Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

China Is Now Top Gold Bug

'China's investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tons in the first three months of the year, outpacing India's modest rise to 85.6 tons, the World Gold Council said in its quarterly report on Thursday. China now accounts for 25% of gold investment demand, compared with India's 23%.'

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704816604576333080229436072.html

[churchill]

Had the last one stopped ?

The Next Big Gold Rally Has Started

'The big driver for a gold rally will be the Federal Reserve, which Russell predicts going into hyperdrive as soon as the stock market stops rising.

But more powerful than anything else will be the trend of the stock market. If the bull market dies here or even if it corrects severely, the pressure will fall heavily on the administration and the Congress.

For this reason, I expect the rest of the year 2011 to be "wild and wooly." I expect government lies and propaganda to reach a crescendo. I'm bracing myself for a parade of surprises. Politicians love power and perks. But to keep those two, they must also keep their jobs. Therefore, coming up, I expect an extreme in dirty politics and internecine political battles. The year 2011 should wind up as a banner year for political and economic propaganda, all lies and bull-shit.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-gold-150-moving-average-2011-5#ixzz1MsyaEMhb

[Naam]

Chinese investors are also focused on using gold as a protection against rising consumer prices. Unlike paper currencies, gold retains its value when prices increase.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704816604576333080229436072.html

hard evidence for this claim is that inflation did not exist for nearly two decades between 1979 and 2008

[RedFxTrade]

Had the last one stopped ?

The Next Big Gold Rally Has Started

'The big driver for a gold rally will be the Federal Reserve, which Russell predicts going into hyperdrive as soon as the stock market stops rising.

But more powerful than anything else will be the trend of the stock market. If the bull market dies here or even if it corrects severely, the pressure will fall heavily on the administration and the Congress.

For this reason, I expect the rest of the year 2011 to be "wild and wooly." I expect government lies and propaganda to reach a crescendo. I'm bracing myself for a parade of surprises. Politicians love power and perks. But to keep those two, they must also keep their jobs. Therefore, coming up, I expect an extreme in dirty politics and internecine political battles. The year 2011 should wind up as a banner year for political and economic propaganda, all lies and bull-shit."

Read more: http://www.businessi...5#ixzz1MsyaEMhb

Its hard to argue with that. In response to your first post I wonder if the Chinese realise the "status" of their US debt so to speak, and they are encouraging everyone in China to start buying silver and Gold. I remember reading the Chinese admin was encouraging citizens to buy metals. It could be a case of...ok we squandered alot of your savings in a bad investment (the US), start buying gold and silver to prepare for the consequences?

The arguments against QE were strong about a month or so ago. While stocks and assets stay high and go higher there will be opposition to QE, but rest assured the S+P starts falling, economy starts weakening as yesterdays data once again showed horrendous data will there be much opposition to QE3?I doubt it, if anything they will crying out for it. Add to that the election year also. Interesting times.

[Naam]

The year 2011 should wind up as a banner year for political and economic propaganda, all lies and bull-shit.

what's new? haven't the politicians bullshitted us always?

[RedFxTrade]

Chinese investors are also focused on using gold as a protection against rising consumer prices. Unlike paper currencies, gold retains its value when prices increase.

http://online.wsj.co...0229436072.html

hard evidence for this claim is that inflation did not exist for nearly two decades between 1979 and 2008

Hard Evidence? I guess it depends on your definition of inflation...Perhaps that inflation was not exhibited in consumer goods for fundamental reasons of global wage arbitrage, productivity gains due to technological advancements and out sourcing of labor to developing countries. But it certainly was apparent in real estate and stock prices, but the government thinks this is "good" inflation for some strange reason. If you define inflation purely as consumer prices as governments like to do for expedience, then you have a point. But tell someone born in 1985 who tried to buy a house in the last few years whether or not there had been inflation Prices are not inflation. If you look at the 5 doubling s of total credit market and money supply growth over the last 40 years you will see that there was always one or more asset classes working itself into bubblicious territory somewhere in the world. Inflation has been alive and well since the 1970s, but that money will flow to where the fundamentals are most favourable, those places happened to be real estate and stocks which were starting out in 1980 from a low valuation base.

