Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Ron Paul proposes that the US sell gold to pay its debt

assuming that the official figures are correct all [u.S.] gold in Fort Knox wouldn't be enough to reduce federal debt by 3 (THREE) percent. indeed a hare-brained (not hair-brained) idea of Ron Paul especially as he (allegedly) mentioned

"should sell some of its gold" to pay its debt.

[flying]

Ron Paul proposes that the US sell gold to pay its debt

assuming that the official figures are correct all [u.S.] gold in Fort Knox wouldn't be enough to reduce federal debt by 3 (THREE) percent. indeed a hare-brained (not hair-brained) idea of Ron Paul especially as he (allegedly) mentioned

"should sell some of its gold" to pay its debt.

From what I know of RP through his books I find it hard to believe.

Although then again you dont hear any other politicians talk about any real ways to reduce the debt...

But, I tend to think that

1) there is some kind of misreporting here

or

2) It is his private joke to make them admit there is very little or no gold in fort knox

[flying]

George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble," dumped almost his entire $800m stake in bullion in the first quarter.

Soros offloaded the stake well before a commodities slump blamed partly on reports he was liquidating his holdings, according to Reuters.

Interestingly, someone on Kitco was saying that things are getting worse and could be an indication he is moving into physical.

The first thing I thought back when Soros announced he was getting out of metals ETF's

was that.... it is true he is a smart man

Edited May 18, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

1) there is some kind of misreporting here

or

2) It is his private joke to make them admit there is very little or no gold in fort knox

neither nor seems to be the case:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ron+paul+sell+gold&hl=en&num=10&lr=&ft=i&cr=&safe=images&tbs=

[flying]

1) there is some kind of misreporting here

or

2) It is his private joke to make them admit there is very little or no gold in fort knox

neither nor seems to be the case:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ron+paul+sell+gold&hl=en&num=10&lr=&ft=i&cr=&safe=images&tbs=

I dont know......Seems like #2 is still a good bet

From your link.....

http://www.nysun.com/national/selling-gold-at-fort-knox-emerges-as-next-big/87350/

In August 2010, a leading figure in the monetary debate in Congress, Ron Paul, a Republican of Texas, called for an audit of the federal government’s gold reserves. “If there was no question, you’d think they would be very anxious to prove to us that the gold is there. . . . ,” Dr. Paul then said, “In the early 1980s when I was on the gold commission, I asked them to recommend to the Congress that they audit the gold reserves – we had 17 members of the commission and 15 voted not to the audit. I think there was only one decent audit done 50 years ago.”

“If we ever get around to deciding we should use gold in relationship to our currency we ought to know how much is there,” Dr. Paul added, “Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?

[RedFxTrade]

What are the chances that China will slowdown? Highly, highly probable. Never has a country been able to grow GDP year on year ad infinitum. China has been growing year after year at near 10%. Anyone aware of the exponential function knows this cannot continue. Something will stop it. So rather than asking will China slowdown, the more approproate question should be, "When?" Has any country ever continued to grow forever without a negative GDP print? Again the answer is no. Yet many talk of a slowing in growth to 5% in China is a major slow down. How about China going into negative growth, ie, a recession? Never entertained, nevermind talked about. But yet there is no precedent in history where this has been the case. So what will make China different that it can buck the trend? Timing has been elusive so far, but it is not a question of "if" but "when"

The answers to that paragraph are key to the the next phase of the development of the world's economies. If the answers were clear we could be very rich in a few years. As regards the exponential function, this applies to all "year on year" figures. All economies are planning for never ending exponential growth. As you say, either something must give, or more likely the metrics used will be manipulated until some real resource limit is hit. A convenient way of doing this is to play around with the inflation figure.

China, and indeed Asia, is a fascinating topic.

There is still a huge amount of hubris in the west about western superiority. But don't forget it is only since the late eighteenth century that west led development in the world due to the industrial revolution, leading to a couple of centuries of growth and development, escalating western countries to the forefront. Somehow I don't think the Chinese have forgotten this and I also doubt whether the Chinese will allow the trade and manufacturing advantage they now have and are developing to slip through their hands again.

As the west rapidly improved their standard of living by manufacturing and selling goods to their own people (this was not export driven), why shouldn't the Chinese, now standing on the shoulders of western development with a huge amount of cash to spend (they don't have to keep buying up Tim's bits of paper after all), not be able to develop their own internal markets to drive up their own standard of living to equal or surpass that of the west? They have a huge undeveloped internal market. And then add in India and the other Asian countries. All focused on education and technology development, and very keen to take on the quality standards that successful western countries such as Germany are showing them.

To write off the Asians as being limited in their future growth must surely imply that at that point the western countries are well into decline, as all the resource factors that would limit Asian growth must surely also apply to the west?

