still seems up in Gold and Silver / and with the BIG problems in Ireland and Euro / Europe ............/ and US ...

Who would want to sell ?

Gold continues to rule firm, silver at fresh all-time high

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/gold-continues-to-rule-firm-silver-at-fresh-all-time-high/116613/on

where does the gold come from which people buy? from fairy queens who exchange cash deposited under the pillow with Krüger-Rands and gold bars?

are goldbugs not aware of the fact that for every ounce that can be bought there must be somebody who sells an ounce?

[flying]

1. physical cash?

2. we had a market crash in autumn 2008. how much better did physical gold fare vs. paper gold?

:lol:

1) Do you like that? I think I should TM it

Physical cash is like physical metals...in your possession not a bank book/CD etc

2) I know what you mean but do not consider 2008 a crash. I was thinking more along the lines of the

of the two types I showed pictures of.

I mean the 2008 thing was what? It was easily cured by the creation of digital dollars given freely to the chosen & then the chosen

ran to the casino markets & threw it all at it.Thus creating this illusion that few now truly believe.

But of course the paper vs physical showed no divergence. Prop anything with that many counterfeit dollars & it will have the illusion of remaining upright.

Yet how many times will the counterfeit rescue method be able to be used?

I hope I am wrong but I think the real crash will be when it no longer works.

Lastly if tomorrow it was law that regarding metals the spot price was based on what actually physically exists..( or at least not corrupted future contracts/ naked shorts )..you would already see the difference in the former two prices.....So why not if a crash caused the same emperor has no clothes eye opener would the result be any different?

Just me wondering mind you

Edited November 20, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

I know what you mean but do not consider 2008 a crash

a walk in the park?

[flying]

I know what you mean but do not consider 2008 a crash

a walk in the park?

More like a trial to judge & test reaction.

But as I said I do not expect the reaction to work over & over

[churchill]

'are goldbugs not aware of the fact that for every ounce that can be bought there must be somebody who sells an ounce?'

Of course - but demand is increasing can supply keep up /

'Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS Ltd., said that central banks will buy roughly 50 net tonnes of gold in 2010 and 150 tonnes in 2011 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completes its gold sales program.

"We do think that the risk is stacked to the upside in terms of the potential for the net buying of gold by emerging market central banks. This will be even more the case if confidence drops further in the US dollar or in the US government debt market," Klapwijk said.'

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=6399668f-6396-4add-99c2-54ae4f394b55

and for silver from http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

'The usa mint revealed yesterday, a massive volume of sales so far this month equal to almost 3.8 million oz This is deadly to the bankers as the comex is not getting the silver it needs to satisfy long contracts. The USA produces around 40 million oz of silver per year out of the world's global production of 600 million-700 million oz. Silver is mainly produced as a bi-product as there are few purely silver producers.

Demand for silver has been rising and at last count it is 900 million oz. Scrap silver and officially hidden China silver, balance the difference.

The USA must use all of its domestic production in the minting of their silver eagle/silver commemoratives. If the mint continually has demand for 3.8 million oz this month,or 46 million oz for the year, then the USA must import silver from other sources to fulfil their needs. This will happen at the exact same time as Sprott scours the planet for his silver as will the Central Fund of Canada. Jewellers will also demand silver. Thus the comex and the mint must now import badly needed silver to fulfil their needs.'

[churchill]

The Russian Central Bank purchased another 600k ozs of gold in October (some is purchased on the open market, some is purchased from internal mining production).

'Year-to-date Russia has accumulated 4.6 million ounces. That's roughly 131 tonnes. That's a lot of gold, especially considering that the ECB sold barely any of the 400 tonnes permitted under the Washington Agreement. Now we know why the IMF decided to unload 404 tonnes. Think about where the price of gold might be if the IMF had not supplied the world this year.'

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/while-us-prints-and-spends-russia-loads.html

[churchill]

[Naam]

The Russian Central Bank purchased another 600k ozs of gold in October (some is purchased on the open market, some is purchased from internal mining production).

'Year-to-date Russia has accumulated 4.6 million ounces. That's roughly 131 tonnes. That's a lot of gold, especially considering that the ECB sold barely any of the 400 tonnes permitted under the Washington Agreement. Now we know why the IMF decided to unload 404 tonnes. Think about where the price of gold might be if the IMF had not supplied the world this year.'

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/while-us-prints-and-spends-russia-loads.html

think what if the IMF really had supplied gold. fact is that the IMF has not supplied any gold to the market no matter what "pump-the-truth.blackbullspot" might claim. India paid with SDR to limit the impact of dollar depreciation.

[Naam]

'are goldbugs not aware of the fact that for every ounce that can be bought there must be somebody who sells an ounce?'

Of course - but demand is increasing can supply keep up /

topic missed, grade "failed".

homework:

logic lesson 101 "no buyer without seller!"

logic lesson 102 "no supply = no buyer!"

Edited November 21, 2010 by Naam

[churchill]

logic lesson 101 "no buyer without seller!" - fewer sellers more buyers = higher prices

logic lesson 102 "no supply = no buyer!" - reduced supply increased demand = higher prices

[Naam]

"fewer sellers more buyers"

logic lesson 103 = the volume bought matches always the volume sold, irrespective of any price movements.

[churchill]

logic lesson 103 = the volume bought matches always the volume sold, irrespective of any price movements.

of course but the buyers may want more than is available so pushing demand and prices even higher /

Anyway that is the point and in my view more demand less supply higher prices /

[Chunky1]

Naam is trolling this thread pretty hard lately. lol.

[Chunky1]

less gold supply wont increase the price of gold 5555

[Naam]

Naam is trolling this thread pretty hard lately. lol.

and Chunky has nothing to say except yada, yada, yakety-yak

[Naam]

Flying, you are the "ratio expert". any explanation for the fluctuation 49.xx > 53.xx > 49.xx?

[Chunky1]

are there any laws against taking gold out of thailand/bars not jewelry?

[flying]

Soros Gold Bubble Expanding as ETFs Hold Nine Years of U.S. Mine Supplies

Investors in options on Comex gold futures are anticipating the rally will continue. The second-most widely held option gives holders the right to buy gold at $2,000 by November 2011.

[Naam]

Investors in options on Comex gold futures are anticipating the rally will continue. The second-most widely held option gives holders the right to buy gold at $2,000 by November 2011.

a bargain!