On the other hand the fundamentals were not favourable for about twenty years in commodities. Take corn for example. See the chart with the stocks-to-usage ratio attached. You will notice the ratio was at its peak at the end of the 1970s, beginning of the 1980s meaning that supply was plentiful, and corn prices came down as over that period as there were more compelling asset valuations elsewhere. Compare that ratio from 1997 onwards. The corn stocks to usage ratio had dwindled to all time lows, meaning that with incremental increases in demand for corn and a lower supply, less planting the fundamentals for corn were improving. This is why the money spigot and credit growth was not flowing into stocks so much since 1999 due to high valuations relative to other assets, but instead to where the fundamentals were/are ripe, ie one example is Corn, or if you like the full commodity spectrum.

WE happened to have a period of the good old "inflation" over the last twenty years. The type the government likes, as they can get away with their huge spending plans due to an increase in the tax revenue from the asset inflation (stocks and real estate are easier to tax than food) Now government tell us we are moving into bad inflation, not realising the cause of both are one and the same thing, namely credit and money, and out of control deficit spending. One forgets that government deficit spending is also inflationary. The only way to decide where the money flows is to look where the fundamentals are ripe. Just to add, Corn made a record high last month. A chart of corn shows a huge rise over the last 10 years. But you will notice the stocks to usage ratio is at an all time low. Bull markets do not end with no inventories, they end with a swelling grain pit so to speak. High corn prices anyone?

[Naam]

Hard Evidence? I guess it depends on your definition of inflation...Perhaps that inflation was not exhibited in consumer goods for fundamental reasons of global wage arbitrage, productivity gains due to technological advancements and out sourcing of labor to developing countries. But it certainly was apparent in real estate and stock prices...

can you spell i-r-o-n-y or s-a-r-c-a-s-m Red?

my posting "no inflation" was to place nonsense such as "Unlike paper currencies, gold retains its value when prices increase" into the category 'ad absurdum'.

Edited May 20, 2011 by Naam

[churchill]

The year 2011 should wind up as a banner year for political and economic propaganda, all lies and bull-shit.

what's new? haven't the politicians bullshitted us always?

Yes and THEY are the problem - not the bankers - as always ... "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

[RedFxTrade]

Hard Evidence? I guess it depends on your definition of inflation...Perhaps that inflation was not exhibited in consumer goods for fundamental reasons of global wage arbitrage, productivity gains due to technological advancements and out sourcing of labor to developing countries. But it certainly was apparent in real estate and stock prices...

can you spell i-r-o-n-y or s-a-r-c-a-s-m Red?

Opps Sorry, I didn't realise.

[flying]

I don't think you are ''Gambles'' because you don't sound so, well.... Gambles-ish.

"Gambles" was my first thought, but i'm not sure

My guess was that guy....cant remember his name now but he had the GW Bush avatar flipping the bird

Other than that & on topic....Gold looking like it has resumed the lead vs silver

glad I swapped when i did...... still a bit more in reserve though ....just in case

[flying]

What about LinkedIn? I want to barf over the fact that it hit 120+ today, that's just unreal. Are we in another tech bubble (social/work/whatever network bubble)?

Had the exact same thought about the tech bubble rerun when I saw that

Brought back memories

[flying]

Richard Russell - Silver Shorts Liable to Get Trampled

With gold and silver near the $1,500 and $35 area respectively, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had this to say, “GOLD -- The chart below shows daily gold over the last two years. During that period gold has respected its 150-day moving average, which is the blue line that you see on the chart. Over the last two years gold has tested its 150-day MA six times, and each time gold has held above the 150-day MA -- and then rallied to new highs.”