I agree. The internal market is huge in Asia. It will be fascinating to watch inner developments over the region, brands appearing, technology, the emergence of the Chinese traveller, the growth in health care, water management. Much more exciting area of the world to live than the West. The West feels like an old peoples home with a slight stench of piss. Everything is over regulated, government thinks it can run and interfere in every facet of our life.

Of course there will loads of problems along the way, stock crashes, recessions. Remember the Asian crisis over 10 years ago? Well I don't as I was in my teens then,haha, oh halcyon days but I have read up on it, and apart from the remnants of a few ghost buildings in Bangkok, the region has recovered well, Malaysia and Indonesia also.

The worrying thing at this moment is the real estate bubble, and how that will impact Chinese banking. But as you say over the long term it will probably just be one of many blips along the way.

[churchill]

1) there is some kind of misreporting here

or

2) It is his private joke to make them admit there is very little or no gold in fort knox

neither nor seems to be the case:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ron+paul+sell+gold&hl=en&num=10&lr=&ft=i&cr=&safe=images&tbs=

I dont know......Seems like #2 is still a good bet

From your link.....

http://www.nysun.com/national/selling-gold-at-fort-knox-emerges-as-next-big/87350/

In August 2010, a leading figure in the monetary debate in Congress, Ron Paul, a Republican of Texas, called for an audit of the federal government’s gold reserves. “If there was no question, you’d think they would be very anxious to prove to us that the gold is there. . . . ,” Dr. Paul then said, “In the early 1980s when I was on the gold commission, I asked them to recommend to the Congress that they audit the gold reserves – we had 17 members of the commission and 15 voted not to the audit. I think there was only one decent audit done 50 years ago.”

“If we ever get around to deciding we should use gold in relationship to our currency we ought to know how much is there,” Dr. Paul added, “Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?

Ron Paul Says Sell Gold to Pay Down National Debt? No Chance

seems from Mish ... 'People have been sending me an article all evening that says Ron Paul proposes selling gold to pay down the national debt. The article is nonsense and it took me all of 5 seconds to spot the error.

Somehow the New York Sun confused Ron Paul with some clown I have never heard of named Ron Utt, or the Sun misrepresented a statement Paul made.'

CONTINUED ...http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/ron-paul-says-sell-gold-no-chance.html

Edited May 18, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

However - this appeared on his twitter .. So ??

'RonPaulNews Ron Paul News

Ron Paul: Sell the Government’s Gold http://bit.ly/lCZYbZ | LRPT'

[RedFxTrade]

Excellent Russell Napier interview on the long view...S+P to 400

Great reset coming. Emerging market currency will be the place to take shelter.

I m not so sure about this above statement. I actually think that the emerging market money flows could reverse and we could see a weakening of these currencies as they have been effectively a carry trade beneficiary. I would have liked John Authers to ask him about gold and the USD in this environment he describes, although a clue is that he says commodities will be hit hard. Does he expect a falling S+P, falling T-Bonds, and a falling USD? Or will the USD rise in this situation. I think we are at an incredibly important juncture right now on what will happen next. A lot of careful thinking of all the possibilities is required.

Thoughts anyone?

I think the idea of buying a series of out of the money put options on US T-Bonds is very attractive at this juncture. The Lehman TLT etf is going to have cheap options today.

[teletiger]

Is it any wonder that US presidents seem to play lots of golf?

Any questions of the MIC. "I'm sorry Mr President, plausible deniability, you understand".

Fort Knox. "I'm sorry Mr president, National security, you understand".

The federal reserve. "HAHAHAHAHA, you understand".

He used to play "plants v's zombies", but they kept eating his brain.

One wonders why he's going for a second term.....he must know he's the fallguy, right?

I'm with Flying on Ron Paul. Just a friendly dig in the ribs.

Regards.

[midas]

double post

Edited May 18, 2011 by midas

[midas]

The worrying thing at this moment is the real estate bubble, and how that will impact Chinese banking. But as you say over the long term it will probably just be one of many blips along the way.

case in point

http://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-video-on-chinese-ghost-cities-2011-5

[jcon]

Excellent Russell Napier interview on the long view...S+P to 400

Great reset coming. Emerging market currency will be the place to take shelter.

I m not so sure about this above statement. I actually think that the emerging market money flows could reverse and we could see a weakening of these currencies as they have been effectively a carry trade beneficiary. I would have liked John Authers to ask him about gold and the USD in this environment he describes, although a clue is that he says commodities will be hit hard. Does he expect a falling S+P, falling T-Bonds, and a falling USD? Or will the USD rise in this situation. I think we are at an incredibly important juncture right now on what will happen next. A lot of careful thinking of all the possibilities is required.

Thoughts anyone?

I think the idea of buying a series of out of the money put options on US T-Bonds is very attractive at this juncture. The Lehman TLT etf is going to have cheap options today.

