Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[jcon]

Spot silver is going to get a 3-handle in about, errr.... 30 mins. The past few days alone has minted millionaires and blown out others. Incredible moves, truth be told.

[Naam]

Spot silver is going to get a 3-handle in about, errr.... 30 mins.

there... there... you wicked Jcon-man! why is yew skaring da living beejesass out da silva bulls?

[12DrinkMore]

Do I detect a small difference of opinion within the Naam household?

no joke is that i don't like what i see. nothing really specific, nothing to pinpoint but a funny gut feeling. increasing cash today by ~14% if/when pending sales orders are executed.

the Mrs bought Crédit Suisse 999.9 in BKK at 14.28hrs (she checked Kitco price with me which was $1,533) and paid THB 46,350/ounce.

[churchill]

German Lawmakers Urge Portugal to Mull Gold Sale, Passauer Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/german-lawmakers-urge-portugal-to-mull-gold-sale-passauer-says.html

If it's still there and owned not leased /

Mexico, Russia, Thailand Expand Gold Reserves by $6 Billion

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-04/mexico-russia-thailand-expand-gold-reserves-by-6-billion.html

Edited May 4, 2011 by churchill

[flying]

yuk-yuks aside.... flying come on, 17% over spot is ridiculous. You may think that spot and physical are disjointed somehow because of ''the lack of physical silver,'' but let's not forgot that for all intents and purposes, across the world, in every commodity, spot IS THE PRICE.

Hey dont shoot the messenger

I am not the one selling or making the prem but it is what it is.

APMEX American Precious Metals Exchange

[flying]

somewhere something does not fit Flying. the Mrs bought Crédit Suisse 999.9 in BKK at 14.28hrs (she checked Kitco price with me which was $1,533) and paid THB 46,350/ounce.

using THB TT rate 29.90 (SCB 14.21hrs) = 45,867 = THB 513 = $ 17.16 above spot.

what do you mean by "based on eagles"? coins?

Yes at the time I was using eagles as an example.

But the premium above spot has been pretty across the board on coins 1oz

Maples & Philharmonics about $6.89 over spot

Silver No name 1 0z bars are running $3.79 over spot

Gold Bars like you describe are today running $49.99/oz over spot for a single oz & drops to 39 for quantities

http://www.apmex.com/Product/11950/1_oz_Credit_Suisse_Gold_Bar_9999_Fine_in_AssayMay_12th.aspx

Of course if Mrs. Naam was buying a large quantity ???

If not...good deal for her compared to here in the US

Edited May 4, 2011 by flying

[lannarebirth]

somewhere something does not fit Flying. the Mrs bought Crédit Suisse 999.9 in BKK at 14.28hrs (she checked Kitco price with me which was $1,533) and paid THB 46,350/ounce.

using THB TT rate 29.90 (SCB 14.21hrs) = 45,867 = THB 513 = $ 17.16 above spot.

what do you mean by "based on eagles"? coins?

Yes at the time I was using eagles as an example.

But the premium above spot has been pretty across the board on coins 1oz

Maples & Philharmonics about $6.89 over spot

Silver No name 1 0z bars are running $3.79 over spot

Gold Bars like you describe are today running $49.99/oz over spot for a single oz & drops to 39 for quantities

http://www.apmex.com...ayMay_12th.aspx

Of course if Mrs. Naam was buying a large quantity ???

If not...good deal for her compared to here in the US

If Ben Bernake were running that show we'd be calling for his head. Just say'in.

[flying]

If Ben Bernake were running that show we'd be calling for his head. Just say'in.

Well in a sense he is .....isn't he?

Actually he just announced the reason for drop in the metals & oil here.....

Seems they have cleared the US debt. They now have no reason for raising the debt ceiling

All is fixed.....It seems OBL Swiss accounts have been frozen.

Who would have guessed.....He had 15 Trillion

All is right in the US today :lol:

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Ok back in the real world they want to raise the debt to 16+ trillion???

Treasury suggests $2 trillion U.S. debt cap raise:

Edited May 4, 2011 by flying

[gregb]

Who would have guessed.....He had 15 Trillion

Wait...I thought he did? Didn't the Bernacke say way back in 2002 that it "has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost".

Doesn't sound like someone had to guess about this. I think the Bernacke flat out told us it had the money.