“The latest action shows gold holding well ABOVE its 150-day MA and consolidating. Frankly, I thought gold was in for another test of its 150-day MA, but I may have been too pessimistic. Gold does not seem to want to test its MA (so far) this time, and that's a bullish factor. As I write this morning June gold is up over 19 points, and there seems to be urgent buying in gold.

We now know that there has been a dramatic reversal in world central bank thinking, and instead of selling gold as they have been doing, world central banks, on balance, are buying gold. We know that China, Russian and many Asian countries are urgently increasing their gold-to-reserves ratio.

Rising gold is also putting pressure on the silver shorts. I've heard that there is now more silver shorted on the COMEX than is available in physical silver.

A few weeks ago, shorting silver was considered a "no-brainer." In this business, if you run with the crowd, you're liable to get trampled to death.

An increasingly large percentage of America's population is approaching "retirement age."...As I've said before, the Federal Reserve was created secretly by bankers. The Fed is owned by bankers, and it was created for banks and bankers. Bonuses at the big banks are currently larger than ever as are dividends. In the meantime, Americans of retirement age have run head first into the brick wall of zero returns.

...So from now on, you can expect a veritable avalanche of "good times talk" out of Washington. The employment figures will be skewed to the administration's advantage, the inflation figures will be a lie, the benefit that the government has bestowed upon us will be exaggerated. And the Bin Laden victory will be touted to the high heavens. Hey, "at last we're safe."

But more powerful than anything else will be the trend of the stock market. If the bull market dies here or even if it corrects severely, the pressure will fall heavily on the administration and the Congress.

For this reason, I expect the rest of the year 2011 to be "wild and wooly." I expect government lies and propaganda to reach a crescendo. I'm bracing myself for a parade of surprises. Politicians love power and perks. But to keep those two, they must also keep their jobs. Therefore, coming up, I expect an extreme in dirty politics and internecine political battles. The year 2011 should wind up as a banner year for political and economic propaganda, all lies and bull-shit.”

Edited May 21, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

look out below ! I think a view many here share but , as in the last Euro Crisis USD up Gold up and so Gold may be one of the few places funds flow ... ??

'Long View: Storm clouds over markets

May 19 2011 Felix Zulauf, former head of asset management at UBS, warns that storm clouds are gathering over the markets. He discusses with John Authers, head of Lex, his grim outlook: that Europe faces a double dip, China is slowing, bonds "look awful" and an overheating commodities sector will be hurt badly. He was interviewed at the CFA Institute Annual Conference in Edinburgh. (10m 30sec)'

http://video.ft.com/v/950633944001/Long-View-Storm-clouds-over-markets

[Naam]

one and a half year ago Zulauf's opinion was that China was on the brink of a recession and forecasted that crude oil and copper will drop 50% when crude was priced at $72 dollars a barrel and copper $6,100 a ton.

today crude trades at ~ $100 and copper short of $ 10,000

next Guru please!

addendum: i too believe in future stormy clouds, perhaps not as bad as 2008 but... that's the reason why i believe in diversified cash as much as i can afford.

Edited May 21, 2011 by Naam

[RedFxTrade]

look out below ! I think a view many here share but , as in the last Euro Crisis USD up Gold up and so Gold may be one of the few places funds flow ... ??

'Long View: Storm clouds over markets

May 19 2011 Felix Zulauf, former head of asset management at UBS, warns that storm clouds are gathering over the markets. He discusses with John Authers, head of Lex, his grim outlook: that Europe faces a double dip, China is slowing, bonds "look awful" and an overheating commodities sector will be hurt badly. He was interviewed at the CFA Institute Annual Conference in Edinburgh. (10m 30sec)'

http://video.ft.com/...ds-over-markets

In my experience Gold is a leading indicator that "something" is not quite right. In other words successful speculators/investors will see in advance and disseminate from current information available what the outcomes will be, and buy gold sending the price higher.. Once a crisis, or part crisis hits, the acute phase if you like Gold can actually fall in this part due to the already pricing in of that said event, think 2008. A rising gold price is usually a warning shot for what appears to be some "unknown" future event. To be honest though I wish Gold would correct more to give another good buying juncture.