I'm not sure I can comment on the S&P call but everybody is going to talk their book so when it comes to this stuff one has to take a few steps back.

About the options, I don't know what volatility is like in the options you mentioned but I probably would not be buying volatility right now. I would guess that vol is rich at the moment. Anything out of the money is going to have a big fat premium in it and could get crushed in volatility terms. Just my 2 cents going into the summer.

[RedFxTrade]

The worrying thing at this moment is the real estate bubble, and how that will impact Chinese banking. But as you say over the long term it will probably just be one of many blips along the way.

case in point

http://www.businessi...t-cities-2011-5

Thanks for that Midas. It is truly frightening amount of construction. I do not doubt people will move in at some point. However, it will be much lower prices than they are currently at. the video is an hour long lecture from 2 years ago of Chanos thinking on China. I think when all the commercial real estate projects complete in China there will be 5 square feet of office space for every person in China. Over capacity on a massive level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

[churchill]

Excellent Russell Napier interview on the long view...S+P to 400

Great reset coming. Emerging market currency will be the place to take shelter.

I m not so sure about this above statement. I actually think that the emerging market money flows could reverse and we could see a weakening of these currencies as they have been effectively a carry trade beneficiary. I would have liked John Authers to ask him about gold and the USD in this environment he describes, although a clue is that he says commodities will be hit hard. Does he expect a falling S+P, falling T-Bonds, and a falling USD? Or will the USD rise in this situation. I think we are at an incredibly important juncture right now on what will happen next. A lot of careful thinking of all the possibilities is required.

Thoughts anyone?

I think the idea of buying a series of out of the money put options on US T-Bonds is very attractive at this juncture. The Lehman TLT etf is going to have cheap options today.

My view is that until the Fed starts to raise Interest rates and even without further QE - markets , Commodities will stay firm with the USD weaker against the Euro , where Trichet will be pushing rates up slowly /

If the fed indicates higher rates this could be the start of a correction - but there seems to be no sign yet - and perhaps - as a few are already pushing for further QE - this may be some time out - With the housing market and unemployment the US needs to keep interest rates lower for longer and so a weak USD ?

And I have heard these predictions for the last 2 years - so better to wait for further signs from the Bernanke ?

Edited May 18, 2011 by churchill

[teletiger]

Great reset coming. Emerging market currency will be the place to take shelter.

There will be no shelter. One can only hope that a deflationary event comes first allowing us to dump paper and buy PMs somewhere near the bottom. (or anywhere really) Not for nothing was Zero Hedge well named.

Regards.

[Naam]

My view is that until the Fed starts to raise Interest rates and even without further QE - markets , Commodities will stay firm with the USD weaker against the Euro , where Trichet will be pushing rates up slowly.

JC Trichet has not much time to raise rates. he will leave end of september and Mario Draghi will take over.

[churchill]

My view is that until the Fed starts to raise Interest rates and even without further QE - markets , Commodities will stay firm with the USD weaker against the Euro , where Trichet will be pushing rates up slowly.

JC Trichet has not much time to raise rates. he will leave end of september and Mario Draghi will take over.

Do you think there will be a change in policy ? As they consider the Euro as the 2nd Reserve Currency - I would have thought more of the same /

[Naam]

Draghi won't be alone making policies Churchill. but i agree with you that we will see soon higher short term rates in the near future based on prevailing inflation rates, but nothing dramatic, the yields for mid and long term maturities will be, as was always the case, decided by Mr Market.

[RedFxTrade]

Excellent Russell Napier interview on the long view...S+P to 400

Great reset coming. Emerging market currency will be the place to take shelter.

I m not so sure about this above statement. I actually think that the emerging market money flows could reverse and we could see a weakening of these currencies as they have been effectively a carry trade beneficiary. I would have liked John Authers to ask him about gold and the USD in this environment he describes, although a clue is that he says commodities will be hit hard. Does he expect a falling S+P, falling T-Bonds, and a falling USD? Or will the USD rise in this situation. I think we are at an incredibly important juncture right now on what will happen next. A lot of careful thinking of all the possibilities is required.

Thoughts anyone?

I think the idea of buying a series of out of the money put options on US T-Bonds is very attractive at this juncture. The Lehman TLT etf is going to have cheap options today.

I'm not sure I can comment on the S&P call but everybody is going to talk their book so when it comes to this stuff one has to take a few steps back.

About the options, I don't know what volatility is like in the options you mentioned but I probably would not be buying volatility right now. I would guess that vol is rich at the moment. Anything out of the money is going to have a big fat premium in it and could get crushed in volatility terms. Just my 2 cents going into the summer.