[Naam]

Spot silver is going to get a 3-handle in about, errr.... 30 mins.

there... there... you wicked Jcon-man! why is yew skaring da living beejesass out da silva bulls?

hmmm... except for the errr... 30 mins the wicked Jcon-man was errr... right on the money :jap:

[Naam]

Gold Bars like you describe are today running $49.99/oz over spot for a single oz & drops to 39 for quantities

...good deal for her compared to here in the US

please define "quantity" Flying. are you referring to a quantity/multiple of 1-ounce bars or to single bars with a higher weight? all i know (based on the lecturings of Mrs Naam) is that buying physical fine gold in Thailand is much cheaper than in Europe and even cheaper when you go for the common 965 "Thai gold" and that applies to the "sell/buy spread" too.

[flying]

Gold Bars like you describe are today running $49.99/oz over spot for a single oz & drops to 39 for quantities

...good deal for her compared to here in the US

please define "quantity" Flying. are you referring to a quantity/multiple of 1-ounce bars or to single bars with a higher weight? all i know (based on the lecturings of Mrs Naam) is that buying physical fine gold in Thailand is much cheaper than in Europe and even cheaper when you go for the common 965 "Thai gold" and that applies to the "sell/buy spread" too.

Yes when I referred to quantity I meant quantity. Not necessary to be one ounce bars.

Premiums always drop with quantity. Whether buy 20 one ounce bars or one 20 ounce brick

the prem will drop.

I am a bit surprised that the difference was as much as you described but...Good for Mrs Naam

I too get a better premium from my dealer but just assumed he was less greedy than the bigger dealers.

Although I have not added any in the last year or so....when I did his premium was always lower than the

big shops in the US.

The reason I say I was surprised is over the years I randomly look at the bigger Thai dealers & convert prices + premium

& usually found it to be quite equal taking into account 965 vs 999 gold etc.

But again good on Mrs. Naam for finding the deal

[Naam]

Premiums always drop with quantity. Whether buy 20 one ounce bars or one 20 ounce brick the prem will drop.

that does not apply when buying bullion in (most of) Europe. 32 one ounce bars will be much more expensive than a 1kg bar and if you go for mini bullion (1 and 5g bars) then you pay through your nose.

[flying]

Premiums always drop with quantity. Whether buy 20 one ounce bars or one 20 ounce brick the prem will drop.

that does not apply when buying bullion in (most of) Europe. 32 one ounce bars will be much more expensive than a 1kg bar and if you go for mini bullion (1 and 5g bars) then you pay through your nose.

Sorry my description was lacking & what you say is across the board true even here in the US

Coins more than bars & fractionals ( mini as you called them ) even more than either 1oz coins or bars

But what I meant was when you increase your quantity in either sector the premium goes down here in the US

[flying]

Very Large purchase for someone like Mexico

Huge gold purchase by Mexico's central bank: 100 tonnesBy Jack Farchy

Financial Times, London

Wednesday, May 4, 2011http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cbc02e10-7637-11e0-b4f7-00144feabdc0,s01=1.htm...

The central bank of Mexico bought nearly 100 tonnes of gold in February and March, the latest emerging market country to turn to bullion as a means of diversifying away from the faltering dollar.

The purchase is one of the largest by a central bank in recent history. The gold, worth $4.6 billion at current prices, is equivalent to about 3.5 per cent of annual mined output.

The central bank has not been publicly announced the move but has reported it both on its own balance sheet, posted it online, and reported it to the International Monetary Fund's statistics on international reserves.

Central banks became net buyers of gold last year after two decades of heavy selling, a dramatic reversal that has helped propel the price of bullion to a series of record highs.

On Wednesday morning, gold was trading at $1,535 a troy ounce, down from the nominal record of $1,575.79 touched on Monday.

Mexico follows other booming emerging-market economies, including China, India, and Russia, which have all made large additions to their gold reserves in recent years.

Matthew Turner, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi, the Japanese trading house, said the purchase "seems to confirm there's an appetite now among emerging economies with large forex reserves to add to their gold reserves. Gold is seen as one way in which to diversify away from the dollar- or euro-denominated assets."

The dollar has plunged 10 per cent since January against the world's major currencies and is trading near an all-time low. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, has suggested that gold should form part of a new international monetary system.

China announced in 2009 that it had bought 454 tonnes of gold over the previous six years; India bought 200 tonnes of gold directly from the International Monetary Fund in October 2009; and Russia has bought just less than 400 tonnes on the open market over the past five years.