[churchill]

'To be honest though I wish Gold would correct more to give another good buying juncture.'

This is what many have been saying since $1000 expecting a good correction to get in - But it never seems to correct enough /

I think that the bubble will start when all those that have missed the boat decide that they cannot afford not to have gold as part of their portfolio and buy whatever the price - and the key then is to take some profit as prices rise /

Edited May 21, 2011 by churchill

[RedFxTrade]

'To be honest though I wish Gold would correct more to give another good buying juncture.'

This is what many have been saying since $1000 expecting a good correction to get in - But it never seems to correct enough /

I think that the bubble will start when all those that have missed the boat decide that they cannot afford not to have gold as part of their portfolio and buy whatever the price - and the key then is to take some profit as prices rise /

I reckon you ll be right. CNBC will spinning gold stocks like they were Yahoos and Petfood.com in 2000 before the end of it. I m try to accumulate small amounts but often over time, but it would be nice to get a plunge where you could buy a nice amount from a nice spring board.

[churchill]

'To be honest though I wish Gold would correct more to give another good buying juncture.'

This is what many have been saying since $1000 expecting a good correction to get in - But it never seems to correct enough /

I think that the bubble will start when all those that have missed the boat decide that they cannot afford not to have gold as part of their portfolio and buy whatever the price - and the key then is to take some profit as prices rise /

I reckon you ll be right. CNBC will spinning gold stocks like they were Yahoos and Petfood.com in 2000 before the end of it. I m try to accumulate small amounts but often over time, but it would be nice to get a plunge where you could buy a nice amount from a nice spring board.

Look at PM stocks they are still pricing gold a lot lower and are just now bouncing off recent lows - If gold holds here or goes higher they are in for a big bounce .

check ..

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/May/20/My-favorite-way-to-buy-gold-today

[churchill]

Looks like a base may be forming in silver

Silver - Commitment of Traders

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver-commitment-of-traders.html

and another article on miners - For Gold Miners, Big Nuggets of Hope http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204038504576329570794106008.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

[churchill]

We are certainly living in interesting and historic times ..

I never thought i would see the day that Zimbabwe would turn their noses up

at the US dollar.

But then again i was in Myanmar 2 weeks ago and they

clearly wanted Thai baht from me rather than accept US dollars

RBZ urges gold-backed Zim dollar

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-5127-RBZ+urges+gold-backed+Zim+dollar/business.aspx

long time talked about but perhaps closer than we think - Multi-Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - Silver to be monetized in Mexico this year /

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/18_Hugo_Salinas_Price.html

[RedFxTrade]

'To be honest though I wish Gold would correct more to give another good buying juncture.'

This is what many have been saying since $1000 expecting a good correction to get in - But it never seems to correct enough /

I think that the bubble will start when all those that have missed the boat decide that they cannot afford not to have gold as part of their portfolio and buy whatever the price - and the key then is to take some profit as prices rise /

I reckon you ll be right. CNBC will spinning gold stocks like they were Yahoos and Petfood.com in 2000 before the end of it. I m try to accumulate small amounts but often over time, but it would be nice to get a plunge where you could buy a nice amount from a nice spring board.

Look at PM stocks they are still pricing gold a lot lower and are just now bouncing off recent lows - If gold holds here or goes higher they are in for a big bounce .

check ..

http://www.stockhous...-buy-gold-today

Cheers CH. Nice chart at the bottom of the article. The long and short, or the long in this case,haha, is that GMs are cheap, and Gold stocks in general. I bought Fronteer Development Group around $6, and sold out after the spike higher after they were subject to a take over bid, but would certainly like to get more involved in some these little gems again. Will have to take a look at some of the ETFs.