Thanks Jcon for the advice. The theory behind the play is kind of a binary "bet"...If it works, then I make a lot, if I m wrong, then I lose little. The implied Vol on the option is near 12 month lows, although it has come off its lows. One put option is priced at 0.94 cents today, while the ATM options are priced around $13. The expiration for the option I m looking at is January 2013. So its a deep out of the money, binary bet, preparing for the nuclear situation if T-Bonds really tank. Not sure if I will play it yet. I still think bond yields could be lower at the end of the summer than now. Lets see:)

[churchill]

Gordon Brown for IMF - Hope Not !

From 1999 Brown presses IMF to sell gold

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brown-presses-imf-to-sell-gold-1092942.html

[RedFxTrade]

Gordon Brown for IMF - Hope Not !

From 1999 Brown presses IMF to sell gold

http://www.independe...ld-1092942.html

God no!!!. What a disaster he is. On a brighter note, at least it would be another perfect 100% correct contrarian indicator to add to the Bernanke Contrarian Trade

[12DrinkMore]

Gordon Brown for IMF - Hope Not !

From 1999 Brown presses IMF to sell gold

http://www.independe...ld-1092942.html

Wonder if we'll ever find out if he was bailing out a couple of banks at the time.

"Golden Brown the Bank Bailer"

[jcon]

...

I have been a poster on here in the past, just signed in with my twitter account....

However - this appeared on his twitter .. So ??

'RonPaulNews Ron Paul News

Ron Paul: Sell the Government's Gold http://bit.ly/lCZYbZ | LRPT'

Wait, does this mean RedFxTrade is Ron Paul?

Ron, about those put options, I get what you mean about the 'binary bet' - but I would think that there is something else out there that could make more money than those particular puts - I'm just guessing, maybe OfficeMax puts (and calls for that matter) for when they go out of business Borders (BGP)-style? Just my 2 cents Mr. Paul.

[121Advice]

George Soros dumped $800M worth of Gold this week, so I'm guessing that's a good indication of where its value is moving...

If HE has sold the majority of his funds holding - I think others should take note. He has been rather successful over the years!

[jcon]

George Soros dumped $800M worth of Gold this week, so I'm guessing that's a good indication of where its value is moving...

If HE has sold the majority of his funds holding - I think others should take note. He has been rather successful over the years!

If Soros dumped any gold, I assure you it wasn't this past week.

That's free advice.

[RedFxTrade]

...

I have been a poster on here in the past, just signed in with my twitter account....

However - this appeared on his twitter .. So ??

'RonPaulNews Ron Paul News

Ron Paul: Sell the Government's Gold http://bit.ly/lCZYbZ | LRPT'

Wait, does this mean RedFxTrade is Ron Paul?

Ron, about those put options, I get what you mean about the 'binary bet' - but I would think that there is something else out there that could make more money than those particular puts - I'm just guessing, maybe OfficeMax puts (and calls for that matter) for when they go out of business Borders (BGP)-style? Just my 2 cents Mr. Paul.

, funny. You could very well be right. I don't often focus on individual stocks, more macro stuff. Although I did short Deer Group a few months back around $13, and it got down to $7, got out around...was from a very low area of volatility. Got out around $8.

Had a look at OMX. Scary plunge in the chart in recent weeks. I take you are in there? Still nothing to stop that plunging down to previous support and lower as you say. Relatively high level of short interest in that stock, and a 3 day short interest ratio, though I m not sure what the trend is in that area. Cheers.

P.S I m not selling my personal gold, but the I think the Government should sell theirs...I will buy

[121Advice]

You're right and that should have read "this quarter".. Along with a $5m stake in iShares Gold Trust.

The Wall Street Journal's 'hints' of large sell-offs were obviously correct.

Many investors have been biting their nails since Christmas!

Equities UP Gold DOWN.. Same old, same old...

A 'double dip' could boost gold short term though?

[jcon]

Hi RedFx, no I don't trade any US-equities but I was just mentioning OMX because I see it as potentially having a similar fate as BGP (which was sad, because I like Borders - I don't really care for OfficeMax, however....).

Good trade on Deer, congrats.

What about LinkedIn? I want to barf over the fact that it hit 120+ today, that's just unreal. Are we in another tech bubble (social/work/whatever network bubble)? Anyway I'd like to see the options series for LinkedIn!

Instead of being Ron Paul, I was kind of hoping for the return of ''bingobongo'' but alas we couldn't be so lucky. I'd also like to know where Abrak is - though I think I've said this before (or maybe I thought it) I imagine him counting his money on a yacht somewhere after making bank in 2011 and TV is the last thing on his mind. I don't think you are ''Gambles'' because you don't sound so, well.... Gambles-ish. So I'll stick with Ron Paul until I find something better for you Best of luck Ron!

[Naam]

I don't think you are ''Gambles'' because you don't sound so, well.... Gambles-ish.

"Gambles" was my first thought, but i'm not sure