However, Mexico's buying in February and March, which amounted to 93.3 tonnes of gold, is one of the most rapid programmes of accumulation on record. Apart from India's off-market purchase in 2009, the 78.5 tonnes bought in March is the largest monthly purchase by a central bank in at least a decade, according to data from the World Gold Council.

The Bank of Mexico could not be reached for comment on Wednesday morning.

-END-

[flying]

And Scene: CME Hikes Silver Margin For Third Time In 7 Days, Raises Initial, Maintenance Margins By 12%

And this now makes 4x they have raised the margin in a very short period

CME Hikes Silver Margins By 17%: 4th Hike In 8 Trading Days

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 17:36 -0400

Nobody could have foreseen this. Nobody. At this point there is nothing left to comment on what is a concerted action to "mitigate" any and all risk in the commodity market but could as well be classified as executive order 6102.5. While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth, we are now forced to reevaluate this sarcasm.

CME Silver: www.scribd.com/doc/54646987/cme-silver-change-remove

(www.zerohedge.com)

[cloudhopper]

Very Large purchase for someone like Mexico

I wonder who they bought 100 tons off of...

[flying]

Very Large purchase for someone like Mexico

I wonder who they bought 100 tons off of...

I know I didn't sell them any & I am pretty sure Mrs. Naam didn't sell them any either

[flying]

[flying]

Hey Thailand...way to go

Central Banks Expand Gold Reserves With $6 Billion in Purchases

Mexico, Russia and Thailand added gold now valued at about $6 billion to their reserves in February and March as prices advanced to a record, the dollar weakened and Treasuries lost investors money.

Mexico bought 93.3 metric tons since January, increasing holdings from about 6.9 tons, according to data from the International Monetary Fund, and the nation’s central bank later said it purchased 100 tons in recent months. Russia increased reserves 18.8 tons to 811.1 tons in March and Thailand expanded assets 9.3 tons to 108.9 tons in the same month, the data show.

Full article at link above

Edited May 5, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

This might help - As was ordered !

'Since April 26 (seven trading days) iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest physical metal-backed silver exchange traded fund has seen a remarkable measure of negative money flow. In that short time period selling pressure for the shares of SLV so overwhelmed buying pressure in the very popular silver ETF that authorized participants found it necessary to sell 1,002.8 metric tonnes of silver bars from a record high 11,390.06 to 10,387.26 tonnes as of Wednesday, May 04, 2011.

SLV reported the second largest-ever one-day decline in metal holdings Wednesday, May 4, a reduction of 521.8 tonnes or about 16,776 of the big, average 1,000-ounce good delivery bars held for the ETF by its custodian, JP Morgan Chase, London.'

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/05/silver-clobbered-on-multiple-fronts.html#more

I think short term corrections in Gold/Silver / The HUI was up yesterday ! as were GDX , GDXJ - SIL down only .19% despite Silver's plunge

[churchill]

Gold: Panicking or Buying?

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/daily/5212/gold-panicking-or-buying

[RedFxTrade]

Gold: Panicking or Buying?

http://sharecrazy.co...cking-or-buying

I think personally the mid to late summer will be the time to get into precious metals again. Although silver has fell a lot quickly. I still think we could get down to the $26-$33 range. Why such a wide estimate? Well as we have seen silver can cover this ground in a matter of hours.

This might be slightly off topic, but the focus seems to be on silver and gold at the moment. Has anyone considered the next parabolic move in the commodity spectrum could be sugar. I have been studying the supply/demand and price action in sugar lately. It is really the only commodity left that has not reached its last nominal high since the 1970s of $0.66. It is now around $0.21. I think we are going to get a big USD rally for the next 3-6 months. The retail traders have been heavily net long the USD for months now. This latest plunge in the USD seems to have caused most of the retails USD longs to throw in the towel. They have reduced their longs by 15-20% in the last week. On the other side of the coin, the non-commercials, large traders have been short the USD, but net short positions although still extremely net short, have reduced somewhat. Classic bottoming sign. This could hurt precious metals more than most think.