[midas]

We are certainly living in interesting and historic times ..

I never thought i would see the day that Zimbabwe would turn their noses up

at the US dollar.

But then again i was in Myanmar 2 weeks ago and they

clearly wanted Thai baht from me rather than accept US dollars

RBZ urges gold-backed Zim dollar

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-5127-RBZ+urges+gold-backed+Zim+dollar/business.aspx

long time talked about but perhaps closer than we think - Multi-Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - Silver to be monetized in Mexico this year /

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/18_Hugo_Salinas_Price.html

Well when I read this about Mexico, jcon's prediction that the US dollar

would " shine like a rock star " reminded me of the one hit wonder

rock stars that fell into oblivion after making one single and then ended up on LSD

Edited May 22, 2011 by midas

[jcon]

We are certainly living in interesting and historic times ..

I never thought i would see the day that Zimbabwe would turn their noses up

at the US dollar.

But then again i was in Myanmar 2 weeks ago and they

clearly wanted Thai baht from me rather than accept US dollars

RBZ urges gold-backed Zim dollar

http://www.newzimbab...r/business.aspx

long time talked about but perhaps closer than we think - Multi-Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - Silver to be monetized in Mexico this year /

http://www.kingworld...inas_Price.html

err yeah because Zimbabwe and Mexico are powerhouses....... top tick anyone?

[RedFxTrade]

A new week is upon us and I m going to offer a technical perspective on the gold market and have a look at some potentialities as a guidance over the coming months.

The following chart is a weekly chart of Gold with my trend following system I use in the currency markets imposed on the chart, or rather originally developed for the currency markets but can be used in any market and on any time frame.

The main blue line is a measure of the medium to longterm trend. A potential buy signal is initiated upon a weekly close above the blue line. The last BUY signal was around $850 way back in November 2008. The line acts as an excellent level of support in uptrends and as a resistance point in down trends. In any long term trend the best way to leverage it is a process called pyramiding which basically just means you only add to an existing position when the previous position is in a profit or at the very least not at a loss. This means that as the trend develops over time, you can maximize your optimal price entry. It also means you will make considerably more money as adding to winning positions in a strong up trend can lead to fantastic gains. The lower indicator on the chart is an indicator I developed to capture the smaller cycles within the larger trend cycle. When the line closes above zero it is a BUY signal. I have highlighted the Blue vertical lines to show where these buying instances were. When the indicator at the bottom of the chart is RED it means the market is in a corrective phase within the larger cycle as long as the weekly close is till above the main trend line. It is best to wait until the cycle turns up/blue before initiating new positions.

This week the indicator has turned up again with Gold putting in a nice higher close on Friday. So this week as per the system means we could be heading for the next target at $1650.

However, with any mechanical system it is always best to add a level of discretion and a caveat or two. The next chart shows a daily chart of gold with quite a lot going. The caveat I want to add is that we are in a seasonal period of weakness for Gold until around August/September. However with problems brewing in the Euro area the next weeks could see a spike up to the $1650 area with a rising USD. Then we could get the correction back down to the green rectangle box area.

The gray horizontal bars on the chart with the pink line shooting out is a Volume By Price indicator over the last 22 days and 100 days. This indicator shows the level of volume at $20 increments in Gold. The Pink line is the price area that the highest volume for that period occurred at. These act as areas of support and resistance and Fridays close above the line for the last 22 days shows that the bulls are looking to take control of this market again. A close above $1527 would likely confirm the bias.

The last 100 day high volume area was around the $1450 area. It is no surprise that this area of high volume is where gold broke out of resistance to the upside. So a good possibility for the next few months is a move up to $1650 then we can assess things from that area. Then a potential correction down to the green rectangle box area where we have a confluence of rising channel support, previous areas of high buying support as shown by the volume indicator, and an area of support at what was previous resistance. A correction down to the $1450 and a period of consolidation into July/August and the consequent end of the period of seasonal weakness should act a spring board area for price to make its move up to $1850 area by Christmas.