Anyway the sugar trade might be an alternative, or one to do in conjunction with silver. Here are a couple of posts I have done on it Sugar The Next Great Buy and Silver/Sugar technicals Revisited. I have been a poster on here in the past, just signed in with my twitter account, just in case you think I m shamelessly plugging my website. On another note Sugar measured in Gold is down 50% over the last year. The way I look at it is gold is the only stable money left, and so acts as a measure of value. Interesting that Marc Faber said of late that in a world where central banks are printing money, you cannot value anything. If gold is stable and acting as a true money, then I think it makes since to value other items in gold as it will give a better relative value of that said asset. If you look at commodities priced in gold, sugar is cheap. Natural gas is cheap also. Some food for thought.

Must go an get my pallet truck, and get to Tesco for a couple of pallets of sugar, haha.

[Naam]

Just imagine the volatility when the Navy Seals finally breach Llloyd Blanfein's secret lair and take him out.

no joke is that i don't like what i see. nothing really specific, nothing to pinpoint but a funny gut feeling. increasing cash today by ~14% if/when pending sales orders are executed.

i still have no idea why my guts keep on telling me "sell!" but they were right yesterday and i followed their advice today too.

[churchill]

Just imagine the volatility when the Navy Seals finally breach Llloyd Blanfein's secret lair and take him out.

no joke is that i don't like what i see. nothing really specific, nothing to pinpoint but a funny gut feeling. increasing cash today by ~14% if/when pending sales orders are executed.

i still have no idea why my guts keep on telling me "sell!" but they were right yesterday and i followed their advice today too.

Trader Naam !

Gold is not easy - I sometimes get an itchy palm - but not at this time /

With PM's I think better to look at the overall picture and if one believes - Buy and hold - but be ready to take profits at times - as I did a couple of weeks ago /

[lannarebirth]

Just imagine the volatility when the Navy Seals finally breach Llloyd Blanfein's secret lair and take him out.

no joke is that i don't like what i see. nothing really specific, nothing to pinpoint but a funny gut feeling. increasing cash today by ~14% if/when pending sales orders are executed.

i still have no idea why my guts keep on telling me "sell!" but they were right yesterday and i followed their advice today too.

I wasn't sure if you were talking about Gold or some of your other Bond stuff. If that's the latter then that's a considerable liquidation.

Certainly external "noise" is getting ratcheted up. One wonders if all this recent A Q activity is the culmination of something or if it's an attempt to headoff a "known unknown".

Edited May 5, 2011 by lannarebirth

[jcon]

wait for it..... wait.................

aahahhahhahhahahhhhahahhahahhaahHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHA

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA.

We've seen this type of chart before and there are always people who just don't get it that the trade is over and then end up ''averaging down''into oblivion. Then comes the ''well I bought at 5$ so I'm good''-type of responses. That's when you know it's all way beyond over. It has happened before and it will happen again. No amount of ''but but but'' is going to change that.

[lannarebirth]

wait for it..... wait.................

aahahhahhahhahahhhhahahhahahhaahHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHA

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA.

We've seen this type of chart before and there are always people who just don't get it that the trade is over and then end up ''averaging down''into oblivion. Then comes the ''well I bought at 5$ so I'm good''-type of responses. That's when you know it's all way beyond over. It has happened before and it will happen again. No amount of ''but but but'' is going to change that.

Time will tell. Might just be going back to test one of those breakouts it hadn't previously. OTOH:

[jcon]

She's got a long way to go to test those breakout levels.

The price action near the top has was nothing short of manic. From what I've seen, that's not a good thing. But as you say, time will tell - it always does.

There were/are just too many people in a crowded trade. Add massive leverage and you're going to get swings like we've seen. It is just my opinion that it will get crushed.

edit: I'm still going to go with 18/oz by the end of the summer.

Edited May 5, 2011 by jcon

[jcon]

I said this a few posts ago but now I'm saying it again - I think something's up.

I feel like we are on the verge of:

1. Fierce Dollar rally

2. Commodity take-down (crude, and yes, GOLD)

DXY? Above 80?

Gold @ 13xx by the end of summer, and like I mentioned above Silver <20 (18)?

Crude, who knows. 80?

USD/JPY I have no idea but we're below 80 again. What would happen to this pair in a huge USD rally?

EUR, AUD taken-down by end of year.

(I see now that's a lot of "80"s...)

I'm sure there are those who disagree (and probably strongly), but that's what I feel and I'm going with my gut on this one. Other opinions welcome. I like to finish (minimize) all of my trades before I go home for the summer, but right now I feel like putting something on. Ideas?