The guidance will be the trend on the daily and weekly time frame. The trend is your friend after all. It may just happen that we get a failure to break above the previous high and go straight down to the consolidation area at $1450, and then the move could come from$1450 all the way to $1850.

From an event point of view, problems in the EU and what appears to be weakening economic conditions could see the market anticipate QE 3 by August/September, the ECB ramping up bond buying, and a mis pricing of interest rates globally at this time will mean that rates will stay zero bound keeping real interest rates negative. This IMO opinion will be what is the catalyst for gold to move higher. Add into that a couple of black swans that are not really black swans, examples could be geo political events, Icelandic Ash cloud, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest, political tensions surfacing in the EU and even the US.

[midas]

We are certainly living in interesting and historic times ..

I never thought i would see the day that Zimbabwe would turn their noses up

at the US dollar.

But then again i was in Myanmar 2 weeks ago and they

clearly wanted Thai baht from me rather than accept US dollars

RBZ urges gold-backed Zim dollar

http://www.newzimbab...r/business.aspx

long time talked about but perhaps closer than we think - Multi-Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price - Silver to be monetized in Mexico this year /

http://www.kingworld...inas_Price.html

err yeah because Zimbabwe and Mexico are powerhouses....... top tick anyone?

amazing how small an acorn is but what it eventually grows into is what matters And don't leave this place out

Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BACK_TO_GOLD?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-22-15-23-20

Edited May 23, 2011 by midas

[Naam]

Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BACK_TO_GOLD?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-22-15-23-20

the usual rubbish from across the ocean. nobody will be able to walk into a WinnDixie or Publix in Salt Lake City and pay for his steaks and vegetable with a Krüger Rand or a Maple Leaf.

next!

[midas]

Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BACK_TO_GOLD?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-22-15-23-20

the usual rubbish from across the ocean. nobody will be able to walk into a WinnDixie or Publix in Salt Lake City and pay for his steaks and vegetable with a Krüger Rand or a Maple Leaf.

next!

" How poor are they who have not patience! What wound did ever heal but by degrees."

Shakespeare

this plan has only just been implemented this month so how can anyone possibly predict

which businesses in Utah will be happy to accept a Krüger Rand or a Maple Leaf

in two or three months time ?

Next!

[midas]

Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BACK_TO_GOLD?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-22-15-23-20

the usual rubbish from across the ocean. nobody will be able to walk into a WinnDixie or Publix in Salt Lake City and pay for his steaks and vegetable with a Krüger Rand or a Maple Leaf.

next!

actually Naam I am quite astounded by your scepticism when it is quite obvious

many Americans are now understandably concerned and frustrated about the

relentless erosion of their currency. so why shouldn't something like this work?

They certainly have the need to do something proactive period

Anyway, it seems that they have other plans in Utah as to how this will all work :-

" Craig Franco hopes to cash in on it with his Utah Gold and Silver Depository, and he thinks others will soon follow.

The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings."

http://wnyt.com/article/stories/S2123239.shtml?cat=10104

By the way I don't think there is Publix in Salt Lake City

[Naam]

this plan has only just been implemented this month so how can anyone possibly predict which businesses in Utah will be happy to accept a Krüger Rand or a Maple Leaf in two or three months time ?

anybody with a fair capability of rational thinking can predict that paying with Gold and/or Silver is history and will never be implemented again. that does of course not apply to a few freaks and freaky shop owners in Salt Lake City who might argue for an hour or two how many fractions of an ounce of gold should be exchanged for a selected amount of goods and then find out that it is impossible to make a certain amount of a precious metal available for said goods by cutting a Krüger Rand into many tiny or a Maple Leaf into a few pieces.

[Naam]

The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings.

i'd rather trust an existing bankster then a nobody Franco